BC Cabinet Minister resigns over the HST

HST is mugging without representation. They might want to look at other options, like:

Harmonized wealth tax on rich friends of the BC Liberal Party of B.C.(HWTRFLPBC)?

Harmonized tax on corporate friends of the Liberal Party of BC(HCTCFLPBC)?

It might even catch on in other provinces. And if not, then it could be an indication that we need to doff and ditch and break free from the neoliberal straight jacket imposed on the federal-provincial setup in this country.

We need real leadership in Ottawa before the failed ideology Balkanizes our Northern Puerto Rico beyond repair.

Vansterdam Kid wrote:

They must be really freaked out about that poll showing them at 26%. Shades of the NDP in 1997?

Yeah, they certainly are sweatiing bullets at 26%. That's the lowest that they have been since - well - never. The problem is that the NDP are at 46% - just 4% above our election showing - and under the current circumstances are still not able to hit 50% or above. It's apparent that the average voter is still concerned about Carole James, if not the NDP, in their MSN-conceived perceptions.

Mustel had the LIEberals at 67% to 17% in its November, 2000 survey -  a 50% spread. It would be nice to see Carole with those numbers but the NDP still seems to be stuck just above our 2009 election result. Hopefully, that 'magic' number of 50%+ will be just over the political horizon for us.

OK I found it:

http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/2010.06.10_Poli...

THis one has a sample size of over 1,600 - that's very robust! Anyways, the reality is that outside of Alberta and Danny Williams - its almost unheard of in Canada for any party to get over 50% of the vote. Right now the poll might say NDP 46% and BC Libs 26% - but just as sure as night follows day - you know that the 14% Green will evaporate to about 7% and the losses will go NDP (that's what happened in 2005 and 2009) - and I think there is a very good chance that in the next BC election you'll see a BC Conservative party running candidates in every riding.

Its interesting to compare how the NDP was losing 60-18 in the polls by 2000 - while the BC Liberals at their worse (ie: right now) still hold on to 26%. I think the reason is that the core rightwing vote is more willing to stick it out for ideological reasons come hell or high water. There is a good 25% in BC who are rich people with rightwing views who will vote for the Social Credit/BC Liberal/Anti-NDP party - no matter what - even if the leader of the Social Credit/BC Liberal/Anti-NDP party were caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy! The NDP base is more fickle - there is a much smaller proportion of the population who will vote NDP no matter what just to keep the Social Credit/BC Liberal/Anti-NDP party out of power.

Centrist wrote:

Vansterdam Kid wrote:

They must be really freaked out about that poll showing them at 26%. Shades of the NDP in 1997?

 

Yeah, they certainly are sweatiing bullets at 26%. That's the lowest that they have been since - well - never. The problem is that the NDP are at 46% - just 4% above our election showing - and under the current circumstances are still not able to hit 50% or above. It's apparent that the average voter is still concerned about Carole James, if not the NDP, in their MSN-conceived perceptions.

Mustel had the LIEberals at 67% to 17% in its November, 2000 survey -  a 50% spread. It would be nice to see Carole with those numbers but the NDP still seems to be stuck just above our 2009 election result. Hopefully, that 'magic' number of 50%+ will be just over the political horizon for us.

 

Well, I only mentioned 1997 because at that point the NDP were unpopular, but they hadn't gotten anywhere near rock bottom. From what I remember they still held onto a significant portion of their base with populist-esque moves like fighting the Americans and federal government over the Nanoose Bay issue, amongst others. So they were still polling in the 25-30% range, just like the Lieberals right now. I suspect that the bottom hasn't fallen out of the Liberal vote yet either and I wouldn't be surprised to see the NDP in at least the 55-60% range within the next year or two.

Let's not forget that the BC Rail trial has only just started to heat up. So who knows what else is going to come out of that? Especially with regards to former ministers who didn't run for re-election in 2005 like Judith Reid, or Gary Collins or Christy Clarke. All three left under, err, suspicious circumstances. Not to mention the possibility that Blair Lekstrom's resignation may only be the first of many. An unstable government isn't a popular one. Not to mention the generally weak economic climate. That will not play to the government's favour over the next three years.

