Not sure if this should be in the aboriginal forum or here, though it is a slight to all people in Winnipeg's north end.
http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=441957882694&id=868425553
I haven't seen this posted on the North End Votes facebook page yet, or in the MSM but I presume it will be.
Not sure if this should be in the aboriginal forum or here, though it is a slight to all people in Winnipeg's north end.
I think this is a suitable place, given that it is election season in Winnipeg.
Anyways, it's not surprising that the soon-to-be former Winnipeg mayor Sam Katz would turn is back on the North End. The truth is, the North End has been where Winnipeg's "undesirables" have ended up since the beginning, since that part of the city is separated by the rail yards. This along with de-industrialization is responsible for causing many of the problems that area faces.
One of the problems I have with many of the "downtown renewal" plans that are on the books for Winnipeg is a feeling that the city is trying to essentially shove the "riff-raff" into the North End and then forget about it. Every city likes to boast about its downtown, but Winnipeg's downtown is quite challenged. Just make it nice and glitzy without panhandlers and the powers-that-be will be very satisfied. Of course, now that the City looks ready to elect someone from the North End, perhaps that area might get the proper attention it deserves.
Actually he is looking out for poor individuals in the North End. [url=http://www.cbc.ca/canada/manitoba/story/2010/10/12/mb-katz-negative-camp...'s warning that low-income property owners could lose their homes if Judy raises property taxes[/url]
Teagan Goddard's Political Wire calls this best negative ad ever:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/10/14/best_negative_ad_ever.html
hahahaha! so hilarious, and of course, true!
poor kid, but i must admit, for so many reasons this was one of the funniest clips related to politics i've seen in a while. It's pretty much what every other attack ad WANTS to be saying but doesn't
The third version is pretty cool with its tag ending. I am wondering who the people are that really put this together? On tv last night Katz hinted that it was someone connected to JWL even though he faked-laugh about the ad itself. I wish environmental groups could put a video this well produced on oil. I went to the David Suzuki site to find something and all they had were tesitimonial videos about people's emotional connections to environmental issues. So many of those with the physcial/financial resources to put something together either have no will or intellect to put something out with impact.
Question for Winnipeggers. Do you think that the fact that this whimsical negative ad against Katz has gone VIRAL ( to say the least) will have any impact on the results of the election next week? it certainly can't exactly be good news for Katz if the image of him kicking a kid in the face gets replayed over and over and over and over again....along with a few other critical comments about him in the ad.
The last poll i saw a couple of weeks ago had Judy W-L leading by 3%. Any new word on who is winning?
Well it seems close... Grand Chief Ron Evans isn't doing the North End any favours by publicly endorsing Katz.
Of course the Chamber of Commerce released an official score card on business friendliness and Katz got 90% while Wasylycia-Leis scored 73%.
ETA: score correction
Of course the Chamber of Commerce released an official score card on business friendliness and Katz got 90% while Wasylycia-Leis scored 73%.
That's odd. I thought there was grumbling within the business community about Katz taking a "go-it-alone" approach.
I see that the latest poll by Leger in Winnipeg has Katz leading 38% to 32% but with Judy W-L's support apparently more committed and 18% undecided - so I guess all we can do is hang on for the roller coaster ride.
That poll is a poll of those who voted in the last election. By all accounts, turnout at the advance polls is well ahead. Now true, it could be that the turnout will be the same overall next Wednesday, but if the trend holds, turn-out will be higher than last go around. High voter trunouts generally do not favour incumbent politicians.
[url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/our-communities/editorial/Time-for-chan... for change at City Hall:[/url]
Simply put, Winnipeg voters must decide if Katz has done enough to warrant being rewarded with another term as mayor. Offered a viable alternative in Wasylycia-Leis — a candidate with considerable political experience who, in addition to supporting some of the initiatives pledged by her opponent, has also championed workable, grassroots solutions to local problems — it’s reasonable to suggest citizens might now be ready for a change in leadership, if only to see what someone new can bring to the table. In fact, if Wasylycia-Leis can deliver on her promises, that change could prove to be a sound choice for the city.
