Toronto election predictions

I think some of you are being a bit overly optimistic about how well centre-left/left candidates will do overall. Here is my prediction:

Here's mine:

Ward 1 - Susan Hall

Ward 2 - Doug Ford

Ward 3 - Doug Holyday

Ward 4 - John Campbell (to beat Gloria Lindsay-Luby)

Ward 5 - Peter Milczyn

Ward 6 - Mark Grimes

Ward 7 - George Mammoliti

Ward 8 - Anthony Perruzza

Ward 9 - Maria Augimeri

Ward 10 - Nancy Oomen (Shifman sounds way better - but I think this woman has all the rightwing notables backing her)

Ward 11 - Frances Nunziata

Ward 12 - Frank Di Giorgio

Ward 13 - Bill Saundercook

Ward 14 - Gord Perks

Ward 15 - Rob Davis (I wish for Colle but i have a feeling the Ford suburban wave will carry in some flotsam like Davis)

Ward 16 - Karen Stintz

Ward 17 - Cesar Palacio

Ward 18 - Kevin Beaulieu (I think he has a better chance than Schein in ward 17)

Ward 19 - Mike Layton

Ward 20 - Adam Vaughan

Ward 21 - Joe Mihevc

Ward 22 - Josh Matlow

Ward 23 - John Filion

Ward 24 - David Shiner

Ward 25 - Jaye Robinson (she lost to Jenkins by 80 votes in '03 and she is a Shelley Carrol style left-liberal)

Ward 26 - Mohammed Dhanani

Ward 27 - Kevin Chan (I hope I'm wrong)

Ward 28 - Pam McConnell

Ward 29 - Mary Fragedakis

Ward 30 - Paula Fletcher

Ward 31 - Janet Davis

Ward 32 - 3M (I think Bussin won't survive all the bad publicity)

Ward 33 - Shelley Carroll

Ward 34 - Denzil Minnan-Wong

Ward 35 - Michele Berardinetti

Ward 36 - Gary Crawford

Ward 37 - Michael Thompson

Ward 38 - Glenn De Baeremaker

Ward 39 - Mike Del Grande

Ward 40 - Norm Kelly

Ward 41 - Chin Lee

Ward 42 - Neethan Shan

Ward 43 - Paul Ainslie

Ward 44 - Diana Hall

For the mayoralty I predict that the popular vote will be: Smitherman 42%, Ford 40%, Pantalone 16% and 2% will go to others.

Re: Chan in Ward 27 – he might not have the Rosedale vote quite as locked up as he wants it to be. Meynell could be a spoiler candidate there. I think Wong-Tam has enough support to push herself over the finish line. I've seen more signs for her in more places than anyone else. She's not always had the most signs in a given area, but she's always been there.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think there is interesting stuff going on in the TDSB races. Sheila Ward has been running a very, very limp campaign in the face of an active and energetic one from Chris Moise, and is ready to be toppled (disclosure: I'm working for Moise). Plus, the timing of this lawsuit regarding three other trustees seems awfully coincidental, doesn't it?

Sineed wrote:

 

And I believe it will be Smitherman.  It's been said before, but bears repeating: these polls that put Ford and Smitherman neck-and-neck are phone polls of largely home-owners, who are mostly folks > 50 years old.

The Angus Reid poll is online and has lots of young people in it and all the polling companies weight their results to reflect the demographic makeup of the city!

Sineed wrote:

And I believe it will be Smitherman.  It's been said before, but bears repeating: these polls that put Ford and Smitherman neck-and-neck are phone polls of largely home-owners, who are mostly folks > 50 years old.  I believe the anti-Ford forces have largely not been polled, and are a juggernaut that will put Smitherman well out front.  People are thinking, we still haven't lived down the last ridiculous mayor we had; the guy who envisioned himself boiling in African cooking pots and called in the military to clear our snow.  We can't have this racist wife-beating alcoholic who abuses random strangers at sporting events.

