continued from here as there are still election results to come in
By-elections this fall Part 3
Mon, 2009-11-09 14:50
#1
remind
By-elections this fall Part 3
Mon, 2009-11-09 15:12
#2
oh yeah, gonna head out to help out the second i get free.
if you montreal folks want to help out, especially those of us who speak the french, give a call over 514 995 2522.
despite an enormous run of good luck the left has been having in montreal here (amir, projet mtl, mulcair), this one should not be ndp winnable. the only reason they have a shot is low turnout and the bad publicity of the bloc candidate. really, every ndp vote is like a little handfull of gold, so folks really ought to get out if they can. i think you can even phone in remotely, if you francophones out there feel like doing so from elsewhere in the world.
Mon, 2009-11-09 15:15
#3
Good idea..... to continue the thread here.
Stockholm peaked my curiousity with this post on Green Party Candidate that is the weakest candidates on the environment compared to the other parties.
not to be outdone here are the backgrounds of the Nova Scotia By Election Candidates.
This is an irony of a riding. The Conservative is from the Public Sector. The LPC and NDP are Farmers and when you think the NDP would get the addictions counselor, that person is from the Green Party with the least ability to win.This time, the Conservatives are running elementary school principal Scott Armstrong, the NDP candidate is wild blueberry farmer Mark Austin, the Liberal candidate is dairy farmer Jim Burrows and the Greens are running addiction counselor Jason Blanch.
Definitely a flip flopping of stereotypical roles on who is most likely to run for which party.
It appears that in the East and West the Green Party candidate has the weakest environment credentials.
Isn't it ironic?
Mon, 2009-11-09 15:33
#4
There was also an article recently about how of all the candidates running in all four ridings - not one single one is a lawyer!
Mon, 2009-11-09 15:37
#5
remind
wow, what are the odds of that I wonder...
Mon, 2009-11-09 16:55
#6
OK, it seems the Conservatives are up to their usual tricks again, this time in Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup.
Someone has set up a bunch of robo-calling in favour of the Bloc candidate, but it wasn't the Bloc that did it (they don't use that technology), and it is a very tentative woman's voice calling and asking people to vote for the Bloc, but then sending them to Christiane Gagnon's constituency office FAX number for further information.
The Conservatives have to be the prime suspects here, because they were also robo-calling in Hochelaga (although they weren't doing it very well there ... phoning the newspaper's office, for example); and this now makes them the leading suspect in my view for the suspicious robo-calling that went on in Saanich-Gulf Islands last time.
I suppose it's too much to ask people to behave ethically.
Mon, 2009-11-09 16:57
#7
So how does the ban on publication of results work now?
Are we not allowed to post the NS and Quebec results here until the BC polls close?
Which is 7:00 PST?
Does anyone know if there is a ban on even local broadcasting of results? IE, not even local radio?
Mon, 2009-11-09 16:59
#8
Since its now a repeat, resources really have to go into investigation and possible prosecution on this robo calling stuff.
Mon, 2009-11-09 17:25
#9
No-one can publish any results until the polls close in B.C. at 7 PM local-time there. Which is 10 PM eastern, and 11 PM your way.
Mon, 2009-11-09 17:40
#10
One of the things these by-elections indicate for the BQ is that they are no longer the power they once were in Quebec - they are still the top party, but they don't win ridings with the large margins they did when the party was at the height of its glory.
So many BQ MP's have retired or left to run for other positions that the BQ hardly has any MP's left from its original 1993 group of 54 MP's. Both Paul Crete and Real Menard have put Gilles Duceppe in an awkward position by running off to do other things. Without its long-term incumbents, the BQ is having to work harder to keep ridings that it used to easily win.
Mon, 2009-11-09 17:41
#11
Thank god for that law! If I knew the Bloc happened to be loosing in Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup I might change my vote from them, to NDP or something, in New Westminster-Coquitlam-Port Moody.
P.S. Elections Canada, this is not a posting of results. It's merely hypothetical, so don't sue anyone.
Mon, 2009-11-09 17:49
#12
In this day and age with the internet and tweeting and smart phones etc... its totally absurd and anachronistic to still cling to this ridiculous rule about going to such extraordinary lengths to prevent any results from being publicized until all polls have closed.