And now, it's time to look into the crystal ball. My picks for the winners in the following races:
Mayor: Judy Wasylycia-Leis
Charleswood-Tuxedo: Paula Havexbick (has the PC machine and the police behind her)
St Charles: Grant Nordman
Daniel McIntyre: Keith Bellamy in a squeaker
St. James-Brookklands: Scott Fielding
Point Douglas: Mike Pagtakhan
Old Kildonan: Devi Sharma (former assistant to O'Shaugnhessy)
Mynarski: Ross Eadie
North Kildonan: Jeff Browaty
Elmwood-East Kildonan: Shaneen Robinson
Transcona: Russ Wyatt
St. Boniface: Dan Vandal
St. Vital: Gord Steeves
Fort Rouge-East Fort Garry: Jenny Gerbasi
St. Norbert: Justin Swandel (if any suburban ward gives an upset, it will be this one as challenger Louise May has run an impressive campaign)
River Heights-Fort Garry-Lindenwoods: John Orlikow
Aristotle, I don't know the players apart from JWL. How does your projected council split politically? Is this a hopeful projection for progressives?
Can't really disagree with those picks, except that I think that the Mayoralty, Daniel Mac, Mynarski, Elmwood-EK and River Heights will all be squeakers. Unfortunately, those are all seats where Aristotle is predicting left-leaning candidates to win.
Assuming Aristotle's prediction comes to pass, I would say council breaks down something along the following lines (remembering that it's often about pro- vs. anti-mayor rather than left vs. right). There would be five reasonably solid progressive / pro-Mayor Judy votes - Bellamy, Eadie, Robinson, Vandal and Gerbasi. Orlikow leans left but has wavered on some issues - if he survives the traffic circle backlash and there are a few more progressives on council, he might become a sixth 'solid' vote. Then there would be another three 'swing' votes that could be pushed left or cajoled to back Mayor Judy, at least on certain issues: Wyatt, Steeves (who will do whatever it takes to get in the sitting mayor's good graces) and Pagtakhan. Sharma is a question mark but if he's cut from the same cloth as O'Shaugnessy (being his former EA) he would likely tilt to the right-wing / anti-Judy camp. Swandel is kind of hard to pin down but I'd probably put him in the anti-Judy camp. Browaty, Havixbeck, Nordman and Fielding are all Tories and definitely anti-Judy.
As I see it, there are about five hardcore progressive votes, four or five right-wingers, and the rest can be pushed to vote either way depending on the issue.
Assuming Aristotle is right, I think the votes are there to support progressive initiatives but a Mayor Judy WL will have to use the bully pulpit to rally enough council votes to pass her agenda. The problem is we could very easily end up with a Mayor Judy WL but a clear right-wing majority on council (eg if Taruc wins in Daniel Mac, Motkaluk wins Mynarski, Kowalson wins River Heights and Giesbrecht or Steen win Elmwood-EK). Or, God forbid, we could end up with Mayor Katz *and* a right-wing majority on council.
Fort Rouge-East Fort Garry: Jenny Gerbasi
I hope you're right. I really wouldn't know. It seems to me I am seeing more Ian Rabb signs than those for Gerbasi.
Assuming Aristotle is right, I think the votes are there to support progressive initiatives but a Mayor Judy WL will have to use the bully pulpit to rally enough council votes to pass her agenda. The problem is we could very easily end up with a Mayor Judy WL but a clear right-wing majority on council (eg if Taruc wins in Daniel Mac, Motkaluk wins Mynarski, Kowalson wins River Heights and Giesbrecht or Steen win Elmwood-EK). Or, God forbid, we could end up with Mayor Katz *and* a right-wing majority on council.
Sam got things through by forming an inner, "executive" circle that made decisions about a number of things. Judy could do the same. Boy, would we hear an outcry about that all of a sudden!
I would do it anyway, just to shove it back in their faces. But that's me. :)
Can't really disagree with those picks, except that I think that the Mayoralty, Daniel Mac, Mynarski, Elmwood-EK and River Heights will all be squeakers. Unfortunately, those are all seats where Aristotle is predicting left-leaning candidates to win.
