Looks like that big red tent is starting to fill up after all.
Latest federal political opinion polls - started Friday, September 3, 2010
Wed, 2010-09-08 09:12
#52
Wed, 2010-09-08 11:05
#53
Nanos is being silly and ought to know better.
First the NDP was not that high to begin with and most of this is in regular poll fluctuation.
Second the NDP has not had other news -- now that is a problem as the party ought to not drop out of the media and there needs to be a strategy to not go quiet like that.
Third the Liberals have been in the media quite a bit.
Fourth there are people who may be wanting to stop Harper at all costs.
Fifth most of this is just polling inaccuracy ranges (both the last one and this one) masquarading as news.
ETA (1 and 5 are the same but they are not to be minimized)
Wed, 2010-09-08 11:49
#54
So we sit at 17 % +-3 % like always. I don't see a reason to quible. There isn't a poll that doesn't show the NDP in that range. We always bumb a bit during the elction.
I don't agree with nanos on the long gun being poison because not many are following this. We are already in sept and we will have to wait to see the house sitting again to see where this goes. The link also doesn't mention what or how the questions were asked. If the questions alluded to the NDP not taking a stand on the GR then yes it would have a slight impact. But its asking a leading question.
I had that done by a liberal poll in the election 2 years ago. It described the function of carbon tax and then went on to ask me given my newfound knowledge who would I vote for in the coming election. HMMM who are you asking me to vote for is more appropriate.
Wed, 2010-09-08 12:02
#55
What I object to is someone like Nanos giving a personal hypothesis and presenting it as if it was based on fact. If you look at his polls over the last year - he had the NDP as low as 14 percent six months ago - for no apparent reason and as high as 21 percent three months ago - for no apparent reason.
If he actually asked a series of questions to find 20 or 30 people in his survey who would have said they were going to vote NDP three months ago who are no planning to vote for other parties and he then asked those people why they had changed their minds and lo and behold almost all of those people said "the gun registry" - then he would be justified in pronouncing why the shift. But I am 99.999% certain he did not do that and he's just doing the same idle speculation as any private citizen.
Wed, 2010-09-08 13:23
#56
I agree Stockholm.
I think that the registry has little to do with the fluctuation which I see as more connected to Central Canadian and Maritime voters getting so tired of Harper, they'll trudge back to the Liberal Party as the best shot at unseating Harper.
Wed, 2010-09-08 16:38
#57
You may be right that Nanos's theory is based partially on speculation as to what is behind the numbers, but over the past couple of weeks a number of people have been predicting that the NDP could lose support over the gun registry to the Liberals, so the possibility is not out of the question, and it may not just be coincidental that the polls are reflecting the current controversy.
Wed, 2010-09-08 17:16
#58
I think that what happens is that some people see the odd headline "NDP split...", "Layton in a difficult situation..." - they probably couldn't even tell you what the exact issue was just that the NDP was having a hard time with "something" this week.
The level of political illiteracy among about 95% of Canadians cannot be overestimated.
Wed, 2010-09-08 20:01
#59
A lot of it is just a firming sense that it's time for Harper to go. Only the koolaid drinkers think Layton is still going to be the 'breakthrough' guy, he's way too canned ham and his political instincts far too conservative and ineffectual. Ignatieff sucks bigtime but there are signs that the Liberals are starting to understand what they need to 'sound like' to unseat Harper. They played the gun registry issue well, for all the whining about divisive politics, that's what it takes in our FPTP system. Canadians are divided and most of us want Harper and his agenda stopped.
Harper hasn't exactly set the bar that high, people are sick of him. Ignatieff has looked very politically tone deaf until recently but it should be in the realm of possiblility to win a Liberal minority. Focusing on the wasteful deficit spending of the Cons and the fact that fighter jets and prison building are the government's biggest priorities is a winner for the opposition. If the Cons are going to be taken down they need to be attacked on their perceived 'strengths', so far both the NDP and the Liberals have been too timid to do this but things aren't going to change until it happens and the frame of the debate shifts.
Thu, 2010-09-09 00:45
#60
Tories, Liberals and NDP get bad news in latest poll
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tories-liberals-and-ndp-get...
Thu, 2010-09-09 00:53
#61
Melovesproles-- as an NDP supporter I really wish I could argue against what you wrote but unfortunately I can't.
