That 37.3% for the Cons is awfully close to majority teritory - I doubt it will hold, but if it does, forget coalition or having much of a voice in Parliament (or the Senate or the judiciary) for the next five years. 14.2% for the NDP - wtf???
New polling thread Jan. 26/11
Fri, 2011-02-11 18:30
#102
Boom Boom
Fri, 2011-02-11 18:33
#103
Perhaps after the Conservatives attacked EKOS as being pro-Liberal, Graves decided to increase the support for the Conservatives in his poll so he wouldn't get attacked by them? I just find it odd because none of the other polls on this thread show the Cons with a lead that big.
I also don't buy the Greens being as high as 10.7%. That means the NDP has only a 3-4 point lead on them. Odd, considering how poorly the Greens have been doing in recent by-elections.
Fri, 2011-02-11 18:39
#104
Boom Boom
Perhaps after the Conservatives attacked EKOS as being pro-Liberal, Graves decided to increase the support for the Conservatives in his poll so he wouldn't get attacked by them?
I think it's just as likely that EKOS is trying to build the Cons over-confidence in themselves so they'll force an election and get a relatively poor showing. 
Fri, 2011-02-11 18:41
#105
Its interesting that the past couple of weeks the media has been buzzing about the Liberals gaining a bit of traction - then this. In the end, its all going to boil down to what happens in the campaign itself - so I'm not losing any sleep. I know that the NDP is ready go with an election if necessary. I'm curious as to whether a couple of polls like this might send the Liberals into a panic attack and desparate for an exit strategy from having an election?
37% is actually nothing special for the Tories - they actually had 38% in the last election. What magnifies their lead in this poll is that Ekos always has Green and Other support grossly inflated. I suspect that at least half of those people are either non-voters or closet Liberal and NDP supporters.
Fri, 2011-02-11 18:45
#106
What EKOS is trying to do with their artificially low NDP numbers is to try and stampede opposition voters to the Liberals to stop a Harper majority. The Liberals and their pollster supporters have been up to these BS tactics for a long time so don't expect them to stop anytime soon. This just smacks of Liberal desperation.
Fri, 2011-02-11 18:47
#107
As i said above, I don't know how the Greens can be at almost 11% when they had such terrible results in the by-elections and only got about 2% of the vote in those ridings. How is it that they are closing in on the NDP in this poll?
Does Graves list the Green Party as an option when he asks the question as to who people will vote for, or does he wait to see if the voter choses the Greens by themselves?
Fri, 2011-02-11 18:50
#108
Seasoned political followers have been ignoring green polling which has been useless for many years, basically since the day the Green Party started. It's just more BS polling to try and turn opposition voters away from the NDP. Welcome to the world of Liberal polling.
Fri, 2011-02-11 18:52
#109
Are there some pollsters that have more accurate (eg. lower) numbers for the Greens? I think in NANOS the Greens are usually at around 5-6% which seems more accurate to me than 10-11%
Fri, 2011-02-11 19:01
#110
We have discussed this before - but here is the scoop. Ekos uses an automated robo-call. You pick up the phone and a computerized voice says "Which party would you vote for if an election were held today - for Conservative Party Press 1, for Liberal party press 2, for New Democratic Party press 3, for the Green Party press 4 for some other party (such as??) press 5 (in Quebec they add in the BQ). The order of the parties and numbers are all rotated.
Nanos asks people an open ended question - Whihc party would you vote for - and you have to provide the name to the interviewer - so naturally a fake "parking lot" party like the Green Party gets demolished in the nanos methodology and goes from 11% to about 3%.
Speaking of which nanos hasn't had a poll in months!
Fri, 2011-02-11 19:10
#111
The Greens could be higher than you think. There are a lot of Liberals who are unhappy with Ignatieff right now but not wanting to go either NDP or Con. Parking with the Greens could make sense.
I don't buy the 2% stuff either-- a couple byelections is not representative of national numbers. I suspect the Greens are around 4-6% and a little bump form some ticked Liberals could easily bring them up. I am less suspicious of high Green numbers when the Liberals are this low-- those votes are going somewhere.
