Given how much money the government is going to cut on everything else this so called defense spending is going to have to come from somewhere.
As the NDP now has 20% support, what does the NDP have to do to move its support to 25%, Part 5
Tue, 2010-06-08 00:43
#52
Tue, 2010-06-08 01:17
#53
The Liberals just voted with the government on the amendments to the Budget Implementation Bill today. After third reading tomorrow, NR, the budget will be approved by the House, and go to the Senate.
Tue, 2010-06-08 02:11
#54
Can't this purchase be voted down by the opposition before Harper bankrupct's Canada with his defense contracts?
Here is a golden opportunity for the NDP to attack Harper's fiscal mismanagement which actually merits a thread of its own.
Shades of the Mulroney-Schreiber-Swiss Bank Acounts-Airbus contracts anyone?
Ottawa set to spend $9-billion on 65 U.S. fighter jets
Contract with Lockheed-Martin would be awarded without competition 'to lock up the price'
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-set-to-spend-9-billi...
Mon, 2010-06-14 11:33
#55
And it now sounds like one of the Sun Media's best political writers, Greg Weston is in trouble.
Grit dissent could be a 'killer' for party in next election, says a top pollster
Pollster Nik Nanos says, 'When you get into a writ, that's what I'll call a killer issue.'
The Liberal strife, exposed and stirred up further by wild-card backroomer Warren Kinsella's declaration last week, backed up by his own sworn affidavit, of top-level merger talks with the NDP, denied by Mr. Ignatieff (Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Ont.), added to party woes created by the bleeding of Liberal support to the NDP. That phenomenon in itself has increased the chances that Mr. Harper might form the majority government that slipped through his grasp in the past two elections.
Mon, 2010-06-21 14:51
#56
Fall election. Really!
NDP rallies the troops for a fall election
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/ndp-rallies...
Mon, 2010-06-21 17:18
#57
There was a poster here who recently typed that the NDP was not radical enough. That every time they get in power....
WTF ???!!! THEY'VE NEVER FORMED FEDERAL GOV'T !!!!!!!!!
arrrrrrrrrrrrrgh !
(whew, vent)
If we friggen vote for them and stop voting for Libs and Cons we can finally start changing this country. And if the NDP aren't left enough for you, start up the CSP (Canadian Socialist Party). Words & Action = Results. Simple.
And turn the cynical defeatist dial down to 0.
Mon, 2010-06-21 17:58
#58
Fall election. Really!
NDP rallies the troops for a fall election
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/ndp-rallies...
How stupid is this "strategist"?
So stupid they disclose our entire strategy to the national media. Great Job!
I got this fundraising kit and found it to be wonderfully packaged and professionally put together. What is the benefit to taking what should be internal communication, and putting out there to the masses? If it's to make the Cons scared, then I don't think it will do the job. If it's to tell the membership 'hey, we're really serious about winning,' then they already did that with the package itself.
It sounds like someone has an ego problem and leaked something to the media to enhance their own status. Is it going to really hurt our chances in these regions or target areas? Not terminally, but having it out there for the opponents to see allows them to launch a counter-fundraising letter to fend off the socialist hoardes and gird for the now declared war.
This 'leak' is certainly not the dumbest thing that I have seen in politics recently, but it does come off as vain and stupid on the part of 'strategist' who should be stripped of his/her title.
Mon, 2010-06-21 18:43
#59
I have to say the 'Taking Aim' thing is a really good idea. Identify the areas where we're strongest and poised for a breakthrough, then give them the resources to punch through the Tory lines. It's a combative initiative that shows the party is ready for a fight. I know I am.
Mon, 2010-06-21 19:28
#60
Fall election. Really!
NDP rallies the troops for a fall election
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/ndp-rallies...
How stupid is this "strategist"?
So stupid they disclose our entire strategy to the national media. Great Job!
This isn't a campaign strategy, it's a fundraising letter. Does anybody actually believe the NDP will pour extra money & resources into ridings where they finished 2nd over but over 45% behind the Conservatives (19 out of the 51)?
Mon, 2010-06-21 20:23
#61
No. I believe the party will target Edmonton Centre, Westmount, Nunavut, South Shore Saint Margaret, Hochelaga, Gatineau, and Saskatoon Rosetown Biggar because we just publicly declared it.
