Who Replaces Gordon Campbell II

`I think that the "glitz of Christy" cuts both ways for the BC Liberals. She could catch fire and build momentum and win a snap election`

Which is exactly what many people want and think what will happen - she has refused to say where she will run - remember she has no seat in the House - her home riding is Vancouver Fairview - held by a Liberal and a swing riding - Gordon`s Point Grey riding will be coming open as it is expected that he will resign his seat once the transition of power takes place - that riding has voted NDP in the past and is not a shoo-in - she has also not committed to stay in politics and run in the next election and be a team member - she is only on a 3 month leave from her radio job. While BC Rail will haunt her among the political types the average voter is more concernede about the economy, jobs and some civility in Victoria - none of which I think Christy is able to deliver - perhaps i can best sum it up this way - my best friend is basically non-political and hasn`t belong to any political party over our 50 + year friendship. He well knows my political views - in discussing this race he criticises me in a friendly way for my support of Abbott over Clarke and Falcon - yesterday over coffee he confided that he now likes Falcon - feels Christy is all fluff and lacks substance and seemed to be flip flopping on issues - I think his views are becoming more common among the voters -

She was the endorsement of one minor sitting MLA`s - the remainder are either in Abbott`s or Falcon camp - Stilwell has dropped out and gone to Abbott and MacDiramaid and Chong have gone to Falcon - Chong also attended Abbott`s party - it has very little to do with Federal affiliations.

Perhaps some others will have some more to say about Christy and why she shouldn`t be premier.

So, who wins if the final round is Clark vs. Falcon?

Went to an informal 'drop-in' Q&A with Abbott the other day.

Not much in the way of charisma but the Libs (and the province) could do a lot worse.

Anybody know if anything is planned in the way of all-candidates' debates for the NDP?

Interesting that based on your analysis the initial race is for second place on the first ballot (and presumably the second ballot).  Do you think that Clark has more traction with supporters of either of the second place contendors?

Clark has little or no support from the Abbott and Falcon camps - remember George has indicated that his supporters should choose Falcon as there second choice and George and Christy have been having a media war of words. Some of Abbott`s people have felt that whoever is in 2nd place after the initial count will likely emerge as the new leader and Premier.

I agree that Abbott were be the worst choice from an NDP point of view - perceive as moderate. middle of the road, liked by both sides of the House and willing to listen to people`s view - He would beat the NDP if Dix is the leader and I think it would be a toss up going against Farnworth - as Mike also a more moderate temperment etc. Both are career politicans and well versed in the art of political gamesmanship.

FYI - there is no second ballot - there is one ballot where you must pick at least two choices - all four if you like but it is highly unlikely that third or fourth choices will factor in the race - if after the first count the there is no clear winner then the fourth place person`s second choices are then counted - this is Clark`s best hope if she is too win in that she must take almost all of DeJong`s votes or points - as I stated above a large portion of Mike`s support is concentrated in a few ridings with significant Indo- Canadian voters - under the weighted system even if all 6000 members of one riding where to vote for DeJong it would only translate into 100 points in the count - he would need a lot of ridings to give Christy the Premiership. Given that Christy and Mike have one sitting member between them they don`t appear to have a lot of the ridings behind them - this is why some of the campaigns have been targetting the non Liberal ridings - mind you - having live in Mt Pleasant for 30 years finding a 100 people to support any Liberals might be tough but if you are successful then you could transfer close to all of your points to one candidate.

In talking to George - this was before the two candidates dropped out - he always felt it would go to the fourth count before a 50% +1 vote would materialize - as it stands now it will likely go to a third count.

So unlike regular conventions where candidates drop out and then go to another candidate or abstain altogether we will be require to do all of our political homework before entering that PIN number and voting our choices.

My error, the second ballot is a virtual thing.  Is there a minimum amount like 10% that a candidate needs to survive and if they don't get this do they get removed as well as the next person above them.  I know in NDP leaderships 5% has been a requirement with those below 5% being dropped as well as the lowest of the people above 5%.  I am just wondering if there is a line that De Jong has to cross to be the only one knocked off, or if there is a chance that he and the #3 finisher on the first ballot (count) could possibly be removed. 

Colin Hansen has now endorsed Kevin for the leadership - guess he wants a cabinet position in the new government - this is one more blow to Christy and solidifies Kevin growing support and one of the leaders of the anybody but Christy campaign.

Watch for Christy to start attacking Kevin - she must be sensing that he is gaining support at her expense.

Based on this endorsement I will give Kevin a slight edge over George in the race but I have made predictions before that have being wrong.

Why would Abbott`s people give their second vote to Clark when he has stated that he supports Kevin on the second count.

Why would Abbott`s people support Clark after her attacks on George for pointing out some mid-course policy changes

There is no way that DeJong support is all going to Clark - remember he has the support of no sitting MLA`s and many of his new members are concentrated in a few ridings - it`s 100 points for each riding regardless of how many members that riding has. The only riding that he may be able to deliver all 100 points would be his own. Where will the large number of Indo-Canadian votes go once Mike is off the ballot - many live in ridings where Falcon has support but George may benefit because of his argicultural background - blueberry and strawberry farmer.

Unless Christy falls from first - her second choice won`t be counted because that only happens if you are forced off the ballot - it is my understanding of the rules that even if you drop out of the race after the vote has commenced you votes will still be counted so any deal making will have to be done before the vote commences.

Yes it could be Clark and Abbott - really depends who is in second place after the first count - Colin`s endorsement of Kevin to me is the final nail in Christy`s coffin.