I've been critical of the BC NDP strategy in the last three years, but their generally skittish nature is playing dividends here as the best thing to do when someone is self-destructing is to let them do it. Doesn't mean the NDP won't have work to do, but 2001 may yet be avenged in style. I'm willing to be patient this time.

Good question, robbie, perhaps.

There is also a huge backlash growing amongst seniors in respect to the cuts to Meals on Wheels, and all seniors programing.

Pretty damn stupid of Gordo et al, to cut, actually stop not just cut, seniors funding and programs, as BC has majority seniors population and they are the ones that come out to vote.

Recall campaigns could put targets on the backs of these MLAs

Saanich North and the Islands. Cabinet minister Murray Coell won by just 250 votes in the last election. His constituents put Saanich in the top 10 in the signature count on the anti-HST petition. Plus the riding has the most stable voters list in the province, according to the last survey by Elections BC. The folks who were on the voters list at the last election (the only ones eligible to participate in recalls) are still there to sign the petition against him.

Cariboo-Chilcotin. Liberal Donna Barnett won by just 88 votes. Her riding leads the province in terms of signatures, having exceeded the target set by petition organizers by a factor of three. But finding enough signatures to recall her might not be as easy as it looks. Just 70 per cent of eligible voters were registered correctly, according to Elections BC.

Boundary-Similkameen. Organizers of the anti-HST campaign say that almost twice as many people have signed the petition as voted for Liberal MLA John Slater last election. Only cause for doubt is the less-than-optimum state of the voters list. About 60-per-cent current, according to the last survey.

Vernon-Monashee. Liberal MLA Eric Foster was elected with just 37 per cent of the vote, the lowest share of any winning candidate in 2009. Despite that, the petition drive has lagged a bit behind other ridings in the Okanagan, suggesting the local organization might not be as strong as it could be.

Burnaby North. Richard Lee carried this seat for the Liberals with just 600 votes, a 10-fold improvement on his winning margin in 2005. Throw in one of the most stable voters lists in the province, the biggest sign-up of any of the four Burnaby ridings, and you've got one of the best prospects for recall in the Lower Mainland.

Kamloops-North Thompson. Terry Lake, the government-designated chair of the committee on initiatives, is a prime target for recall if the Liberals are seen to be stalling the petition. His margin of victory was just 500 votes. But at the last survey of the riding, only three voters in four were reported to be registered correctly.

Peace River North. Second-best tally on the initiative petition. Practically part of Alberta in its dislike of sales taxes. Liberal MLA Pat Pimm finished 1,000 votes ahead of an upstart independent, Arthur Hadland. Doubts? Just that 2009 Elections BC survey, which found only half of eligible voters were registered correctly.

Maple Ridge-Mission. Liberal MLA Marc Dalton emerged from an election-night cliffhanger with a 68-vote victory, smallest of any government member. He'd be ranked higher on the list of prospects for recall were it not that the riding ranked in the bottom third of the voters list survey and it has also lagged comparatively in the petition drive.

Vancouver-Fraserview. Vancouver has been less-than-easy pickings for the initiative campaign. Nobody home during the day. Apartment buildings closed to canvassers. Residents for whom English is a second language. But if any riding in the city breaks the pattern on recall, it will likely be the one represented by ex-solicitor-general Kash Heed. Many New Democrats see his 2009 victory as theft, given the criminal charges laid against key figures in his campaign.

Oak Bay-Gordon Head. Cabinet minister Ida Chong squeaked in with a margin of two per cent. Relatively stable voters list. Solid, though not overwhelming support for the petition.

Saanich North and the Islands. Cabinet minister Murray Coell won by just 250 votes in the last election. His constituents put Saanich in the top 10 in the signature count on the anti-HST petition. Plus the riding has the most stable voters list in the province, according to the last survey by Elections BC. The folks who were on the voters list at the last election (the only ones eligible to participate in recalls) are still there to sign the petition against him.

