Will BC Politics be altered?

35 posts / 0 new
Last post
Mean Moe
Will BC Politics be altered?

Will a successful Initiative petition, and possible recalls, reshape electoral politics in BC?

  • Will it increase voter engagement and participation?
  • Will it make election more honest? In what manner (toned down, realistic promises)?
  • Will it make MLAs, and governments, more responsive to voters wishes or less?
  • Will it lead to a BC NDP government or a minority?
  • Will it lead to a 3rd party surge? Id so, whom?

I might have missed something so include any probabilities, or even possibilities, that may occur.

remind remind's picture

This is assuming it is successful.....?

Mean Moe

At this point,  the number of scenarios where it doesn't succeed are dwindling fast. Even if one electoral district fails, the fact that at this 500,000 have signed it should have a significant effect on politics in BC.  Never in the province, or Canada's, history have the general population spoken in such unison.

My view is regardless of outcome, this will have a profound effect on BC elections, and governments, and business as usual will not be viewed favorably in the future.

 

As for the outcome, I am confident that the petition will succeed and we will see as many as 15 recalls in November. Out of those 15 as many as 10 could succeed. The political dynamic in BC is changing rapidly. Hopefully voter engagement will increase as a result. In fact registered voters increased by 10% since the last election. This can be attributed to the efforts of the petition organizers encouraging people to register.

Why do you believe it won't succeed?

 

remind remind's picture

*sigh*

 

Long ago got tired of relying on wishes...people are pretty on it here though, we were almost tackled on the street to get a signature, and Shirley Bond has been giving out community awards, to elevate her profile positively, unforunately for her it was to the 'wrong' person/people though.

 

Is there some place that explains about the recall process, that I could direct people to?

Vansterdam Kid

I think it's going to lead to greater engagement, ie. higher voter turnout, more people volunteering.

I don't think that it will lead to more honest government. Circumstances change, so promises can't always be kept. Though, I imagine that whomever is elected in 2013 won't be as brazen in breaking promises, so perhaps they'll be more restrained.

Therefore, I think it will make MLA's more responsive, ie. more willing to pander to popular opinion. Of course some people call this democracy and yes of course MLA's should be responsive to public opinion, to a point. But I think it will lead to them being more afraid of making tough decisions due to excessive populism. This will lead to MLA's being afraid of taking controversial positions. For instance, will the BC government be willing to introduce a gas tax, new road tolls and a vehicle levy to finance new transportation projects? Probably not.

I'm going to bet against the initiative succeeding. From what I understand it has to pass the threshold in each riding. While it's done that in quite a few, there are quite a few where it's struggled A LOT and there are certain limits on resources being transfered from riding to riding. That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see some re-calls in the rural ridings where the initiative is doing well.

As for who will be elected, I'm going to guess there will be a majority NDP government. But if the Conservatives get their act together they might take a bite into the Liberal vote, and prevent the NDP from climbing over the 45-50% range.

Mean Moe

I would interpret this type of "populism" more like , a dictatorship of the proletariat.  Laughing

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

scott scott's picture

remind wrote:
Is there some place that explains about the recall process, that I could direct people to?

Elections BC - Recall

__________________________________

One struggle, many fronts.

remind remind's picture

Thanks scott....

Mean Moe

http://www.straight.com/article-325582/vancouver/petition-target-met-all-two-bc-ridings-antihst-group-says

 

83 of 85 electoral districts have reached 10% or more. The last two are with in a couple of pts with 6 weeks remaining until the deadline.

It is highly doubtful that this will not succeed. We are seeing history being made in front of our eyes. The petition has even now forced the BC Liberals to take a softer stance.

Still a Doubting Thomas?

remind remind's picture

Yes, as there may not be enough "registered voters" even though they think they have enough.

 

and what happens if all 85 are recalled?

