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Election forecasting - even if the election may be a while away...
Fri, 2011-03-11 14:19
#1
Boom Boom
Election forecasting - even if the election may be a while away...
Fri, 2011-03-11 14:21
#2
Boom Boom
I admit I'm not the best at consistency, hence this thread... 
Maybe there can be some kind of prize to the babbler who comes closest to the actual election results... whether it's this spring or not until 2012....
Maybe one rule could suffice: no changing of your forecast after the Writ is dropped?
(and I apologise in advance if this thread offends anyone)
Fri, 2011-03-11 21:44
#3
Hey BB those numbers look familiar...
Sat, 2011-03-12 09:11
#4
Boom Boom
Well, I worked them out, can't help it if a pollster agrees with me. 
(I might change them the closer we get to the Writ actually being dropped - to reflect an upward trend for the NDP and downward for the Libs)
Sat, 2011-03-12 09:30
#5
Party / 08 GE / Forecast / Change
Cons - 143 seats / 125 seats / Down 18 seats
NDP - 37 seats / 70 seats / Up 33 seats
Libs - 77 seats / 60 seats / Down 17 seats
Bloc - 49 seats / 53 seats / Up 4 seats
Ind - 2 seats / 0 seats / Down 2 seats
Total - 308 seats
Sat, 2011-03-12 12:11
#6
I'm noting that you are *not* predicting a Conservative majority here, NR.
Sat, 2011-03-12 15:21
#7
Predicting a Conservative majority around here would go over like a lead baloon.
Sat, 2011-03-12 16:39
#8
If the NDP and Liberals together can get more seats then the Conservatives, Harper's days as PM will likely be over.
Sat, 2011-03-12 16:40
#9
Lard Tunderin Jeezus
I don't expect things to change a great deal, but if the cards are played right, Harper could be unseated by a post-election coalition.
I expect the Liberals to suffer and lose a couple of seats (not too many, they won't do that much worse than under Dion), but I think that the NDP is poised to gain seven or eight, and the Bloc should gain eight or ten.
Say 45 NDP, 75 Lib, 60 Bloc, for an opposition total of 180, versus 123 for the Troglodytes.
I'm trying to be both realistic and optimistic at the same time...
BTW, NR - I don't want to be a partypooper, but even if we nailed every possible seat the NDP has a contender in, we'd have a hard time breaking 50 seats. An estimate of 70 borders on ridiculous, sorry to say.
Sat, 2011-03-12 17:11
#10
BTW, NR - I don't want to be a partypooper, but even if we nailed every possible seat the NDP has a contender in, we'd have a hard time breaking 50 seats. An estimate of 70 borders on ridiculous, sorry to say.
Events, dear boy/girl, events.
It's not ridiculous. It just isn't projected based on the current incrementalist model. I guessed at 70 myself in a different thread.
Sat, 2011-03-12 17:21
#11
Boom Boom
If the NDP and Liberals together can get more seats then the Conservatives, Harper's days as PM will likely be over.
I think you're forgetting the BQ... they surely will get 48 - 50 seats, and I can't see the Cons going below 130 - right there you have about 180, leaving just 128 to divvy up between the Libs and NDP. Best case scenario I can see is: Libs 70, NDP 58.
Sat, 2011-03-12 17:32
#12
LTJ must be feeling somewhat insecure about his own forecast if he feels the need to put others down for theirs. 
But I will give him credit for at least having the courage to put his forecast up, so good on him for that.
OO I thought you had even mentioned somewhere here about the possibility of 80 seats for the NDP.
This has got to be just about the worst possible timing for Harper to have had the worst possible week since he was re-elected in '08.
And with the outrageous comments just made by Tom Lukiwski, parliamentary secretary to the Conservative government house leader, next week may prove to be equally as bad, or even worse for our PM.
http://accidentaldeliberations.blogspot.com/2011/03/full-circle.html
The ground may indeed be shifting as we speak.