Thu, 2010-09-09 05:09
#62
I wouldnt put it so flatly about Layton not being the 'breakthrough guy', but I'd agree with the endpoint. I think Jack did the breakthrough- the one from incremental progress and confidence building. Which means back to our glass ceiling.
The top definitely beats the pits. And grateful for that. But its still a glass ceiling.
I think Jack has the potential to go further. But not like this.
I'm going to pick up on a point made here. I reversed the order of the two sentences.
If the Cons are going to be taken down they need to be attacked on their perceived 'strengths', so far both the NDP and the Liberals have been too timid to do this but things aren't going to change until it happens and the frame of the debate shifts.
Focusing on the wasteful deficit spending of the Cons and the fact that fighter jets and prison building are the government's biggest priorities is a winner for the opposition.
In the first place, theres an unexplained gap between 'people are ready to be done with Harper,' and 'for Harper to be taken down...'
and I think there is more to be said about the gap than the obvious 'ready' is different than 'taken down'.
As to how: its a heck of a lot more difficult than the counter-spin of focusing on wasteful spending. People rightfully read as so much predictable blah-blah. Doesnt beat the ballot question: its not who you like, bamkers are assholes too. "Who when it comes down to it do you want in charge?"
But possibly trumping that... why the opposition has such a low bar to clear: Harper has to get a majority or hes out. And all the good cop bad cop routine in the world, and the best campaign machine, its pretty unlikley to close the gap to get there. [Made even harder by having to beat down both the NDP and the Liberals. Differnt kinds of messages and different kinds of battles, all in one good seamless campaign. Beating down only one wont cut it. Very tall order.]
So in a way, probably all the opposition has to do is maintain enough of the status quo. Which can work with Iggy's drone, Jack's amorphous appeal, and the little yippy dog attacks on Harper.
Thu, 2010-09-09 05:19
#63
Mind you there is another side not touched yet of Jack Layton's capabilities, and where it can take the NDP.
If there is a new minority government- doesnt matter what exact shape it takes- its that other Jack Layton in action.
And the more NDP MPs he has to work with, the better.
Tue, 2010-09-14 01:29
#64
Oh wow, another brilliant earth shattering investigative piece of journalism by the CBC. For fuck's sake, CBC, tell us something we don't know. As if this is news.
NRA involved for 10 years in the gun registry debate in Canada
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/09/13/canada-nra-gun-registry.html
Tue, 2010-09-14 01:34
#65
NDP heads West to mine for election gold
http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2010/09/12/15327811.html
Tue, 2010-09-14 09:17
#66
NR to be honest I bet a lot of canadians are shocked and this should be reported. If Michael Moore was funding the pharmacare study you know tories would go ape shit about a "foreigner" interfering with our doin's. Its also useful for future ref about political interferance from the states. For example...we worry about china gaining our resources by buying our companies-yet the papers have not a peep about the number of companies in canda owned by the US.
I personally have no problem with china buying our companies. I seriously cant see how it could be worse then the whole owned branch plant economy we have at present. Hell they may even create jobs instead of contracting them. Mostly cuz our american wannabes would cry a river if they tried to shut anything down(even if they don't do the same for american companies)
Tue, 2010-09-14 09:21
#67
The CBC and media in general are doing a great hatchet job on the NDP wrt to the gun registry, Nanos was on again on CBC radio1 but he is pointing at apoll that is already 2 weeks old. Why doesn't he do another poll if he is so confident this is resulting in a precipitous slide in NDP support. Funny you rarely get poll analysis from pollsters but nik feels very confident to speak about one of his polls for the first time in quite a while.
Tue, 2010-09-14 10:31
#68
Because Nanos is a pollster - gets free license to express his personal opinions and present them as if they are derived from any data he has collected when in fact they are not. They are just his personal opinions.
Tue, 2010-09-14 14:46
#69
Let us not forget what these people are.
The poll is a product.
The poll showed a huge change meanign either the poll has no value or there is a reason.
Nik is a busienssman -- he needs to find an explanation to avoid the alternate one that the poll is not accurate and has little value. Why be so surprised that he sought the best explanation he could think up following the poll.
