My favourite line of the debate last night. This zinger came out of the blue.
People's Alliance Leader Kris Austin criticized Graham as the "best thing that ever happened to Alberta's economy."
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/nbvotes2010/story/2010/09/14/nbvotes-leaders-de...
There was a second English Language leaders debate last night. Others continued to target Alward, the front-runner with the occassionally shot at Graham. The free for all debating portions were as useless as the ones the previous evening. The leaders kept speaking over the top of each other.
The debates were a train wreck all around, I don't think anyone came out looking good. At least Duguay kept his composure, but that was also at the expense of seeming less forceful than the others. I'd call the whole thing a wash. Anyone outside of political circles I talked to was pretty disgusted with the whole thing.
Tories have supposedly topped 50% in the rolling CRA poll, don't know if the debates will impact that much, but a Tory landslide won't be good news for the three smaller parties.
Good letter to the editor:
What isn't being discussed in our election campaign is that both New Brunswick and Canada are in dire need of a system of proportional representation.We need a system where no voter is disenfranchised. We need a system which represents all voters of the province and country. . .
We need a system of proportional representation in which the number of seats in the House is directly related to the number of votes that each party received. The result will be a government where all voices are heard, in which the governing party will be forced to make only promises it can keep and in which there are no disenfranchised voters.
You'll also see the participation rate of voters dramatically increase as they'll now at last see that their votes are being heard. . .
Graham Neill
Upper Kingsclear, N.B.
However, he makes the mistake of saying "The resulting system, however, can't be watered down to make it less effective, as will be encouraged by the two governing parties. They won't want to lose any control." Electoral reform is NOT just an NDP/Green project. New Brunswick's Commission on Legislative Democracy said:
Declining voter turnout is for many a barometer of a growing and persistent sense of dissatisfaction and disaffection with our democratic process. Steps being recommended by the Commission to boost turnout, will lead to a reinforcement of the values of inclusion and openness; in particular, to bringing youth back into the process.A fair electoral system doesn't just produce a government; it produces legitimacy based on consent. Citizens want to know that their votes count; that their choices are reflected in the legislature and government. In short, electoral systems affect citizens' perception of their democracy and their satisfaction with it.
Between 1987 and 1999, for example, the opposition never won more than 20 per cent of the seats in the legislature, despite the combined opposition parties winning between 40 per cent and 53 per cent of the vote during this same period. This has produced an imbalance in our system affecting the legislature's ability to hold the government to account.
In British Columbia and Québec, there have been recent cases where a party formed a government with a majority of seats but actually received fewer votes than their main rival. This was also the case in New Brunswick in 1974.
. . . did your vote actually count towards the final result? Under our single member plurality system, commonly known as first-past-the-post, it counts principally for the winning candidate. Votes cast for other candidates are not factored into the results and are thus 'wasted'. Making your vote truly count means that all votes must be treated equally and none wasted. As we explain in our recommendation to adopt a New Brunswick regional mixed member PR system, this change would clearly make your vote count far more than now towards electing an MLA and the party of your choice.
In recent elections we have seen our two major parties compete almost evenly within a region, yet because of the workings of the electoral system, one party wins virtually all of the seats in the region. The result is that voters in this area have no representation in the other party's caucus and conversely, that party has no elected official in the region. The last provincial election offers examples of this phenomenon.
In the southeastern part of the province, the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives enjoyed fairly comparable voter support, with the PCs winning 47 per cent of the vote in the 13 ridings in this area and the Liberals 45 per cent. However, when the present electoral system converted these votes into seats in the legislature, the PCs won 10 of the 13 seats. The result is that the Liberal party's legislative caucus has very little representation from this region. No Liberal MLA is speaking for most of this part of the province in the legislature, and Liberal voters in this region do not see their votes resulting in the election of many of their candidates, even though a large number of voters in the area supported Liberal candidates. The same situation, only in the reverse, occurred in the northern part of the province, where the Progressive Conservatives won an equal vote share with the Liberals, but Liberal candidates were elected across most of the region, leaving large areas with no representation in the government caucus. The "winner-take-all" nature of the SMP system encourages these distortions that can lead to voters in a region feeling alienated from one of the major parties, even though a significant number of them may have voted for that party.
They recommended a regional Mixed Member system where each of four regions elects nine MLAs from single member constituencies and five regional MLAs.
