Latest federal political opinion polls - started Friday, September 3, 2010

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Sat, 2010-09-25 13:16

Sean in Ottawa

It is also possible that the same client is manipulating the Ipsos poll the same way. Without knowing what was asked before the how will you vote question it is hard to say what the poll means. From the direct knowledge I have about the Decima poll, I know the tactic is in use now so unless someone who has direct knowledge of the question order for the IR poll, I won't assume anythign different.

As wel the NDP has had a lot of negaitve publicity over this -- a self fulfilling prophecy may also be happening even thugh there is no logic for this. The NDP may have to respond to this BS by clarifyinf that it does not ever whip backbench votes due to a promise it made.

IR chronically under-represents the NDP anyway and there are other reasons for this that relate to methodology and sample and even time of day for calling.

Sat, 2010-09-25 13:16

#103

Stockholm

But then Ekos showed NDP support going up and according to L:eger just a few days ago - NDP support is at an all-time high in Quebec!

Sat, 2010-09-25 13:37

#104

Debater

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

It is also possible that the same client is manipulating the Ipsos poll the same way. Without knowing what was asked before the how will you vote question it is hard to say what the poll means. From the direct knowledge I have about the Decima poll, I know the tactic is in use now so unless someone who has direct knowledge of the question order for the IR poll, I won't assume anythign different.

As wel the NDP has had a lot of negaitve publicity over this -- a self fulfilling prophecy may also be happening even thugh there is no logic for this. The NDP may have to respond to this BS by clarifyinf that it does not ever whip backbench votes due to a promise it made.

IR chronically under-represents the NDP anyway and there are other reasons for this that relate to methodology and sample and even time of day for calling.

I agree that IR is a pro-Conservative pollster - I've said the same myself on other threads. I don't necessarily agree with everything in the poll (I think Con support is probably inflated and the NDP support a bit too low), but that doesn't mean that the drop in NDP support measured in 2 polls isn't significant. It may be a trend we will see in further polls.

I would just like to see some objectivity in looking at polling numbers here, rather than always seeing threads like "The NDP is at 20% on its way to 25% and about to dislodge the Liberals".

Sat, 2010-09-25 13:44

#105

Centrist

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
IR chronically under-represents the NDP anyway and there are other reasons for this that relate to methodology and sample and even time of day for calling.

No kidding. This poll is obviously an outlier compared to all of the other pollsters. When it comes to Ipsos, adding another 3% onto the NDP figure will likely give a better picture. In any event, the NDP still have a solid core vote in the 16% - 18% range irrespective of current polling fluctuations.

Sat, 2010-09-25 16:36

#106

Sean in Ottawa

Debater how can you keep trotting out the garbage that ehre are two legitimate polls saying NDP support dropped when at least one has been identified as a push poll with leading questions on the gun registry before the ballot question.

If you want to ignore this then I can't respect you.

If you want to debate the legitimacy of a poll that asks other questions before the ballot question -- when those are partisan questions let's go there otherwise BS mis the most polite way of characterizing your debating-- or shall I just call it repeating of a talking point.

I don't see how you get to repeat over more than one thread the same damn thing without ever acknowledging what others are saying. I'll ask again -- Do you really respect a poll that asks partisan questions prior to going on to the who would you vote for question?

Be prepared that if you answer that you do then this may get thrown back at you later.

In this case the Decima poll has already been described as leading with gun registry questions so it is not valid on voting intention. The Ipsos poll might be an outlier or it might be lead in the same way but it sure can't be packaged with a known bogus poll to add any support to your argument.

Normally I can debate you respectfully but when you completely ignore what I am saying that is contrary to yours on the facts and keep repeating the same thing that ability is lost. If you want to continue-- with respect-- engage what I am saying, refute if you can the contention that you can lead with partisan questions and still have a valid poll or stop presenting this as a valid poll.