Publicizing private fundraising efforts in this way just lends itself to a stiffer counter-fundraising effort. It's fodder for the opposition, and it comes off as amateur and stupid on the communications side. The fundraising material itself is brilliant and the best stuff I seen the party put out.
I can't discern any "strategic" benefit from the "strategist" releasing this information. Again, it is not a catrastrophic error in publicizing your 'strategy' or target ridings to some degree, as I am sure the opposition knows to some degree what ridings you are after generally speaking, but what good can come from it?
My question is then; what benefit can be gained from broadcasting this information?
Mon, 2010-06-21 20:42
#62
My question is then; what benefit can be gained from broadcasting this information?
It's spin for the media, what every party does. I didn't see anything in Brad Lavigne's letter that he doesn't already say when he appears on those TV panels. You feed it to a certain "journalist" at the Globe & Mail who is a specialist in regurgitating the talking points of political parties. Throw out some facts; "In total, the NDP placed 2nd in 51 Conservative ridings!" & have it covered in the media in order to convey the message you want-"We're on the move! We're gonna take down Harper! It's a 2 way race, it's him or us! Go team!" As for disclosing which seats you're tageting, everyone in every party knows this, they can read the results of past elections. It's not exactly confidential information.
Mon, 2010-06-21 20:48
#63
What's the gain? The benefit?
Fundraising is great - it should get a nice return on the investment, but what is to be gained by 'calling out' 6 or 7 ridings you are targeting?
It sounds to me like an ego trip by a "strategist," but I can be persuaded otherwise if someone has a reasonable theory.
Mon, 2010-06-21 22:29
#64
Well, if you'd like a reasoned argument to the contrary, it would go something like this:
Problem Description:
* It's difficult for the NDP to break through their ceiling of 20-25%, because of the pervasive media narrative that (i) they can never form the government (a self-fulfilling prophecy if repeated often enough), and (ii) that they are mainly competing with Liberals (an erroneous assumption that speaks more to the media's Toronto and Ottawa focus), and thus not only cannot hope to grow, but if they did, it would not cut into the Conservatives' bench strength. Moreover, the party sometimes encounters criticisms from some "progressives" for "going after" the Liberals rather than the "more evil" Conservatives.
Objectives:
* Remind people that the NDP competes against Conservatives in many seats, and can reduce the government's seat count directly.
* Remind people that the NDP is competitive in many more regions of the country than the Liberals who are now whittled down to Toronto, west Montreal, wealthy Vancouver, and the atlantic provinces, and shrinking.
* Get the media to report on the NDP's election preparation now, so that later they will stop reporting that "the NDP doesn't want an election/isn't ready for an election", and will then start asking how prepared the Liberals are.
* Take advantage of the opening provided by the Liberals admitting they likely can't form a majority government on their own, to offer another viable alternative. Make that alternative look viable.
Now, how to meet those objectives? Actually, I think they package they sent out meets all those objectives. In particular, I did smile at the part where they stressed how confidential it all was. In my experience, as soon as you say that, you can pretty much guarantee that someone will send it to the media. And, thinking they've got a big scoop, the media might actually write about it.
Come to think of it, when was the last time you saw Jane Taber write approvingly of the NDP's strategy. Mission accomplished on all scores, I'd say.
Also, by the way, this is not the first time the party's new strategy has been quite open about its objectives. I remember last year they publicized the 10 Conservative ridings (5 each in Ontario and BC) in which they were buying radio ads to target the Conservatives over the HST.
Since the media is obsessed with reporting strategy and tactics, this gives them something concrete to chew on. It also motivates people in the party's riding associations, who historically have not been very active between elections, to try and step up their game locally, so the party can target more seats than they have before.
That's my take on it, anyways. And I don't buy the "ego trip" argument. Most research into fundraising says that folks respond to individuals more than to abstract ideas. It just seems like an unfair thing, if you don't grasp the strategy, to dismiss it all as an ego trip. That would be a pretty expensive ego trip, and unlikely to be approved by the campaign committee, if you stop and think about it.
Mon, 2010-06-21 23:03
#65
Boom Boom
I saw CTV's QP Sunday, Jim Travers said the NDP have done very well this session, and Jane Taber looked somewhat taken aback, speechless I guess is the word.
