The NDP has had consistently good polling results on every large sample poll done by a Quebec based polling company. I think its reasonable to give a lot more weight to polls by Leger or CROP that talk to 1,000 people than to national polls with dinky little Quebec sub-samples.
All New Polling Thread (pt. 13)
Mon, 2010-05-10 18:46
#102
Mon, 2010-05-10 18:46
#103
Leger & CROP are usually the most reliable Quebec pollsters - astute political pundits know that. 
This is quite a comedown for the Harper right wingers in Quebec, and if this trend continues I would not be placing any bets on the Cons winning many, if any, seats in Quebec.
Mon, 2010-05-10 19:06
#104
I don't see how this relates to the ethics point either actually. The fact that they have a lawyer as MP who has been sued for being involved in a shady practice is the point-- whether or not he was sued before or after the election hardly seems relevant.
Depends on whether or not it should have been considered in his vetting as a candidate.
Mon, 2010-05-10 19:07
#105
Nanos has a leadership poll
Mon, 2010-05-10 19:32
#106
Actually, in all party vetting processes it is very clear in the instructions and guidlines that Shory was under a clear requirement to divulge the case whather or not he had been sued. The language asks you for anything that might be a problem- and everyone knows that is meant literally. Even before he was sued he had been pursued by the bank for months.
Mon, 2010-05-10 19:38
#107
Leger & CROP are usually the most reliable Quebec pollsters - astute political pundits know that.
This is quite a comedown for the Harper right wingers in Quebec, and if this trend continues I would not be placing any bets on the Cons winning many, if any, seats in Quebec.
Conservative support is low in Montreal, but it is still holding in the Quebec City region and in the Beauce. The Conservatives are likely to keep some of their seats in Quebec City, and Bernier is guaranteed to keep the Beauce.
Mon, 2010-05-10 19:48
#108
If the Leger numbers were borne out the Tories would lose at least two seats in Quebec city that they won narrowly last time.
Mon, 2010-05-10 20:25
#109
Does the NDP pick up any seats in Quebec if Leger is accurate?
Any modellers out there?
Mon, 2010-05-10 20:48
#110
NDP support is spread so thin that no matter the numbers that models spit out, you can really only say that the probability of higher numbers of seats has gone up significantly. In my books that does not mean any more than it says.
Mon, 2010-05-10 20:51
#111
I thought about 18% would be at or near some sort of breaking point when seats start to fall.
I guess it depends on the region, but seeing it spread b/t francophone and anglo/allos means your point makes quite a bit of sense.
Tue, 2010-05-11 01:00
#112
If the Leger numbers were borne out the Tories would lose at least two seats in Quebec city that they won narrowly last time.
They might, but they might not. You can't know with certainty until the next election.
But I already said a few weeks ago that I think Sylvie Boucher is vulnerable and that she could lose.
But losing 2 seats would not be a huge deal. So much for those predictions that the Conservatives would lose all their seats in Quebec. Losing only 2 seats would be pretty insignificant. If that's the worst that is going to happen to Stephen Harper in Quebec, it's a pretty good trade-off to drop slightly in Quebec but possibly win a lot more seats in the rest of Canada.
Tue, 2010-05-11 08:27
#113
Specifically where else do you believe they will pick up seats, then, Augustus?
Tue, 2010-05-11 09:20
#114
I said that this poll would mean the Tories losing two cities in Quebec City alone. They have other very vulnerable seats such as Jonquiere, Roberval and Pontiac - to name a few.
Pages
- « first
- ‹ previous
- 1
- 2
- 3