Polling thread the pre-election edition

Tue, 2009-09-15 00:52

Parkdale High Park

miles wrote:

nanos and ipsos show bad times for libs under iggy. now both polls could be the 20 when stated as 19 times out of 20 but what if they are accurate

Nanos does not show bad times for the Liberals. The number of seats won is more a function of the margin one party has over all others than it is of absolute numbers. So note that while Nanos shows the Tories at 37%, close to what the media has decided is majority support, it also has the Liberals at 34%. Winning 34% of the vote would represent a better result for the Liberals than either 2006 or 2008. Ignatieff could easily win 30-40 more seats - putting him in a good position to defeat Harper again shortly, so as to win the next election.

Tue, 2009-09-15 00:56

#53

Stockholm

Exactly. THis crap about how 38% gets you a majority is garbage. It depends on how many parties there are and what the gap is between the biggest and the second biggest party. I'll tell you one thing 38% sure as hell won't give you a majority if one other party has the other 62%!

Tue, 2009-09-15 01:22

#54

Debater

NorthReport wrote:

Don't be so sure Doug. Unless the NDP dispalce the Liberals in a lot of ridings, Harper is looking like he could pull off a majority.

Liberals though can read this and weep.

Back in the Quebec game

But recent poll numbers show the Conservatives have clawed their way back into contention in Quebec, or at least to the threshold of support they need to be the competitive federalist

alternative to the Bloc in 418, where seats start to fall very efficiently to the Conservatives once they cross 20% of the vote province-wide. Only two Conservative MPs come from outside 418, Christian Paradis, the Quebec lieutenant from right next door in the Monteregie, and Lawrence Cannon, the foreign affairs minister from Pontiac in the Outaouais region.

At one point last spring the only safe Conservative MPs were Maxime Bernier and a player to be named later. But over the summer, there has been a cautious revival of hope in the Conservative camp, as their poll numbers have gradually edged up to the critical 20% mark.

A recent Nanos poll for La Presse had the Bloc at 37.3%, the Liberals at 32.3% and the Conservatives on the bubble of where they need to be at 19.3%, with the NDP falling back into single digits at 8.9%.

http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-paper/story.html?id=1990980

In other words, the Conservatives are in a distant third place and are doing worse than they were at this time last year while the Liberals are doing much better.

And from what I can tell, that is a poll from earlier in the month before Harper's latest remarks about Quebec separatists.

L. Ian MacDonald is really beginning to lay on the Conservative spin, and you seem to be lapping it right up, NR.

Tue, 2009-09-15 01:27

#55

ghoris

Stockholm wrote:
Exactly. THis crap about how 38% gets you a majority is garbage. It depends on how many parties there are and what the gap is between the biggest and the second biggest party. I'll tell you one thing 38% sure as hell won't give you a majority if one other party has the other 62%!

I suspect the "38%=majority" is a holdover from the 1997 federal election when Chretien won a slim majority with 38.4% of the vote. As you point out, it's the gap between the winner and the other parties that counts - in 1997 Refoooorm was second with a shade over 19% while the Tories ran third with a shade under 19% - in other words, a 20-point gap between the Libs and their next closest competitors. Although occasionally flukey results can occur (eg Bob Rae winning a majority in 1990 with just 37.6% and only a 5-point lead over the Liberals), the Tories probably need to be in the high 30s/low 40s *and* beating the Liberals by a good 12 or 13 points before a majority is in the cards, particularly as they waste a lot of votes piling up huge majorities in Alberta and rural BC and Saskatchewan, while their vote in Quebec is usually spread too thin to translate into significant seats.

Tue, 2009-09-15 08:20

#56

SCB4

Doug wrote:

No party can likely win a majority so long as the Bloc continues to do well in Quebec because in that case, the path to a majority is through winning almost all of Ontario. The Liberals aren't about to dislodge the Conservatives from non-Northern rural Ontario and the Conservatives aren't about to rout the Liberals in Toronto.

But the Conservatives could dislodge the Liberals from their remaining suburban seats outside of Toronto (905 area code and the southwest Ontario cities) and that would be enough for them to get a majority. If Nanos and the other polls look as promising for the Tories as the latest Ipsos that will likely put an end to opposition clamouring for an election in 2009.