I agree the mayor's race will be a squeaker. Here's why I'm willing to stand by my predictions for each seat:
Daniel Mac: Strong NDP ward. Smith has incumbency, Bellamy has organisation.
Mynarski: This is an open seat. Since it's in the North End, that gives the NDP an advantage, and with the number of people in the race it doesn't take a large number of votes, just organisation and getting your vote out.
Elmwood: If you wave the NDP flag in this ward, you've got it. In fact, opposite to ghoris, perhaps Giesbrecht and Steen may even split the right vote
River Hieghts: Some people are not happy with the tactics of the Kowalson camp. Speaking of Kowalson, [url=http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/civicelection/riverheights/Flye...'s been targeted over some lawsuits he was involved in.[/url] I really hope this wasn't orchestrated by the Orlikow camp, and I'm not a fan of dirty politics, but it's nice to finally see the gang backing Kowalson getting a taste of its own medicine.
Something I forgot to mention about St. Norbert is that the NDP shipped one of its organizers there to help Louise May. I wonder if that speaks not only to the NDP's thoughts on the mayoral race but how realistic they think they can defeat Swandel. Any other thoughts?
By the way, if we shift westard for a couple of hours, for those who are familiar with the Wheat City, [url=http://winnipeg.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20101023/wpg_brandon_101... do you think of Brandon electing a centre-left mayor?[/url]
Fort Rouge-East Fort Garry: Jenny GerbasiI hope you're right. I really wouldn't know. It seems to me I am seeing more Ian Rabb signs than those for Gerbasi.
Most of the Rabb signs I've seen are in front of buildings he owns. I'm guessing most of the people inside those buildings will go for Gerbasi.
Mind you, she's taking some flak over a proposed development in Lord Roberts, so we may not know.
IRRC, Brandon elects NDP MLAs from time to time, and Brandon itself is the best NDP polls in an otherwise unhopeful federal riding.
Of course, I could be wrong.
IRRC, Brandon elects NDP MLAs from time to time, and Brandon itself is the best NDP polls in an otherwise unhopeful federal riding.
Brandon East is a safe NDP seat, and Brandon West is traditionally conservative (the Scott Smith era notwithstanding). As for federally, the party always polls higher in Brandon that it does federally. Normally safely Conservative, but if the NDP ever start polling in the 30s federally (especially if this rise corresponds with a collapse of the Conservative vote) then this riding is in play.
Gordon Sinclair's column this past Saturday about Ian Rabb using Taras Sokolyk, the principal culprit in the two previous Tory vote rigging scandals, did not
seem to get traction in any other media that I saw.
Then there would be another three 'swing' votes that could be pushed left or cajoled to back Mayor Judy, at least on certain issues: Wyatt, Steeves (who will do whatever it takes to get in the sitting mayor's good graces) and Pagtakhan.
I have no use for Steeves, but this would be great if it works out, because he is currently the right faction's best spokesperson.
What would be really nice is if he runs for Mayor in 2014. That way we can be rid of him as Judy wins a second term, and maybe St. Vital will break its habit of imposing horrible councillors on the rest of the city.
Oh well, I can dream, can't I?
I think Steeves is a classic Liberal - wishy-washy, goes where the wind blows, latches onto whatever happens to be the flavour of the week and, most importantly, is all about holding power. Thus he was perfectly willing to get onboard with Glen Murray and serve on his EPC, and was equally happy to cozy up to Katz in order to keep his EPC seat after the change of the guard in 2004. Steeves' mayoral ambitions are the worst-kept secret at City Hall, but he is too cautious to take on a sitting incumbent. If Judy WL wins, I think Steeves is more likely to try and wait her out than challenge her in 2014, unless she makes a complete hash of her term and looks unlikely to be re-elected (a la Larry O'Brien in Ottawa). If, God forbid, Katz is re-elected and this is his last term, watch for Steeves to be one of the first in line to run in 2014.