Probably the best poll taken was the Ekos poll which used entirely different system. Robocalls with a digitized response system, responding to a recorded message, one that called cell phones as well.

Quote:

A new Ekos poll of 500 Torontonians, conducted over an abnormally long nine-day time period, puts the Etobicoke councillor ahead by about 8 percentage points - with 43.9 per cent compared with George Smitherman's 35.6. Joe Pantalone garnered 15 per cent.

Interestingly immigrants were more likely to back Ford over Smitherman despite all his talk about "diversity". It may be that empty crap about "diversity" turns many non-European Canadians off.

Globe

That feels right to me. I think Ford is going to come out on top, and the only thing that can save Smitherman is the Pantalone vote collapsing, which I don't think it will. If anything I think it may go as high as 17 or 18%.

Sineed wrote:

Lord Palmerston has a nice post here:

 

http://www.rabble.ca/comment/1188112/Why-Left-should-back[/quote]

Thanks, but to give credit where credit is due that piece was written by Rich Whyman.

Lord Palmerston wrote:

Thanks, but to give credit where credit is due that piece was written by Rich Whyman.

Gracious as always, LP

edmundoconnor wrote:

Re: Chan in Ward 27 – he might not have the Rosedale vote quite as locked up as he wants it to be.

Simon Wookey is likely to get a lot of north of Bloor votes, which would hurt Chan.

To use US prognostication terminology here...

Ward 1 - Likely Suzan Hall; unless Ford coattails are working into overdrive on Vince Crisanti's behalf

Ward 2 - Safe Doug "Boss" Ford

Ward 3 - Safe Doug Holyday (but in the event that he doesn't run again, I wouldn't be surprised if his replacement turned out to be leftish or DeBaeremakerish)

Ward 4 - Toss-Up camoflauged by its being sleepy E-Tory-Coke, or else its being beneath the macro-Rob-Ford radar, but I agree that it's a genuine John Campbell over GLLuby upset prospect.

Ward 5 - Likely Peter Milczyn

Ward 6 - Likely Mark Grimes

Ward 7 - Safe Giorgio "Gino Boys Like Ford" Mammoliti 

Ward 8 - Leans Anthony Perruzza (the Li Preti rematch is overrated, unless Smitherman's brother withdrew on Li Preti's behalf)

Ward 9 - Likely Maria Augimeri (unless gravy-train + propane-explosion backlash has a yet-undiscerned effect)

Ward 10 - Leans Nancy Oomen--something about Shifman seems too wishful-think, and w/this kind of slate he might end up further back in the pack than Rabblers might wish)

Ward 11 - Safe Frances "I Support Ford" Nunziata

Ward 12 - Likely Frank Di Giorgio (though it could verge on leaning, if any opponents are galvanizing enough)

Ward 13 - Likely Bill Saundercook (though Doucette could turn it into a lean--if only it weren't the post-Miller era)

Ward 14 - Safe Gord Perks (though Ryan Hobson's astroturfing as if it were otherwise)

Ward 15 - Toss-Up (I was preparing for "Lean Rob Davis", but Colle's proving quite resilient, and who knows if Singer's splitting the right-leaning vote)

Ward 16 - Safe Karen Stintz (wouldn't it be ironic if she were anything less--yet, she *could* be)

Ward 17 - Toss-Up (if Palacio could survive 2006, he can survive 2010--superficially; yet it depends on the effect Tony Letra, or even a Ford-ite like Ben Stirpe, has on the right-Liberal vote, so who knows if Schein by default)

Ward 18 - Lean Ana Bailao (at least, she looks to be nimbler than Beaulieu)

Ward 19 - Lean Mike Layton (though maybe that should be "Likely", with both Sun and McCormick underwhelming relative to their hype)

Ward 20 - Safe Adam Vaughan

Ward 21 - Likely Joe Mihevc  (well, that old Sun poll suggested Shimmy Posen within margin)

Ward 22 - Leans Josh Matlow

Ward 23 - Likely John Filion (though it could be a sleeper leaner)