Cariboo-Chilcotin. Liberal Donna Barnett won by just 88 votes. Her riding leads the province in terms of signatures, having exceeded the target set by petition organizers by a factor of three. But finding enough signatures to recall her might not be as easy as it looks. Just 70 per cent of eligible voters were registered correctly, according to Elections BC.

Boundary-Similkameen. Organizers of the anti-HST campaign say that almost twice as many people have signed the petition as voted for Liberal MLA John Slater last election. Only cause for doubt is the less-than-optimum state of the voters list. About 60-per-cent current, according to the last survey.

Vernon-Monashee. Liberal MLA Eric Foster was elected with just 37 per cent of the vote, the lowest share of any winning candidate in 2009. Despite that, the petition drive has lagged a bit behind other ridings in the Okanagan, suggesting the local organization might not be as strong as it could be.

Burnaby North. Richard Lee carried this seat for the Liberals with just 600 votes, a 10-fold improvement on his winning margin in 2005. Throw in one of the most stable voters lists in the province, the biggest sign-up of any of the four Burnaby ridings, and you've got one of the best prospects for recall in the Lower Mainland.

Kamloops-North Thompson. Terry Lake, the government-designated chair of the committee on initiatives, is a prime target for recall if the Liberals are seen to be stalling the petition. His margin of victory was just 500 votes. But at the last survey of the riding, only three voters in four were reported to be registered correctly.

Peace River North. Second-best tally on the initiative petition. Practically part of Alberta in its dislike of sales taxes. Liberal MLA Pat Pimm finished 1,000 votes ahead of an upstart independent, Arthur Hadland. Doubts? Just that 2009 Elections BC survey, which found only half of eligible voters were registered correctly.

Maple Ridge-Mission. Liberal MLA Marc Dalton emerged from an election-night cliffhanger with a 68-vote victory, smallest of any government member. He'd be ranked higher on the list of prospects for recall were it not that the riding ranked in the bottom third of the voters list survey and it has also lagged comparatively in the petition drive.

Vancouver-Fraserview. Vancouver has been less-than-easy pickings for the initiative campaign. Nobody home during the day. Apartment buildings closed to canvassers. Residents for whom English is a second language. But if any riding in the city breaks the pattern on recall, it will likely be the one represented by ex-solicitor-general Kash Heed. Many New Democrats see his 2009 victory as theft, given the criminal charges laid against key figures in his campaign.

Oak Bay-Gordon Head. Cabinet minister Ida Chong squeaked in with a margin of two per cent. Relatively stable voters list. Solid, though not overwhelming support for the petition.

Kootenay East. Bill Bennett surprised a lot of observers in the last election, pulling more than 50 per cent of the vote in a two-way race against the New Democrats and Conservative leader Wilf Hanni. But he also has the dubious distinction among cabinet ministers of representing the riding with the highest tally on the initiative petition.

Prince George-Mackenzie. Cabinet minister Pat Bell won comfortably last time. But given the likelihood that recallers will want to target one of the three government-held ridings in the region, Mackenzie has the more up-to-date voters list and it has also shown the most enthusiasm for the initiative petition.

Bubbling under the top dozen: Shuswap, represented by George Abbott. Comox Valley (Don McRae). Penticton (Bill Barisoff). Burnaby-Lougheed (Harry Bloy). Parksville-Qualicum (Ron Cantelon).

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Recall+campaigns+could+targets+backs+th...

Vansterdam Kid wrote:

I wouldn't be surprised to see the NDP in at least the 55-60% range within the next year or two.

For that to happen, no one else could be above 15%

Let's see:

1 - losing a cabinet minister and a caucus member,

2 - the resignation of the past three solicitor-generals, whatever.

3 - the BC Rail trail finally in court

4 - premier found guilty of drunk-driving

5 - North Shore Liberal MLA charged with drunk-driving

What else? 

I presume the NDP will now be approaching Blair.

Let's not forget to tie Harper into this HST mess as well, after all he's in it up to his eyeballs.