Because of the way that polls effectively close at the same time in the whole country but gtwo hours earlier in Atlantic Canada, what difference would it really make to let people know how Atlantic Canada voted during the last hour that polls are open in the rest of the country. There are too few seats in Atlantic to be all that indicative anyways - and only the most hard core political junkies would go to great lengths to find out how the vote went.
I find it VERY hard to imagine that if the results from CCMV were allowed to trickle in while there was still a couple of hours left to vote in Quebec and BC, that there would be ANYONE in New Westminster who is going to say "Jeez, i just heard on the radio that the NDP is leading in that there byelection in Nova Scotia, now i feel so demoralized that I won't bother to go out and vote Conservative!!"
Mon, 2009-11-09 17:59
#13
Amazing. Just watched the Power and Politics panel on the by-elections. Only the CBC could assemble a panel that says every party but the Liberals have something to lose tonight. I'd love to win a whole bunch of these seats ... just to see Peter Mansbridge have to spit out the words and hopefully choke on them.
Mon, 2009-11-09 18:08
#14
Well, to be fair, on a certain technical level its true that the Liberals are the only party with nothing to lose. The BQ has something to lose because they currently hold two of the seats. The NDP has something to lose because it currently has one of the seats and the Tories have something to lose because even though CCMV is kinda-sorta a non-Tory seat - it is regarded as a defacto Tory held seat since casey was a Tory and it has a long Tory history.
So, the Liberals have nothing to lose if they don't WIN any of these ridings - but they do have something to lose if they have a really poor showing in the popular vote and are third or fourth everywhere.
Mon, 2009-11-09 18:09
#15
One interesting piece of news though. Rosemary Barton is reporting that turnout is quite low in Hochelaga, which is one of the preconditions for the NDP to win (the other being that some of the Liberals switch to vote NDP to keep the Bloc out).
Mon, 2009-11-09 18:20
#16
x
Mon, 2009-11-09 18:22
#17
Is that you voting, V.Jara? ;-)
Mon, 2009-11-09 18:43
#18
Lol. I was going to post that the CTV panel backed Stockholm's picks until I saw this excellent summary of the pundit calls. Seems like virtually all the pundits agree with Stockholm 
Mon, 2009-11-09 19:00
#19
I guess everyone's seen that Québec Solidaire MNA Amir Khadr went canvassing with Jean-Claude ... there's a photo album on JC's Facebook page.
http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=120846&id=12517777450&ref=mf
Mon, 2009-11-09 19:24
#20
CCMV polling stations are now closing. Heard turnout was pretty low.
Maybe some birdie will fly by here and mention what the air is like in Nova Scotia.
Mon, 2009-11-09 19:33
#21
Here are my predictions:
Hochelaga: BQ 41%, NDP 28%, LIB 19%, CPC 7%, GRN 4%
MIKR: BQ 42%, CPC 26%, LIB 18%, NDP 10%, GRN 3%
NW-C: NDP 41%, CPC 35%, LIB 17%, GRN 7%
CCMV: CPC 39%, NDP 31%, LIB 21%, CHP 4%, GRN 4%*
* I narrowed the Tories to an 8-point lead from my earlier 12-point prediction.
Mon, 2009-11-09 19:33
#22
remind
great looking foward to indercenable hints :D
Mon, 2009-11-09 20:11
#23
So, the Liberals have nothing to lose if they don't WIN any of these ridings
Like the song says:
(You know, you come from nothing - you're going back to nothing.
What have you lost? Nothing!)
Mon, 2009-11-09 20:16
#24
I guess everyone's seen that Québec Solidaire MNA Amir Khadr went canvassing with Jean-Claude ... there's a photo album on JC's Facebook page.
http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=120846&id=12517777450&ref=mf
Is that a good thing ottawaobserver? How come the NDP is getting so close with the sovereigntists?
Mon, 2009-11-09 20:21
#25
great looking foward to indercenable hints :D
http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/09/18/the-mulroney-conservative-lovefest/ai...
or
http://www.tbsnconservative.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/Mike_Duffy.jpg
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:07
#26
So far Tories have won easily in CCMV with the NDP second and the Libs 3rd and the Green party locked in a tight race with the CHP for last place.
MIKR is very tight between the BQ and Tories and Hochelaga looks like an easy BQ win but with the NDP second.