Sat, 2010-09-25 17:06

#107

Debater

You are contending that push polling and the asking of questions regarding the gun registry is making the poll results invalid. But it is important to remember that when you state that "the Decima poll has already been described as leading with gun registry questions so it is not valid on voting intention" that this is your theory but that doesn't necessarily mean you are correct. You are stating something as a fact which is a question of debate. Perhaps the methodology is skewed and perhaps it is effecting the numbers. Perhaps it isn't. I'm open to the possibilities you raise.

I am interested in tracking the general trends, issues and inter-relationships between the parties that occur over time. I am not an expert in the precise methodology of polling. And I am a lawyer, not a mathematician. (do I sound like Dr. McCoy on Star Trek?) I work in the areas of law, social policy and research.

I am not a pollster. If you have complaints about the Harris-Decima poll, Allan Gregg would be the one to complain to. And I think John Wright was involved in the latest Ipsos-Reid poll. I said I agree that Ipsos-Reid numbers tend to overestimate Conservative support - they've been doing that as far back as the 2000 election. And I think it is time that journalists start calling out Ipsos-Reid on their obvious Conservative bias.

Sat, 2010-09-25 17:18

#108

adma

I do take this drop seriously. However, I'd wait 'til the gun-registry-vote smoke clears before judging how enduring it is...

Sat, 2010-09-25 19:39

#109

George Victor

And in seeking explanations, we must not forget that the Great Unread are not about to demand access to the information squirelled away in bureaucratic hidey holes, or even weigh issues like the gun registry against continuing environmental collapse. Nothing too "taxing." :)

Sat, 2010-09-25 19:41

#110

nicky

Debater, you should change your user profile. It says you are an office assistant. In your post #106 you say you are a lawyer.

Sat, 2010-09-25 23:27

#111

Sean in Ottawa

Debator, I have already described in detail what is wrong with that poll. I have also asked you if you think you can have valid results if you ask other questions before the voting intention question. You won't answer. The rest of your post is pointless as a result.

Sun, 2010-09-26 03:06

#112

NorthReport

Long-gun registry vote highlights divide within Liberal Party

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/long-gun-registry-vote-highlights-divide-within-liberal-party/article1725254/

Sun, 2010-09-26 03:10

#113

NorthReport

Yukon premier attacks Liberal MP over gun registry vote

For Ms. Craig and Mr. Bagnell, however, the vote was very difficult. The emotion on Mr. Bagnell's face told one part of his story; the tears told another.

Mr. Bagnell is an MP who represents a rural, northern riding. Voting to save the registry that so many of his constituents detest puts intense pressure on him in the next election. Without a doubt, the Harper Tories are looking to take his riding; they will remind voters how he reversed himself and voted with his "Toronto" leader.

Adding to the political pressure, however, was something else, something more profound - his sadness over the fact that his wife had suffered a miscarriage just 10 days earlier.

"We just wanted to support each other," explained Mr. Bagnell about his wife's presence in the gallery. "It's a hard time for both of us."

And some of his colleagues are having a hard time with the fairness of all this - putting pressure on Mr. Bagnell to come to Parliament Hill to cast a vote that could end his political career.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/north/story/2010/09/24/yukon-bagnell-gun-regist...

Sun, 2010-09-26 04:21

#114

Ken Burch

Debater, isn't it a bit much to assume that a drop in NDP support in urban areas over the gun registry in the short run will hold up over the long run?

After all, it's not going to be long before urban voters remember that, while it's possible to spin it that the Liberal position was slightly more progressive than the NDP position on this one issue, on every OTHER issue the Liberals are sharply to the right of the opinions of voters in urban areas.

Urban voters are pro-labour; the Liberals aren't.

Urban voters want significant increases in social investment; the Liberals don't(and in fact, on spending the Liberals are barely different from the Tories at all).

Urban voters want human needs to be the first priority of government; the Liberals are more concerned with appeasing Bay Street bankers and the U.S. financial elite.

