The big issue in OW-N is the Nortel pension issue, not sure how that will play for the Grits in the first by-election in the post John Tory-era that pits the Liberals and PC's in really direct contest.
As for Leeds-Grenville, it looks like a rejected Landowners backed candidate for the PC nomination could be gearing up for an independent run.
http://recorder.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=2441498&auth=CHRISTINE%20ENDICO...
The NDP, of course, has no chance in either. Ottawa West-Nepean is a real test for both McGuinty and Hudak as it could either go Liberal or Conservative. This is the first byelection that is not a safe seat for the Libs since McGuinty supposedly became unpopular because of E-Health and the HST. Certainly the Tories need to do respectably (I don't read much into Pamela Taylor's poor showing in the most recent byelection).
Leeds-Grenville is of course a very safe Tory seat - in the highly unlikely scenario that they lose that one - Hudak will be pressured to resign the next day.
I think that for the NDP, the main very low level objective in both Ottawa West-Nepean and in Leeds-Grenville would be gain a couple of points in the popular vote compared to 2007 and to come in a clear third and make sure that the Green party is in LOW single digits and in fourth place like they were in St. Paul and Toronto Centre - it would help create a narrative that the Greens are pushing up daisies and that the NDP is the only third force. In the past, the greens have had some slight signs of strength in rural ridings and in the Ottawa area so it would be good to see them bomb in these two byelections.
I think to some extent, the Greens did reasonably well in some very Tory exurban and rural ridings precisely because anti-Conservative voters felt reasonably safe casting their vote for a "fringe" party.
Let's not forget that in the last provincial election the Greens also got some votes from "Orange lodge" type Tories who hated John Tory';s proposal to give money to religious schools. I'm sure that with Hudak thpose people have returned to the fold.
The Greens do better in rural seats. If their vote withers in these two ridings they probably can look forward to the same level of success provincially in Ontario as the Canadian Action Party currently enjoys fedrally.
Who ever thought before that the GPO was riding on the coattails of Frank Dejong's popularity?
They also do quite well in urban "creative class" type seats - at least until now.
The landowner activist who was blocked from the Tory nomination (fairly or unfairly I don't know) is mulling an independent run. Leeds-Grenville is one of the three or four most right-wing ridings in Ontario.
One historical thing to note: in a 1982 federal byelection in Leeds-Grenville, the Libertarian candidate received 13% of the vote.
That candidate was Neil Reynolds who - then and now - is pretty high profile.
I would have thought so. I wonder what kind of following Carmichael has. Hillier will probably be pressured to come out and campaign for the Tory candidate.
I don't think the local PCs need Hillier's support. Contrary to Hillier's own myth he's not all that popular. He barely won his seat in Lanark, while his federal counterpart wins for the Tories by 30 points.
True enough - though a good amount of the difference must have had to do with the fact that John Tory as leader was a liability in the Eastern Ontario conservative heartland.
Bob Runciman won handily in the riding next door.
The problem is a lot of Conservative voters in rural Ontario are actually conservative - and they don't identify with a loud-mouthed ass clown who says that pasteurization is a marxist plot. They like their candidates to dress well, speak softly and run things well. Hillier doesn't (nor does he actually farm).
Hillier appeals to one part of the Conservative coalition but he alienates the other - and the part he appeals to has nowhere else to go (maybe they'll vote Green). You won't see him in Leeds.
Hillier appeals to one part of the Conservative coalition but he alienates the other - and the part he appeals to has nowhere else to go (maybe they'll vote Green). You won't see him in Leeds.
The part he appeals to would, if Carmichael or one of his ilk didn't run as an indie, probably stay home. I don't think the OLA could make or break that riding for the PC's, but they have some sway, and are probably going to not lend any organizated support to the Clark campaign, which probably won cost the PC's the riding, but it could bump them down in popular support a bit, and they need to win the riding big if they want to end any speculation about current PC strategy being a dud.
That takes the pressure off Hillier!
I wasn't suggesting Hillier would have been pressured to campaign because he's such a vote-winner - but rather to prove his loyalty to the party.
I don't think the local PCs need Hillier's support. Contrary to Hillier's own myth he's not all that popular. He barely won his seat in Lanark, while his federal counterpart wins for the Tories by 30 points.
Hillier is very popular with the base of the party. He is a genuine, down-to-earth and honest man who says what he believes - a rarity in politics today for politicians of any party.
