who knows - if they even just remain stuck in the low 30s it will be enough to wreck their plans to try to force an early election.
There will be no federal election in 2010
Wed, 2010-06-30 23:57
#102
Thu, 2010-07-01 00:05
#103
I can see OO's 'doesnt look great but only gets worse' scenario for Harper pushing the button playing out even if the Cons cannot get unstuck at the polls.
Aside from the strong strategic considerations against waiting for better, they can reasonably expect that once the spotlight of a campaign is on, to hammer Iggy and the listless LPC organization.
Thu, 2010-07-01 00:15
#104
It seems almost certain that the budget the Tories will have to bring in in spring 2011 will have a lot of poison pills that the opposition may vote down...
Thu, 2010-07-01 00:20
#105
Only if the Cons want an election. And since they don't need subterfuges any more, the existence of cover like that has receeded to being a negligible to non-existant factor.
And the Liberals will vote for just about anything.
Thu, 2010-07-01 00:21
#106
A vastly more likely solution is that we would go through two more years of endless games of Russian roulette - the country will seem to be on the brink of an election in the fall, then again in the spring, then again in the fall, then again in the spring - so even if we we actually did make it to 2012 with no election - there will be no break from the never ended speculation of an election and so no chance for the Liberals to collectively breathe a sigh of relief and say to themselves "phew!! we have two years to force out Iggy and pick a new equally bad leader!"
And all parties will be able to keep pumping their donor base with "we must be ready" warnings. Just as well for the Liberals' bankers. Would you lend $10 million to a party on the strength of future grants that could vanish overnight?
Thu, 2010-07-01 01:05
#107
Harper will get zero momentum from the G8 (if anything he will have anti-momentum)
Why don't you think he will get any momentum?
Thu, 2010-07-01 01:08
#108
But I still see plenty of reason for Harper to keep playing it out.
The unlikelihood of a majority just increases, hence losing government even with the Liberals in dissaray.
That means going to the polls is taking a very big risk at losing, when the status quo works. And you have every reason to expect it to work for another two plus years. So you get all that time to govern, plus the bonus of who knows what might turn up by then in your favour.
[And the chances that the Liberals will be ready to pull the plug on you when you may be looking real bad in 2011.... the small chance there once was the Liberals would be ready for that.... that 'threat' has just about vanished.
Thu, 2010-07-01 10:13
#109
Boom Boom
I still believe the Liberals are scared stiff of an election... various reasons which may have to be evaluated carefully include: party disarray and infighting, lousy party finances, weak spineless leader, lack of organization, volunteers, and vision. There may be others - do they have a full slate of 308 candidates?
Thu, 2010-07-01 11:45
#110
The Liberals will be in disarray no matter when an election is held - so if I were them i would want an election at a time of the opposition's choosing and not when Harper thinks its to his advantage. In any case despite all of their disarray - I think that there is still about an 80% chance a Liberal will be PM after the next election.
Thu, 2010-07-01 12:19
#111
The billion dollar price tag is a drag on his base, and the impingements on civil liberties make his swing voters uncomfortable. They might not like the protests, and they might be inclined to believe the police under many situations, but most people would wish it had never come to that, and for that they blame the fake lake PM. It might not be enough to see him drop in the polls, but it is probably enough to keep him from rising again and staying there.
Thu, 2010-07-01 12:37
#112
The Liberals are certainly not at their best in terms of organization or direction at the moment, but based on the most recent poll last week, the Liberals could gain seats in the next election and the Conservatives lose them:
Thu, 2010-07-01 19:35
#113
Debater, no-one else in the country believes that the Liberals under Michael Ignatieff are going to win seats from anyone.
Thu, 2010-07-01 20:33
#114
Long thread!
Don't count on Stephen 'Der Feuher' Harper waiting until 2012 for an election.
He wants Iggy to be the Liberal leader when Canadians go to the polls next, so I'm standing by my earlier prediction of a 2011 budget loaded with things that the Liberals couldn't support, forcing a spring election.
The big question for me is Gilles Duceppe. Does he want to go through another election, now that he's been in Ottawa for 20 years? If he leaves, and a more hard-line sovereignist takes over, do the other parties stand to gain ground in Quebec?
Sun, 2010-07-04 01:01
#115
I actually think that Ignatief's Liberals might win some of the seats back that they lost.
This would not be a huge success considering how low the Liberals are, but really things could go either way-- depending on the timing and issues at the time, the Liberals could either win or lose seats. In fact I think that is true of all parties for different reasons-- the Liberals because they are so low they do not have to do all that much to gain a few close seats back.
If this country slips back in to recession by next year-- something I think is very possible, then Harper could lose his government.
Sun, 2010-07-04 07:19
#116
In Britain, even William Hague's Tories won seats back in 2001. (Still remained basically flat, but...)
Sun, 2010-07-04 08:11
#117
Maysie
Yes, long thread. Please continue in a new one, if you must.
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