Vansterdam Kid

Mean Moe wrote:

http://www.straight.com/article-325582/vancouver/petition-target-met-all-two-bc-ridings-antihst-group-says

 

83 of 85 electoral districts have reached 10% or more. The last two are with in a couple of pts with 6 weeks remaining until the deadline.

It is highly doubtful that this will not succeed. We are seeing history being made in front of our eyes. The petition has even now forced the BC Liberals to take a softer stance.

Still a Doubting Thomas?

I stand corrected. I'm suprised cause I read something last week saying that they were struggling in the urban ridings.

Mean Moe

remind wrote:

Yes, as there may not be enough "registered voters" even though they think they have enough.

 

and what happens if all 85 are recalled?

 

The campaigns goal is 15% in each. It will be done by the end of June. What is the likelihood that 1/3 of the signatures are invalid? Not likely.

All 85 will not be recalled only those that voted for the HST, but even if all 49 Liberals were recalled. Only those that reached 40% in 60 days would be recalled. When this happens the seat is automatically vacated and regular bye-election rules are in effect.

 

Mean Moe

Vansterdam Kid wrote:

Mean Moe wrote:

http://www.straight.com/article-325582/vancouver/petition-target-met-all-two-bc-ridings-antihst-group-says

 

83 of 85 electoral districts have reached 10% or more. The last two are with in a couple of pts with 6 weeks remaining until the deadline.

It is highly doubtful that this will not succeed. We are seeing history being made in front of our eyes. The petition has even now forced the BC Liberals to take a softer stance.

Still a Doubting Thomas?

I stand corrected. I'm suprised cause I read something last week saying that they were struggling in the urban ridings.

With around 6,000 volunteers ground can be made up very quickly.

remind remind's picture

so that 40% in 60 days is where you get you numbers above then....

Shane Dyson

As of May 24th, 9293 registered voters have signed the HST petition in the Langley constituency. Ms. Polak received 13,282 votes in the last election. What will she do if there are more signatures than votes?

If she doesn't accept this, how could she accept any other petition that has fewer signatures?

Politics101

So if the recall is successful and it results in the Liberals losing the right to govern and the NDP are allowed to form a government what is the likelihood that they would kill the HST - after all they just raised it 2% points in Nova Scotia -  and if they did how would they repay the millions that the Federal government would want back - through budget cuts, raising taxes or allowing the deficit to increase. Has Carole James and the leadership of the BC NDP flatly stated that they will repeal this legislation or would they just amend it to make it more equitable to the lower income types.

I think that anyone who gets to vote in a recall by-election if they happen should demand that they will start a recall petition against any NDP'ers elected who does not stand up in the Legislature and introduce a bill to kill the HST.

 

 

remind remind's picture

Not sure what you do not get about STOP THE HST

Ryan1812 Ryan1812's picture

Can anyone find information on the fact that any referendum is non-binding on the government. We all agree, I'm sure, it would be stupid for the government to ignore such a vote if it came to a referendum and it passed, but HOW is it possible that a referendum can be non-binding. That seems to me like a fundamental principl;e of democracy being undermined.

remind remind's picture

well this is recall not referendum isn't it?

 

though in a broad way it is....

keglerdave

Remind, politics is talking about the cost of repealing the HST.  There was the matter of (I may have my numbers backwards) a 4.1 billion dollar payment to the province in exchange for implementing the HST.  Politics is basically asking how an NDP government would go about repaying the federal government the 1 time payment.  Its probably more like 1.4 billion, because Campbell sold everyone out so his deficit projection wouldn't look as bad as it did.  (Deficit 5 times worse than projected, but apply 1.4 billion to it, presto whammo, wasn't that far off.  And he accused the BCNDP of fudgit budgets).  I say the following respectfully.  The entire HST campaign is not fuelled solely because of the tax.  From the rallies I've gone to, and seeing the broad cross section of people involved in this "campaign" its more about being completely lied to and deceived by Campbell... again!  I'm not going to go on about the 2009 election, strategic blunders failures, communication snafus and the like.