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:11
#27
With 16% of the polls counted in Hochelaga, NDP 21%, Liberal 14%, Bloc 52%. Not a big surprise.
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:13
#28
I just started a thread in the Quebec/Ontario forum for by-elections results, but I guess they can be reported here too?
Anyway, it looks like the BQ is easily winning in Hochelaga and that the NDP is not close to the BQ at all. Isn't that a surprise compared to recent expectations here of a close race?
Interesting how close the BQ and Conservatives are in Kamouraska-Riviere Du Loup though.
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:15
#29
I never expected a "close" race in Hochelaga - I thought it would be more like 45%-27% but I always thought that actually winning was a big longshot
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:18
#30
Interesting. Based on what I have read here from NDP supporters and in the media, this looks like a disappointment to me. The BQ is easily winning in Hochelaga and the Conservatives have easily won in Nova Scotia. I thought the NDP was hoping to be a strong 2nd in both seats.
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:21
#31
I think 26% in CCMV is a strong second in what is the most rock-ribbed Tory seat in Nova Scotia. What i would like to know if how you explain the Liberals being a poor third in CCMV where the won in 1993 where they were the traditional second place party and the fact that the Liberals are a distant third in both Quebec seats. What ever happened to Iggy leading the Libs to being the "default federalist alternative" in Quebec???
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:24
#32
MIKR is an old bleu Social Creditiste seat (in one incarnation or another) and was partially Dumont's ADQ seat provincially. So I'm not surprised by the closeness of this race. We will have to wait and see if one of the candidates eventually breaks out. The Cons also seem to have candidacy in their favour.
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:24
#33
If the NDP was serious about being the progressive alternative in Quebec they should have put up a united front against the Tories gutting of the gun registry. Instead they showed once again and at a strategically important moment why the Bloc is the only party in the HOC with consistant progressive principles on crime and justice. It's a shame those of us outside of Quebec don't have that option and I can sympathize with those in Quebec who recognize a good thing and want to hold onto it.
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:24
#34
First results in NWC and Fin is in the lead!
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:25
#35
...meanwhile the BQ is losing MIKR to the Tories - I guess Quebec isn't so "progressive" after all.
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:25
#36
1993 is the only time the Liberals won CCMV, and I think you know why - that was the year the PC's were wiped out. It was not a representative election. They are actually doing better than expected in Nova Scotia tonight as they are only about 5 points behind the NDP who were expected to be the main challengers.
I think Hochelaga and Nova Scotia will be viewed as disappointments for the NDP by the media tomorrow. The NDP was expected to be only 5 points behind the Cons in Nova Scotia and they are 20 points behind right now - same thing in Hochelaga.
Not a good night so far for the NDP, although obviously the Liberals have a lot of work to do themselves and Ignatieff needs a kick in the ass to get his head in order.
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:29
#37
First results in NWC and Fin is in the lead!
I hope he beats the Conservative. Good luck to him.
He is also a handsome guy.
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:31
#38
First poll reporting in NW-C:
Conservative Diana Dilworth 45 36.0
NDP Fin Donnelly 69 55.2
Green Rebecca Helps 8 6.3
Liberal Ken Beck Lee 3 2,4
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:33
#39
hmm...so far we have the Green party at 3% in CCMV, 2% in MIKR and 3% in Hochelaga - that is quite a contrast to their national polling numbers.
I pronounce the Greens and the Liberals to be the big losers of the night!
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:37
#40
hmm...so far we have the Green party at 3% in CCMV, 2% in MIKR and 3% in Hochelaga - that is quite a contrast to their national polling numbers.
I pronounce the Greens and the Liberals to be the big losers of the night!
What have the Liberals lost tonight?
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:39
#41
Conservatives starting to pull away in Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, now almost a 500 vote lead
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:39
#42
1993 is the only time the Liberals won CCMV, and I think you know why - that was the year the PC's were wiped out. It was not a representative election. They are actually doing better than expected in Nova Scotia tonight as they are only about 5 points behind the NDP who were expected to be the main challengers.
I think Hochelaga and Nova Scotia will be viewed as disappointments for the NDP by the media tomorrow. The NDP was expected to be only 5 points behind the Cons in Nova Scotia and they are 20 points behind right now - same thing in Hochelaga.
Not a good night so far for the NDP, although obviously the Liberals have a lot of work to do themselves and Ignatieff needs a kick in the ass to get his head in order.