Tue, 2010-06-22 02:09
#66
No. I believe the party will target Edmonton Centre, Westmount, Nunavut, South Shore Saint Margaret, Hochelaga, Gatineau, and Saskatoon Rosetown Biggar because we just publicly declared it.
So? It's quite obvious to everyone what each of the parties' target ridings are because anyone can find them by looking for all the near-misses from last election.
Tue, 2010-06-22 07:21
#67
This isn't a campaign strategy, it's a fundraising letter. Does anybody actually believe the NDP will pour extra money & resources into ridings where they finished 2nd over but over 45% behind the Conservatives (19 out of the 51)?
I do. Look at what happened with Edmonton Strathcona last time, and what might happen to Edmonton Centre next time. To win a riding, you need a great candidate who has got the resources to do the job.
Tue, 2010-06-22 08:55
#68
Edmund's right. With the right candidate, many ridings having a decent demographic fit can become winnable, in spite of what the previous numbers say. St. John's East is the example I'd use. Yukon would be another example, and I'm sure I could come up with several other prospective ones given a bit of time.
Tue, 2010-06-22 10:30
#69
Well, if you'd like a reasoned argument to the contrary, it would go something like this:
Problem Description:
* It's difficult for the NDP to break through their ceiling of 20-25%, because of the pervasive media narrative that (i) they can never form the government (a self-fulfilling prophecy if repeated often enough), and (ii) that they are mainly competing with Liberals (an erroneous assumption that speaks more to the media's Toronto and Ottawa focus), and thus not only cannot hope to grow, but if they did, it would not cut into the Conservatives' bench strength. Moreover, the party sometimes encounters criticisms from some "progressives" for "going after" the Liberals rather than the "more evil" Conservatives.
Objectives:
* Remind people that the NDP competes against Conservatives in many seats, and can reduce the government's seat count directly.
* Remind people that the NDP is competitive in many more regions of the country than the Liberals who are now whittled down to Toronto, west Montreal, wealthy Vancouver, and the atlantic provinces, and shrinking.
* Get the media to report on the NDP's election preparation now, so that later they will stop reporting that "the NDP doesn't want an election/isn't ready for an election", and will then start asking how prepared the Liberals are.
* Take advantage of the opening provided by the Liberals admitting they likely can't form a majority government on their own, to offer another viable alternative. Make that alternative look viable.
Now, how to meet those objectives? Actually, I think they package they sent out meets all those objectives. In particular, I did smile at the part where they stressed how confidential it all was. In my experience, as soon as you say that, you can pretty much guarantee that someone will send it to the media. And, thinking they've got a big scoop, the media might actually write about it.
Come to think of it, when was the last time you saw Jane Taber write approvingly of the NDP's strategy. Mission accomplished on all scores, I'd say.
Also, by the way, this is not the first time the party's new strategy has been quite open about its objectives. I remember last year they publicized the 10 Conservative ridings (5 each in Ontario and BC) in which they were buying radio ads to target the Conservatives over the HST.
Since the media is obsessed with reporting strategy and tactics, this gives them something concrete to chew on. It also motivates people in the party's riding associations, who historically have not been very active between elections, to try and step up their game locally, so the party can target more seats than they have before.
That's my take on it, anyways. And I don't buy the "ego trip" argument. Most research into fundraising says that folks respond to individuals more than to abstract ideas. It just seems like an unfair thing, if you don't grasp the strategy, to dismiss it all as an ego trip. That would be a pretty expensive ego trip, and unlikely to be approved by the campaign committee, if you stop and think about it.
A reasonable argument about the narrative, but it still seems kind of amateurish on the communications side - kind of like..'look at us we can fundraise! You better take us seriously Mr. Harper!
The ego trip is not the fundraising side of things - that was actually excellent execution. In fact, it may have been the best political fundraising kit I've ever received or even seen for that matter. It just seems that comms department or the individual 'strategist' is a litle desperate to impress.
Tue, 2010-06-22 11:09
#70
"Amateurish"? Well, when you've run an $18 million national election campaign, get back to them with your professional recommendations, RedRover.
Tue, 2010-06-22 11:14
#71
How about the NDP more adamently show up at colleges? Like offer actual support to youth voters. It isn't like it is a large and untapped demographic or anything.
Get the youth vote out while they still have some shreds of a non-cynical world view.