What I see at the rallies aren't just hard core NDP'ers and those left of those people.  You have people who's politics are middle of the road with slight bends to the right and to the left.  Disenchanted, pissed off, angry people, some of whom feel totally betrayed. I know, what else should they expect from Premier Pinnochio, but there's more going on.  People are looking for an alternative to Campbell, yet when they look at the NDP as an alternative, they can't make that step, because they perceive (quite wrongly) that the party is weakly led and has no direction.  Its always been my contention that if Carole was allowed to do what she was elected do when she won the leadership race in 2003, I think that this party could broaden its base and be more inclusive, rather than talking about making a move further to the left.  When I was young, even up to 1998, (just turned 40 last week) I remember politics in this province being insane.  But when Vanderzalm, he of the brown paper bag and the comment about welfare receipients should just pick up a shovel,  shares the viewpoint on this idiotic government of right wing neo cons that I do, that shows me just what this is all about.

This entire HST campaign has shown how out of whack the political spectrum in this province is.  John Winter isn't listening to a lot of his members who are up in arms over the HST.  He's pushing it hard at a lot of small business' expense.  Gordon Campbell isn't listening to the electorate (whats new with that I know) and alot of his core support came from restaurants and other small businesses who are going to get hammered by the HST. He doesn't give a shit.

Yet... those people who are taking it up the you know what do give a crap. They feel betrayed (they should.) angry, and some are now teetering.  What's coming out of this is that the right side of the spectrum is setting up to be split again.  Delaney and Vanderzalm are really revving it up good, and look at the BC Cons numbers, they're rising while the BCNDP's numbers are stagnant.  This is good news (not the numbers) but the split of the right wing again.  Its not good news right now per se, because the election is 3 years away.  But if anyone thinks that if there's recall, that the NDP will automatically pick up those seats.... better think again.  If the split still exists in 2013, than I think that the BCNDP will win the election, unless the Liberal vote completely collapses into the BC Conservative party.  But there's a movement out there, almost a Gordon Wilson moment type thing, about how neither the Libs or the BCNDP suits the bill with alot of people.  Hopefully the party appartiks (sp?) are paying attention to this entire thing, because aside from NO HST, there are other messages coming forward.

If the BCNDP can seize upon the momentum, and reach out and become more broadbased rather than more harder left, they have a chance.  But that's the key, IF!!  I, for one, am not holding my breath.  But I've been proven wrong before.

Mean Moe

IMHO the best strategy the BC NDP can use would be to say, we will repeal the tax and the PM to take back the $1.6B HST bribe from BCs transfer payments, if he dares

 

As for recalls, using the current HST petition as a guide. The top target ridings, meaning those that have signed up the greatest % of registered voters, would most likely produce a BC "Liberal" minority with BC Conservatives holding the balance.

The Conservatives could do a number of things in this position.

1) Prop up Liberals in exchange for repealing HST and Campbell's head.

2) Bring down the government with a NCM.

3) Inform the LG that they will not vote out a NDP government prior to the next fixed election date.

I would speculate that 1 is the most likely. It allows to be the heros that rid BC of both Gordo and the HST. Adding to this that they could also gain much legitimacy with the anti-ndp coalition, by keeping the NDP out.

 

remind remind's picture

Don't get me started on John Winter, as he and I have had our own run ins, which I won though, so he can be beaten

But he controls the District representatives, so nuttin is going to get done for small business, until the local chambers change the district reps, or at least  have them be accountable to  the chambers they represent and oust him. if they can.

 

The best thing for them to do is stop being BC Chamber members.

Mean Moe

Ryan1812 wrote:

Can anyone find information on the fact that any referendum is non-binding on the government. We all agree, I'm sure, it would be stupid for the government to ignore such a vote if it came to a referendum and it passed, but HOW is it possible that a referendum can be non-binding. That seems to me like a fundamental principl;e of democracy being undermined.