Sat, 2011-03-12 17:41
#13
Boom Boom
Well, babblers pay attention - I'm not convinced the general voting public cares. But the polls next week will give us some sort of idea.
Sat, 2011-03-12 18:12
#14
Polls, schmolls. Pre-election polls don't tell you anything about what will happen on E-day.
Sat, 2011-03-12 18:16
#15
LTJ must be feeling somewhat insecure about his own forecast if he feels the need to put others down for theirs.
But I will give him credit for at least having the courage to put his forecast up, so good on him for that.
OO I thought you had even mentioned somewhere here about the possibility of 80 seats for the NDP.
This has got to be just about the worst possible timing for Harper to have had the worst possible week since he was re-elected in '08.
And with the outrageous comments just made by Tom Lukiwski, parliamentary secretary to the Conservative government house leader, next week may prove to be equally as bad, or even worse for our PM.
http://accidentaldeliberations.blogspot.com/2011/03/full-circle.html
The ground may indeed be shifting as we speak.
But aren't you always saying that people don't care about this sort of stuff?
Sat, 2011-03-12 18:28
#16
welder
LTJ must be feeling somewhat insecure about his own forecast if he feels the need to put others down for theirs.
But I will give him credit for at least having the courage to put his forecast up, so good on him for that.
OO I thought you had even mentioned somewhere here about the possibility of 80 seats for the NDP.
This has got to be just about the worst possible timing for Harper to have had the worst possible week since he was re-elected in '08.
And with the outrageous comments just made by Tom Lukiwski, parliamentary secretary to the Conservative government house leader, next week may prove to be equally as bad, or even worse for our PM.
http://accidentaldeliberations.blogspot.com/2011/03/full-circle.html
The ground may indeed be shifting as we speak.
This week is'nt as bad as the week when the coalition stuff hit the fan...
Thatw as bad for him...He looked like a beaten man during that week...
Sat, 2011-03-12 18:58
#17
Well you may be correct welder but he was looking quite shaken this week and I don't think he has the prorogue option this time.
Sat, 2011-03-12 19:04
#18
Boom Boom
I agree polls are generally useless, but they give a snapshot of what people think at any one time, and a party can build on that if they're smart.
Sat, 2011-03-12 19:48
#19
Polls, schmolls. Pre-election polls don't tell you anything about what will happen on E-day.
I think its stretching things a bit to say that pre-election polls say NOTHING about what will happen on E-day. They tell you who starts off at what handicap and who needs to move the most votes etc...The best predictor of what will happen tomorrow is what happens today. We know from polls that its highly, highly, highly unlikely that the NDP is going to win all 28 seats in Alberta - but if for the past year polls had consistently shown the NDP at 55% in Alberta - we would probably be revisiting our assumptions about Alberta politics.
Sat, 2011-03-12 20:13
#20
HI. New to rabble.Have to ask stockholm how NDP is showing 55% NDP support in AB? Is this a typo? BILZY2020
Sat, 2011-03-12 20:45
#21
Polls, schmolls. Pre-election polls don't tell you anything about what will happen on E-day.
I think its stretching things a bit to say that pre-election polls say NOTHING about what will happen on E-day. They tell you who starts off at what handicap and who needs to move the most votes etc...The best predictor of what will happen tomorrow is what happens today. We know from polls that its highly, highly, highly unlikely that the NDP is going to win all 28 seats in Alberta - but if for the past year polls had consistently shown the NDP at 55% in Alberta - we would probably be revisiting our assumptions about Alberta politics.
Alright, I'll revise that. The horserace numbers now tell you nothing about the potential of each party to move up or down.
Sat, 2011-03-12 20:54
#22
I agree, but the pre-election polls do tell us something about the likely range of support that each party could get on election day depending on the usual factors. The polls tell me that no matter how badly things go it is extremely unlikely that the NDP will experience a 1993-style wipeout and be reduced to 7% of the national popular vote. The current polls also tell me that no matter how strong a campaign the NDP has and no matter how many mistakes the other parties make - its highly unlikely that there will be an NDP majority government. Let's face it, an extraordinarily good result for the NDP would be 23% and 60 seats - if either the Liberals or the Tories had that result - it would be viewed as a total fiasco for them.