Now if you want something a little more interesting get him to predict what the poll will do next. If he can't do that then this is all an attempt to place an explanation for the volatility that the busienss can live with (that it is not a quality problem with the poll).
Nanos is no different than any other pollster-- they all do the same thing for the same reason.
Polls are damn expensive -- if he can't explain a huge difference like that then why should someone commission a poll.
Simple explanations are often the most accurate.
Tue, 2010-09-14 15:10
#70
Because Nanos is a pollster - gets free license to express his personal opinions and present them as if they are derived from any data he has collected when in fact they are not. They are just his personal opinions.
Yet when Nanos had a poll earlier this year showing the NDP at the 20% mark it was lauded as an accurate poll and lead to several threads here stating that the NDP was now at 20% and on its way to 25%
Why is it then when a poll shows the NDP losing support it is an inaccurate poll, but when a poll shows the NDP doing well it is the gold standard?
People can't just pick and choose which polls they like. One has to take the bad news along with the good.
Tue, 2010-09-14 15:11
#71
It reminds me of the last election campaign when nanos was doing daily tracking for CPAC and every single day he would be called upon to come up with some grand explanation who one party or the other went up or down by a point. Not everything has an explanation. As recetly as last February, a nanos poll had the NDP as low as 14%, then in June he had the NDP as high as 21% - I don't recall him feeling the need to come up with some grand theory about why NDP support was surging (probably because the MSM tends to be dismissive anytime a poll shows the NDP on the upswing and gloating when the opposite happens).
What I find even more half-baked was the other article by Nanos this week where he speculated that because 90% of Canadians don't like the way Parliament is functioning - that means everyone will vote to give one of the big parties a majority...run that by me again??? I for one think parliament is totally dysfunctional -and for that very reason i don't want anyone to have a majority which would make things even worse.
Tue, 2010-09-14 15:21
#72
Ipsos-Reid Poll: Poll puts Tories on shaky ground
Conservatives - 34%
Liberals - 31%
NDP - 16%
BQ - 10%
Greens - 9%
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Poll+puts+Tories+shaky+ground/3520591/...
Tue, 2010-09-14 16:22
#73
Debator-- if you look at the posts from the time I was warning people to be cautious as polls are not accurate.
I am being consistent.
Wed, 2010-09-15 00:17
#74
Ipsos-Reid Poll: Poll puts Tories on shaky ground
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Poll+puts+Tories+shaky+ground/3520591/...
The survey found much political volatility in Ontario, the electoral battleground with the most federal seats. In that province, at 41 per cent, the Liberals have opened up a healthy lead over the Conservatives, who sit at 33 per cent. The NDP (15 per cent) and Green party (10 per cent) lag behind in the province.
These kinds of numbers in Ontario would likely see the Liberals win the mosts seats overall in Canada.
The next election will likely be decided in "Battleground Ontario".
Wed, 2010-09-15 02:21
#75
Thats what I was saying, we are still in the margin of error for nanos. I know why he has to do it. But like stock mentioned. You never saw him coming out talking about a surge by the NDP but he has been ubiquetious on this poll. They are trying to hang this on the NDP so I am pleasantly surprised Layton managed to wriggle free of the hydra trap of the two headed party.
It may be more about the media and how its putting liberal spin to push harper out...oh dont know. It just seems like a lot of coverage of the NDP but of course its all bad. Like an hebert article. My pet peeve was at his worst today while interupting layton, unlike when a con minister is allowed to ramble on. The media is polorizing issues that need not be. I may hate the media more than the cons. Probably because they buy and pay the two main parties.
Wed, 2010-09-15 07:08
#76
So we sit at 17 % +-3 % like always. I don't see a reason to quible. There isn't a poll that doesn't show the NDP in that range. We always bumb a bit during the elction.
"Hey, Buddy. Can I bumb a few votes off you." 
Wed, 2010-09-15 09:36
#77
When the chips are down, you can count on the NDP MPs. Sweet!
Tories poised for defeat on gun registry
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tories-poised-for-defeat-on...
Wed, 2010-09-15 12:20
#78
So we sit at 17 % +-3 % like always. I don't see a reason to quible. There isn't a poll that doesn't show the NDP in that range. We always bump a bit during the election.
"Hey, Buddy. Can I bumb a few votes off you."
