The real unemployment in Canada currently might be 21.6%

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bruce_the_vii
The real unemployment in Canada currently might be 21.6%

 

...................The real unemployment in Canada May 2010 might be 21.6%

 

 

The unemployment in Canada this May was 8.1% but in Alberta (Calgary) pre-recession more people entered the labour force because of job opportunities and by the comparison there are another 8.3% adults in Canada that would work. That is not the end of it. There are four other adjustments that can be made the Statistics Canada ignores.

 

Official

Unemployment........................................8.1%

 

Hidden

Work force.............................................8.3%

 

Involuntary

Part time

Equivalents

(Statistics Canada).....................................1.7%

 

Involuntary

Part time

Self Employed

(Guestimate)............................................0.7%

 

Best City in Alberta

Difference with my Standard of Calgary

(Red Deer, has more people working)...............1.8%

 

Improvement on Red Deer

Time and Pressure should get

More people back in the labour force.

(Guestimate).............................................1.0%

 

Total unemployment.....................................21.6%

 

The number of people in the labour force wobbles considerably and Statistics Canada is mute on this. However there are cities in the USA, the UK and Australia that all posted near Calgary level of people in the labour force so it's entirely likely the drop out rate is similar across Canada.

 

 

bruce_the_vii

Using the same considerations, the real unemployment in the Greater Toronto Area is 20.1% currently but 27.8% in the City of Toronto or 416 area.

 

If you got every Grand Mom that would take a part time job at the Mall for some extra cash for the family working the real unemployment in the City of Toronto would be that 27.8%

 

bruce_the_vii

The real unemployment in the City of Toronto may be 27% But the number of people earning less than $12 an hour is 16% of the labour force (2008). The addition of the two is 43%. Those whopper poverty statistics you see on Toronto have a lot to do with the economy not catching up to the population growth. The 43% would be a social issue and I'm actually writing a book on the political ferment in the city because of this. The ferment is quite, grumbling on the street and that.

Fidel

They don't want people working. Not while they're trying to put us in a debt hole as a favour to the creditor class and rich friends of the party.

Tommy_Paine

 

Whatever the unemployment rate actually is, we know the numbers released and quoted as the official "unemployment rate" are artificially skewed downward.

 

That's a problem in and of itself, but I think it leads to a larger problem, in that the people who skewed it in the first place start believing thier own lies.

 

I think this is happening.

bruce_the_vii

Tommy_Paine wrote:

 

Whatever the unemployment rate actually is, we know the numbers released and quoted as the official "unemployment rate" are artificially skewed downward.

 

That's a problem in and of itself, but I think it leads to a larger problem, in that the people who skewed it in the first place start believing thier own lies.

 

I think this is happening.

Something like that is actually happening. I don't see it as lies I see it as expertitis. I've looked at the unemployment statistic for years and the labour force level wobbles but Statistics Canada ignors this. In fact the entire OECD ignors this. It's important, critical, because if you get more people working there's significant tax revenues. I've been able to get a couple of institutions to look at the practice but actually I have more support in the Liberal back bench and this is where change in the attitude to unemployment would come from. The experts will argue their technical definitions are sounder science than the above.

Fidel

They were Liberals in government who did the skewing in the 1990s. How can you convince them to de-skew? Look to the NDP to un-skew what hath been skewed by the original skewers.Sk'you won't be disappointed.

Tommy_Paine

 

Realistically though, Fidel, do you want to be in a political party who saw unemployment rise from 8% to 27% overnight?  

 

I think we have to first start with a deffinition of "job".   If it isn't full time 40 hours, and if it doesn't pay enough to raise a family and if it doesn't have a certain baseline of benifits like prescription drugs and dental for example, then it ain't a job, for these statistical purposes.

bruce_the_vii

Tommy_Paine wrote:

 

Realistically though, Fidel, do you want to be in a political party who saw unemployment rise from 8% to 27% overnight?  

 

I think we have to first start with a deffinition of "job".   If it isn't full time 40 hours, and if it doesn't pay enough to raise a family and if it doesn't have a certain baseline of benifits like prescription drugs and dental for example, then it ain't a job, for these statistical purposes.

I see a political punch out in annoucing the unemployment is 27% rather than 8%. It'd be bloody punch. However it may be a winning strategy, politics is a like hockey - a blood sport.

 

As for the definition of a job the people don't call working a McDonalds "a job". They'll say they are at McDonald jsut now but they haven't found a job yet. That's the vernacular.

Fidel

Low wage philanthropy isn't real employment either.

That's right. And if the job doesn't last more than two seasons or whatever, it's not a real full-time job, and the statistics mongers should not be able to claim one was created. If the job disappears in four or five months,  did it ever really exist?

bruce_the_vii

Personnally I'm on about my 40th "job". I have a computer science degree from 1975, early on, but there was so much waste in that field it didn't work out. My wife is an Ontarion teacher, that's the flagship union in Ontario, so I'm comfortable.