Tue, 2010-06-22 11:25
#72
The communication from the NDP about targetted ridings and regions is NOT "inside information" and nothing strategic is being given away. Its all pretty obvious stuff and its all about raising money. The Tories don't need to look at Brad Lavigne's brochure to know that the NDP is going to be targetting seats that they lost narrowly last time! Does anyone seriously think that the Tories are going to say to themselves "Gee, I thought we didn't have to put one red cent into Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar and that it was a slam dunk - but now that I've seen that NDP fundraising letter I'm petrified and we better pour resources into holding it".
This is no different from Obama's campaign raising money in the US in 2008 by telling people that they are targetting swing states like Ohio and Florida.
I'm sure there is lots of NDP strategy that is sensitive and that needs to be kept secret in order to work - that stuff is not publicized. In fact, for all we know, once the next election campaign gets underway, the NDP's list of target seats may be completely different from what's listed in this fundraising solicitation.
Tue, 2010-06-22 12:11
#73
If Andrew Coyne is correct, and the Liberals are done, what does the NDP have to do to ensure most of the Liberal vote moves to the NDP as opposed to the Conservatives? Now is probably a good time for many Green party supporters to be taking a serious look at the NDP as well.
The Liberals will never be the same
ANDREW COYNE predicts there will be neither a coalition nor a merger, only the destruction of the Liberal party
http://www2.macleans.ca/2010/06/21/the-liberals-will-never-be-the-same/
Tue, 2010-06-22 12:25
#74
For all those incredulous people who think the NDP has tipped their hand, all anyone has to do to find out what each party's top target seats/most marginal seats, is to take a quick gander at punditsguide.ca. If the NDP didn't throw everything, including the kitchen sink, at ridings like S-R-B and Gatineau next election, they would have taken leave of their senses. This is merely showing that the party is serious about targetting winnable ridings.
@NorthReport: I don't know if the party has to do anything much to get the vote of former Liberal voters. A lot of people parked their vote there (a) because they'd always voted Liberal; (b) because they want to keep the Tories out and they think the Liberal is the best bet to do that; (c) who'd like to vote NDP, but don't because the party 'will never win here' (a rather circular argument, to my mind). Take away the second choice, and a lot of people in the second category will move over to the NDP.
I wouldn't want all the people who voted Liberal to vote NDP, by the way. My ideal situation is the Liberals to implode, large-scale defections of blue Liberals to the Tories, a rump Liberal party to soak up the congenital Liberal voters (the useful idiots school of thought), and the NDP scooping up the left-of-centre pieces. We'd leave out Bob Rae, though.
Tue, 2010-06-22 12:55
#75
At some point, perhaps sooner rather than later, Ignatieff has to say that he has had enough pain.
I'm wondering if Bob Rae will be the next Liberal leader come the Fall.
Tue, 2010-06-22 13:10
#76
This isn't a campaign strategy, it's a fundraising letter. Does anybody actually believe the NDP will pour extra money & resources into ridings where they finished 2nd over but over 45% behind the Conservatives (19 out of the 51)?
I do. Look at what happened with Edmonton Strathcona last time, and what might happen to Edmonton Centre next time. To win a riding, you need a great candidate who has got the resources to do the job.
The 19 seats I was referring to are all in rural Alberta & Manitoba. Does it make sense to put more effort into them than ridings where the NDP was 3rd or 4th with a much higher vote %? I remember when the Reform Party used to crow about coming in 2nd in Windsor West, York South Weston & Hamilton East. Did that get them anywhere? What relevance is coming in 2nd in a riding where the winner gets over 65% & no one else gets over 15%? Sort of like North Korea coming in 2nd to Portugal in their World Cup game.
Tue, 2010-06-22 14:28
#77
Of course the NDP will not actually sink serious resources into ridings in rural Alberta where they were second but 50 points behind the Tory - but from a pure communications point of view, there is no harm in pointing out that the NDP is the only alternative to the Tories in large swaths of the country. Realistically, the mailout gives people the option of dedicating their donation to "Battleground BC" or "Battleground Atlantic" etc... - I assume that if I check off that I want my $$ to go to "Battleground Alberta" it means my money will go to Edmonton East and/or Edmonton Centre and NOT to Red Deer!