Sat, 2011-03-12 21:04
#23
So, what signs were there in the pre-1990 provincial election polls that signalled the likeliness of an NDP government then?
Sat, 2011-03-12 21:17
#24
So, what signs were there in the pre-1990 provincial election polls that signalled the likeliness of an NDP government then?
One thing that might have helped is that they went into the election as Official Opposition...
Sat, 2011-03-12 21:24
#25
Really? You're right. That I had totally forgotten.
Anyways, I should wait for Stockholm's reply, but it has occurred to me that if the NDP moved ahead of the Liberals during the campaign for one or two polling cycles, that alone could lead to further dramatic shifts.
I believe that was the campaign plan last time, but events, dear boy, events.
Sat, 2011-03-12 21:51
#26
So, what signs were there in the pre-1990 provincial election polls that signalled the likeliness of an NDP government then?
The NDP had won 26% of the vote in the 1987 election and from 1967 to 1987 the ONDP was consistently getting anywhere from 21% in what at the time was seen as the disastrous 1981 election to 29% in 1975 (those were the days!). Polls before the writ was dropped in 1990 had the NDP far behind the Liberals under Peterson, but they were still closing in on 30% - so getting from 29-30% to the 37% they ended up getting wasn't such a total leap as it would be for the federal NDP to suddenly go from never getting above 20% to vaulting into the high 30s.
The 1990 was an upset, but the Ontario NDP had been seen as a serious contender for power in several elections in the 70s and 80s and as has been pointed out - was the official opposition.
Sat, 2011-03-12 21:54
#27
Election predictions. So pointless, and yet so irresistable. I can never help myself.
Based on nothing at all I will say:
Con : 126
Lib : 87
BQ : 54
NDP : 41
I do not expect the Liberals to collapse. They will be marginally competent in their campaign for a change and rebound slightly. I think the shine has come off of the Cons. Their numbers have been artificially inflated for a long time because the Liberals have seemed so hapless. They will still have the lead but lose seats to all parties, mostly the Liberals in tight races. A few extra seats for the NDP and we just squeak into coalition territory.
But what do I know? I thought everyone would love Dion.
Sat, 2011-03-12 22:02
#28
So, what signs were there in the pre-1990 provincial election polls that signalled the likeliness of an NDP government then?
The NDP had won 26% of the vote in the 1987 election and from 1967 to 1987 the ONDP was consistently getting anywhere from 21% in what at the time was seen as the disastrous 1981 election to 29% in 1975 (those were the days!). Polls before the writ was dropped in 1990 had the NDP far behind the Liberals under Peterson, but they were still closing in on 30% - so getting from 29-30% to the 37% they ended up getting wasn't such a total leap as it would be for the federal NDP to suddenly go from never getting above 20% to vaulting into the high 30s.
The 1990 was an upset, but the Ontario NDP had been seen as a serious contender for power in several elections in the 70s and 80s and as has been pointed out - was the official opposition.
OK, not trying to be needlessly argumentative, but that was in a three-party environment, right? Also, if I'm not mistaken, the NDP actually moved much higher in the polls by E-7, but got knocked back a bit by the red-scare stuff; is that your recollection, too?
Is there nothing to my idea that if the Liberals fell behind the NDP, other big movements could follow? It certainly would cause an upheaval in the news coverage.
Sat, 2011-03-12 22:57
#29
Is there nothing to my idea that if the Liberals fell behind the NDP, other big movements could follow? It certainly would cause an upheaval in the news coverage.