 

The Recall and Initiative Act- it is non-binding

Mean Moe

Politics101 wrote:

So if the recall is successful and it results in the Liberals losing the right to govern and the NDP are allowed to form a government what is the likelihood that they would kill the HST - after all they just raised it 2% points in Nova Scotia -  and if they did how would they repay the millions that the Federal government would want back - through budget cuts, raising taxes or allowing the deficit to increase.

The NS NDP and BC NDP are different entities, non sequitor

I dare Harper to take the money back. He won't and taxes and services will be fine.

Politics101 wrote:

Has Carole James and the leadership of the BC NDP flatly stated that they will repeal this legislation or would they just amend it to make it more equitable to the lower income types.

CJ has stated that they would get out of the CITCA agreement as so possible, with no cost attached.

Politics101 wrote:

I think that anyone who gets to vote in a recall by-election if they happen should demand that they will start a recall petition against any NDP'ers elected who does not stand up in the Legislature and introduce a bill to kill the HST.

 

 

I agree with that one but you can't have two recalls in one election cycle by law.

remind remind's picture

Moe are you serious you think the BC Cons get some seats if there were by-elections?

Ryan1812 Ryan1812's picture

Mean Moe wrote:

Ryan1812 wrote:

Can anyone find information on the fact that any referendum is non-binding on the government. We all agree, I'm sure, it would be stupid for the government to ignore such a vote if it came to a referendum and it passed, but HOW is it possible that a referendum can be non-binding. That seems to me like a fundamental principl;e of democracy being undermined.

 To me this seems like an afront to democracy. We vote in a referendum when it comes and yet it's non-binding. How is that possible?

The Recall and Initiative Act- it is non-binding

Mean Moe

remind wrote:

Moe are you serious you think the BC Cons get some seats if there were by-elections?

Yes specifically:

 Peace River North,  Penticton, Chilliwack-Hope,  Peace River South,

Possibly,

 Kootenay East,  Shuswap,  Parksville-Qualicum

NDP wins:

 Boundary-Similkameen, Cariboo-Chilcotin,  Kamloops-North Thompson

All the Liberal seats in petition Top 10.

Mean Moe

Ryan1812 wrote:

Mean Moe wrote:

Ryan1812 wrote:

Can anyone find information on the fact that any referendum is non-binding on the government. We all agree, I'm sure, it would be stupid for the government to ignore such a vote if it came to a referendum and it passed, but HOW is it possible that a referendum can be non-binding. That seems to me like a fundamental principl;e of democracy being undermined.

 To me this seems like an afront to democracy. We vote in a referendum when it comes and yet it's non-binding. How is that possible?

The Recall and Initiative Act- it is non-binding

It's the law written by the BC NDP.

remind remind's picture

Hmmmm what about PG north and Pat Bell and PG Shirley Bond?

 

 

RevolutionPlease RevolutionPlease's picture

Hopefully people will think of altering politics.

Centrist

 

Firstly concerning recall - 40% of valid signatures are required from registered voters during the 60-day time-frame. Delta South had over 13,000 signatures collected during the 2003 recall campaign, which was in excess of the 40% required. Only 9,999 signatures (or 76%) were considered valid by Elections BC, however, and the recall petition failed. A 76% signature success rate. 

During 1999, the infamous Kevin Falcon instigated "TOTAL RECALL" against the then NDP government in order to remove the government but it did not get anywhere. Also remember that the NDP was polling in the cellar at the time - around 4 times worse than Gordo's LIEberals today. If it didn't work then, by the LIEberals, to remove NDP government MLAs it realistically won't work now.

That said, I will also be involved in one of those recall campaigns - just in case! The recall legislation was drafted to prevent a change of government and only to remove a specific MLA for malfeasance or other similar situations. Unlike recall (requiring 40% valid signatures over 60 days), the anti-HST initiative only requires 10% valid signatures over the longer 90-day period in each of the 85 ridings.