LOL i know I have a kinda dyslexia while typing putting p's where b's belong and often putting they and the in the others spot. I have put, but in puts place a lot of times too. I don't take the time to proofread as my typing skills are slow and my reading skills are narrative instead of reading a whole line at a time I have to sound out the words in my head...make for reading novels very very long esp something dry like chomsky or the tech books I enjoy.
Wed, 2010-09-15 15:38
#79
Its interesting that supposedly the NDP gun registry quandry was supposed to be (until yesterday) lethal in Quebec more than anywhere else - yet in the Ipsos survey, NDP support in Quebec is 16% - which is the highest I've ever seen in it an ipsos poll.
Wed, 2010-09-15 17:58
#80
Good riddance to this creep. It's incredible that this rightwing hack thinks he is somehow represenative of the Canadian viewpoint. But don't worry, the right doesn't give up that easily, and they will soon be back with bigger and better plans, on how to brainwash Canadian society.
By comparison unfortunately, it makes the CBC look good, so I suppose the CBC will continue to try and puff themselves up, in their pathetic attempts to make themselves look good, by comparing themselves to the garbage this guy was going to spew out on Fox News North.
Teneycke resigns from Quebecor
Ex-Harper spokesman says furor over Sun TV News pitch had 'gotten out of hand'
http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/09/15/kory-teneycke-sun-tv-quebeco...
Wed, 2010-09-15 23:39
#81
By comparison unfortunately, it makes the CBC look good, so I suppose the CBC will continue to try and puff themselves up, in their pathetic attempts to make themselves look good, by comparing themselves to the garbage this guy was going to spew out on Fox News North.
For decades there have been hordes of Conservatives, neo-cons, and right-wingers in general who want to abolish the CBC. These right-wing zealots can't stand anything but corporate run media.
If Harper ever gets a majority the CBC might be vastly marginalized.
Thu, 2010-09-16 00:12
#82
I'm no right-winger, but if the CBC News Dept, and all their political bullshit got abolished, I would be the first to applaud.
Thu, 2010-09-16 00:33
#83
The CBC is an important counter-weight to the Conservative propaganda machine in this country, and Canadians should be pleased that we still have it. It serves a valuable role as Canada's public broadcaster. Former PM Kim Campbell even recently commended the CBC.
I'm suspicious of anyone who wants to abolish the CBC, even if they may claim to be "no right-winger".
Thu, 2010-09-16 01:13
#84
My problem debater is the CBC has never given the NDP credit when it is due. That is partisan. As of the last 4 years it has swung so hard to the right (even while called left) that it make us on the left want to see it abolished. The only problem is we also know, should it be dissolved, we have nothing to be even a little bit of a counter to multiple fox news channels trying to out right each other using spurious accusations. It is no friend to us, but at least it isn't a complete enemey is about as close as it gets, of course Evan Soloman (amoungst others) is doing a bang up job of changing that.
Thu, 2010-09-16 02:20
#85
The CBC recently moved to the right to ward off the possibility that Harper would cut their funding. As long as the CBC depends on the government of the day for its survival it will not be impartial. And this impartiality has seeped down into its programming.
Unfortunately the NDP has never been the current government of the day and it shows as the CBC often treats the NDP as a third class party.
But the answer is not to abolish our national public broadcaster. The answer is to make it more independent from the whims of the government of the day.
Also, it should receive secure and adequate funding and it should not have commercials. In this way it would also be free from corporate bias.
All the progressives I know support public broadcasting. On the other hand, conservatives would like nothing better then to see the destruction of the CBC, leaving the private sector with a monopoly over our media.
Thu, 2010-09-16 02:35
#86
It is as I suspected all along.
The Liberals, if the gun registry gets shot, will be responsible for killing it.
Liberals' turn to secure votes to save gun registry
Thu, 2010-09-16 02:41
#87
It is as I suspected all along.
The Liberals, if the gun registry gets shot, will be responsible for killing it.
Liberals' turn to secure votes to save gun registry
What does this have to do with the topic of this thread: "Latest federal political opinion polls"?
Thu, 2010-09-16 08:07
#88
At 32 per cent support, the Tories have held the slight but statistically significant lead over the past two weeks. The Liberals have also remained steady at 29 per cent support.