The tory rollercoaster is not unexpected. The NB Power fiasco has managed to eclipse the Orimulsion fiasco under Bernard Lord in peoples minds. I wouldve hoped for a minority gov with a seat or 2 to the NDP but it'll take a miracle to make it happen now. Truth is the NB tories are to the left of the NB liberals. If it has to be a majority gov Id rather it be tory. One surprising thing is that Alward is facing Mike Allen's brother (Mike is a Conservative MP in my riding) who is running as an independant. Along with the news that Alward is openly criticising Ottawa for neglecting R&D in Atlantic Canada, in agreement with Danny Williams, makes this NB pc party far from a Harper or Reform tory party.
http://www.canadaeast.com/news/article/1221303
Can't wait to the Irvings, McCains and Ganongs have their property tax assessments frozen. There are much better ways to deal with the issue of senior citizens living below the povert line.
New Brunswick's city mayors warned Progressive Conservative Leader David Alward on Thursday that they don't like his property tax plans.
Alward's Tories have laid out a proposed series of property tax reforms during the election campaign, including a promise to permanently freeze assessments for senior citizens.
Six of the eight New Brunswick city mayors say their municipalities cannot afford that commitment, but Alward is sticking with the promise.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/nbvotes2010/story/2010/09/17/nbvotes-cities-spe...
Nearly half of New Brunswick voters say they're still uncertain which party they will support in the Sept. 27 provincial election, the largest poll conducted to date suggests.
In a survey jointly commissioned by CBC News and the francophone daily newspaper L'Acadie Nouvelle, 1,005 New Brunswickers were interviewed late last week on their voting intentions.
The largest group - 40 per cent - said they haven't decided who will get their vote. That number swamped the 24 per cent who said they have decided to vote for David Alward's Progressive Conservative Party and the 19 per cent who say they intend to vote for Shawn Graham's Liberal Party.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/nbvotes2010/story/2010/09/19/nb-election-poll-r...
So, how's the Federal Gun Registry vote going to affect the election here in NB? Obviously the vote has nothing to do with Provincial politics on the surface, but I'm afraid it will play on people's minds regardless. A lot of people I talk to are pretty steamed that it may not get scrapped, and if they walk into the polls angry at the NDP and Liberals Federally, will that convert to PC votes provinically?
I don't live in NB but I can't see how it would be much of an issue in a provincial election. First of all, its always been very much an issue among anglophones and not among francophones - so scratch the northern third of the province, secondly, few people in Saint John or Fredericton or Moncton care, scratch another big chunk of the province, then you have all those people in Miramichi who will lose their jobs if the registry was scrapped. In the end, the only people who are really upset are people who are core Conservative voters - and in any case this is a federal issue.
NDP Leader Roger Duguay is appealing to middle-class voters and warning them about the lavish spending promises made by his two chief rivals with the Sept. 27 election a week away.
In Moncton on Monday, the NDP leader revealed a party campaign platform that was focused on fiscal responsibility
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/nbvotes2010/story/2010/09/20/nbvotes-ndp-platfo...
I wouldnt be surprised if the 40% undecided was also the ~40% who dont bother to vote anymore.
The Abacus Data Poll shows the Tories with 35 per cent of voter support and the Grits with 32 per cent.
The three-point lead is a statistical tie, as it falls within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
http://telegraphjournal.canadaeast.com/front/article/1228964
The Liberals and Progressive Conservatives have failed to tackle New Brunswick's staggering debt and deficit issue, focusing instead on unrealistic promises during the election campaign, according to a public administration expert.
Donald Savoie, the Canada research chair in public administration and governance at the University of Moncton, writes in an analysis for CBC News that the election campaign has been "wasted days" in terms of informing the public about the implications of the provincial government's $749-million deficit.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/nbvotes2010/story/2010/09/21/nbvotes-savoie-eco...
Please everybody, educate other NBers! People need to understand what the Liberals and Conservatives are going to do to our province. NDP and Green can win seats but we've got to be active!
New Brunswick voters head to the polls in less than a week and could once again elect a majority government with a disproportionate number of MLAs.
New Brunswick's political history is dotted by examples of parties that have been shut out of the legislature despite gaining a significant share of the popular vote or winning a majority government despite being beaten in popular support.
Shawn Graham's Liberals won power in 2006 despite losing the popular vote to the Progressive Conservatives. Frank McKenna's Liberals won 100 per cent of the seats in 1987 but only received 60 per cent of the popular support.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/nbvotes2010/story/2010/09/22/nbvotes-electoral-...
NDP says economic growth is revenue neutral
Finances Candidate says any gains would be offset by loss in equalization payments
FREDERICTON - The NDP in New Brunswick says it has uncovered a fundamental flaw in the plans of the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives to tackle the province's deficit by growing the economy through tax cuts.
http://telegraphjournal.canadaeast.com/front/article/1230927
I went through all the ridings and entered in the CBC competition. I only read afterwards that they will pick the winner randomly from all entrants not based on how accurate.