Fidel

If you or anyone is a computer science grad, there should be lots of jobs in the information economy that never was, and is now going away. Don't lay all of the blame on the crooks running telecom and bailing at the end of the dot com bubble. There are more bubbles working their way through the neoliberal economy than just dot com. Was it more than just bad upper management? I think it was. The problem is with our debt driven monetary system driving manic boom-bust capitalist business cycles. Money and credit should be a means of exchange that it was intended to be and not a means unto itself for capitalists to get rich by. This "creative destruction" of the neoliberal baloneyism that they droned on about for years is just that, balogna. It's broken.

j.m.

Fidel wrote:

They were Liberals in government who did the skewing in the 1990s. How can you convince them to de-skew? Look to the NDP to un-skew what hath been skewed by the original skewers.Sk'you won't be disappointed.

Fidel, what stops the NDP from being disciplined by the very neoliberal agenda that has disciplined European states? Or developing states? Entertain me with a tall tale.

 

Fidel

j.m. wrote:

Fidel wrote:

They were Liberals in government who did the skewing in the 1990s. How can you convince them to de-skew? Look to the NDP to un-skew what hath been skewed by the original skewers.Sk'you won't be disappointed.

Fidel, what stops the NDP from being disciplined by the very neoliberal agenda that has disciplined European states? Or developing states? Entertain me with a tall tale.

A federal NDP government would be free to raise overall federal tax revenues(as a percentage of GDP) to a rate that is equivalent to just the OECD average. Billions of dollars more every year in federal revs to spend on social programs, higher education and skills training, R&D, and addressing the $100 billion dollar plus green infrastructure deficit in our Northern Puerto Rico. All kinds of jobs at that point.

And that would not be close to the EU-15 average, which is considerably higher than the OECD average, again as a percentage of GDP.

Tommy_Paine

Nothing, which will be one of the challenges for an NDP government in economic areas, and others.  I would hope when NDP intiatives are blocked or coerced, however, the NDP will tell us, and let us know just how much soverienty the Liberals and Conservatives have sold.

 

What has really been happening over the last couple of decades is no real increases in wages, coupled with job loss and job erosion.

 

As long as StatsCant can tell us we can lose four jobs at $25.00 ph, and a year later see two jobs created at $15.00 ph, and report to everyone that we've seen a gain of two jobs we're not dealing with reality at all.

 

Better economic indicators:  The number of tractor trailors crossing from Windsor to Detroit.  How often you get stopped at a rail way crossing for a frieght train.    The amount of backyard fireworks you see on May 24.

 

 

j.m.

Fidel wrote:

j.m. wrote:

Fidel wrote:

They were Liberals in government who did the skewing in the 1990s. How can you convince them to de-skew? Look to the NDP to un-skew what hath been skewed by the original skewers.Sk'you won't be disappointed.

Fidel, what stops the NDP from being disciplined by the very neoliberal agenda that has disciplined European states? Or developing states? Entertain me with a tall tale.

A federal NDP government would be free to raise overall federal tax revenues(as a percentage of GDP) to a rate that is equivalent to just the OECD average. Billions of dollars more every year in federal revs to spend on social programs, higher education and skills training, R&D, and addressing the $100 billion dollar plus green infrastructure deficit in our Northern Puerto Rico. All kinds of jobs at that point.

And that would not be close to the EU-15 average, which is considerably higher than the OECD average, again as a percentage of GDP.

I noticed that you tacked on "all kinds of jobs at that point". With those measures what stops 1) capital flight in a less-business friendly environment and 2) decreased tax revenues when increasing taxes would make our exports to the states more expensive?

I suspect that such hopes for a strategy are also completely separated from a reality of apathy toward politics / hostility towards socialist measures that are part of the neoliberal actors' strategies to increase the power of global institutions over states and th neoliberal/neocon revisionist strategy to tell us that we are at fault for demanding social security in multiple forms. Putting a hope and a wish in a political party to do all that is such a failure on our part to take collective responsibility for this political system and steer it out of the hands of corporations. I don't think putting our eggs in the basket of a federal scale of politics will deal with apathy, hostility towards the left, or the glaringly obvious realities of our export economy and the mobility of capital.

Fidel

1) A large part of the Canadian economy is fossil fuel and hydro-electric power exports. These are imports which corporate America could not replace easily in a global market. And Canada has an obligation to the rest of the world to help curb corporate America of its voracious appetite for cheap Canadian fossil fuels. We've been giving the stuff away for many years to the US when comparing oil royalties and natural resource export tax regimes in other countries.

Banks are profitable in Canada, and especially since the big bank heist of 1991. They can afford to pay higher taxes to the feds and still make hefty profits. And so on it goes. There are many profitable corporations in Canada in spite of recession. If they want to sit on their natural resources in Canada while operating closer to their home countries and maintaining employment in the US and elsewhere, then there are ways that a federal government could force them to deal.