I agree that the Initiative will likely receive the valid 10% in all constituencies. The problem that I see is that the "HST Extinguishment Act", as drafted by Vander Zalm, contains some absurd language such as "it contravenes Section 92, Article 2, of the Constitution Act 1867". That's what people are signing up for when they sign the Initiative but only a Court can make that determination. Unfortunately, most people are not aware of these matters but I suspect that the LIEberals are - that Canwest scribe - Vaughn Palmer certainly is.  

When the Initiative is finally approved by Elections BC, I suspect that the LIEberals will request that it go for referendum - the next date is on Saturday 24, September, 2011. And the hoops to win that are bizarre. It will require:

Quote:
More than 50% of the total number of registered voters in the province and more than 50% of the total number of registered voters in each of at least 2/3 of the electoral districts in the province

In the last provincial election only about 50% of registered voters bothered to vote. And when a referendum is held on a Saturday over 1 year down the road, I doubt that 30% would even bother to show up. The turnout would probably be akin to a Saturday municipal election when only 20% - 30% even bother to show up.

Those are the unfortunate caveats behind our current initiative/referendum/recall process when one looks at the process realistically. Nevertheless, perhaps the HST is a game-changer. My 2 cents.

 

Centrist

Mean Moe wrote:
NDP wins:

 Boundary-Similkameen

If that seat would ever go to a by-election, the Con Joe Cardoso, who attained 20% in 2009, would easily pick that one up. The demographics are different than the NDP populist Bill Barlee's by-election win during the late 1980's under Vander Zalm's imploding administration.

The demographics have been increasingly been tilting right-ward with the Albertan/Ontarian retiree influx into the South Okanagan Valley and the Similkameen Valley to a much lesser extent. 

 

Mean Moe

Centrist wrote:

Mean Moe wrote:
NDP wins:

 Boundary-Similkameen

If that seat would ever go to a by-election, the Con Joe Cardoso, who attained 20% in 2009, would easily pick that one up. The demographics are different than the NDP populist Bill Barlee's by-election win during the late 1980's under Vander Zalm's imploding administration.

The demographics have been increasingly been tilting right-ward with the Albertan/Ontarian retiree influx into the South Okanagan Valley and the Similkameen Valley to a much lesser extent. 

 

I am using the results from 2009 as my baseline. The Lib-NDP spread was 4.5%. While the Conservatives were 17% back of the winner.  I can see alot of Liberal vote flowing to the Conservatives but not enough to make up that gap. That is a direct swing of 40% of Liberal voters. Not a likely scenario. The most likely scenario is that the Conservatives swing enough to let the NDp squeak in.

Jamie Deith

If this thing ever got to the referendum stage, an interesting question would be:

Do you want to repeal the HST and give $400 per person back to the federal government?

In any event, my read of the legislation suggests that winning this sort of referendum is next to impossible, because it requires getting a Yes vote out of 50% of registered voters, much more difficult than a simple majority of those who choose to vote.  You would have to miraculously get something like 2/3 support and a 75% turnout. Since voter turnout in the 2009 General+Referendum was only 50%....

Ryan1812 Ryan1812's picture

Mean Moe wrote:

Ryan1812 wrote:

Mean Moe wrote:

Ryan1812 wrote:

Can anyone find information on the fact that any referendum is non-binding on the government. We all agree, I'm sure, it would be stupid for the government to ignore such a vote if it came to a referendum and it passed, but HOW is it possible that a referendum can be non-binding. That seems to me like a fundamental principl;e of democracy being undermined.

 To me this seems like an afront to democracy. We vote in a referendum when it comes and yet it's non-binding. How is that possible?

The Recall and Initiative Act- it is non-binding

It's the law written by the BC NDP.

I don't care who wrote it, to be quite frank. What I want to know is how this kind of policy is allowed to stand on it's own merit. It's a referencum and that should be as binding as the choice between paper or plastic.