Yet another Polling Thread

106 posts / 0 new

Tue, 2009-12-01 07:29

nicky

Although 17% for the NDP in Quebec is encouraging, it does not necessarily indicate any additional seats. Of the various ridings mentioned above, only Gatineau would be gained on the swing indicated by the poll. The margins in the other seats are just too great.

The real problem for the NDP is that its vote is just not concentrated enough to yield seats. The internal numbers in the Leger poll show that the NDP support is very even between the various demogaphic and geograhic subsets. It falls within a narrow band of 15-19 % for each of: French, Allophone, Montreal Region, Quebec City Region and the Rest of the Province.

By contrast, the Libs dominate the Allophone vote and remain concentrated in Montreal. The Cons have a strong lead in the Quebec City Region. This efficiency of support will maximize their seat totals. The NDP's inefficiency will minimize its.

The highest NDP support in the poll is in Quebec City (19%) but that is only half the Con support there.

I am interested in whether the NDP has any particular prospects in Quebec City and why the Cons have done so well there. Any comments?

Tue, 2009-12-01 10:54

#103

madmax

scott wrote:
So to sum up. Green Party support is at least what the pollsters report, but only about half that support converts into votes for the Green Party. Nevertheless the support is there.

If an election were held today, who would you vote for? When prompted for an answer with choices, many randomly pick one. The truthful answer is they are not voting. THose who don't vote or don't vote for the party they said they would vote for, demonstrates that the support isn't there. Looking at your answer, you have misled the polster. The polsters numbers are going to be wrong, because you have misled them. What party do you support and who/what party would you vote for are two different questions.

Your answer is, I would like to vote for my party preferance but am voting NDP to stop a CPC. That is a truthful answer and reflective of EDAY. I think its time the polsters trimmed the fat of these ridiculously high numbers for the Green Party. It also has a deflating effect for those who do support the party and vote for them only to discover that that 15% polling number turned out to be 5% on Eday. That margin of error is MASSIVE. No polster should continuously put forth such erroneous data. There is enough empirical evidence to show that while they get the 4 parties (CPC, LPC, BQ, NDP) within the margins of error, the polsters are often out between 100% and 200% on green party numbers.

Tue, 2009-12-01 11:44

#104

remind

continued over here

Tue, 2009-12-01 17:36

#105

scott

ottawaobserver wrote:
BC Southern Interior is an interesting case though. ... But it wasn't always a "safe" NDP seat as Scott claims:

I didn't say that it was always a safe seat. I said it IS a safe seat for the NDP now.

Quote:
it was one of the ones that has switched back and forth over the long years between the NDP and populist conservatives, and was held by a Reformer from 1993 to 2006.

The riding was only created in 2003 so it is a bit dicey to look back before then. The Reformer, Jim Gouk, was first elected (in Kootenay West-Revelstoke) in the Reform sweep in 1993. He was a true populist, personally well liked and very much a constituency politician, which helped cement his position. He retired frorm politics after his squeaker win over the NDP's Alex Atamanenko. Alex has now won 2 elections in BCSI, and is also personally well liked and active in the community which has helped cement his hold on the riding. He has name recognition, and since his first win he has faced different opponents every election. Jim Gouk himself has said that Alex is well established and will be very hard to beat.

Quote:
With virtually all of the Liberal vote going to the Conservatives, while Atamanenko held his vote, it means that Greens in that riding will have some much more consequential decisions to make there next time around.

I don't think so. In the 2008 election the polls showed the NDP way out in front from the get-go. This didn't stop NDP campaigners, in the last days of the campaign, from claiming that "secret internal polls" showed that the race was very close and urgently made a call for Green supporters to switch to the NDP. Many did and the Green vote was pushed below 10% and the Green candidate lost his deposit. Alex sailed to victory with a comfy 5000+ vote margin. Thanks NDP! This was a sad result because this stunt was totally unnecessary and will make it much more difficult to cry wolf again, even if it is called for.

Quote:
Do you even know the terrain?

I lived in the riding from 1992 until early this year and have been involved in community politics and several Federal and Provincial campaigns in BCSI. What is your experience with the riding?
__________________________________
One struggle, many fronts.

Tue, 2009-12-01 22:03

#106

ottawaobserver

Worked in and around the riding for several years in the nineties and still visit the area, and have friends who are politically active there. But I defer to your greater local knowledge. Sorry.

scott wrote:

ottawaobserver wrote:

With virtually all of the Liberal vote going to the Conservatives, while Atamanenko held his vote, it means that Greens in that riding will have some much more consequential decisions to make there next time around.

I don't think so. In the 2008 election the polls showed the NDP way out in front from the get-go. This didn't stop NDP campaigners, in the last days of the campaign, from claiming that "secret internal polls" showed that the race was very close and urgently made a call for Green supporters to switch to the NDP. Many did and the Green vote was pushed below 10% and the Green candidate lost his deposit. Alex sailed to victory with a comfy 5000+ vote margin. Thanks NDP! This was a sad result because this stunt was totally unnecessary and will make it much more difficult to cry wolf again, even if it is called for.

Yes, I remember that story now that you mention it. However, the implication of what you're saying is that the Greens are allowed to pitch for NDP votes, but not vice versa. The Liberals get grumpy about the same thing. The thing is we campaign hard for every vote, and don't take for granted that any of them "belong" to us like some other parties do. And, how can you be so sure what led to that outcome, given that your own leader was advocating people vote strategically to stop the Conservatives? Nothing is certain in election campaigns. Not the last one and not the next one.

Yet another Polling Thread

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