That could happen, but as i recall in the '08 campaign there actually were one or two Angus Reid polls that showed the Liberals and NDP virtually tied (ie: 22-20%) and there were headline declaring that it was a dead heat for second place and that the NDP had a chance to vault ahead of the Liberals and.....it didn't happen. On the contrary those stories and headlines only seemed to make longtime Liberals come to the rescue of their party. Just like how in 1988 when it looked like the NDP was going to pass the Liberals in the early campaign - Broadbent mused about a "realignment" in canadian politics with the NDP replacing the Liberals - all it did was send NDP-Liberal switchers scurrying back to the Liberals to "save the party".
Sat, 2011-03-12 22:58
#30
So, what signs were there in the pre-1990 provincial election polls that signalled the likeliness of an NDP government then?
The NDP had won 26% of the vote in the 1987 election and from 1967 to 1987 the ONDP was consistently getting anywhere from 21% in what at the time was seen as the disastrous 1981 election to 29% in 1975 (those were the days!). Polls before the writ was dropped in 1990 had the NDP far behind the Liberals under Peterson, but they were still closing in on 30% - so getting from 29-30% to the 37% they ended up getting wasn't such a total leap as it would be for the federal NDP to suddenly go from never getting above 20% to vaulting into the high 30s.
The 1990 was an upset, but the Ontario NDP had been seen as a serious contender for power in several elections in the 70s and 80s and as has been pointed out - was the official opposition.
Also the Tories were completely written off due to the Mulroney factor.
Sat, 2011-03-12 23:08
#31
Is there nothing to my idea that if the Liberals fell behind the NDP, other big movements could follow? It certainly would cause an upheaval in the news coverage.
That could happen, but as i recall in the '08 campaign there actually were one or two Angus Reid polls that showed the Liberals and NDP virtually tied (ie: 22-20%) and there were headline declaring that it was a dead heat for second place and that the NDP had a chance to vault ahead of the Liberals and.....it didn't happen.
Yes, but the NDP never actually moved ahead. If it had - especially in more than one poll - that would have changed the coverage for sure. The candidate eruptions and debate on the debate seemed to have halted the progress.
On the contrary those stories and headlines only seemed to make longtime Liberals come to the rescue of their party. Just like how in 1988 when it looked like the NDP was going to pass the Liberals in the early campaign - Broadbent mused about a "realignment" in canadian politics with the NDP replacing the Liberals - all it did was send NDP-Liberal switchers scurrying back to the Liberals to "save the party".
Well, you do have a point there, except that Party ID has really dropped off since then. I wonder how many Liberals there are left who have a sentimental enough attachment to their party that they would vote Liberal in spite of their deep revulsion for Ignatieff.
Sat, 2011-03-12 23:31
#32
I wonder which party Liberal Warren Kinsella will be voting for?
Sat, 2011-03-12 23:57
#33
It's difficult comparing the current situation with previous situations like the one in Ontario in 1991 where there were fewer parties in contention. With the current 5-party configuration the NDP needs to get a smaller porition of the votes then they have previously had to in order to be in contention. It really benefits the NDP if the Cons and Liberals split their vote as evenly as possible. If both the Cons and Libs come under 30%, things could start falling into place for a major move by the NDP.
Sun, 2011-03-13 00:22
#34
sorry doube post
Sun, 2011-03-13 00:23
#35
I know it is fun to speculate, but I am more focused these days on creating. I think if you have the availble resourses you should make an extra donation to one or more of the candidates who are on that bubble of maybe taking out a Con. Or if you know people in the riding encourage them to get involved in some way. I have four favourites, but some of you better connected folks might have a better handle and wider perspective.
Here are my four
I hate to be all old hippy- but be the change you want.
Sun, 2011-03-13 00:25
#36
LTUAE, do you know Glenn Tait in Battlefords-Lloydminster? I believe he's from the NFU out west. He's running against Gerry Ritz now.
Sun, 2011-03-13 01:06
#37
I don't know him- he's after my time- but I know some of his family. I have heard good things about him. He is a cowboy poet I think too so should be able to shine against Ritz.