Tue, 2009-09-15 12:50

#57

Debater

NorthReport wrote:

RedRover wrote:

So Ipsos puts our New Democrats 12 percent and NorthReport's response is...

NorthReport wrote:

Another nail in the coffin for the Ignatieff Liberals.

I think I found a clip of you from the last campaign North....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oO5soX3iLtk&feature=fvw

You have lots of fight in you my friend.

Whenever the personal insults start flying you know your adversaries have already lost.

There was no personal insult, NR. Red Rover was pointing out that the NDP poll numbers have been very low lately in some of the polls and you have not bothered to address that. You always skip over that point in your mile-long lectures.

Why not answer Red Rover's question: what do you think of the low poll numbers for the NDP?

Tue, 2009-09-15 13:02

#58

Sean in Ottawa

1) End of summer polls are virtually meaningless

2) The NDP starts many campaigns low as it does not spend resources to stay in the forefront outside of elections

3) The NDP should have some benefit running against a right wing Liberal

4) Most polls are meaningless until a campaign begins

5) If an election is called the party causing it will take a hit-- it is yet to be clear which party that might be as there may be some debate over that but there is no certainty that the NDP or the Liberals are in the clear on this

6) Some of these polls are weighted with questions that front end issues-- so if you ask any question before the voting intention question you can bias the result-- people pay to have this done on purpose. Pollster do not care for their reputations until we ar ein an election cycle and proof of accuracy is coming.

I would wait for a time to see -- that said I am not a fan of an election now-- we should all wait for the next budget and bring the government down on that assuming it is the usual Con fare-- an election in less than a year on a bill nobody is concerned with is not a good idea.

All parties should be nervous of an election right now-- any of them could come up badly hurt for many different reasons.

Tue, 2009-09-15 13:23

#59

Stockholm

Apparently the latest Harris Decima poll is virtually unchanged from a week ago and says CPC - 34%, Libs - 30%, NDP 15%, Greens 10%, BQ - 9% (which adds up to 98 but why quibble).

Of course its a foregone conclusion that at least half of that green vote will melt away and almost all those people are basically undecided between Liberal and NDP.

We shall see. Keep in mind that the polls we are seeing no were in field last week or earlier at a time when all the attention was on the Tories and Liberals who were each running tons of ads on TV while the NDP was out of the picture - and nothing is more deadly in the short term than being invisible.

I'll be curious to see what the polls have to say later this week or next week since one thing for sure - the NDP's tactics this week have made Layton the centre of attention for a couple of news cycles - and as the old saying goes - there is no such a thing as "bad" publicity!

Tue, 2009-09-15 13:24

#60

remind

Thats funny debator, Nanos has the NDP down to 15% from 18.7%, at the first of August, which is in fact within the margin of error exactly.

Ipsos always has the NDP low, when compared to other polling firms, in the same time line, which a statement in itself. Angus reid has them at 18%.

Having said that the polls do show a decrease in the NDP support from this time last year. While they show the Liberals as being up about 1%. So I guess Iggy is perceived to be 1% better than Dion.

Tue, 2009-09-15 13:25

#61

Sean in Ottawa

I was with you to the last comment-- there is such a thing as bad publicity -- especially in politics but I don't think the NDP has done badly this week.

Tue, 2021-11-23 21:52

#62

jfb

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Tue, 2009-09-15 14:06

#63

Sean in Ottawa

You misread my post--

1) I disagreed with the comment that there was no such thing as bad publicity.

2) My comment that Layton did not do badly this week was related to my saying not all publicity is good- just to make sure nobody would think I was referring to Layton's publicity this week.

Why be so touchy? There are a lot of posts much, much more off topic than mine was -- do you want someone to judge if each and every post you make fits their concept of what "the issues" was? Especially since this is a poll thread -- you can't derail a conversation that is already derailed.

Hope the rest of your day goes better.

Tue, 2021-11-23 21:52

#64

jfb

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Tue, 2009-09-15 20:49

#65

Debater

remind wrote:

Thats funny debator, Nanos has the NDP down to 15% from 18.7%, at the first of August, which is in fact within the margin of error exactly.

Ipsos always has the NDP low, when compared to other polling firms, in the same time line, which a statement in itself. Angus reid has them at 18%.