Sorry but for what it is worth I came up with 34 PC and 20 Liberal 1 NDP
I don't know, I really don't. I'd agree with what most are saying (low 30s for the PCs, mid twenties for the Libs and 1 for Roger), but that last CRA poll released on threehundredeight with that regional breakdown shows Tory support highly concentrated in the South, with the Liberals ahead in the North and Moncton. Riding by Riding this may be a really surprising slugfest. The only thing I'll confidently predict is that First-past-the-post will screw us all again.
Liberal Leader Shawn Graham is predicting a surprise for a lot of people when the results are tallied in Monday's provincial election.
"I think we're going to add some seats that we didn't have previously," Graham said Saturday during a campaign stop in Edmundston, N.B. "The team is motivated and the team is excited because we have a solid platform to help the people of New Brunswick."
At dissolution, the Liberals had 31 seats and the Tories 21. There was one Independent and two seats were vacant.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/nbvotes2010/story/2010/09/25/nb-election-finale.html
If he believes this Shawn will be very disappointed this evening, I think.
My election day prediction is 32 PC, 22 Lib and 1 NDP.
I say this wondering if the PC numbers might be even higher than the number Sean gives. This has been a very strange NB election with a high number of undecided voters right up until the end. The fact that Shawn Graham would be the first premier not to secure a second term in NB ads to the uncertainty. It comes down to the electorate holding their nose and voting for a Premier with many blackmarks on his record or going with David Alward, someone many NBers feel luke-warm about at best.
Given the surge in Tory support, can we be confident that Duguay will win even his own seat? He's up against a Tory incumbent (Claude Landry) who took over half the vote last time, although admittedly Landry did so without an NDP candidate because of the Godin/Brewer split. It would be a real shame to see the NDP double its popular vote from last time but get shut out again.
I don't know if Duguay will win his seat and in two places I posted predictions one way and then I changed it the second time.
The rationale for a Duguay win is that the NDP are showing a 10% province-wide-- if this is somewhat concentrated then he should win especially as he has concentrated his efforts there. But a PC blowout if it happens will leave him on the side.
Without riding polling we don't know how much of the 10% the NDP are showing province-wide is in that riding.
I understand that even Yvon Godin is making phone calls today.
Given the surge in Tory support, can we be confident that Duguay will win even his own seat? He's up against a Tory incumbent (Claude Landry) who took over half the vote last time, although admittedly Landry did so without an NDP candidate because of the Godin/Brewer split. It would be a real shame to see the NDP double its popular vote from last time but get shut out again.
First of all, the polls seem to indicate that any Tory "surge" iss very much concentrated in in the English-speaking south and west of the province, they don't seem to have gained any ground at all in the north. In fact the polls suggest that both the Tories and Grits are down in the overall popular vote in the north with support for the NDP (and to a lesser extent the so-called Greens) being up.
Second of all, before all polling inexplicably stopped in the province a week ago, it was clear that the Tory "tide" was ebbingt and that their lead was shrinking...so the "surge" may turn out to be a gurgle in a kitchen sink.
As well, it is interesting to observe this from a distance. But I really can't say I know much about NB provincial politics. I have been shocked by how right wing the Liberals can be and I don't know if they are at all more to the centre than the Cons-- my impression is they are not.
LOL I have CTV and french CBC coverage but no CBC english coverage on expressvu... wonderful...
Holy molly ndp ahead in 9 in early polling... I can only wish that kind of breakthrough holds!
Accordng to the CBC site: (Ray) Godin is leading in Dalhousie--Restigouche East (though just fell behind with a big mass of votes coming in). Duguay is tied. Also, the NDP candidate is ahead in Victoria--Tobique (also fell behind with a big mass of votes being counted), while NDP candidates are competitive (in the early count) in a handful of Moncton ridings.
NDP now at 1-- the issue is everything is only special ballots so no cause for celebration as yet
CBC has Duguay now 23 points behind
Duguay in third now... Im not surprised,. There was too much a tidal wave of rejection of the McKenna-Graham right wing era so Im not surprised that the NDP bled votes mostly to the various red tory candidates. Danny Soucy first time at bat is beating Minister Ouellette. Danny couldve easily gotten a nod for NDP nomination he's so progressive.
Its not my first choice to have a majority tory gov but it was my close third. The other involving NDP minority govs.
CTV has declared Duguay defeated and is discussing PR
Interestingly when there were 3 polls reporting Duguay was 30 points behind. Now with 8 polls reporting the NDP is now 15% behind.