2) Canada exports raw materials and massive amounts of total energy to the US(Canada is the largest single supplier of corporate America's energy needs), and Canada imports finished products from the US. Canada is the largest export customer for the US and their exports and have been since the 1950's. That country would not be in the driver's seat in the event of a trade war. Even Iggy stated as much last year in reference to Canada's energy exports. Canada could revert to trading with the US on a case by case basis with managed trade deals. Auto Pact was a good example of a managed trade deal working for many years in Canada. We did it before NAFTA, and we could trade freely with the US again given the political will.

In fact, Canada is only middle of the pack on federal tax revenues (as a percentage of GDP) among OECD nations and below the overall average. As I was saying before, we don't even come close to even the EU-15 average. In Nordic countries where social democrats have ruled or been in political opposition for long periods, it's even higher.

takeitslowly

I`ve been underemployed for almost two years..and i know many people are as well.

Fidel

Actually, I should have mentioned Linda McQuaig's Cult of Impotence wrt J.M. and his first point about capital flight. Near the end of the book McQuaig mentions an interesting conversation she had with Canadian economist Pierre Fortin. Since the end of Bretton Woods, all countries have policy options available to them from a new menu. Fortin and certain other economists and politicians believe we can have job creating populist policies if we want to as opposed to policies friendly to bondholders and Bay Street bond salesmen, ie. the creditor class. Ottawa could allow the value of the Canadian dollar to fall against other currencies for a time. Fortin doesn't believe foreign or domestic holders of Canadian debt and currency would abandon Canada for very long. Canada is a treasure trove of not only valuable natural resource wealth but of skills and talented workforce as well. Canada could be a world beater with the right leadership instead of our leaders in Ottawa acquiescing to the wishes of marauding capital and multinational corporations. Layton did his doctoral thesis on international capital flows. I think Jack would understand these issues as well as or better than any Canadian political leader today.

bruce_the_vii

bruce_the_vii wrote:

Using the same considerations, the real unemployment in the Greater Toronto Area is 20.1% currently but 27.8% in the City of Toronto or 416 area.

 

If you got every Grand Mom that would take a part time job at the Mall for some extra cash for the family working the real unemployment in the City of Toronto would be that 27.8%

 

 

The City of Toronto has steep unemployment compared to Alberta but pre-recession wage increases were perking along at about 4%. This is actually stagflation. That is clubby skilled and professional groups bidding up their price in the face of unemployment. Employers are giving pay raises instead of doing more on the job train, training of the next generation to fill jobs. It's interesting as employers are giving pay raises instead of training for intermediate and junior skilled and professionals while large unions have actually accepted very modest increases for two decades now.

People will question the 4% but the City of Toronto posts the figure monthly on their web.

In Alberta employment was tighter pre-recession and wage increase over national inflation were running at 7%. Calgary and Edmonton posted 7% wage increases while there was still hidden unemployment, I estimate. So inflation becomes high at significant real unemployment. My guesstimate that there was still hidden unemployment comes from limited data, that Red Deer had slightly  more people working. It's pretty limited data but makes sense because it takes people several years to return to the labour force, make alternative life plans. In Alberta the labour market was tight but there was probably the same resistance to training junior staff.

I still estimate the hidden unemployed in Canada is deep enough to cover for the aging population, increase the number of people working in the younger groups. This is where the tax money will come from to pay for the pensions.

 

bruce_the_vii

 

Annual Average Employees in Thousand 2008

 

 

 

TORONTO

CALGARY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BOTH SEX

 

 

 

 

 

 

15 YEARS AND OVER

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL EMPLOYEES

2447.7

594.7

TOTAL EMPLOYEES EARNING LESS THAN $12.00

488.3

63.9

PERCENTAGE OF EMPLOYEES EARNING LESS THAN $12.00

19.9

10.7

$6.99 OR LESS

19.2

2.1

$7.00-$11.99

469.1

61.8

$7.00-$9.99

265.2

22.9

$10.00-$10.99

122.5

24.4

$11.00-$11.99

81.4

14.5

MEDIAN HOURLY EARNINGS ( DOLLARS )

19.71

21.98

 

 

 

20 YEARS AND OVER

 

 

 

 

 

TOTAL EMPLOYEES

2331.1

556.5

TOTAL EMPLOYEES EARNING LESS THAN $12.00

383.8

41.3

PERCENTAGE OF EMPLOYEES EARNING LESS THAN $12.00

16.5

7.4

$6.99 OR LESS

18.8

1.9

$7.00-$11.99

364.9

39.4

$7.00-$9.99

177.5

12.6

$10.00-$10.99

109.7

15.0

$11.00-$11.99

77.7

11.9

MEDIAN HOURLY EARNINGS ( DOLLARS )

20.00

23.00

bruce_the_vii

test table format

bruce_the_vii

test table formating

bruce_the_vii

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