Tue, 2010-06-22 15:39
#78
I LOVE this new tactic:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/jack-layton...
"Jack Layton and the New Democrats are launching an anti-HST campaign in British Columbia, targeting six key Conservative ridings with an interactive voicemail from the NDP Leader that is to go to 150,000 households.
Constituents in the ridings of James Lunney, Randy Kamp, Cathy McLeod, John Duncan, Dona Cadman and Dick Harris will hear Mr. Layton ask them to “press 1” and then leave a message for their MP objecting to them supporting the new tax or not having voted against it."
Tue, 2010-06-22 17:52
#79
A *great* list of six seats for the NDP to target, I think! In fact, I would have to wonder whether Dick Harris and John Duncan will even run again, by the time the next election rolls around. Harris has been there since 1993, and is not looking any younger. He fell out of Harper's good books awhile back, after publicly disagreeing with the government over some issue or other, and has never been heard from since. Duncan looked positively world-weary, the last time I saw him stand up to speak in the House, too.
Tue, 2010-06-22 18:02
#80
The NDP should target Gary Lunn as well!!
Tue, 2010-06-22 18:13
#81
And I've just noticed that Nettie Wiebe has a spiffy (rather professional-looking) new image-thingy on Facebook. Anyone would think the picture's been taken for campaign lit …
Kelly Block only manages to look good against the homophobic antics of her colleagues Maurice Vellacott (Saskatoon-Wanuskewin) and Brad Trost (Saskatoon-Humboldt), which is a pretty low bar to jump. She won't have done herself many favours with some folk by appearing at an anti-abortion rally in Ottawa. All three MPs heartily deserve the boot, and the NDP candidates should be the ones wearing the Doc Martens.
Tue, 2010-06-22 18:19
#82
Absolutely!
The NDP should target Gary Lunn as well!!
Tue, 2010-06-22 21:51
#83
This isn't a campaign strategy, it's a fundraising letter. Does anybody actually believe the NDP will pour extra money & resources into ridings where they finished 2nd over but over 45% behind the Conservatives (19 out of the 51)?
I do. Look at what happened with Edmonton Strathcona last time, and what might happen to Edmonton Centre next time. To win a riding, you need a great candidate who has got the resources to do the job.
Though to be fair, the NDP was in a much more favourable foundation situation in Edmonton-Strathcona: a strong second in 2006, a strong third in 2004 that could have been stronger still were it not for a candidate "scandal", and provincial incumbency. In Edmonton Centre, though, they've hitherto been far behind the Liberals, in no small part because of the Landslide Annie legacy. Sure, they've got a great candidate now; but the broader optics still favour Edmonton East as the NDP's #2 in Alberta...
Tue, 2010-06-22 22:34
#84
The communication from the NDP about targetted ridings and regions is NOT "inside information" and nothing strategic is being given away. Its all pretty obvious stuff and its all about raising money. The Tories don't need to look at Brad Lavigne's brochure to know that the NDP is going to be targetting seats that they lost narrowly last time! Does anyone seriously think that the Tories are going to say to themselves "Gee, I thought we didn't have to put one red cent into Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar and that it was a slam dunk - but now that I've seen that NDP fundraising letter I'm petrified and we better pour resources into holding it".
This is no different from Obama's campaign raising money in the US in 2008 by telling people that they are targetting swing states like Ohio and Florida.
I'm sure there is lots of NDP strategy that is sensitive and that needs to be kept secret in order to work - that stuff is not publicized. In fact, for all we know, once the next election campaign gets underway, the NDP's list of target seats may be completely different from what's listed in this fundraising solicitation.
What was to be gained though? Observer's narrative makes some sense, but it still comes off as a little desperate on the media side. I would just take the $1 million the fundraising pitch will likely get, and then brag when the numbers come in next quarter.
Tue, 2010-06-22 22:36
#85
I wouldn't want all the people who voted Liberal to vote NDP, by the way. My ideal situation is the Liberals to implode, large-scale defections of blue Liberals to the Tories, a rump Liberal party to soak up the congenital Liberal voters (the useful idiots school of thought), and the NDP scooping up the left-of-centre pieces. We'd leave out Bob Rae, though.
So your ideal situation is not to govern? Under the scenario you outlined the Cons would be well up over 40% and we would have trouble hitting 30%.