Having said that the polls do show a decrease in the NDP support from this time last year. While they show the Liberals as being up about 1%. So I guess Iggy is perceived to be 1% better than Dion.

The NDP has been in the low teens (13-15%) or as low as 12% in most of the recent polls. There have been very few lately that has had the NDP in the high teens. And this isn't something I am inventing - if you don't believe me watch the Power Play broadcast from a couple nights ago where Craig Oliver, Jennifer Ditchburn and Greg Weston all point out that the NDP has low poll numbers. Obviously there is some truth to this or you wouldn't have most of the reporters mentioning it.

If the NDP had very good poll numbers right now, isn't it more likely that Layton would want to pull the plug on Harper?

Tue, 2009-09-15 22:15

#66

NorthReport

It doesn't matter if Layton wants to pull the plug now as the Bloc is supporting the Cons. That's all Harper needs to stay in power.

Wed, 2009-09-16 00:23

#67

Debater

You're still refusing to respond to the question about the low NDP poll numbers, NR. Your silence on the numbers is an answer in itself though.

Wed, 2009-09-16 00:33

#68

Stockholm

The poll numbers for the NDP right now are the same or even a bit better than they were on the eve of the writ being dropped for the 2008 election. If I had the time I could dig up endless postings by the usual Liberal fart-catchers from early and mid-2008 gloating about how the NDP was going to lose official party status and get fewer votes than the Green party. I wonder what happened?

I don't actually think that any of the parties make snap decisions (or at least i hope they don't) based on every little gyration in the polls. We have seen three elections in the past 5 years and they all featured endless ups and downs like a yo-yo during the course of the campaign and the final results bore little resemblance to how things looked when the election was called.

All though 2007 and early 2008, the Liberals under Dion kept propping up Harper even though most polls actually kept showing a dead heat between the Liberals and Tories. If the Liberals actually believed those polls, they would have pulled the plug on the government countless times during that period - but obviously they didn't.

Tue, 2021-11-23 21:53

#69

jfb

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Wed, 2009-09-16 08:54

#70

NorthReport

Debater wrote:

You're still refusing to respond to the question about the low NDP poll numbers, NR. Your silence on the numbers is an answer in itself though.

Yea, everyone should complain about the NDP forciing Harper to cough up about 1 billion dollars in additional assitance for the unemployed. Right on.

ARS, which was the most accurate pollster in the last election, has the NDP at 17%, which is not too shabby, and it looks like the Liberals are heading back into Dion land with their latest polling numbers. Ignatieff's superb leadership skills has the Liberals dropping 3%, back down to under 30%. This is within 3% of what Dion received in the last election. Harper must really be enjoying the Liberals choices in leadership since Chretien resigned. Even with most of the msp behind them, to end up with such low polling, it must be considered quite disheartening results for the Ignatieff Liberals. I wonder why that is.

Wed, 2009-09-16 08:56

#71

NorthReport

NorthReport wrote:

Debater wrote:

You're still refusing to respond to the question about the low NDP poll numbers, NR. Your silence on the numbers is an answer in itself though.

Yea, everyone should complain about the NDP forciing Harper to cough up about 1 billion dollars in additional assitance for the unemployed. Right on.

ARS, which was the most accurate pollster in the last election, has the NDP at 17%, which is not too shabby, and it looks like the Liberals are heading back into Dion land with their latest polling numbers. Ignatieff's superb leadership skills has the Liberals dropping 3%, back down to under 30%. This is within 3% of what Dion received in the last election. Harper must really be enjoying the Liberals choices in leadership since Chretien resigned. Even with most of the msp behind them, to end up with such low polling, it must be considered quite disheartening results for the Ignatieff Liberals. I wonder why the Liberals aren't cuting it with the Canadian voters any more.

Wed, 2009-09-16 09:38

#72

Mr.Canada_ts

I suspect that the NDP numbers will rise again. It seems the longer Ignatieff is leader of the LPC the more his numbers drop. Canada is getting to know Ignatieff and I don't think Canada likes what it sees.