That would be a good thing, because I really don't see any other heavy-hitters among the right flank of council.
Polls open soon. I implore every Winnipegger to please vote, if you haven't already.
Katz has been re-elected. With 71 percent of votes in, Katz has a 20,000 vote lead.
Some interesting council results. Many too close to call.
Selinger should be worried as should be Layton.
The official involvement of the NDP did no favours in my view, But I guess that these municipal elections serve lots of review by party strategists because the NDP are failing to get a decent, cohesive message out.
NDP-backed Shaneen Robinson lost a safe NDP seat in Elmwood-East Kildonan to Conservative Thomas Steen. The presence of crypto-NDP candidate Rod Giesbrecht (who lost the NDP nomination to Robinson but who I am certain is really a Tory) split the vote and let Steen come up the middle.
Daniel Mac councillor Harvey Smith, who lost the NDP nomination to Keith Belllamy, appears to have prevailed in a tight three-way race with Bellamy and WCC co-chair Cindy Gilroy-Price.
Justin Swandel beat back a challenge from NDP-backed Louise May.
NDP-backed Ross Eadie won in Mynarski over Lazarenko-endorsed Jenny Motkaluk and John Orlikow won fairly handily over Kowalson in River Heights - the only silver linings I can find in this election.
If I were Greg Selinger, I'd be very, very worried by these results.
What "official" involvement of the NDP was there? Of course Judy W-L is an NDP MP - so it goes without saying that almost all NDP brass in Winnipeg will be rooting for her - but she had Liberals Sharon Carstairs and Anita Neville backing her as well and when I was in Winnipeg a few weeks ago I didn't see any NDP logos on her election signs. I assume that there was at least as much "unofficial" Conservative involvement in the Katz campaign - if not more.
I'm sure Layton would have liked to see his friend and colleague win - but I'm not sure why he needs to "worry" about who wins that mayoralty of Winnipeg. If that's the case, maybe Stephen Harper needs to worry because non-Conservatives won the mayoralty in both Edmonton and Calgary last week!
The talk in this town, Winnipeg, was that a well-oiled NDP campaign team was helping Judy and a slew of NDP nominated counsellor nominees with this election. They were running on a slate.
As for Layton and his team, they should pay serious attention. I already compared Judy's campaign material to Naheed's campaign in Calagary. There is a stark difference in engaging the public.
There was an official NDP nomination process in a number of council seats, including Daniel Mac and Elmwood - where both nominees lost - and in Mynarski, where the nominee won.
In any event, whether "official" or "unofficial", NDP-backed candidates came up short tonight across the city and Tory-backed candidates were successful. Ross Eadie was the only NDP-backed non-incumbent to win a seat. I agree that it's hard to see how this will have implications for Layton and the federal party, to airily claim that this result does not have implications for the provincial NDP is simply to ignore reality. Sam Katz did a masterful job of painting this election as a quasi-referendum on the provincial NDP government. More time was spent on provincial issues (and in Katz's case, attacking the province) than just about any other issue.
I have been saying for a while that this election would be a 'dress rehearsal' for the 2011 provincial election, much in the same way that 1998 was a 'dress rehearsal' for 1999 and the victory of Glen Murray and election of several new left-leaning councillors (which prompted a Tory wag to comment "Welcome to the People's Republic of Winnipeg") foreshadowed the collapse of support for the Filmon Tories in the 1999 provincial election. As I said, if I were Greg Selinger these results would be making me very nervous.
As for Layton and his team, they should pay serious attention. I already compared Judy's campaign material to Naheed's campaign in Calagary. There is a stark difference in engaging the public.
I agree 100% that Layton and his people should pay close attention and take lessons from campaigns that were successful like Nenshi's and those that were not like Judy W-L. I agree that the Manitoba NDP may view this as "cautionary", but for the federal NDP - its just another electoral episode with teachable moments.
My own suspicion is that its easier to sell change and novelty with a neophyte like Nenshi than with someone like Judy (who I like very much) who has been in politics for about 30 years and has been a provincial cabinet minister, a federal MP etc...