Sun, 2011-03-13 07:40
#38
I was active in the 1990 Ontario campaign and saw what was coming after the first week or so.
The big advance for the NDP was in rural and small town Onterio - seats like Elgin, Chatham, Perth, Oxford, Huron, Prince Edward- Lennox, Hastings-Peterborough, Frontenac-Addington. These were all surprise wins but the 1987 election showed considerable advances for the NDP in all of these seats including many second place (if distant) finishes. This plus official opposition status made the NDP the beneficiary of the tidal wave when it happened.
Unfortunately I don't see this happening federally. The NDP base is just too low. There are only about a dozen seats that the party missed by 10% or less last time. Tidal waves happen but they are rare.
Another considerable factor in the 1990 election was that right wing minor parties, Christian Heritage, Confederation of Regions and a couple others on the fringe got a combined 8% of the vote. This is really what allowed the NDP to get a majority with 37% because so many conservative voters were siphoned off in a lost cause.
If the Greens somehow clawed their way up to 8% nationally it might well lead to a Conservative majority with the same 37% they got last election. In 1990 the conservative vote was fracured by the minor parties. This is unlikely to happen federally because Harper has thrown enough red meat to his base to prevent competion on his right flank.
Sun, 2011-03-13 10:15
#39
HI. New to rabble.Have to ask stockholm how NDP is showing 55% NDP support in AB? Is this a typo? BILZY2020
Hi, and welcome! If you have any questions about the site or our policy, please feel free to message me!
RW
Sun, 2011-03-13 11:58
#40
OK, not trying to be needlessly argumentative, but that was in a three-party environment, right? Also, if I'm not mistaken, the NDP actually moved much higher in the polls by E-7, but got knocked back a bit by the red-scare stuff; is that your recollection, too?
Not sure if there was *that* much of a red-scare bump-back; on the contrary, I think the scale of seat winnage still shocked commentators and observers who were expecting nothing more than a strong minority--the result of a perfect storm of three-way FPTP squeakers lining up on the NDP's behalf...
Sun, 2011-03-13 12:11
#41
I was active in the 1990 Ontario campaign and saw what was coming after the first week or so.
The big advance for the NDP was in rural and small town Onterio - seats like Elgin, Chatham, Perth, Oxford, Huron, Prince Edward- Lennox, Hastings-Peterborough, Frontenac-Addington. These were all surprise wins but the 1987 election showed considerable advances for the NDP in all of these seats including many second place (if distant) finishes. This plus official opposition status made the NDP the beneficiary of the tidal wave when it happened.
Unfortunately I don't see this happening federally. The NDP base is just too low. There are only about a dozen seats that the party missed by 10% or less last time. Tidal waves happen but they are rare.
And another thing that hampers the NDP in Ontario today compared to a generation ago is that, as a political "proving ground", much of their municipal base has been decimated, esp. in zones like the 905--too many of those who once might have borne the party banner are sitting on their hands, or opting for "strategic" Liberal. When it comes to potential "ground troops", the party's all too often been orphaned relative to the Lewis/Rae years...
Sun, 2011-03-13 12:52
#42
Well, thanks Boom Boom, though I wanted an assessment of one of the key assumptions that would go into any forecast.
I still believe that, outside Toronto and the immediate 905 circle around it, there are strong pick-up opportunites for the NDP if they get some wind in their sails, most of them in southwestern Ontario.
* Oshawa
* Brant
* Elgin-Middlesex-London
* Chatham-Kent Essex (the Liberals still have no candidate here after their last one flamed out in assault charges, and we just nominated a great one, Ron Franko)
* Essex
* Sarnia-Lambton
* Huron-Bruce
* Cambridge
... and who knows, maybe others. Didn't we buy anti-HST radio ads in St. Catharines, for example?
Sun, 2011-03-13 12:54
#43
Boom Boom
Just a friendly reminder this thread is for 'election forecasts' - 'election talk' has its own thread.