Mybabble - obviously I have been following the Liberal leadership campaign fairly closely as I have a say in the election of the new leader and Premier - Is there a reputable survey out there showing a riding by riding breakdown of each candidates support and how many points they will be getting from each one - I have not seen one. Falcon must have a fair amount of support with what something like 18 MLAs supporting him - they are likely to deliver the bulk of there first round support to Kevin just as the majority of Georges support will come from those MLAs supporting him.

In a weeks time we will know the answer to all of our postings and predictions.

It didn't hurt McCain's campaign to win the GOP nomination that he was seen as the choice of the "party elders" - even if it harmed him in the the general election. Hansen and Campbell are BELOVED by BC Liberal Party members. The people who will elect the next leader are the same people who would crawl naked over a parking lot full of broken glass to help Gordon Campbell - they are not at all represenattive of the electorate as a whole.

``Pleased and honoured to be receiving the second-ballot votes of key Mike de Jong organizers. Thank you to Gulzar Cheema and Prem Vinning for the support!`

North Report - I was just about to post this news myself.

When I was phoned by the DeJong people yesterday the canvasser after I indicated who my first and second would be stated that no one had indicated any support for Christy and when I asked him who his second choice was he say no way to Christy.

This is a another good turn of events for the Abbott campaign as Mike is likely the first one off the ballot.

This has been the thinking of most of the camps that once the second votes are factored in it doesn`t favor Clark and is what the Abbott team is counting and hoping will propel him to the leadership.

The poll was also open to any one - not just people who are actually voting members so while because of media exposure Christy is better known doesn`t mean that the people actually electing the new leader are of the same opinion.

The is only one ballot - you must put your minimum 2 names when you vote - under the weighted vote - there are 8500 points - 100x85 ridings - to be elected leader you need 50% + 1 = 4251- here`s a possible example of what you might see after the first count

Clark - 3000 points

Abbott - 2500 points

Falcon - 2200 points

DeJong - 800 points

There is no clear winner - so DeJong is eliminated and HIS 2nd place votes are counted - for the example let`s say all 800 points went to Clark - she would have 3800 points

Third count - Falcon is eliminated all points goes to Abbott = 2200 + 2500 = 4700 points = George Abbott is new leadewr and premier.

There was a reason why Christy`s people were probably the ones who didn`t support the 2 votes on the ballot because it was more of a handicap for WHOEVER was in first place and all camps agree that Christy is in the lead.

While this is an example I hope it gives some insight to how this voting system works. It is highly unlikely that any candidate can deliever all of their point to any one person - this is more of an example of what I would like to happen based on who I am supporting.

remind wrote:

What a pleasure, to read here BC Liberal supporters discussing who they are voting for and want to win. Okay not so much, as it gives the appearance that the BC Liberals are actually progressives and worthy  of being discussed seriously here at babble. When they are not.

 

Having said that go christie go.....cause if any of  the other sociopaths running  win, BC will be worse off.

Remind, Actually Christy Clark is the only one with a realistic chance of winning another minority/majority government. If she loses, the NDP is guaranteed the next election.

So it looks like it might actually be hard to stop Clark.

I saw that article, but it was still very unclear as to whether this was a poll of BC Liberal voters or card carrying members who have a vote in the leadership. The poll also had a very high 24% who were undecided. If this is actually a poll of party members - that seems like an extraordinarily high number of people to have no idea who they are voting for just two days before the vote!

I think that DeJong will be incredibly low.  That most of his votes will come from a few ridings surrounding his Abbotsford.  The system will reduce this even further.  Where his votes go is not important.  Whomever finishes third on the first ballot is finished.

Another thing to keep in mind is making sure that you get your supporters to cast there ballot either on -line or by toll free number from anywhere in North America.

My riding association is having a meet and greet on Saturday morning and there will be computers and phones available for any member who has there PIN to cast a vote.

My worry is that DeJong - while running fourth may transfer enough points to Clark to put her far enough ahead that even if Falcon who I think is in 3rd were too transfer most of his votes to Abbott there might be just enough slippage to Clark to put her over the top.

One question that I haven`t seen much chatter on is whether all the candidates would be willing to serve in a Cabinet if Clark was the Premier. Also would Bill Bennett and Blair Lekstrom come back into the fold if Clark wins.

Oh, oh, maybe bad news here for Christy on the eve of the vote.

BASI-VIRK: Was there a BC Liberal cabinet leak on $1 billion sale of BC Rail? Newly released evidence shows Gary Collins stunned by lobbyists' info in 2004 police interview

http://billtieleman.blogspot.com/2011/02/basi-virk-was-there-bc-liberal-...

There will be an anti-HST rally outside the Convention Centre where the Liberals will be, starting around 3-4 PM

Thanks for the link - knew I had heard it somewhere recently.

I think Clark needs to be very close to 50% on the first ballot to prevail in a multi-ballot contest. The rules require everyone to state at least a second preference. Abbott and Falcon have basically told their supporters to put the other as their second preference. A number of prominent De Jong supporters have said Abbott is their second choice. Although Clark and Abbott are probably closest together from a policy perspective (and both federal Liberals), she and Abbott have attacked one another publicly moreso than the other candidates, and I doubt that many of Abbott's supporters outside the Lower Mainland will be inclined to vote for "city-slicker" Clark.

Clark seems to be nobody's second choice. If she is close to 50% on the first ballot, she might be able to pick up enough stragglers from the other camps to go over the top. If she's at 40 percent (or lower), it's hard to see how she wins.

We're going to be stuck with whoever wins for the next two and a half years, so here's hoping that the Libs elect the person likely to do the least damage to the province.

If its Christy Clark, we shall see if it actually is 2.5 years. hasn't she been musing about calling an early election? and isn't there the issue of her not having a seat and being in danger of losing if she has to run in a byelection in Vancouver-Point Grey?