Final results with 100% of polls reporting:
Katz 116,308 - 55%
Wasylicia-Leis - 90,913 - 43%
Council races (party affiliations noted do not appear on the ballot):
Charleswood-Tuxedo: Paula Havixbeck (Tory) defeats Jarret Hannah (Ind.) by 56 votes.
Daniel MacIntyre: Harvey Smith (incumbent) defeats Cindy Gilroy-Price (WCC/Liberal) by 108 votes and Keith Bellamy (NDP) by 352 votes.
Elmwood-East Kildonan: Thomas Steen (Tory) defeats Shaneen Robinson (NDP) by 216 votes. Former NDP nomination candidate Rod Giesbrecht finishes 204 votes behind Robinson.
Fort Rouge-East Fort Garry: Jenny Gerbasi (NDP incumbent) defeats Ian Rabb (Tory) by 5,109 votes.
Mynarski: Ross Eadie (NDP) defeats Jenny Motkaluk by 1,273 votes.
North Kildonan: Jeff Browaty (Tory incumbent) defeats Bryan Olynik (NDP) by 4,403 votes.
Old Kildonan: Devi Sharma (Lib?) defeats Casey Jones by 1,463 votes.
Point Douglas: Mike Pagtakhan (Lib incumbent) defeats Dean Koshelanyk by 5,510 votes.
River Heights: John Orlikow (WCC incumbent) defeats Michael Kowalson (Tory) by 2,036 votes.
St. Boniface: Dan Vandal (NDP incumbent) defeats Chris Watt by 11,951 (!) votes.
St. Charles: Grant Nordman (Tory incumbent) defeats Shawn Dobson (Ind.) by 2,103 votes. NDPer Lloyd Finlay a distant third.
St. James-Brooklands: Scott Fielding (Tory incumbent) defeats Deanne Crothers by 3,034 votes.
St. Norbert: Justin Swandel (Liberal incumbent) defeats Louise May (NDP) by 1,853 votes.
St. Vital: Gord Steeves (Liberal incumbent) defeats Harry Wolbert (Liberal) by 11,753 (!) votes.
Transcona: Russ Wyatt (incumbent) defeats Vlad Kowalyk by 7,618 votes.
Ready for some good news?
[url=http://www.cbc.ca/canada/manitoba/story/2010/10/27/mb-female-mayor-brand... elected its first ever left-of-cetnre mayor, and several councillors have gone down to defeat (one in third place).[/url]
As I said, if I were Greg Selinger these results would be making me very nervous.
I'm far more nervous about the fact that Greg Selinger is the man who will be leading the NDP into the next campaign.
In any case, I think the best outcome of the next provincial election would be a McFadyen minority: It satisfies the "desire for change," McFadyen has enough rope to hang himself, a minority would limit the damage, as the Liberals wouldn't want to lose votes to the NDP, and it would provide some breathing room to replace the out-of-touch clique that has a grip on the Manitoba NDP.
Ready for some good news?
Is Shari Decter Hirst any relation to Michael Decter?
Generally good news out of Brandon, although it appears NDP stalwart, former federal NDP candidate and longtime council mainstay Errol Black lost re-election by a single vote.
Ready for some good news?Is Shari Decter Hirst any relation to Michael Decter?
Generally good news out of Brandon, although it appears NDP stalwart, former federal NDP candidate and longtime council mainstay Errol Black lost re-election by a single vote.
I think you're thinking of Dr. Derry Decter, who challenged Jim McCrae in the 1995 provincial election.
As for Brandon, the unfortunate thing is that several right-wing incumbents were not challenged, which I think they could have been bounced off, considering that there was an obvious desire for change in the Wheat City. Too bad about Errol, I know.
BTW, I forgot to qualify my last post by saying that if McFadyen gets a majority, all bets are off.
Anyways ghoris, how do you figure the NDP is doomed in Manitoba? You said the same thing during the last civic election yet they pulled through.
In terms of specific candidates, I think Harvey Smith deserves congratulations for being elected back to council, and I would also like to give a shout out to Louise May who ran one hell of a campaign and unfortunately failed to knock off Swandel.