Ward 24 - Safe David Shiner

Ward 25 - Leans Cliff Jenkins (Robinson's strong; but it's the more affluent/right-leaning of the DVW wards, and Jenkins has two stability-instilling terms to John Parker's one, so there's more of an "incumbent advantage" working here)

Ward 26 - Toss-Up (a rematch, but remember Alejandra Bravo in '06, forewarned is forearmed--though jury's out whether Parker's support of Ford does more harm than good)

Ward 27 - Toss-Up (still fundamentally Chan vs Wong-Tam; but from Meynell to Tindal and beyond, there are so many spoilers fogging up the issue--maybe more Meynell than Wookey, believe it or not)

Ward 28 - Safe Pam McConnell (nominal opposition + strategic Slithersupport)

Ward 29 - Toss-Up (I'd even extend Stockholm's warning against too much centre-left/left optimism here; don't underestimate the backlash against "NDP women candidates" spilling over from Bussin/Fletcher turf into the one E End ward they don't presently hold--and also, don't underestimate the lingering good faith relative to Jane Pitfield; in any event, consider that even Pitfield, for all her pitfalls, still might mark a shift left of Ootes)

Ward 30 - Leans Paula Fletcher (well, against an anti-Bussin mood, Fletcher's practically been asking for it and more--except that Liz West's machine isn't as tight as 3M's)

Ward 31 - Safe Janet Davis (funny how bombproof she is relative to her neighbours)

Ward 32 - Leans Mary-Margaret McMahon (well, at this point, a Bussin victory would be the bigger upset)

Ward 33 - Safe Shelley Carroll

Ward 34 - Safe Denzil Minnan-Wong

Ward 35 - Toss-Up (uglier, messier, and more uncertain than the Ward 8 and 26 rematches--though if it weren't such a disputed squeaker in '06, Heaps would be all but a shoe-in)

Ward 36 - Leans Gary Crawford (as with Ward 10, I agree with Stockholm about swallowing one's left-optimism here)

Ward 37 - Safe Michael Thompson (hey--he should have been the right-wing mayoral frontrunner in lieu of Ford)

Ward 38 - Safe Glenn De Baeremaker

Ward 39 - Safe Mike "New/Vizmin Canadians Like Ford" Del Grande

Ward 40 - Safe Norm Kelly

Ward 41 - Safe Chin Lee (though if I knew what was going on in his turf, I'd be tempted to downgrade to "Likely"--but I haven't heard any implication of electoral threat here)

Ward 42 - Lean Neethan Shan (I was willing to call it a toss-up; but I'll gamble otherwise)

Ward 43 - Likely Paul Ainslie

Ward 44 - Toss-Up (a less ugly/messy rematch quandary than Ward 35, to the point where I could even wind up hazarding a "lean Ron Moeser", just to be safe--or maybe it's too much nosebleed country this far east)

Having been on the ground in Ward 22, I can tell you that it is far from a lock for Josh Matlow. I would give the lean to Chris Sellors, his opponent; however, it is close.

But as one indicator: Matlow's signs are all over, and twice as large, but Chris has the most signs on lawns, where they count. 

Then again, if Joel Dick is doing well south of Bloor that would be eating into KWT's vote.

We'll all have one consolation election night:

If Smitherman wins, at least it's not Ford.

If Ford wins, at least it's not Smitherman.

Ford                                              42%

smithermn                                   40%

Pantalone                                      13%

OTHER                                              4%

Bussin is gone

Jennifer Wood wins Ward 29

Matlow wins 22

I think Slitherman will win, ironically on the strength of strategic voters. I don't think that Ford's angry mob is going to make it to the polls.

Terence Corcoran of the National Post warns that Smitherman is a "trojan horse" for the far left and that his policies are all identical to those of David Miller. If only it were so...

Stockholm wrote:

Terence Corcoran of the National Post warns that Smitherman is a "trojan horse" for the far left and that his policies are all identical to those of David Miller. If only it were so...

Is this like how Rae was in the vanguard of socialist shock-troops in 1990?