As for the last provincial election, perhaps you aren't aware that it was a bad election for the PC's because of John "red" Tory and his incompetence. The fact that Hiller was able to win a riding admist a wipe-out for the PC's was an accomplishment.
Thanks for starting this up and thanks for the link to the initial article, Starsuburb.
Ah, I was hoping Carmichael would run. That could have made things more interesting. There could still be a backlash if he doesn't support Clark. But I suspect the fear of even a remote chance Lib win will give all PC voters a clear choice.
Hiller spent a lot of time in his pre-MPP career wandering around my backyard. He actually did a very small town tour during his leadership run, and he attrached interest.
Hiller has a following around here in PC\Con land. I think he's a shrewd politician who's act wears thin. He's great for soundbites but I can't speak to his accomplishments or popularity in the riding. He has a following in the south, aided by his tour of small town southern ontario during his leadership candidacy.
To me Hillier has always been associated with the landowners movement which is quite separate from agriculture and farming, in my view. He has pulled some high profile stunts locally, that were very well attended.
Nice theory but:
- Bob Runciman won the riding next door with 60 per cent of the vote.
- Norm Sterling won the one on the other side by over 9000 votes.
- John Yakabuski won his on the north side won his by 15000 votes.
- All three increased their vote over 2003.
So, either John Tory only hurt one campaign in the region or - maybe - there's another factor that made a difference. Something unique to that riding. Like... Randy Hillier.
As for Hillier being popular with the base of the party... he got 9 per cent of the vote in the leadership race. I'm usually disappointed when my candidate gets 9 per cent.
Hillier's a paper tiger. The Tories would be wise to cut him loose. He alienates real farmers, real people, and anyone but his own little clique of goofballs.
Looking at the Green vote in both ridings, if the Greens show the same joie de vivre these times around as they did in Toronto Centre, then they'll be down in the bush leagues, just above John Turmel. They might be lucky in L-G, but in OW-N, they will have a job to do to break 5%.
I think the NDP relearnt how to run a successful campaign in Toronto Centre, and I'd be surprised if the lessons learnt weren't applied in these two by-elections. I'd be very, very happy if the NDP breaks 15% in OW-N and beats the Greens handily into third place in L-G. Getting into double figures there would be nice, too.
Well, federally, they got 13.85% to the Greens' 9.6% in '08 (and the Liberals' 17.2%), so use that as a benchmark in L-G...
Kind of interesting how the Loyalist heartland (aren't they supposed to be all polite and deferential to authority?) seems to be also the most fertile ground for American-style Teabaggerism in Ontario.
It could be me but the phrase "teabaggerism" conjured up a completely different image then the intended one...
Anyway, I think most "conservatives" in Eastern Ontario are polite and deferential. That's why candidates like Runciman do better than Hillier. That's why Sean Conway could hold a riding like Renfrew for 20 years.
The ironic thing for right-wingers who see their salvation in teabaggery (LOL) is that it will actually be their undoing. If the Republicans hitch their wagon to a bunch of doofuses playing dressup and reading crib notes off their palms they will marginalize themselves. Even if there is real discontent with the Obama administration people will recoil and re-elect him if their alternative is Sarah Palin. Just as Hudak is marginalizing himself by associating with Hillier and the other ass-clowns in the Landowners.
The real tragedy is that the Left has been unable to capitalize on the legitimate discontent of these folks and mobilize their energies in a movement that would actually help them. Lots of barriers to that - internally and externally - but it is a tragedy that farmers being marginalized by globalization are rallying behind a doofus who's fronting for the same forces that are killing the family farm.
Oh yes, the very moderate, polite, Red Tory-ish Bob Runicman: the one who made sexist remarks about Belinda Stronach and blamed black community leaders in Toronto for crime. Sometimes the line between "respectable" conservatives and rightwing shock troops is blurrier than we think.
I agree with your analysis about rightwing populists exploiting legitimate grievances and all that, no dispute from me on that.
ETA: An acquaintance of mine in Leeds-Grenville is an older man who is a successful businessman and a respected member of the community. Kind of a throwback to the 50s, and certainly very patriarchal. He'd never get involved with someone like Hillier. He thinks Bob Runciman is a great MPP. He sends out "Chinese jokes" by email. He also watches Fox News and thinks Bill O'Reilly really tells it like it is.
Kind of interesting how the Loyalist heartland (aren't they supposed to be all polite and deferential to authority?) seems to be also the most fertile ground for American-style Teabaggerism in Ontario.
