Yet another Polling Thread

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I posted that poll in what I thought was the current thread, and came to the exact same conclusion.

I think the latest pile-on against the Liberals will take a few weeks to work its way through the national numbers, as well.

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Stockholm wrote:

The latest Ekos is out:

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full-report-november-12.pdf

Tories down another point 36.6%, Libs unchanged at 26.6% and NDp up half a point at 16.8%. Of course they also have the Green party at a fictitious 11.2% nationally - but after their average 3% in the four byelections this week - we know for a fact that this is just an inflated function of flawed polling methodology. Once we cut them down to 5%, I suspect that the actual numbers are more like Tories 38%, Libs 28%, NDP 18.5% or thereabout.

Looks like the Conservatives have peaked and are beginning to decline away from majority territory and back into minority level.

That appears to be the main trend this month.

My memory about that shifting Green support is that its NDP first, but Liberals not far behind, and Cons in very distant third.

That could mean around 50% for the NDP, but I think just stating like that tends to be misleading.

That said, pure anecdotal observation tells me that this varies HUGELY from riding to riding- more than the variability the other parties get. For example, there are lots of Conservative ridings or where the Cons are strong where the GPC seems to be able to poach a lot of those votes... and not only where the Cons are virtually guaranteed the seat [like Alberta]. The GPC also seems to generally do very poorly in NDP or NDP contending seats [notable exception of Ottawa Centre]. Conversely, it does very well, occasionaly ahead of the NDP, in places like suburban 905 where the NDP is not remotely in contention. And I have a personal hunch that the GPC is more able to get or keep soft Liberal votes even where it is just as apparent as in the comparable 'NDP seats' that the Liberal MP/candidate needs those votes to win.

janfromthebruce wrote:

Actually Stock I wouldn't give the Green vote to the cons at all - they are well known as being anti-environment. Considering that the libs are falling and in various polls when they ask who they trust most on the environment, and the NDP is always way ahead on that question, one might be more prone to give the NDP the lion share of that Green vote. That would be that the NDP is actually polling in the early 20s.

Let's be realistic here - the NDP is not likely to be polling in the 20's.

It may be the case though that a plurality of the Green vote will indeed go NDP, although Green voters are made up of people from across the political spectrum - NDP, Liberal AND Conservative.  Remember that in the last Ontario election, most of the increase in the Green vote was actually from unhappy PC supporters who didn't want to vote for Tory, McGuinty or Hampton.

The Green vote is also declining in Ottawa Centre as Paul Dewar becomes more entrenched as our incumbent M.P.

I noticed that too.

KenS wrote:

That is, if my bootstrap observation is correct that the high number of voters who go from the NDP to the GPC is very concentrated in ridings where the NDP is not a contendor. As to, comparatively speaking, going from the Liberals to the GPC even if the Liberals are contendors.

cf. Edmonton vs Calgary.

Given that a political nickname for Edmonton is Redmonton, I'd say yes.

[b]Latest Nanos:[/b]

Con: 38% (-1.8%)

Lib: 28.8% (-1.2%)

NDP: 17.9% (+1.3%)

BQ: 9.3% (+0.4%)

Grn: 5.9% (+1.3%)

Undecided: 19%

Extrapolated from the "Vote Profile" in this poll from today:

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-S09-T397.pdf

Also referred to in John Ivison's column of late this afternoon on Full Comment, entitled "Ignatieff slips closer to Dion territory".

The sample size for a telephone poll of 1,000 is 3.2%, but ARG's poll is an online poll and you aren't supposed to quote a margin of error on an online sample because it isn't derived from a totally random sample of the population. (I'm not saying its less accurate, just that strictly speaking you cannot describe a margin of error on an online poll)

In fact their record has them being more accurate.

If this trajectory continues, at some point we will see IL SORPASSO* - where the NDP overtakes the Liberals for the first time in a poll.

*In Italy, IL SORPASSO is often used to describe the day that the per capita income in Italy overtook the UK about 15 years ago.

bekayne wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

If this trajectory continues, at some point we will see IL SORPASSO* - where the NDP overtakes the Liberals for the first time in a poll.

*In Italy, IL SORPASSO is often used to describe the day that the per capita income in Italy overtook the UK about 15 years ago.

They were tied at 21% in an Angus Reid poll during last year's election.

In one poll - which turned out not to be an accurate predictor of voting intentions since on election night the Liberals beat the NDP by a large margin.

What I am more interested in seeing is whether the Conservatives will drop in the next poll with the new controversy over the torture scandal and their refusal to do anything about it.

Gotta like these Ontario numbers

In Ontario, 39 per cent of decided voters said if an election were held today, they would cast their ballots for the Conservatives (down two points since October); the Liberals would attract 29 per cent support (down three points); the NDP 21 per cent, up eight points; and the Greens eight per cent, down six points.

Shows that Horwath instincts on the HST and other issues have been bang on as well.