I think the main issue with the campaign (and this is probably where the communication gaps come into play) is that she tried to win the city the same way she was able to win a safe north-end NDP seat. I don’t think she was equipped to run for a position like the mayor where you have to clearly communicate your ideas, defend them to the media and against opponents, and get at your opponent’s weaknesses.
If I were Greg Selinger, I'd be very, very worried by these results.
If you look at the results in Brandon specifically, I know someone else who should be very, very worried:
Drew Caldwell.
Isn't Brandon East considered a pretty super-safe NDP seat (unlike Brandon West)?
I think the main issue with the campaign (and this is probably where the communication gaps come into play) is that she tried to win the city the same way she was able to win a safe north-end NDP seat. I don’t think she was equipped to run for a position like the mayor where you have to clearly communicate your ideas, defend them to the media and against opponents, and get at your opponent’s weaknesses.
I was somewhat puzzled by the generic platform she presented, except for the property tax issue, which was a brave and, imo, successful move. But I didn't feel there was much else to go on, and a "crime" thing just seems like such a non-issue to me, and merely shadows a fabricated conservative agenda. Of course, I don't even know what Sam was campaigning on, and it was probably much much less and that much more insipid than what Judy had to offer, so I'm not sure that's saying too much.
But even comparing the Brandon candidate's platform, which mentions specific Brandon issues and specific, unambiguous policy stances--and she won on that--frankly, I think this is what voters are looking for. They want to know what and who they're voting for, and I think they like to see a candidate take a risk and take a stance, even if it's not one they necessarily agree with. Like the tax issue. I think this is the more near future in politics. People are tired of hearing generic buzzwords. They want to know your plan.
And yes, I think she could have played up Sam's weaknesses much more.
Well the post for Mayor of Brandon used to be a safe post, and the Elmwood area of Winnipeg also used to be safe for the NDP municipally. Not anymore.
Results in Calgary, Toronto, Winnpeg and Brandon clearly show that people are frustrated, ready for change, and ready to break old habits. "Super-safe" and "safe" seats are a thing of the past. If an incumbent is actively advocating on the concerns of the voters who elected him/her, (s)he will be rewarded. If not, (s)he will be defeated. That simple.
I think you're thinking of Dr. Derry Decter, who challenged Jim McCrae in the 1995 provincial election.
I do remember Derry Decter now that you mention his name, but I was thinking of Michael Decter, who was Pawley's cabinet secretary and then Bob Rae's DM of Health, where he ended up being one of the key architects of the Social Contract. He wrote a book about health care called "Four Strong Winds".
Anyways ghoris, how do you figure the NDP is doomed in Manitoba? You said the same thing during the last civic election yet they pulled through.
Did I? I don't recall saying that but I stand to be corrected. I suppose I have a tendency to read too much into these things, but unlike 2006/07 I think there is more of a risk of the Tories riding in on a "time for a chance" mantra. Not to mention Katz basically ran this time, and won, on a "The NDP is Evil" platform. I guess we'll see where things stand in a year and maybe I'll tone down the doom and gloom for now. ;)
Isn't Brandon East considered a pretty super-safe NDP seat (unlike Brandon West)?
Traditionally, yes, but the Tories have been steadily chipping away at it the last few elections. Last time they got a very respectable 40% of the vote. Caldwell getting passed over for cabinet again won't help him.
I think katz won this because he told people what they wanted to hear: more cops, "open for business", no property tax hike, etc. And after the three people getting shot apparently at random a few days ago, i'm sure plenty of people went for the supposed "law and order" vote.
ugh. more of the same.
I think katz won this because he told people what they wanted to hear: more cops, "open for business", no property tax hike, etc. And after the three people getting shot apparently at random a few days ago, i'm sure plenty of people went for the supposed "law and order" vote.
ugh. more of the same.
At the risk of sounding too mean, to me, Sam epitomizes everything that is wrong with Winnipeg. And the fact that Winnipeggers voted him back in bodes very ill for this city, again.
