Although 17% for the NDP in Quebec is encouraging, it does not necessarily indicate any additional seats. Of the various ridings mentioned above, only Gatineau would be gained on the swing indicated by the poll. The margins in the other seats are just too great.
The real problem for the NDP is that its vote is just not concentrated enough to yield seats. The internal numbers in the Leger poll show that the NDP support is very even between the various demogaphic and geograhic subsets. It falls within a narrow band of 15-19 % for each of: French, Allophone, Montreal Region, Quebec City Region and the Rest of the Province.
By contrast, the Libs dominate the Allophone vote and remain concentrated in Montreal. The Cons have a strong lead in the Quebec City Region. This efficiency of support will maximize their seat totals. The NDP's inefficiency will minimize its.
The highest NDP support in the poll is in Quebec City (19%) but that is only half the Con support there.
I am interested in whether the NDP has any particular prospects in Quebec City and why the Cons have done so well there. Any comments?