ETA: more "speculation" than anything else I guess.
Sun, 2011-03-13 21:21
#44
Malcolm
IF we started to see polling that showed the NDP starting to pass the Liberals, it COULD generate a further shift as the significant number of progressive voters who incomprehensibly vote Liberal could start to shift. Equally it COULD see wandering Liberals come to the aid of their party. Last time we appeared to see the latter. Next time?
When the political dynamic shifts, it can shift very fast. The ONDP moved from third party to government in two or three elections. The NSNDP nearly did it in one (and may, in te long run, be better off for not havinng succeeded). The SaskLiberals imploded when the prospect of credibility presented itself in 1995. The Sask Conservatives replaced the Liberals in two elections in the 1970s. And Alberta politics - as any junkie knows - are subject to wild and often unpredicted shifts.
It seems to me that, in ever jurisdiction, about once a generation, the window opens for a third party or a new party to displace one of the two traditional governing parties. The window opens, but sometimes the third / new party fails, and sometimes the vulnerable governing party manages to stave off the attempt.
As I said, in 1995, the SaskLiberals self-destructed. But only a coupld of years later, the NSNDP managed to consolidate and establish themselves as the credible alternative.
In 1988, the window was open for the federal NDP - but very effective messaging by the Liberals (and by pretendy progressive "strategic voting" quislings) closed te window before the NDP could scramble through.
In 1990, Bob Rae led the ONDP through the window - then slammed the window down on his fingers and crippled the NDP for a generation.
I don't know if we are facing that window for the NDP in this federal election - but we are about due and the possibilities seem to be there. Like 1988, the NDP has the most popular leader and the Liberals, led by a feckless right winger - seem incapable of organizing a flea circus on a dog's back.
While I think we're still a year away from an election, it will be interesting to watch whenever it happens.
Sun, 2011-03-13 22:13
#45
We are less than 10 days away from an election, Malcolm.
Sun, 2011-03-13 22:35
#46
Malcolm
We are either ten days away from an election, or a year away from an election. We'll know in about 11 days.
Sun, 2011-03-13 22:49
#47
Following the thread topic...
Forecast: writ in 9 or 10 days. Or this week for eDay 25 April- if the Cons can figure out the script for why that fast; or simply because they seize on an opportunity like Iggy going over the top, or whatever comes up that is good enough for them to play the adults.
"And here is what we would have put forward if the coalition had not stopped us form doing the business of government."
Sun, 2011-03-13 22:54
#48
I think there is ZERO chance of Harper dissolving parliament himself. Why would he when it is so CENTRAL to the Conservative messaging that the Liberal-Socialist-Separatist coalition (sic.) is forcing an election Canadians don't want. If Harper pulled the plug himself when the NDP is still (officially at least) still waiting to read the budget before deciding whether to support it or not - I can see a lot of downside for Harper and no upside at all.
There is some specualtion that now that the actual non-confidence vote may come as late as March 29th - meaning a May 9 election.
Sun, 2011-03-13 23:12
#49
If the Conservatives try selling the idea that they didn't want an election the opposition can point out that the Conservatives started a massive pre-election campaign weeks before they instigated the election.
The opposition can simply tell Canadians that the Conservatives could have easily avoided the election by simply putting on hold the unafordable corporate tax cuts.
The opposition should force the Conservatives to run their election campaign on tax cuts for big corporations, huge deficits, and greater debt. Let them run as the representative of big corporations and high finance, the groups that brought the global economy to its knees.
Mon, 2011-03-14 01:14
#50
I'm thinking that some of the Liberals may find unexpectedly important things to do when the federal budget comes up for a vote what with the polls being what they are. It's really their call as to whether to have an election and they may decide that looking useless (again) is better than looking suicidal.
Mon, 2011-03-14 01:26
#51
Like 1988, the NDP has the most popular leader
There's a big difference between "What leader do you want as your PM" and "What leader do you want to have a beer with/watch a hockey game with/babysit your kids"