Like someone said to me tonight, "I'm disappointed with Winnipeg tonight."
But even comparing the Brandon candidate's platform, which mentions specific Brandon issues and specific, unambiguous policy stances--and she won on that--frankly, I think this is what voters are looking for. They want to know what and who they're voting for, and I think they like to see a candidate take a risk and take a stance, even if it's not one they necessarily agree with. Like the tax issue. I think this is the more near future in politics. People are tired of hearing generic buzzwords. They want to know your plan.
Good point about Shari's platform, I hadn't paid much attention.
Anyways, as much as the press is going to spin it, in the end, I don't think this is exactly a ringing endorsement for Sam. People just don't like him, they feel like there's something sleazy. When you polled the public, with the exception of crime, they lined up behind Judy's position on every issue, so clearly the desire for progressive change was there. I think the message got lost, and as you said, after people became engaged, they didn't know what to expect under mayor Judy, so they reluctantly went with the devil they knew.
At the risk of sounding too mean, to me, Sam epitomizes everything that is wrong with Winnipeg. And the fact that Winnipeggers voted him back in bodes very ill for this city, again.
Like someone said to me tonight, "I'm disappointed with Winnipeg tonight."
I totally agree, I'm transplanted to Winnipeg and it never ceases to amaze me how little vision there is here for making the city something to be proud of. I had hopes for some transformation with Glenn Murray as Mayor but change didn't come nearly fast enough.
That might have had something to do with the fact that Murray bailed as soon as the Liberals dangled the prospect of a federal political career in front of him.
Anyways ghoris, how do you figure the NDP is doomed in Manitoba? You said the same thing during the last civic election yet they pulled through.Did I? I don't recall saying that but I stand to be corrected.
[url=http://archive.rabble.ca/babble/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic&f=9&t=00140... thread[/url]
Isn't Brandon East considered a pretty super-safe NDP seat (unlike Brandon West)?Traditionally, yes, but the Tories have been steadily chipping away at it the last few elections. Last time they got a very respectable 40% of the vote. Caldwell getting passed over for cabinet again won't help him.
The other problem is that those who live outside of Winnipeg generally feel that all attention is paid to Winnipeg and the outlying areas get nothing. Not having a Cabinet representative in southwestern Manitoba will really alienate that portion of the province, and basically ensures that Brandon-West stays Tory. The 2 constituencies were created in 1969, and generally tended to elect members of opposite parties. There was generally a balance in Brandon: one of the MLAs was in Cabinet, and one was an Oppositon Critic, depending on who governed. I don't know what Gary Doer and Greg Sellinger were thinking. It's now becoming really apparent that not electing Ashton as leader was a mistake, because Ashton clearly understands the power of the grassroots.
Since we're pontificating on the provincial election, I'll also point out that in each election the Manitoba NDP has been running against Gary Filmon since 1990. I think the brain rust in the party is stupid enough to try that again.
At the risk of sounding too mean, to me, Sam epitomizes everything that is wrong with Winnipeg. And the fact that Winnipeggers voted him back in bodes very ill for this city, again.I totally agree, I'm transplanted to Winnipeg and it never ceases to amaze me how little vision there is here for making the city something to be proud of. I had hopes for some transformation with Glenn Murray as Mayor but change didn't come nearly fast enough.Like someone said to me tonight, "I'm disappointed with Winnipeg tonight."
That's the other elephant in the room is the fact that we seriously mishandled the succession from Glen Murray. What went wrong? Ironically enough, had he not bailed, tonight might even have marked the start of his fourth term in office.
Related to that, the left has been trying to "take back City Hall" for a long time, starting with the Civic Reform Coalition in the 70s, Winnipeg Into The Nineties, and most recently the Winnipeg Citizen's Coalition. It absolutely boggles my mind that these groupings, by and large, have been completely ineffective at mustering any momentum for progressive change, and those in charge of the Citizen's Coalition talk as if the Winnipeg left is charting new ground. We're not, we're basically making the same mistakes over and over and getting the same results.