I believe the ARG was Nov. 16-18 and the Ipsos was Nov. 17-19. You can't get more recent than that.

I'd wonder how much these numbers are a byproduct of the byelections as well...

Bookish Agrarian wrote:

Gotta like these Ontario numbers

  In Ontario, 39 per cent of decided voters said if an election were held today, they would cast their ballots for the Conservatives (down two points since October); the Liberals would attract 29 per cent support (down three points); the NDP 21 per cent, up eight points; and the Greens eight per cent, down six points.

 Shows that Horwath instincts on the HST and other issues have been bang on as well.

This is the trend that will take the NDP to IL Sorpasso if sustained - ARG had the NDP strong in BC, which is consistent with provincial NDP polling here and the NWC by-election result, but weak in Ontario.  If the IR trend is confirmed and the Lib vote in Ontario starts bleeding to the NDP, then we're starting to talk about 50+ seats in the next general and passing the BQ and even the Libs if they continue to slide.

ARG also has the Greens very high and we know that is classic "Astroturf" polling  it won't show up at the ballot box and Jack is well positioned to win that vote with his strong climate change positioning and Iggy championing the tar sands and joining Harper to block the NDP's climate change bill.

I'm really keen to see the next CROP or Léger poll from QC to see if the Rochelau NDP momentum is sustained on the Island of Montreal - i.e. is the NDP becoming the federalist alternative to the BQ in Montreal?

I guess averaging the regionals from the two polls would tell us something. I suspect that the folks at Ipsos must be pretty embarrassed about that absurd Green number in Atlantic Canada. I wonder if they got the decimal point in the wrong place and they meant 2.1%. If there is one place in Canada where I can assure you, Green party support is virtually non-existent - its in Atlantic Canada - esp. now that Elizabeth May has picked up her toys in Central Nova and left nothing behind. 

In BC, if you combine the two polls you would get Tories at 40.5% (down 4% from last election) and NDP at 29.5 (up 3.5 from '08) and the Liberals still pushing up daisies at 18% (down 1%) and the Greens (up 3% at 12) - apart from the fact that we know that Green support is as WCL so aptly described - pure astroturf - and will never materialize - that trend for BC would confirm the pattern we saw in the NWC byelection where a 3% NDP margin on election night last year turned into a 14% blow out!

That's true Debater.  But the trick is to figure out what strategy is required to pull that off.  Thus far the Liberals haven't found the formula, and they have a lot of pretty smart strategic minds in that party.  I just think the world view they're all operating inside now has limited usefulness going forward, and they haven't found a new way of looking at things yet which is more relevant to their current situation.

It's not a new poll but is this a new West Coast publication?

NDP inches closer to Grits in new poll

After taking repeated hits from the right flank by the Harper Conservatives, it now appears that the NDP are moving in to attack Michael Ignatieff's Liberals on the left flank, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Canwest News Service and
Global Television.

In a political pincer attack, the NDP have charged ahead to 19% support nationally while the Liberals have retreated to 24% support, a new low for the Grits under Michael Ignatieff.

A relatively poor showing in the recently-held by-elections underscores the problems that opposition leader Michael Ignatieff is having resonating with the public.

Recent attacks on the government for partisan appointments and stimulus hand-outs, as well as allegations that Canadian Forces knowingly handed over Afghani detainees to certain torture, have failed to propel the faltering Liberals.

http://www.vancouverite.com/2009/11/21/ndp-inches-closer-to-grits-in-new...

What is the point posting polls if we do not believe them? You can't take them selectively and say well I like that number but not the other number-- if you already have in your head what you want to believe then a poll won't inform--

There is a range for polls-- and people find them entertaining-- kinda like the astrology section in the paper, great until you start believing in it and then you are certifiable.

The only thing polls can tell you is an established trend over a long time-- like the Liberals are below the Cons and the NDP is in third place. If you get all excited as some did last week about the poll with the NDP and Liberals 4 points apart you'll only feel foolish when the next poll comes out (or you should feel foolish). That's why I downplayed the impact of that poll in another thread.

I have seen the NDP really on a move-- twice and it looks different. Once was in 1987-1988 when it went way up to around 40%. The other time was coming back up to traditional territory from single digits after Layton took over. These were things you could hear, see and feel not only in the polls but on the streets, in conversations. This last poll-- that's another thing.

I'll admit, a smaller trend just recently was observable: the NDP decision not to force an election went down well and the party reversed its declining support to around where it was before the last election.

Any other excitement is the product of people taking their entertainment too seriously or being sucked in to a media trying to manipulate that there is a story when there is not or trying to shove a stick in the eye of the Liberals (which may have its own entertainment value but can't be taken seriously either). We will wake up tomorrow and those New Dems who want something big to happen will still have their work cut out-- will still need to come up with a communications plan and platform that work. Nothing has changed yet but you won't need a single poll to tell you when it has.

Now we can go back to reading the polls and astrology pages for entertainment- ok?