Just in case Remind jumps down my throat again and attacks me,

Let me be clear that Global did not say that it was a 100% certainty that a new party will be formed. They only speculated that it was a very possible outcome.

NR, good joke about Bill Vander Zalm. Heartiest laugh I've had all day. Thanks!

Stockholm wrote:

Hmmm...how many Liberals would have to leave the caucus to cause the BC Liberals to lose their majority and become a minority government?

6 more

Is Ida Chong the next Blair Lekstrom project resignation?

NorthReport wrote:

Splitting ther rightwing vote into 2 parties may be the only way the BC NDP can win. I can only pray it will happen.

It is the only way.

NorthReport wrote:

Splitting the rightwing vote into 2 parties may be the only way the BC NDP can win. I can only pray it will happen.

In 1991, the NDP was able to win a majority government without a split in the right-wing vote.  Wilson and the Liberals were a fly in the ointment to be sure but I'm not sure that I would call Wilson a disgrunted social credit member. The latest polls have the NDP at 46%. If the NDP comes in at 46-47%, we can win even with 53% of the vote going to other parties. B.C. NDP vote is highly efficient in winning seats and 46-47% should be more than enough for a majority.

To be sure, a split was required when Campbell and the liberal brand were popular but that is no longer the case.

Keep in mind that for a couple of years and right up to that famous debate one week before election day that led to the Gordon Wilson BC Liberal surge - the NDP was routinely over 50% in the polls and had a 20 point lead over Social Credit. The BC NDP was poised to win in a landslide in 1991 regardless of whether there was any split on the right - especially since under Gordon Wilson, the BC Liberals were more of a small "l" liberal party that also took votes from the NDP.

Rob8305 wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Splitting the rightwing vote into 2 parties may be the only way the BC NDP can win. I can only pray it will happen.

In 1991, the NDP was able to win a majority government without a split in the right-wing vote.  Wilson and the Liberals were a fly in the ointment to be sure but I'm not sure that I would call Wilson a disgrunted social credit member. The latest polls have the NDP at 46%. If the NDP comes in at 46-47%, we can win even with 53% of the vote going to other parties. B.C. NDP vote is highly efficient in winning seats and 46-47% should be more than enough for a majority.

To be sure, a split was required when Campbell and the liberal brand were popular but that is no longer the case.

The strength of the BC Reform Party in 1996 was enough to enable a Glen Clark victory even with less than 40% of the popular vote.

"Bring in a Gary Doer and that matter should be rectified."

Gary Doer? wasn't he the one who lost three elections in a row as Manitoba NDP leader and was written off as a failure?

Also, in the 1980s, there was no so-called Green party in BC that about 15% of anti-Socreds could park their votes with so it was more of a pure two-way race (until about one week before the 1991 election).

As I've said before, I don't think it matters who leads the NDP in BC and what the party talks about - there will always be about one third of people in BC who are rightiwng to the core and will vote Socred/BC Liberal no matter what. Compare it to the 46% of Americans who voted for John McCain and Sarah palin!

Rob8305 wrote:

A third party is the last thing I want. The NDP has been out of power for 9 years. It is our turn (I live in B.C.) come 2013. Not some wacko third party that captures the imaignation of the uninformed masses.

The BC NDP have been helping promote a right wing populist anti-tax movement.  It will likely take two elections but it will eat the NDP in the end.  Just like the last time.  One term for the NDP then a "new' people's party arises, takes power and then its cabinet starts it love fest with Howe Street all over again.  Coming to this province soon.

People should also not forget that no matter how many MLA's cross the house this government is not going have another sitting for at least 9 months.  

One of my best laughs was when someone above said that the BC NDP should talk to Blair.  

Maybe so but the BC NDP doesn't want revolution just power.

See there you go Stockholm with the damn straw men.  I have never said the tax was a great idea.  I am making the point that sharing a stage with right wing populists does nothing to educate the electorate about progressive policies and merely muddies the waters and shows that the BC NDP has no ideas of its own and will join any band wagon if they think it is headed towards power.