As I have said before I would not presume the Liberals would drop another 10% starting this low. Likely they have simply dropped already the same percent they dropped previously during campaigns. It makes sense that the 10% they could not hang on to during the last election would be the same 10% they can't hold now. I think the Liberals are close to bedrock anyway so there is not another 10% that can come off. It will take more than what has happened before to chip off that much -- namely the NDP has to poll closer or above them to drive them down more. I think Liberal bedrock support is somewhere around 22%. I would not be surprised if they hit numbers like that at the end of the campaign.
If the NDP at 14% in this poll run a campaign that gets back 3% from the Greens and 3% from the Liberals then that is just shy of 20%. These numbers may not be as far out as you think. Of course the Cons at 37% with the NDP at 20% and the Liberals at 22% would have a majority-- built in the 905 belt where the provincial Liberals are fading fast.
This is not pretty.
On the other hand there is always a chance that some of the bad stories could come home to roost bringing down Con fortunes to allow a coalition should the Liberals feel inclined. The next election is not quite decided.
Fri, 2011-02-11 19:35
#112
Not to ruin everyone's fun, but the movement is pretty much all within the MOE. In other words nothing much has changed. When I get to be Grand Dictator of the World I will be banning all such horserace polls. They are a scourge on our democracy.
Fri, 2011-02-11 19:36
#113
This poll was taken before some of the events of the last few days.
I'm wondering if some of the controversies the Conservatives have been involved in (eg. the Quebec hockey arena, the search & rescue Newfoundland snub, the anti-marijuana bill and the anti-Transgender vote) could bring them down a bit?
Fri, 2011-02-11 20:11
#114
Boom Boom
Not to ruin everyone's fun, but the movement is pretty much all within the MOE. In other words nothing much has changed. When I get to be Grand Dictator of the World I will be banning all such horserace polls. They are a scourge on our democracy.
Please ban FPTP as well.
Fri, 2011-02-11 20:19
#115
That's be number two. Number one - people who talk loudly on their cell phone for everyone else to hear. Number two - FPTP. Number three - horserace polls. Number four - Don Cherry
Fri, 2011-02-11 20:24
#116
igbymac
I believe polls are just propaganda factoids used to create chatter, distracting us from serious political discourse.
If one knew that democracy was to be "of, by and for the people" and nothing about the process of vote counting, the mere suggestion of using a FPTP system would be laughed out of town.
The issue shouldn't even register as legitimate, but for political reasons it has traction. It's a fraud perpetrated on the people thanks to the indoctrination campaign waged against us all. That's its legitimacy -- because power told us it was legitimate. Nothing more.
Fri, 2011-02-11 20:29
#117
The Greens existence sure seems to be helping out the Conservatives. The Greens have very little chance of winning any seats but their continued existence dampens the momentum the NDP and Liberals can establish. These polls that show the NDP and Greens in a horserace for third place lessen the NDP's stature in the eyes of the public. What these polls seem to show is that the "Green" brand has a lot of strength. An NDP-Green merger may be the best way to go for both parties. Either that or get rid of FPTP and establish fair voting.
Fri, 2011-02-11 20:30
#118
'New poll shows Tories well ahead of Liberals - but Harper's not buying it'
Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are telling their supporters not to believe a new poll showing them well ahead of the Ignatieff Liberals, cautioning the results are “inconsistent with our internal polling.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/new-poll-sh...
Fri, 2011-02-11 21:29
#119
I think Liberal bedrock support is somewhere around 22%. I would not be surprised if they hit numbers like that at the end of the campaign.
If the NDP at 14% in this poll run a campaign that gets back 3% from the Greens and 3% from the Liberals then that is just shy of 20%. These numbers may not be as far out as you think. Of course the Cons at 37% with the NDP at 20% and the Liberals at 22% would have a majority-- built in the 905 belt where the provincial Liberals are fading fast.
Isn't 22% awfully close to coffin-measuring time for the Liberals? While I'd love to see the Liberals six feet under, they've got the resiliency of a cockroach, and I can't see them doing *that*, quite yet.
Fri, 2011-02-11 21:33
#120
Maysie
Yowza, long thread. Closing.
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