Comparing by-elections to generals are always problematic - however I think I should intrude with a little bit of realty. As of the current standings the NDP has increased its share of the vote in Hochelaga by 6 % while the Liberals have dropped by slightly more than 7 %.
In CCMV it is even worse to compare but the NDP increased its vote by 13.5 per cent while the Liberals only increased by 12.85 in a riding where they were (prior to 2006) the default alternative.
You can spin it all you want that this is somehow bad for the NDP, but the real numbers show that is nothing but empty spin.
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:39
#43
12% in MIKR, 13% in Hochelaga and 21% in CCMV (and NWC is not likely to provide much consolation) - this is not good for the official opposition which was claiming to be the new "default federalist alternative" in Quebec.
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:41
#44
hmm...so far we have the Green party at 3% in CCMV, 2% in MIKR and 3% in Hochelaga - that is quite a contrast to their national polling numbers.
I pronounce the Greens and the Liberals to be the big losers of the night!
What have the Liberals lost tonight?
Any pretence that they are a government in waiting.
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:43
#45
The votes sure are coming in slowly in NWC!
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:43
#46
1993 is the only time the Liberals won CCMV, and I think you know why - that was the year the PC's were wiped out. It was not a representative election. They are actually doing better than expected in Nova Scotia tonight as they are only about 5 points behind the NDP who were expected to be the main challengers.
I think Hochelaga and Nova Scotia will be viewed as disappointments for the NDP by the media tomorrow. The NDP was expected to be only 5 points behind the Cons in Nova Scotia and they are 20 points behind right now - same thing in Hochelaga.
Not a good night so far for the NDP, although obviously the Liberals have a lot of work to do themselves and Ignatieff needs a kick in the ass to get his head in order.
Comparing by-elections to generals are always problematic - however I think I should intrude with a little bit of realty. As of the current standings the NDP has increased its share of the vote in Hochelaga by 6 % while the Liberals have dropped by slightly more than 7 %.
In CCMV it is even worse to compare but the NDP increased its vote by 13.5 per cent while the Liberals only increased by 12.85 in a riding where they were (prior to 2006) the default alternative.
You can spin it all you want that this is somehow bad for the NDP, but the real numbers show that is nothing but empty spin.
The NDP was expected to finish a strong 2nd in Cumberland-Colchester, and it finished 20 points behind. The NDP was expected to finish a strong 2nd in Hochelaga and it is 30 points behind. That is not a good result for the NDP considering the effort put into the by-elections.
Meanwhile, the Liberals have nearly tripled their popular vote in Cumberland-Colchester from 2008, and not finished far behind the NDP in Hochelaga despite not focusing on the riding the way the NDP did.
The big winner of the night could be the Conservatives, and the big loser could be the BQ if they don't hold Kamouraska-Riviere Du Loup.
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:45
#47
I suppose the Liberals can try to retrospectively create fantasy expectations for the NDP. I never heard anyone in the NDP claim they were going to be close in Hochelaga - just that they would gain ground and come in second.
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:48
#48
I suppose the Liberals can try to retrospectively create fantasy expectations for the NDP. I never heard anyone in the NDP claim they were going to be close in Hochelaga - just that they would gain ground and come in second.
What about all the articles portraying it as a close BQ-NDP race? Or all the posts here with people claiming the BQ could lose the seat to the NDP because of the Daniel Paille controversy?
And I notice you didn't mention the NDP's sub-par results in Cumberland-Colchester where it was reported on CBC over the weekend that the NDP expected to finish within 5 points of the Cons, not 20.
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:48
#49
It will also be interesting to see how the BQ reacts to losing MIKR - they may start to get worried about their rural seats and feel the need to move to the right and soft pedal opposition to the gun registry etc...
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:50
#50
Only 5 polls are in but its looking like an NDP blow-out in NWC!
Mon, 2009-11-09 22:50
#51
It will also be interesting to see how the BQ reacts to losing MIKR - they may start to get worried about their rural seats and feel the need to move to the right and soft pedal opposition to the gun registry etc...
Well it isn't lost yet, as there are about 65 or 70 more polls to come in and only a 2 point difference, but yes, the BQ could be in trouble.
That will be the biggest story of the night if the Cons win there and the BQ loses.