Just a note to remind everyone who may be frustrated with the current political situation. Jean Chretien and Stephen Harper both were massively unpopular leaders and viewed as yesterday's man vs right wing hidden agenda nutjob.
Indeed, there was Campbell mania in 1993 before she ran one of the most incompetent and bitter campaigns in Canadian history. A review of the record shows that she was leading or tied in the polls. Angus Reid had it 37-35 Libs and Comquest had it 36-33 PC going into the 1993 campaign. People were far from ready to embrace Jean Chretien at the outset. He ran a brilliant campaign and won.
Stephen Harper was similar. In the summer of 2005, he was 14 points behind the Libs and Paul Martin's party was in majority territory. Harper looked finished. He ran a brilliant campaign from the start in 2006 and then the income trust scandal pushed him over the top into government territory.
In both cases, there was a mood of disenchantment and a hint of scandal with the sitting government but no oppositon party had yet arisen to the challenge and captured the imagination of the public. The campaign changed things. I think that is what will happen in the next federal election.
The Liberals or NDP will have a strike out debate performance or awesome stump performance and erase this lead that Harper has right now once the next election starts. Look at the fundamental dynamnics. Who are the facts on the ground favorable to once they are exposed day after day. That is how to determine who will win the next election rather than freaking out because the Cons have a lead with just 31% in the polls.