Tue, 2010-06-22 22:37
#86
"Amateurish"? Well, when you've run an $18 million national election campaign, get back to them with your professional recommendations, RedRover.
Well 'observer' Brian Topp was the Director last go 'round and he isn't going to be this time. If he is the strategist who leaked and/or promoted the fundraising strategy with the media contact, then I guess you know more than I do about that.
$18 million campaign + Stephane Dion and Green Shift = 0.70% gain in popular vote and 8 seats for the NDP. I don't know if amateurish would be my word of choice for that campaign, but disappointing summed up my feeling on election night.
Tue, 2010-06-22 22:56
#87
I LOVE this new tactic:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/jack-layton...
"Jack Layton and the New Democrats are launching an anti-HST campaign in British Columbia, targeting six key Conservative ridings with an interactive voicemail from the NDP Leader that is to go to 150,000 households.
Constituents in the ridings of James Lunney, Randy Kamp, Cathy McLeod, John Duncan, Dona Cadman and Dick Harris will hear Mr. Layton ask them to “press 1” and then leave a message for their MP objecting to them supporting the new tax or not having voted against it."
This is smart for sure, and no doubt a part of why the party is at or near the lead in BC in recent polls. The tough question though is what is the follow-up act? What will keep people on board after the tax rage starts to fade in 6 months? That being said kudos for picking the right issue at the right time and the right place.
Tue, 2010-06-22 23:08
#88
This isn't a campaign strategy, it's a fundraising letter. Does anybody actually believe the NDP will pour extra money & resources into ridings where they finished 2nd over but over 45% behind the Conservatives (19 out of the 51)?
I do. Look at what happened with Edmonton Strathcona last time, and what might happen to Edmonton Centre next time. To win a riding, you need a great candidate who has got the resources to do the job.
Though to be fair, the NDP was in a much more favourable foundation situation in Edmonton-Strathcona: a strong second in 2006, a strong third in 2004 that could have been stronger still were it not for a candidate "scandal", and provincial incumbency. In Edmonton Centre, though, they've hitherto been far behind the Liberals, in no small part because of the Landslide Annie legacy. Sure, they've got a great candidate now; but the broader optics still favour Edmonton East as the NDP's #2 in Alberta...
From what I understand, Edmonton East is an inner city that is more working class than Strathcona (which also has a large university presence). Not sure if demographics in Edmonton center are good for the NDP given how poorly they've done there.
Tue, 2010-06-22 23:09
#89
Though to be fair, the NDP was in a much more favourable foundation situation in Edmonton-Strathcona: a strong second in 2006, a strong third in 2004 that could have been stronger still were it not for a candidate "scandal", and provincial incumbency. In Edmonton Centre, though, they've hitherto been far behind the Liberals, in no small part because of the Landslide Annie legacy. Sure, they've got a great candidate now; but the broader optics still favour Edmonton East as the NDP's #2 in Alberta...
From what I understand, Edmonton East is an inner city riding that is more working class than Strathcona (which also has a large university presence). Not sure if demographics in Edmonton center are good for the NDP given how poorly they've done there.
Tue, 2010-06-22 23:40
#90
But there is a kick-ass candidate in Edmonton Centre, a very active riding association, and they are getting well-organized now. It's not as though we've never held provincial seats inside the riding either. Why not target all 3 seats in Edmonton, and support them with a good-sized media buy.
Wed, 2010-06-23 05:53
#91
I LOVE this new tactic:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/jack-layton...
"Jack Layton and the New Democrats are launching an anti-HST campaign in British Columbia, targeting six key Conservative ridings with an interactive voicemail from the NDP Leader that is to go to 150,000 households.
Constituents in the ridings of James Lunney, Randy Kamp, Cathy McLeod, John Duncan, Dona Cadman and Dick Harris will hear Mr. Layton ask them to “press 1” and then leave a message for their MP objecting to them supporting the new tax or not having voted against it."
This is smart for sure, and no doubt a part of why the party is at or near the lead in BC in recent polls. The tough question though is what is the follow-up act? What will keep people on board after the tax rage starts to fade in 6 months? That being said kudos for picking the right issue at the right time and the right place.