That is, unless one identifies the true "Loyalist heartland" as being further west, i.e. centred more along the Belleville-Napanee-Kingston axis; in fact, that's relatively Liberal-leaning by comparison, territory that nearly defeated Hillier in 2007...
For those of you who crave electoral maps, I've got your fix:
Absolutely. Let it not be said that Runciman et al are also redneck asses.Oh yes, the very moderate, polite, Red Tory-ish Bob Runicman: the one who made sexist remarks about Belinda Stronach and blamed black community leaders in Toronto for crime. Sometimes the line between "respectable" conservatives and rightwing shock troops is blurrier than we think.
The ironic thing for right-wingers who see their salvation in teabaggery (LOL) is that it will actually be their undoing. If the Republicans hitch their wagon to a bunch of doofuses playing dressup and reading crib notes off their palms they will marginalize themselves.
THREAD DRIFT!
Sarah Palin is the wanna be establishment Republican from the furthest nether regions of that party's elephantine digestive tract. She is the card reading buffoon, not the people in the Tea Party movement. Do not underestimate the Tea Baggers and their auxilliary ideological brethern. There is something about them that makes me stop and shudder.
]There is something about them that makes me stop and shudder.Which is exactly why Obama will win re-election no matter how badly he screws up - people like you will say, "My God! These guys are scary and they're going to win".
Is it me or are the Greens courting the landowner vote?
The race in both ridings will be very dull. The Liberals will take OWN easily and the PCs will run away with Leeds-Grenville no problem. Because Steve Clark is running there is no chance of an upset from the Liberals which will allow people to vote with their hearts and curb strategic voting in Leeds-Grenville. Same thing with Bob Chiarelli in OWN.
Leeds-Grenville- The Liberals are running a strong candidate in Mazurek, however the dynamic is different then in 2003 and he won't see the same numbers. This time too he won't get any strategic voters as there is no chance of an upset. The Greens are running a much stronger candidate this time and being the only non-Brockville candidate he may do very well with rural voters. He also did well in the debates. Not as smooth as Clark, but held his own. The NDP are running Steve Armstrong for the fifth time, I don't expect them to order signs as Armstrong only has federal signs from previous elections and probably won't run provincially again. I've only seen red green and blue signs thus far. Expect a solid 20 point lead, Greens keep third.
Ottawa West Nepean - Liberals get 15 to 20 point lead. numbers of all parties don't change substantially. Was in Ottawa yesterday and the Greens seem to be running an aggressive campaign. The NDP candidates bio seems impressive.
Predictions
Leeds-Grenville - PC 50-51% LIB 31-32% GPO 10-11 NDP 7-8
Ottawa West Nepean - LIB 47-48 PC 32-33 NDP 10-11 GPO 9-10
For the Tories, a loss by a wide margin on OWN would a very, very, very bad omen. This is a riding that federally went Tory in both 2006 and 2008. With all the stuff that has happened with e-health and the HST and the economic situation etc...if Tim Hudak's PCs cannot gain any ground in a riding like Ottawa-West-Nepean - then I'm left wonder where exactly they are suppose to be gaining any ground in the next election??
And on top of that, how's Chiarelli regarded these days, considering his age and his most recent failed mayoral run?
As for L-G, it sounds like all the opposition candidates have something "going for them": Mazurek's strong 2003 showing, the Greens' apparent landowner-vote bid, and even Steve Armstrong been a bit of a federal overachiever by NDP standards...
As Sunday Hat and I discussed in this thread- http://www.rabble.ca/babble/central-canada/toronto-centre-election-exciting-conclusion this is not a landowner support bid by the Greens. I would expect the NDP to be concerned about the same issues.
For the Tories, a loss by a wide margin on OWN would a very, very, very bad omen. This is a riding that federally went Tory in both 2006 and 2008. With all the stuff that has happened with e-health and the HST and the economic situation etc...if Tim Hudak's PCs cannot gain any ground in a riding like Ottawa-West-Nepean - then I'm left wonder where exactly they are suppose to be gaining any ground in the next election??
Exactly. This is the first real byelection test of the McGuinty govt. since they supposedly became really unpopular and the first real test of Hudak. If the Tories are blown out, it's hard to see them breaking through.
Is it fair to say that the stakes are actually much higher for Hudak and the Conservatives? I would think so.
If it is they don't seem to be putting much effort in to either campaign. Both Liberal and Green leaders have visited both ridings since the writ drop while Hudak has yet to be seen. Even with lit and signs the conservatives aren't doing anything special.
Hudak is dropping by Ottawa West-Nepean today for a rally.
