Hébert: Quebec is rich turf for national parties

11 posts / 0 new

Mon, 2010-08-23 07:14

Debater

Excerpt:

Ipsos pollster John Wright thinks the Liberals, the Conservatives and the NDP may all be wasting their time in Quebec these days. Given the Bloc Québécois’s enduring dominance of the province, he wonders why any of the other parties should bother with Quebec.

A short answer might be that 62 per cent of Quebecers voted for parties other than the Bloc in the last federal election, up from 58 per cent in 2006.

Given the way pollsters and columnists routinely talk about the Bloc as if it owned Quebec, one might be forgiven for believing that the sovereignist party alone commands an audience in the province.

In fact, the party has not carried a majority of the popular vote in any of the six campaigns it has fought over its 20-year existence.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/851054--hebert-quebec-is-rich...

Mon, 2010-08-23 17:29

Sean in Ottawa

Imagine what PR would make Quebec look like.

Mon, 2010-08-23 17:35

Debater

It would certainly be very different than what it is now!

Mon, 2010-08-23 17:42

ottawaobserver

That blogpost of Jane Taber's (the one quoting John Wright from Ipsos on Quebec) has now been pretty thoroughly stepped on from all quarters. Hébert really didn't mince any words, did she! ThreeHundredEight.com was also pretty scathing the other day.

Mon, 2010-08-23 18:21

Debater

Ipsos is Canada's most pro-Conservative pollster, so I suppose it's not totally surprising that they would say something stupid like that.

And apart from the mathematical problems it would pose for a party to write off Quebec, it is also ignorant for another reason: you can't build a truly representative government if you have no MP's from the 2nd biggest province in the country and the one that contains French Canada!

Tue, 2010-08-24 00:11

NorthReport

But the Bloc certainly have in seats, which is all that actually matters.

Quote:
In fact, the party has not carried a majority of the popular vote in any of the six campaigns it has fought over its 20-year existence.

Tue, 2010-08-24 02:35

Debater

NorthReport wrote:

But the Bloc certainly have in seats, which is all that actually matters.

I think you've missed the point of Hébert's column.

Tue, 2010-08-24 16:22

Ken Burch

The Liberals certainly won't make any gains in Quebec as long as they stay right-of-centre on spending and economics.

Tue, 2010-08-24 17:11

Sean in Ottawa

I don't see how North Reprot's post suggests he doesn't get it-- he is simply expressing an opinion that when all is said and done the popular vote does not mean anything -- at least until we have PR.

Sure you can argue the subsidy-- until the Cons scrap it.

Sure you can argue that the seat count does not match the actual will of the people which I think is both Hébert's and North Report's point.

Sure you can argue that there is a significant base to work from which seems to be Hébert's point-- but you can also see that in spite of that base, the bar is very high.

What Hébert does not say that North Report has in the past is that Quebec like much of the country is not monolithic and in fact represents a series of regional races many of which are not all that close so the efficiency of the vote is not there for the federal parties. The conclusion is that in spite of this base and everything she says the federal parties are a long way from improving their fortunes in Quebec in seats which are all that counts in federal politics -- so North Report's conclusion seems fair enough and I agree with it.

NR-- if I have mis-characterized any of this please let me know.

Tue, 2010-08-24 18:01

#10

Debater

Sean, it's not really a wise prospect to agree too much with NR. He's been predicting the NDP will hit 20% plus and win multiple seats in Quebec. So far there's no evidence of that happening.

I also notice a contradiction above - NR says that only seats matter, yet he trumpets the 1% increase in popular vote for the NDP in the Léger poll as being significant.

Anyway, it is true that seats are the main thing that matter in terms of representation in Parliament, but it's also true that popular vote matters. The parties get their voter subsidy based on how many votes they get, so as the BQ popular vote has declined, so has the amount of money they have received from the subsidy. Not only that, but if the BQ drops any further in the popular vote, they will lose more seats, which as you pointed out, is what is important. Their political legitimacy will also be called into question if they continue to stay below 40% in Quebec or drop down below the 38% they received in 2008. At the moment there is a danger that they could drop down to 35% down the road.

Wed, 2010-08-25 03:36

#11

Ken Burch

Of course, if the BQ does lose votes, there's no way it would lose them to the Liberals. Anyone who's been voting BQ on a regular basis would basically have to give up everything she or he stood for to vote for the Liberal Party.

What would the Liberal Party possibly have to offer current BQ voters? Especially since BQ voters will always be against fiscal conservatism and a militarist foreign policy.