Wed, 2009-09-16 09:56

#73

Stockholm

Let's just always keep in mind that there are two Canada's. The Canada that is inside the "bubble" which includes everyone working on parliament hill, thepolitical pundits and (I'm sorry to say) people like us who post on political blogs. Then there is the Canada that is outside the bubble (ie: the 99% of the population who are not inside). I often have to remind myself that the dialogue that we all have is more often than not completely disconnected from what "real people" talk about or care about.

Ultimately, I'm less concerned about what Andrew Coyne and Chantal Hebert think (as much as it can make an interesting read) than I am with what people at the water cooler think.

Wed, 2009-09-16 10:02

#74

NorthReport

You got it Stock.

The number of times people like Herbert, Coyne, and Simpson get it so wrong, you would think it might be a little embarassing for them.

Wed, 2009-09-16 10:21

#75

Uncle John

They are paid to get it wrong

Wed, 2009-09-16 10:33

#76

NorthReport

Uncle John,

I believe that is one of the most accurate statements we have seen here for some time.

Wed, 2009-09-16 10:40

#77

madmax

Debater wrote:

The NDP has been in the low teens (13-15%) or as low as 12% in most of the recent polls. There have been very few lately that has had the NDP in the high teens. And this isn't something I am inventing

Again, what is a HIGH poll for the NDP?

And while you pull polls at the cellar of NDP support, those numbers are bookended by 19% and the recent 17% of Angus Read. Perhaps you can write a letter to Greg Weston and they can write a new story. Or are they merely trying to frame a story that isn't there to shape public opinion?

Wed, 2009-09-16 10:43

#78

NorthReport

What must be very disheartening news for the Liberals is what has happened to them in Ontario:

Quote:
The Conservatives held a commanding 12 point lead over Michael Ignatieff's Liberals in Ontario.

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/696390

Wed, 2009-09-16 11:27

#79

Stockholm

In his blog column today at the Globe, i think Brian Topp hits the nail on the head:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/brian-topp/

"

More time to recharge will be useful if used well -- it will quickly translate into a larger election budget; a stronger slate of candidates (all free from unhelpful YouTube postings... right, comrades?); stronger riding associations; better research; a better tour.

Conceivably, time will also work for the government. The Great Recession may be easing. Perhaps Mr. Harper will get the credit for the stimulative effect of the U.S. federal budget, run by a progressive Democrat.

But it is at least equally possible that time will NOT work for the government. Mr. Harper and his party are out of step and out of touch with a significant majority of the people of Canada. In tough economic times, we have re-learned, Canadians are reluctant to rock the boat. But as the economic crisis eases they may be more willing to consider a change of direction, toward government more to their liking.

Mr. Harper's government might make that easier by committing some egregious mistake that will underline what an alien plant this government is in Canada's political culture. As we saw last fall, they make those mistakes when they are overconfident. Perhaps the events of this week will lull them into a similar mood.

As for the red team, it would seem that the more Canadians get to know Michael Ignatieff, the less they like him. One of the eternal verities that experienced political ministers in the Saskatchewan CCF-NDP teach new staffers is this: never get in the way of an opponent who is destroying himself. There is no obvious reason, as things stand today, not to let that process continue to do its virtuous work."

Wed, 2009-09-16 11:59

#80

remind

Brian Topp a Freemason?

Wed, 2009-09-16 12:03

#81

KenS

don't get it.

please illuminate.

[weak] pun there.

Wed, 2009-09-16 12:20

#82

Sean in Ottawa

janfromthebruce wrote:

my stick with the issue was also a misread - it had to do with Layton (not you) sticking to the issue - EI - and not get sideswiped by the liberalcon show.

So I am not touchy or anything - and I didn't mean anything towards you at all. Sorry about the misunderstanding - and my day is going fine - hope we are still friends.

Ok of course-- I can't help but notice that we are usually on the same page anyway-- sorry for misreading yours as well...

Best to you--

I am wondering if Layton is applying more discipline recently-- he seeems to be making better decisions about what to speak on and leaving less room to be edited by others into a corner he did not inhabit. If this is a new trend it will bear well in an eleciton.