It's not unfair to ask these questions, but I doubt that the "rage" will fade in six months. If anything it will be worse, seeing as it will cost the average person a lot of money. People have known that this tax was coming since a few weeks after the BC Liberals re-election, back in May 2009, and the rage has only gotten worse as time has worn on. Besides, the response in BC has been completely unlike the response in Ontario, because the Liberals changed their minds days after getting re-elected, which indicates that they were lying during the election campaign when they insisted they wouldn't introduce the HST. Unlike a general tax increase, or a carbon tax, or some other sort of fee that's designed to fund programmes, or curb a behaviour or undesirable activity, this is simply a tax shift from Corporations to consumers. As the average person notices this and the fact that they have to pay 12% for things they only used to pay 7% for they won't be pleased. It basically combines a right-wing aversion to taxes with a left-wing aversion to regressive wealth distribution. From a political standpoint it's a complete dud and it's about time that Harper be forced to wear it too. I only question why the ad doesn't target all BC Conservative MP's, surely radio ads can't be that expensive?
Wed, 2010-06-23 07:32
#92
So your ideal situation is not to govern? Under the scenario you outlined the Cons would be well up over 40% and we would have trouble hitting 30%.
What I see is that there are some kind of Liberals who the NDP is never going to attract – the blue Liberals on the right of the party, and the Liberals who have sworn that hell will freeze over before they go anywhere near the NDP. The only way the party attract the first lot is to become a Canadian version of New Labour, and believe me, one version of it is more than the world needs.
I also believe a lot of voters who haven't voted (or haven't voted in a long time) would come out of the woodwork for the NDP, especially as the Tories would become a lot brasher and bolder under the scenario, turning off as many as they'd turn on. Imagine Harper off the leash, saying what he really wants to, and all the NDP would have to do is look determined, reasonable and the best shot of kicking his ass to the kerb.
Wed, 2010-08-04 23:47
#93
A few suggestions for the topic:
Do a lot of listening
Keep repeating a simple message in different ways.
Better vetting of candidates which seems to be working.
Better use of the NDP website
Campaign to obtain the most number of NDP votes possible
Thu, 2010-08-05 20:08
#94
Here is the thing, any analysis of the NDP's vote share that looks only at the pan-canadian situation is wrong. The fact is that Canada, due to its system, is pushed into a two-party race in most of the country, three- or four-party races exist but are rare. Most regions are stuck into Liberal-Conservative races, with some regions having Bloc-Liberal races or NDP-Liberal races, etc... The bipartisan dynamic is as strong as ever, it's just been regionalized.
The best way tro strengthen the NDP is therefore, on a regional basis, to seek to replace one of the two default parties. This typically happens by betting on a "screw them all mentality" to get a certain support, then aggressively seek the voters from one of the two parties. That's how it always happened. The Reform Party and the Bloc Quebecois both used that dynamic to supplant the Conservatives in select regions. The Conservatives were very unpopular, the Liberals were hated by large sections of the populations in the West and Québec, so they exploited the "screw them all" sentiment to get voters to come to them initially, and then went aggressively after the voters of the Conservatives, right-wingers in the West, nationalists in Québec. The rise of the NDP in certain regions (the Prairies, Toronto) mirror this dynamic in an even more localized way.
I think if the NDP wants to reach new heights, it must abandon the idea of a pan-canadian only strategy (it can work, but it's much more unlikely), the pan-canadian strategy must support regional strategies that should be the main focus.
Thu, 2010-08-05 21:38
#95
The rise of the NDP in certain regions (the Prairies, Toronto) mirror this dynamic in an even more localized way.I think if the NDP wants to reach new heights, it must abandon the idea of a pan-canadian only strategy (it can work, but it's much more unlikely), the pan-canadian strategy must support regional strategies that should be the main focus.
Actually, the best recent case of this NDP regional strategy in practice is in Northern Ontario...
Thu, 2010-08-05 22:42
#96
Yes, and I think they would like to replicate it now in southwestern Ontario as well.
Fri, 2010-08-06 01:02
#97
The NDP results in Northern Ontario were certainly impressive in 2008. The Liberals held most of the Northern Ontario seats going into the election, and by the end of it, they only had one left.
Southwestern Ontario might be more difficult for the NDP though because it hasn't historically been as strong for them as Northern Ontario, and SW Ontario seems pretty Conservative these days.