I thought nothing could rehabilitate the Zalm after his nasty anti-worker and anti-poor people agenda in government.  But hey, go share a stage with him so people will understand that a right wing anti-poor politician is really the best we have to offer on policy matters. This is one piss poor long term strategy IMO and is going to lead to the NDP getting beaten after one term by the new populists like Blair, who is as much a friend of the poor and marginalized as the Zalm was.

Vansterdam Kid wrote:

Remind I rarely agree with your take on Carole James, and found your traditional "now that women have brought it back from the brink it is time [for a man] to take over" defence of her leadership annoying as fuck (seeing as I still think she's a relatively crappy leader even if she's handling this situation well); but Centrist's "shrill" comment was pretty shrill in itself, a little eyebrow raising and one of the few times I've seen someone make a comment about her that made me actually agree with your reasoning.

Are we on our way to an epiphany?

If so, how abouts I add to the learning curve a bit?!

"Traditional"? Surely you can see how problematic your use of that is as a descriptor? In actual fact, one could consider it equal to "shrill".

As a woman, I have lived in this sexist world for a half a century, and I have heard every sideways slap at women that there is to hear, as such, when I  call someone on it, I, usually am knowing, of what I speak...

Contrary to popular sentiment, by some men here, I do not throw that accusation around all the time, not even  10% of the time, perhaps not even 1%. I name it when I see it. But men DO NOT like it when they are called on it, so I get "you always use that..." or, "Identity Politics". As opposed to understanding WOMEN are the ones who are experiencing it, if men cannot see it in their words, then they should be accepting of what  women are telling them. Or give it more than a token throw-away thought because one is irritated  that one was called on it..

And it is the truth, that it has been the women of the NDP who saved the party, whilst the men destroyed it, if the men do not like hearing that truth, too bad, too. It is also truth that more women vote for the NDP than men, but yet the men feel they have all the truths to lead the NDP into a 'stellar' future....   :rolleyes:

Been there and done that, thanks...but no thanks.

....am really happy you at least saw a glimour of the sexism at play in this though ;)

Finally, am not so enamoured of Carole that I cannot see where some issues lay, but I look around at the men in the NDP caucus and I am less enamoured with them, than I am with Carole. As such, it is my view she should be staying exactly where she is at.

It seems to me that the only people who call Carol James "shrill" are people who just assume that "female politician ipso-facto = shrill". 

I actually find her voice quite mellifluous. If someone was going to criticize her for being too "nice and conciliatory" and maybe not "tough enough" as an ideologue - I might not agree but i could see how someone might think that - but "shrill"??? To me that's what you say when you want to criticize someone who happens to be female and you don't actually know anything about her your so you take a wild guess "hmm she's a women she MUST be shrill - so I'll throw it out there as a cheap ad hominem insult".

Doesn't matter the context, nor that many others use the sexist word too.....Centrist

kropotkin1951 wrote:

This is one piss poor long term strategy IMO ...

I think HST is a poor strategy too. They're taxing the wrong people.

And not only that,  the Liberals are taxing the wrong people at the wrong time.

We have to force right wing Liberals to think in Keynesian terms when it comes to raising taxes.

Taxing those most able to afford tax hikes would be Keynesian.

Taxing those most unable to afford it would be Herbert Hooverian. During depression era America, Herbert Hoover raised taxes on for the bottom half of Americans, and it made a bad economic situation worse.

You won't find many NDPers agreeing to raise taxes on those who can't afford them.

The Neoliberal voodoo isn't working.

remind wrote:

Finally, am not so enamoured of Carole that I cannot see where some issues lay, but I look around at the men in the NDP caucus and I am less enamoured with them, than I am with Carole. As such, it is my view she should be staying exactly where she is at.

 

I definitely like Carole a whole lot better than Mike, Moe or Bruce.  My biggest problem these days with Carole is she seems to be in the grip of the same cabal that has run the BC NDP for much to long.  I suspect the back room boys are desperately seeking a new UJhal to lead us to a left liberal future and I expect to see the knifes out soon.