The party will have to define itself as different from the Liberals in this electiona s it must in most. Normally this is much more difficult when the NDP sit beside the Liberals in opposition and easier whilst theya re both in government. Ignatieff, much more than Dion, is however making this task much easier and there is already a strong impression out there that while Dion was left in the Liberal Party, Ignatieff is to the right. (I think this is exaggerated somewhat in the case of Dion and accurate in the case of Ignatieff but at least partially true nonetheless.) We cannot expect to go through a campaign without this issue being out there especially since the Liberals themselves as well as the NDP will find it useful as they are clearly angling for Tory-Liberal switchers rather than NDP-Liberal switchers this time out. It is a sound strategy for the Liberals as well-- after all they can work with the NDP in governemtn but must take seats form the Cons to get the chance so a seat taken fromt he Cons has much greater value for them than one from the NDP. Also Ignatieff running to the right is more credible than him trying to convert to being a progressive.

Tue, 2021-11-23 21:53

#83

jfb

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Wed, 2009-09-16 12:59

#84

Stockholm

Here are the details of the Angus Reid poll:

http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2009.09.16_fedpolE...

The regional numbers are actually pretty good for the NDP in BC, Ontario and Atlantic - where we are where we were in the last election or slightly higher.

The Prairies are a disaster (though bear in mind the tiny sample sizes there)

For the Liberals, Ontario is a catastrophe, while Quebec is pretty good news.

Wed, 2009-09-16 13:12

#85

Sean in Ottawa

Debater-- I often agree to disagree with you and have defended you here in the past.

However, here you have posted a provocation regarding the NDP poll numbers and have had several replies including from myself but instead you keep targeting NR into responding directly to you-- people on a board like this respond to what they feel like and often many of us do not respond if someone else has already expressed what we wanted to say. There is no need to go after a person for a response so aggressively-- in this case I think it was personal trying to rub his nose in the numbers and it borders on what I see as trolling -- which is provoking without any other purpose-- since you already had an answer from people who generally are of similar thinking as NR you have no need to harass him further on this. There is no new information you can get so your badgering him to respond to you has no purpose other than provocation so it is trolling. You have a lot to contribute here, debater with an opinion that is often in the minority-- please do not spoil it by just provoking where you can have no other purpose.

Wed, 2009-09-16 13:14

#86

bekayne

madmax wrote:

Debater wrote:

The NDP has been in the low teens (13-15%) or as low as 12% in most of the recent polls. There have been very few lately that has had the NDP in the high teens. And this isn't something I am inventing
Again, what is a HIGH poll for the NDP?

And while you pull polls at the cellar of NDP support, those numbers are bookended by 19% and the recent 17% of Angus Read. Perhaps you can write a letter to Greg Weston and they can write a new story. Or are they merely trying to frame a story that isn't there to shape public opinion?

The 19% was from Angus Reid's previous poll-so, in other words, it's off the table now. The polling range is now 17% to 12%.

Wed, 2009-09-16 13:17

#87

SCB4

The fact that the Conservatives are polling so well in Ontario (41%), a province that has been economically devastated by the recession, makes me wonder if the mounting woes of the McGuinty's Liberals, HST, eHealth, OLG....may be sticking to their federal counterparts. That spells nothng but trouble for Ignatieff.

Wed, 2009-09-16 13:18

#88

Sean in Ottawa

Stockholm wrote:

Here are the details of the Angus Reid poll:

http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2009.09.16_fedpolE...

The regional numbers are actually pretty good for the NDP in BC, Ontario and Atlantic - where we are where we were in the last election or slightly higher.

The Prairies are a disaster (though bear in mind the tiny sample sizes there)

For the Liberals, Ontario is a catastrophe, while Quebec is pretty good news.

These polls are distored by the do you want an election and blame component. We'll have to wait for that to settle down to see where we are. The NDP weakness in MB and Sask is chronic and needs attention. The party might want to consider a series of regional "chiefs" and give them more limelight particularly in regional media.

Wed, 2009-09-16 13:18

#89

SCB4

edited to remove double post

Wed, 2009-09-16 13:19

#90

Stockholm

YOur point is taken, but I think its fair to say that the gloating NDP-haters among the punditocracy seem to want to dwell on the Ipsos numbers because it suits their "let's trash the NDP" story line - even though its clearly an outlier. The other polls from Angus Reid and Harris Decima (and we shall what Ekos has in store for us tomorrow) have the NDP in its typical non-election 15-16-17 range - but of course mentioning those numbers would rob them of the sensational story they want to tell - so why let the facts get in the way?