Fri, 2010-08-06 08:29
#98
The regional polls did a lot of swinging between the NDP and the Conservatives during the last campaign, however. Ultimately people in the manufacturing base decided to try and secure their future by voting with the government. Whether they do so again this time will depend on how well they think that's gone for them.
However, the Liberals are imploding in southwestern Ontario. They just lost their candidate in Chatham-Kent--Essex to criminal charges, and their candidate in Essex has lost total enthusiasm for the endeavour, changing his mind from his earlier promise not to run again municipally. They came third in Sarnia, London-Fanshawe and Welland last time, along with both Windsor ridings, and our candidates in Brant and Elgin-Middlesex-London are seriously out-hustling theirs in the pre-election period now.
The Liberals have a chance at Haldimand-Norfolk with Bob Speller running against Diane Finley, if that independent who hates the FN blockades runs again, but on the other hand Finley's husband is the Conservatives' national campaign manager, and will get every assistance. They have a chance at London West as well. Not sure how they'll do in the rest of the Niagara escarpment (the two Niagara Falls ridings and St. Catharines), and I doubt anyone can touch the Conservatives in Oxford or Lambton-Kent-Middlesex.
As to your contention that the NDP has not historically done well there, we held Brant and Essex before, and won a lot of the other ridings provincially in 1990. Plus it's a well-organized region in terms of the labour movement, so we're not starting from nowhere.
Fri, 2010-08-06 10:10
#99
It would be interesting to see how well the NDP will do in the areas where there are a lot of auto workers.
Our auto workers have been doing a really good job, especially considering the recession. My friend who works as an electrician in Oshawa is being run off his feet! Sales in Canada are good for both GM and Chrysler.
Are they going to reward Harper & Co. for the huge government stimulus bailout? Both the Liberals and the NDP would have done it or something similar.
Figuring out how to win in the 'shwa could lead to a bloom of seats right across Ontario,
Fri, 2010-08-06 10:17
#100
Well, for one thing, I believe the CAW has ended its dalliance with the Liberals once and for all, and awhile back I posted a list of labour candidates I knew who were running for the NDP, and the largest group was from the CAW, including the president of Local 444 in Oshawa (previously the only union local to ever affiliate with the Reform Party briefly in the early 1990s after Meech and Charlottetown), and candidates in Whitby-Oshawa and Durham if I remember right, along with Ryan Dolby in Elgin-Middlesex-London.
Fri, 2010-08-06 12:11
#101
The regional polls did a lot of swinging between the NDP and the Conservatives during the last campaign, however. Ultimately people in the manufacturing base decided to try and secure their future by voting with the government. Whether they do so again this time will depend on how well they think that's gone for them.
However, the Liberals are imploding in southwestern Ontario. They just lost their candidate in Chatham-Kent--Essex to criminal charges, and their candidate in Essex has lost total enthusiasm for the endeavour, changing his mind from his earlier promise not to run again municipally. They came third in Sarnia, London-Fanshawe and Welland last time, along with both Windsor ridings, and our candidates in Brant and Elgin-Middlesex-London are seriously out-hustling theirs in the pre-election period now.
The Liberals have a chance at Haldimand-Norfolk with Bob Speller running against Diane Finley, if that independent who hates the FN blockades runs again, but on the other hand Finley's husband is the Conservatives' national campaign manager, and will get every assistance. They have a chance at London West as well. Not sure how they'll do in the rest of the Niagara escarpment (the two Niagara Falls ridings and St. Catharines), and I doubt anyone can touch the Conservatives in Oxford or Lambton-Kent-Middlesex.
As to your contention that the NDP has not historically done well there, we held Brant and Essex before, and won a lot of the other ridings provincially in 1990. Plus it's a well-organized region in terms of the labour movement, so we're not starting from nowhere.
Rumour has it that in the bellweather riding of Huron-Bruce (where the Liberal candidate is a dud -even to long time Liberals) former Ontario President of the National Farmers Union Grant Robertson is on the cusp of announcing his attention to seek the nomination. If a meeting gets scheduled (as the rumour mill suggests is imenient) expect that annoucement soon. This is someone that can bring a great deal of credibility to the NDP in rural parts of other ridings just by being visible due to his track record and his years of writing commentaries on rural/small town issues and help that overall push in southwestern Ontario.