ST Paul's by-election part 4

Unfortunately I missed the debate.  I'm glad to hear Julian performed well and I hope LTJ is right that he is the primary challenger instead of the irritating Levy.

The photos of Hudak and Levy together on her website made me laugh. Hudak looks positively funereal - not sensing a lot of warm, mutual affection there.

http://votelevy.ca/photos/

I also attended last night's meeting. Here are a few impressions.

First, as in many all-candidate meetings, there were probably less than 10% of votes up for grabs as most people already had their minds made up and came as cheerleaders.

Second, the liberals were definitely the loudest with a significant cheering section for Levy who was not a very impressive speaker. All rhetoric. Not sure if there were more liberals there than any other party, but they were really screaming. When Hoskins walked in the door it was as if he were a returning, conquering hero. Trudeaumania? He's got that look of confidence and a bit of arrogance even as he seemed like a decent enough person. 

Third, there was a lot of cheers from the conservative bleachers for Levy, the Libertarian and the Freedom Party candidates who all ran on a mostly single issue anti-tax and anti-spending message. Levy kept nodding her head when the Libertarian spoke. 

Fourth, noteworthy that the right wing no longer squawks about cutting services even if that is their intention. They talk about "less government" and reducing waste and inefficiency (nothing really new with that meme). 

Fifth, I thought Heller performed pretty well (although I liked his nomination speech better) and had a good base of supporters there (although we could have probably been more productive dropping literature to uncommitted voters homes). I thought he was best when he wasn't talking about the HST and he showed some passion. 

Sixth, Hoskins invoked that breeding ground of liberal wannabes as an endorser - the Daily Bread Food Bank - as a foil to the anti-HST message. Hoskins spoke quite well. His pro-HST argument was somewhat persuasive for those who may not be sure about it. In any case, someone's gotta be less than fully truthful about the math as the discrepancies are so wide between the pro and con. 

Finally, the meeting, while packed, was not very well run as the chair allowed Turmel to seriously disrupt it for a good 30 minutes. 

Some clips from the nomination meeting:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2cLwTcZ_1w

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SCB4 wrote:

The photos of Hudak and Levy together on her website made me laugh. Hudak looks positively funereal - not sensing a lot of warm, mutual affection there.

 

http://votelevy.ca/photos/

He's not the old guy, right? Is he the robotic-looking younger guy? Also, that slideshow goes on forever-literally.

Looks like their attending a funeral

Given signage and all, I'd ramp the PC down and the NDP up...

I really doubt this will be a PC gain. My prediction:

Liberal: 41% PC: 32% NDP: 18% Greens: 7% Random others: 2%

I think this article does a decent job summing up why a lot of voters, even if unimpressed with the McGuinty Liberals, Hoskins will probably have a bit of a personal vote, particularly to non-partisan "progressive" swing voters:

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/toronto/archive/2009/09/14/comm...

This line in particular:
"While Ms. Levy was harping away endlessly at Mr. Miller (sorry, "His Blondeness"), Dr. Hoskins was saving babies in Sub-Saharan Africa."

Polunatic2 wrote:

While I don't put a lot of stock in using signs as a final barometer of what will happen on e-day, I've walked two polls now (west of Bathurst) and have seen very few Levy signs. It feels like Heller has more signs this time than last time but that's not a very scientific observation. Hoskins had quite a few signs. Nor have I received a call from Levy's campaign although I have from H & H. Toronto tories may rely more on central campaign advertising and may not be very good at running strong ground campaigns given the demographics of their supporters who wouldn't want to get their shoes dirty. 

ETA 5 minutes later: I just heard a Levy radio ad on CFRB. This confirms my hypothesis that there is no ground campaign. "She" must have lots of money to run ads during prime time which span the entire GTA. 

East of Bathurst, I'd say the signs are evenly split Liberal and Tory south of St Clair, and largely Tory north of St. Clair.  I know Levy's campaign has at least hit the apartment buildings in that area as I've been canvassed.  I don't remember this much PC signage in the 3 elections I've been in the area for.

East of Yonge is Liberal territory, and the part of the riding which borders on Bob Rae land.

You'd think the Tories would do well there, with all the million dollar houses, but they don't.

Heller's team's been talking to tenants as well.

While Hoskins keeps insisting rent won't be taxed people are seeing through this falsehood.

Metro Tenants says: "Tenants in Ontario rely on stable rents as a matter of housing security.  Any rise in rents will have a harsh impact on struggling families, and will result in an increase in the eviction rate in the province.  Even if landlords are not able to pass their HST costs on to tenants, they can still raise rents when tenants move out, resulting in higher rents for anyone who moves to a new apartment.

 For these reasons, the Federation of Metro Tenants' Associations supports FRPO's call for exempting rental housing providers from the HST.  We also call for an exemption for utility costs when paid directly by tenants. We would be happy to discuss the issue with you further.

"

SCB4 wrote:

Was in the riding for a meeting @ Wychwood Barns this morning. Walked east from St. Clair West subway and down Christie. Mostly Hoskins signs with a minor Heller sign presence and one or 2 for the Green candidate. No Levy signs, save for those businesses that commit to signs from all parities to avoid offending a potential winner.

The residential side streets around there have a lot of Heller signs.

Hoskins wins but with slightly under 40 percent of the vote.  Levy second with above 30, Heller at around 17 and Greens getting 10 or 11

What would be considered a successful result for the NDP - given that it is an unwinnable riding. The NDP got 16% last time, what would be a good result?

I would be happy if the NDP cracked 20% in that riding. I would be ecstatic if the NDP came in second and that is not out of the question since I'm hearing that the Levy campaign has been a big flop.

I think Liberal voters are going to stay home today. Going to be closer than people think.

boomerbsg wrote:

I think Liberal voters are going to stay home today. Going to be closer than people think.

I agree. I think the falling poll numbers for the federal Liberals in Ontario are more attributable to a growing dissatisfaction with the McGuinty gov't than Ignatieff's inept performance.

I haven't looked at all the messaging in great detail, but given that the HST is both a totally regressive tax AND a tax that is a joint venture of the provincial Liberals and the federal Conservatives - there is clearly an opening for the NDP. I don't know whether they have exploited that opening or not.

Incidentally, setting aside the messaging issue, I am VERY impressed with the look of Julian Heller's literature. The stuff is very attractive and professional looking and should be a good prototype for the ONDP to use in the next election.

Even if the Conservative jewish vote does come out for Levy it won't matter. They don't have enough votes to sway the riding. They were pretty pro-Tory in the last federal election. The CJPAC worked hard for the federal Tory candidate and it didn't make a difference. In the federal election before that, Peter Kent, who is staunchly pro-Isreal, was not able to beat Bennett.

Starting to hear reports that voter turn out is very low in some key Liberal polls. Always a bad sign for the incumbent party. Can anybody confirm???

stock i think it is 9pm that they close

libs should win by 10%

any single digit win is a loss for them

When I voted post-work, it was dead.  Three voters for eight polls.  Mind you I was only there for 20 minutes

Now I see the link to the fresults page works on the French version of the Elections Ontario site - but not the English.