Wed, 2009-09-16 13:44

#91

Centrist

Caveat Emptor when looking at regional samples in a national poll of a 1,000 sample size.

In their polls, Nanos breaks down their 1,000 sample size by region as follows:

Atlantic: 102

Quebec: 263

Ontario: 292

Prairies: 203

BC: 142

From Bill Tieleman's blog:

Quote:
"Anything less than a [b]300 sample[/b] ... should be viewed with a great deal of skepticism," says the president of Strategic Communications, 24 hours newspaper's official pollsters.

http://billtieleman.blogspot.com/2008/02/polling-results-often-inaccurate-due-to.html

That's why wonky numbers result for the regionals from pollster to pollster. Even Canada's largest province, Ontario, falls under that 300 sample size threshold in a 1,000 sample size.

Something to keep in mind!

Wed, 2009-09-16 13:55

#92

Stockholm

"The NDP weakness in MB and Sask is chronic and needs attention."

Actually, its not particularly "chronic". The Harris-Decima polls out yesterday had NDP support in Man/Sask at 35%! The fact is that in a typical national poll of 1,000 people only about 65 will be in Man/Sask - so the numbers tend to fly all over the place. All its takes is calling a few too many exchanges in south Winnipeg and few fewer exchanges in north Winnipeg (or vice-versa) and the apparent level of NDP support across the region can either be halved or doubled!

In any case, I don't think its a function of the NDP not having enough high profile reps from the Prairies. Pat martin, Judy W-L and recently Nicky Ashton have been some of the NDP backbenchers who are in the news the most. Obviously, the situation in Sask. will be helped once we have an MP there - and I'm sure that our fellow babbler Noah Evanchuck will rememdy that WHEN he gets elected in Palliser!

Wed, 2009-09-16 14:03

#93

Sean in Ottawa

When I am referring to the NDP weakness in the prairies as chronic-- I am actually referring to election results over several years. Sask particularly as MB is ok.

Wed, 2009-09-16 14:25

#94

Mr.Canada_ts

Doug. The Tories are polling a full 12 points ahead of the Liberals in Ontario. Harper and the Tories are at 46% in Ontario currently. If IGnatieff doesn't find a real issue and soon to fix his image I don't think he'll be able to recover.

Wed, 2009-09-16 14:26

#95

Stockholm

Of course Alberta is also a Prairie province and right now we have an MP there - something that the CCF NDP was never able to do under JS Woodsworth, MJ Coldwell, Tommy Douglas, David Lewis etc... and only once under Broadbent.

It would be nice to win a seat in Sask. and i'm confident that we will, but I would equally like to win a seat in the 905 belt around Toronto which has about twice the number of seats.

This obsession with Sask. reminds me of Serbian nationalists who have this obsession with controlling Kosovo even though its 95% ethnic Albanian - all because in the 15th century there was some historic battle fought there.

Wed, 2009-09-16 15:55

#96

NorthReport

Quote:
The 19% was from Angus Reid's previous poll-so, in other words, it's off the table now.

Wed, 2009-09-16 16:51

#97

remind

17% in AR's most recent poll, is within the margin of error from their last one, which had the NDP at 19%.

Obsession with Sask? pffft, there is only a handful of progressives left in the province. ;)

Wed, 2009-09-16 16:57

#98

NorthReport

._.

Wed, 2009-09-16 21:31

#99

Mr.Canada_ts

Layton gets his message out incredibly well. I'm not worried about his numbers at all, they'll go back to where they were as more people hear Ignatieff speak. Everytime he opens his mouth the Liberals seemingly drop in the polls. He just doesn't reasonate with the voters at all.

Thu, 2009-09-17 00:12

#100

Frmrsldr

Debater wrote:

It will be interesting to see the next set of polls in Quebec after Harper's latest video about the separatists came out. Will the Conservatives begin dropping again?

Chantal Hebert said on CBC a couple nights ago that she watched the video during lunchtime on french television earlier in the week with a group of francophones and said they were quite upset to say the least. She predicted Harper may lose more seats in Quebec as a result.

Good for Harper. Pardon my language, but the guy is a self destructive fuck up.

Tue, 2021-11-23 21:54

#101

jfb

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Polling thread the pre-election edition

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