I wonder if calling this seat was too early
Saint John Harbour (i.e., Weir's old seat) is a surprisingly competitive three-way: about 150 votes separate the first-place Liberal and the third-place New Democrat.
Duguay's pulling up some and his best results yet at 30%... I hope he stays on even if he loses and even if not leader...
Now 33% for Duguay!
at 10 polls reporting he is now 9 points behind.
This story might not be over...
Looks like Graham is toast - PCs leading/elected in 38, Libs in only 17.
And CTV confirms it: Conservatives win majority gov't in N.B. election.
Ah God getting rid of these damn blue libs makes me happy... Its a rout. I hope they stay in the wilderness and we get half decent red tory rule or better ndp roles in minority govs in the future... Truth is it will take 10-15 years to get the NB NDP where the NS NDP is today. In that interim I hope the libs stay out of power. NB Libs have been a bane on this province since the late 80's... Good riddance!
Getting more one-sided: PCs 40, Libs 15.
Duguay not out of it yet - he's closed the gap to 370 votes with only 15/34 polls in.
I see that Abel "I'll give you this if you want to step outside" LeBlanc is trailing in Saint John Lancaster...
And CTV confirms it: Conservatives win majority gov't in N.B. election.
As has CBC and Radio-Canada
I count 9 cabinet ministers trailing or defeated so far.
The Libs are doing better in the seat count than they did in 99, when they got just 10 seats with 37.3% of the vote. The Tories are winning almost as many seats as they did in 99 (44) despite winning 4% less of the popular vote (49% vs. 53% in 99). The NDP are actually doing better than they did in 99 (10% vs. 8.8%) but winning no seats.
Basically, the Tories only increased their vote marginally (2%) over their 2006 result. The Liberals have bled off a whopping 12% of the vote. The NDP has doubled its 2006 vote, largely, it would appear, at the expense of the Liberals. Since the Greens didn't even contest the last election, it's hard to say where they took their support from but at least some must have come from the Liberals.
Shoot - Duguay's falling behind now. With 23/34 polls he's now 800 votes behind. Seems unlikely that he will close the gap with only 9 polls remaining.
Saint John Harbour still extremely close but the NDP remains in third.
I'm wondering whether it would have been wiser for Duguay to have run in St. John Harbour and re-establish the beachhead there - esp. with the leader's profile, which would have taken some vote away from the Cons and Libs, and another 12% available from the combined Green and Independent candidates to scoop up from.
Well at least the NDP is back over 10% so far which is a psychological level. If we look into some kind of merger with the provincial greens I think we can get something going in the next couple elections. These arent the national greens and are quite progressive. We couldve had a seat or 2 with the green vote.
I disagree with Duguay that we should look at a win only 25-30 years hence. That is far too long a timespan to consider. We need to become pragmatic. Like our fiscally conservative platform with modest tax and spend proposals. There is no reason we cant extent that pragmatism to a party that is virtually in accord with us.
Under the regional MMP model Bernard Lord's Commission proposed, and which Bernard Lord supported, the PCs would still have gotten a majority of seats, I expect, but the NDP would likely have elected a regional MLA in each of the four regions, I assume. Maybe two MLAs in their strongest region? We'll have to wait for the complete results.
A legislature reflecting New Brunswick's political diversity would have included at least Roger Duguay in the North, Wayne Dryer in the Saint John and Southwest region, Agathe Lapointe or Alida Fagan in Moncton and the southeast, and Tony Myatt or Jason Purdy in the Central region. Or did I miss a star somewhere?
I'm wondering whether it would have been wiser for Duguay to have run in St. John Harbour and re-establish the beachhead there - esp. with the leader's profile, which would have taken some vote away from the Cons and Libs, and another 12% available from the combined Green and Independent candidates to scoop up from.
I don't think that would have made much sense. Duguay is a Acadian as they come and speaks English kind of like Stephane Dion. Running as a parachute candidate in a 100% anglo riding in Saint John would have been a big mistake. It made sense for him to run in the Acadian peninsula where he is well known and where Godin is the federal MP. Maybe the mistake was running against a Tory incumbent in an election where it was pretty clear that the trend was anti-Liberal not anti-Tory.
Yep Duguay made another bad choice for a riding... In 2006 it was a riding with obvious bad demographics for him. This time he ran against a popular tory. He shouldve run in a riding with a liberal incumbent. There was one or 2 nearby ridings according to some that wouldve been better choices for a small third party wanting to make a breakthrough.
Mind you the Liberal incumbents in nearby seats won big as well - but clearly its easier to run against an incumbent from a very unpopular government.