Also, taking a look at Armstrong's and FitzGerald's websites, the trend of using orange/blue as opposed to orange/green which started in Toronto Centre seems to be continuing for whatever reason.
...are today. Anyone want to make predictions?
Well the Greens aren't dead.
Have any results come in yet?
L-G, 186 out of 230: PC 65.8, Lib 20.1, GP 8.4, NDP 5.2
OW-N, 267 out of 285: Lib 43.3, PC 38.6, NDP 8.8, GP 8.5
Well Hudak looks safe.
Yup. The Tories cleaned up in one of the safest ridings in Ontario for them, but they closed the gap in Ottawa West-Nepean and the Libs had a "star candidate."
Two former mayors were elected tonight.
And the Greens beat the NDP handily in Leeds-Grenville and tied the NDP in Ottawa West-Nepean...not exactly the result you were hoping for, Stockholm 
The GP is not really credible but their strong showing means the environment is still a key issue for a significant group of voters and they don't see those values reflected in the NDP for a number of reasons.
I don't actually think "the environment" has much to do with it. As I mentioned, in the Toronto Centre byelection, the NDP candidate Cathy Crowe was a social activist with no background whatsoever on environmental issues and her campaign made no particular mention of the environment - it was all traditional NDP themes of poverty, health, education, housing etc.... and yet the NDP vote went from 18% to 33% and the Greens collapsed from 10% to 3%.
I think that in ridings like Leeds-Grenville or Ottawa West-Nepean which are totally unwinnable for the NDP and where the party doesn't put in major resources - people who are looking for a throwaway protest vote figure that voting Green is as good as voting NDP.
My impression is that while the Greens were asleep at the switch in Toronto-Centre - they did put what for them is a major effort in these two byelections - and when you make an effort you get more votes. I think that they are adopting a wise strategy of informally withdrawing from any serious competition with the NDP in seats where the NDP is a factor - like Toronto Centre and instead concentrating on rural and exurban ridings where the NDP is not a factor and where the "protest vote" tends to stigmatize the NDP as being the party of "the poor", "unions", "icky manual labourers" etc... and is happy to have another vehicle that isn't stigmatized in the same way.
So, I say good for the Greens - I hope they keep right on targetting those rural and exurban seats where there are lots of disaffected ex-Tories and that they stay out of low income urban and northern ridings where they would likely be spoilers.
My observation is that ridings where NDP support is weak tend to have stronger support for the Greens (afterall, if you've decided that it doesn't matter whether your candidate is going to win, why not take that one step further and support a party without any seats?). If the NDP is seen as having a chance, Green support tends to migrate (or return?) to the NDP. The only real exceptions that I've seen to that trend have been Guelph (federally and provincially) and Ottawa Centre (federally, although Dewar still wins handily).
Congratulations to both Pam FitzGerald and Steve Armstrong for running solid campaigns.
Sorry maybe I shouldn't have started a new thread, but I missed this in my zeal.
Found this on facebook this morning from Jim Harris
Congratulations, congratulations, congratulations on two absolutely amazing GPO by-elections campaigns. The GPO surpassed the NDP - winning almost 1,000 votes more in the two ridings combined! Well done!!!
When you add up the votes that Mark MacKenzie won in Ottawa West-Nepean (2,360) and the votes Neil Kudrinko won in Leeds-Grenville (2140) the GPO won 4,500 votes - SIGNIFICANTLY more than the NDP in these two by-elections (2395 + 1140 = 3535) - FANTASTIC!
To me this suggest the Greens are specifically targeting NDP votes, not trying to increase votes for environmental issues. It makes a lie of everything the Greens say in public.
Gee I wonder why Jim harris doesn't also add in the third byelection in Ontario in the past month - Toronto Centre where the NDP took 9,000 votes and the Greens took about 1,000???
Far be it from me to defend the Green party - but that posting is just some lunatic fringe raving from Jim Harris who has a particular obsession with going after the NDP - but my understanding is that he is now very much a fringe player in Green circles and verges on being persona non grata. So while i find his commentary nauseating - I don't think he speaks for anyone but himself.
You would be wrong in that assumption. He is very much a force behind the scenes in the GPO under Schriener. Might be so on the federal level, but not in Ontario.
I don't get it.
The Greens make gains in ridings where they've spent an economical amount of time and money... and the ONDPers on board consider that wasted time? Resources better spent maintaining second place in safe ridings?
I do agree with the Green as protest vote. And I've seen some gains locally in having an NDP candiate willing and able to speak to local and current events.