The Conservatives held a comfortable 11-percentage-point lead over the Liberals at the beginning of the summer, but have faced mounting criticism for their moves to scrap the mandatory long-form census and the federal long-gun registry.
The NDP's lead over the Green Party has widened, with the NDP receiving 16.6 per cent support compared with 10.7 per cent for the Greens, according to the poll.
Support for the Bloc Québécois has dropped in two weeks to 8.9 per cent, the poll suggests.
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/09/15/ekos-poll.html#socialcomments#ixzz0zgzXcmEX
JKR I was thinking of starting a new thread but there are so many poll threads right now and almost non of them have any polling...hey looky they are still calling it almost a dead heat with the cons with 3.5% lead...they also mentioned the NDP has widened the gap with the greens. 16.6 in an ekos poll is damn high for the NDP. Might as well be 18-19% anywhere else. So this is before the compromise was worked out. Cearly niks analysis was spot on. People hate the NDP because of the gun registry, clearly it explains why their numbers are up slighlty in this ekos poll that is mostly from last week and this weekend. Hey wait no mention of that though? Wonder why
It should have said(if looking at the numbers means anything) tories bring back anti registry voters from the green and the bloc. Because that is what happened in the last 2 weeks. -3% greens and -1.5% bloc. If any other party tumbled by 3% you would have a headline talking about it. Much like the Nanos poll that was everywhere last week. Even if it was from 2 weeks ago before the registry was in full swing.
Sorry just tireds of how they spin it. Want to report it, show the data and change from week to week. Don't just jump to a conclusion. You can still leave that for all the talking heads on the shows.
Thu, 2010-09-16 15:36
#89
It is as I suspected all along.
The Liberals, if the gun registry gets shot, will be responsible for killing it.
Liberals' turn to secure votes to save gun registry
What does this have to do with the topic of this thread: "Latest federal political opinion polls"?
Nothing. But NR likes to turn every thread into an opportunity to attack the Liberals.
Thu, 2010-09-16 16:57
#90
Smokin' Gun
Re: "Layton rallies MPs to save gun registry; NDP leader confident on vote,"
Sept. 15. I never thought I'd agree with Jack Layton on anything, but this time he and his NDP followers have my support. Let's fix the registry instead of scrapping it. Dumping the whole long-gun registry now would be akin to scrapping your new car because it has two flat tires. Fundamentally, the concept of a registry is a good idea. We've had it out for a very long test drive, now it's time to bring it into the shop to do some needed repairs on it. If the federal government works with legal Canadian gun owners, to fix the whole registry, then those same folks will likely support the newly repaired registry, instead of fighting it. There are many things that make little sense or are way too cumbersome to be effective. They may have been seen to be good ideas at the time, but are now quite obviously just plain silly!
Ray Courtman,
Beiseker, Alta.
http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Smoking/3532495/story.html
Thu, 2010-09-16 18:42
#91
Smokin' Gun
Re: "Layton rallies MPs to save gun registry; NDP leader confident on vote,"
http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Smoking/3532495/story.html
Why isn't this posted to: Gun Registry Part 6?
Posting this here when there are multiple gun registry threads makes no sense.
What's up with this?
Thu, 2010-09-16 18:43
#92
It is as I suspected all along.
The Liberals, if the gun registry gets shot, will be responsible for killing it.
Liberals' turn to secure votes to save gun registry
What does this have to do with the topic of this thread: "Latest federal political opinion polls"?
Nothing. But NR likes to turn every thread into an opportunity to attack the Liberals.
In that case Babble is the ultimate loser as people come here, see it's all about spin, and promptly leave.
Thu, 2010-09-16 23:35
#93
Just more typical sleazeball tactics from Canada's establishment. 
Snuffleupagus, Icarus and the strange case of Kory Teneycke's fall from grace
http://thechronicleherald.ca/Opinion/1202249.html
Thu, 2010-09-16 23:51
#94
How devastating for the Ignatieff Liberals.
No wonder the Layton-led NDP picked up, what was it 2%, in the last EKOS poll.
NDP's Layton looked like a leader in gun-registry debate
Ignatieff's heavy handedness has peeved his caucus, alienated rural voters and handed authorship of the political narrative over to Jack Layton and the NDP, who now get to exercise the balance of power in the Commons.