Other than the gun registry(and that issue is off the table now, for awhile)what do Liberals really have to offer urban voters at all?

Sun, 2010-09-26 06:43

#115

thorin_bane

meh I will wiat till next week after the gsummit boondoggle works its way into the conscience a lttle more. Security-gate maybe? If the NDP can tie it together with teh LGR being a smokescreen, it could help. Most likely the memory hole will suck it in.

I have no idea how we have such short term and longterm memory loss.

Sun, 2010-09-26 07:06

#116

KenS

It doesnt take brilliance to predict based on past patterns that whatever short horse race effect from the registry there may have been [if it wasnt just anomolous poliing movements] will be quickly gone.

And the playing out of the summit boondoggle will have no direct effect- definitely none you'll be able to point to. What effect it can have is to keep the Cons away from the messages that will help them... and there is really only one message, the ballot question of who best t manage the economy.

The boondoggle and more to come will not directly even dent them. What it could do is be noise that doesnt allow them to adequately sink in their ballot question. Which would certianly be something. But I wouldnt hold my breath on getting that either.

Sun, 2010-09-26 12:22

#117

Sean in Ottawa

The pollsters claim any NDP drop is related to the Gun Registry but that is just a guess except for polls where they may have manufactured that result and in that case the result is bogus.

There is also the possibility that the NDP has in fact dropped for reasons other than the Registry. I certainly can attack the argument that says we know such a drop happened as inconclusive but I can't say we know for sure there is no drop and there are other reasons why it could be happening.

1) The NDP lacked visibility over the summer -- although that could change

2) there has been little play on issues the NDP has strength on recently -- although there are now some in the background

3) (more disturbing) there may be a rush to remove Harper and a greater polarization on this in part due to the census vote and the G20/8 experience which is exposing the cons even more as a party that does not let facts or truth get in the way. This polarization could lead to the squeeze some have mentioned in the past

4) The Liberals may have a little bit of a positive leadership bump for the tour after all

5) The realization we are still in economic difficulty could also play a role with the Liberals a safer option for removing Harper than the NDP in the minds of some. And the Cons are way overspending on military while we have other priorities.

If those things-- or even some of them are true (and I likely could come up with more) then there are some things the NDP will have to watch out for.

I do think that if there is a drop in NDP support, beyond an immediate connection to the Registry, there are many reasons that could explain it and some will likely go away but others could get worse.

My first and second on my list will solve themselves with only a little effort. The third can also be resolved with more effort if the Liberals are discredited as an alternative for being too much the same as the Cons. Number 4 in time will go away as I think the Liberals cannot sustain positive impressions of this leader even at the low levels they are now.

Number 5 and even number 3 will require a very strong economic platform from the NDP showing both its distinctions from both the Liberals and the Cons and that these are realistic options. Always a challenge but not impossible.

The big mistake would be to assume any low polling is actually due to the Registry as so many are saying because that will self resolve but if it is these other things they will need to have a strategy. In any case the good thing is the same strategy that I outline would be appropriate if the NDP were 15% trying to get back to 20% or at 18-20% trying to go higher. Complacency would be dangerous if people completely dismiss the possibility that there is a slump.

So to be clear, I am saying I don't think there is a Gun Registry slump to worry about, I don't know if there is in fact a slump at all, but there could be and if there is we have to look further than the Registry to find why and how to resolve it. I am not worried but just saying there are things to consider and we do not want to dismiss out of hand that there are challenges right now.

Mon, 2010-09-27 03:57

#118

Malcolm

It's also worth noting that, until about a week before the vote, the coverage of the NDP's actions re: the registry were almost entirely negative. That would be the time frame when these two polls were taken.

In the last few days before the vote and in the time since, the commentary on Layton's handling of the issue has been generally positive.

In any event, two polls from two different pollsters do not a trend make - as much as Liberal activists like Debator would wish.

Mon, 2010-09-27 07:20

#119

Maysie

Closing, long thread.

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