Just home a little while ago from doing some phoning for Mary Fragedakis in Ward 29.   The campaign is feeling pretty good about things but nobody is taking anything for granted.   The left candidate lost by 20 votes four years ago and the assumption is that this time it's going to be a squeaker as well.

Most people live within short walking distance of polling stations so I don't think the weather will be that much of a factor. One thing that does irritate me is the fact that in municipal elections, the polls open at 10am and close at 8pm - why can't they open an hour or two earlier like they do in provincial and federal election so that more people can vote first thing in the morning before they go to work?? If they want to encourage voter participation - make voting hours more user friendly!!!

Stockholm wrote:

 

BTW: I'm surprised no one's mentioned all the smearing about Kristin over her alleged support for QAIA etc...a friend who lives in Rosedale got a leaflet from Wookey that was 100% devoted to the issue of Israal/Palestine and implied that that was the only issue in deciding who to vote for for Toronto city council - and all but implied that Kristen was some crazed Israel-hater etc...

Yup, there was a piece by Wookey about this in the National Post as well.

I believe there is a fair sized Jewish population in ward 27 - but it seems strange for someone to campaign on.

My prediction: Smitherman 42%, Ford 41%, Pantalone 14%.  SV carries the day for Smitherman.

And which mayoral candidate wins which ward:

Ward 1 - Ford

Ward 2 - Ford

Ward 3 - Ford

Ward 4 - Ford

Ward 5 - Ford

Ward 6 - Ford

Ward 7 - Ford

Ward 8 - Smitherman

Ward 9 - Ford

Ward 10 - Ford

Ward 11 - Smitherman

Ward 12 - Ford

Ward 13 - Smitherman

Ward 14 - Smitherman

Ward 15 - Smitherman

Ward 16 - Ford

Ward 17 - Smitherman

Ward 18 - Pantalone

Ward 19 - Pantalone

Ward 20 - Pantalone

Ward 21 - Smitherman

Ward 22 - Smitherman

Ward 23 - Ford

Ward 24 - Ford

Ward 25 - Ford

Ward 26 - Smitherman

Ward 27 - Smitherman

Ward 28 - Smitherman

Ward 29 - Smitherman

Ward 30 - Smitherman

Ward 31- Smitherman

Ward 32 - Smitherman

Ward 33 - Ford

Ward 34 - Ford

Ward 35 - Smitherman

Ward 36 - Ford

Ward 37 - Ford

Ward 38 - Ford

Ward 39 - Ford

Ward 40 - Ford

Ward 41 - Smitherman

Ward 42 - Smitherman

Ward 43 - Ford

Ward 44 - Ford

Stockholm wrote:

Everything I've heard about Ward 29 is that its between Jane Pitfield and Mary Fragedakis - if Jennifer Wood becomes a factor - it will help split the rightwing vote and make Fragedakis a certain winner.

Stockhom, I hope you are right.  Pitfield is a firend from way back.  We have somewhat different politics, but she works hard.  Don't mind Mary as a candidate, but my gut and head tell me it is going to Wood. 

Stockholm wrote:

Most people live within short walking distance of polling stations so I don't think the weather will be that much of a factor. One thing that does irritate me is the fact that in municipal elections, the polls open at 10am and close at 8pm - why can't they open an hour or two earlier like they do in provincial and federal election so that more people can vote first thing in the morning before they go to work?? If they want to encourage voter participation - make voting hours more user friendly!!!

agreed! the late start time has always baffled me too, and apparently a number of my co-workers today who were complaining about it. I would add that advanced polling stations should be open for the entire writ period.  If you want people to participate, why not use every angle available?

It looks sunny near the DVP and 401.  The weather seems pretty mild right now.

I'm curious as to how commenters other than by wishful thinking fiugured in Ward 10 Shifman would win? It's my Ward, and it's possible that six candidates are clumped within 1000 votes of each other. I am guessing Oomen will win; and if she wins by one vote, it will not have been because of me.