Having been thrust into the spotlight, NDP leader Jack Layton has quite frankly graced the stage.
His position on this private member's bill has always been clear: he wants the Commons to reform the registry to make it less invasive and offensive to rural and aboriginal Canadians while preserving its benefits for law enforcement. But he has also consistently endorsed his caucus colleagues' right to vote their consciences.
Following Ignatieff's decision to strip his colleagues of their democratic rights, Layton immediately went to work proffering his compromise position to Canadians and engaging his dissenting MPs in private, persuasive dialogue.
After weeks of sustained effort, on Tuesday afternoon Layton proudly announced he'd convinced enough of his formerly dissenting rural MPs to support the registry, meaning the firearms database will likely survive next week's crucial vote.
Layton has achieved a parliamentary and political masterstroke that should leave his peer leaders chastened and impressed.
The NDP leader has preserved democratic norms in his caucus; protected caucus unity by bringing his team around organically to a decisive consensus; and successfully withstood media and advocacy-group pressure to whip his parliamentary team. He opted instead for cool, patient persuasion and consistent, common-sense messaging.
Layton has achieved his objective of saving the gun registry while sending the right conciliatory messages to his party's crucial rural supporters in northern Ontario and the Prairies.
And perhaps most importantly from a political perspective, he's kept the NDP in the news and looking like a reasonable, responsible opposition party.
On this one, Ignatieff was outplayed by both Harper and Layton. The prime minister came out a winner because his key wedge issue and money-raiser is in tact for another election campaign. And Layton won because he gave Canadians a glimpse of what a constructive, competent and democratic opposition party is supposed to look like.
Ignatieff, however, lost the narrative, lost the initiative and deprived his MPs of long-standing democratic rights.
When Ignatieff shot himself in the foot, I hope the gun was registered.
http://news.guelphmercury.com/Opinions/EditorialOpinion/article/687955
Fri, 2010-09-17 12:01
#95
It is as I suspected all along.
The Liberals, if the gun registry gets shot, will be responsible for killing it.
Liberals' turn to secure votes to save gun registry
What does this have to do with the topic of this thread: "Latest federal political opinion polls"?
Nothing. But NR likes to turn every thread into an opportunity to attack the Liberals.
In that case Babble is the ultimate loser as people come here, see it's all about spin, and promptly leave.
Interesting observation. Never thought about that. Maybe its a two pronged effort. Attack your political opponents while discrediting a progressive organization/media/website. A win win from some peoples persepective.
Tue, 2010-09-21 00:55
#96
NDP MP's surprise switch likely means bid to scrap gun registry is dead
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndp-support-slumps-amid-gun...
Wed, 2010-09-22 01:44
#97
Seeing as it now looks like the NDP will save the gun registry, the Liberal ploy to attack the NDP for the loss of the gun registry hasn't quite worked out they way the Liberals expected. So what are the poor Liberals going to do now. It seems that unless all the Liberals MPs show up 100% to support the registry, it might well be the Liberals who cause the failure of the gun registry.
Sat, 2010-09-25 11:05
#98
IR today
Cons - 35%
Libs - 29%
NDP - 12%
Bloc - 11%
Sat, 2010-09-25 13:02
#99
Now that a 2nd pollster (Ipsos-Reid) appears to have confirmed the large drop in support for the NDP seen in the Harris-Decima poll, it looks like the hit to the NDP may be accurate afterall.
The NDP is now tied with the Green Party according to I-R, and I think 12% is the lowest level of support the NDP has had since Jack Layton became leader.
Sat, 2010-09-25 13:05
#100
remind
Yes let's get those pollsters to support the corrupt 2's contentions, and I notice you are still ignoring Sean's post about the HD BS poll.
Sat, 2010-09-25 13:14
#101
Yes let's get those pollsters to support the corrupt 2's contentions, and I notice you are still ignoring Sean's post about the HD BS poll.
How is it B.S.? The drop in support for the NDP shown in Harris-Decima has now been picked up by Ipsos-Reid as well.
Therefore, the argument I was making yesterday has just been backed up by another poll.
That doesn't mean these numbers will stay like this permanently, but do you agree that for the moment we are seeing a large drop in NDP support?