Federal polling - started March 11, 2011

At this stage of the game, I believe the NDP can pick up 10-ish seats from the Liberals, 2 seats from the Bloc, and 15 or more from the Conservatives. If the ground really starts to move under our feet, there could be another 10 or more from the Conservatives, and a few more each from the Bloc and Liberals.

I can see us reaching 80 seats before the Liberals could, as a matter of fact.

Of course anything is possible.

Until a couple weeks ago it looked most likely to be not much change again. But all of a sudden everything is up in the air.

Right now, if you have to make a bet, it seems unlikely that the Conservatives can clear all this shit out of the way and make gains. At this point, they would be doing well ro only lose a modest amount. But thats based on the way things seem to be moving. Solid indications, but of course that could not come to pass.

With theings opening up the Liberals have a host of weaknesses when it comes to rolling with campaign dynamics. While the NDP is well positioned in a lot of ways- the ducks were lined up to roll with just this kind of opening. While the Liberals have no substantive issues they have built, an ethics attack they only think is their property, a leader who people do not and never will like and is very prone to gaffes.

Add it up.

Lens Solution wrote:

Is it not possible that the NDP could lose some seats?  They could lose some to the Liberals and some to the Conservatives.  There's no way of knowing this far out with the polls all over the place.

Very True and both parties could lose seats to the NDP.

Many things could happen.

However, the issues are good for the NDP, the Liberal leader is weak and more to the right than the last several Liberals and the NDP in spite of be accused of polling low is only a shade below the last election with a lot of money to spend on great issues. I would not bet against the NDP right now in terms of any of their seats.

The Cons have so very bad issues going right now and for that reason I would not bet against the Liberals in swing seats either even though recent poll numbers suggest otherwise-- I think the election campaign may turn some of that around.

My gut feeling is that it is Harper who might have a nasty surprise in this election.

I think the Greens may also have a rough election but I would not count them out either-- if they won a single seat they would be delighted and eventually that will happen even if their national total declines.

So I grant that Harper could get a majority here but I don't think even enough to form a government is in the bag.

Leger has just come out with a national poll of over 2,000 Canadians.The Tories have a 13 point lead over the Liberals, but they are still stuck at just 36% which is not enough for a majority:

Cons - 36%

Libs - 23%

NDP - 18%

Greens - 10%

...that leaves 13% for BQ and "other"

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/318730/sondage-leger-marketing-...

They have the NDP at 20% in Ontario and 20% in Quebec (which makes me wonder why the national number is just 18% - could we be that low everywhere else?)

NorthReport wrote:

Thanks Stock

Leger Marketing Poll today

Quebec

NPD is up 4% since January, and has moved into 2nd place in Quebec.

There was no January poll. Leger's last Canada poll was August (they did only 2 last year)

http://legermarketing.com/documents/intvote/IVFEDEN_canada.pdf

Leger had the NDP at 21% in Quebec in December & November

http://legermarketing.com/documents/intvote/IVFEDEN_quebec.pdf

Yeah, they've now added the Leger regional numbers to the Le Devoir story:

Maritimes:

Lib: 35%

Con: 28%

NDP: 24%

Green: 12%

Quebec:

BQ: 41%

NDP: 20%

Lib: 18%

Con: 16%

Green: 4%

Ontario:

Con: 41%

Lib: 27%

NDP: 20%

Green: 11%

Saskitoba:

Con: 46%

Lib: 21%

NDP: 20%

Green: 10%

Alberta:

Con: 56%

Lib: 13%

Green: 12%

NDP: 11%

BC: 

Con: 45%

Lib: 22%

Green: 17%

NDP: 13%

Some of thise numbers don't make any sense at all. For example, Leger probably transposed the NDP and Green numbers in BC.

JKR wrote:

Although they have one ad aimed at Layton.

Conservative Negative Ads

Yeah, I just saw the Layton ad. The BQ is toxic to many quarters here in BC and that ad is a toughy to overcome.

Centrist wrote:

JKR wrote:

Although they have one ad aimed at Layton.

Conservative Negative Ads

Yeah, I just saw the Layton ad. The BQ is toxic to many quarters here in BC and that ad is a toughy to overcome.

Is it the one called "NDP Ambition"?

It's time to take Harper on as the hypocrite he is.  Gilles Duceppe said the Cons considered an agreement with him back when Martin was in power, so if the Cons think Duceppe is so terrible, why did they consider working with him?

Other than BC, the Leger regional numbers for the NDP mostly make sense.  Even if the Greens and NDP were transposed in BC, the NDP number seems low.  Of course, the BC number will have a much higher margin of error.

from Canadian Association Retired Persons poll results:

Quote:

Throughout CARP's polling, the membership has shown a distinct preference for the Conservative government over the Official Opposition and this does not change even if they favour an Opposition policy proposal or budget measure. However, a serious reversal has happened every time Parliament itself [prorogation] or the institutions of government [long-form census] were disparaged or attacked - as it has in this case.

Given the historic 10-point preference among our sample for the Conservatives, a tie or slight lead for the Liberals means a significant reversal and a Liberal lead in the population overall.

I would quiblle with that very last point. Yes, it would seem to indicate something is going on in the general population... but it muddies the real news here.

[With the caveat that CARP members are not seniors in general. They may actually care more about respect for government institutions. But even if they do care more than seniors in general, we know that is a hallmark of seniors, and the apparent movement is not a good sign for the Conservatives.]

Centrist wrote:

BC: 

Con: 45%

Lib: 22%

Green: 17%

NDP: 13%

Some of thise numbers don't make any sense at all. For example, Leger probably transposed the NDP and Green numbers in BC.

No kidding the BC numbers are totally absurd and 100% out of synch with any other polling data and make me think that the Leger online sample in BC may be heavily heavily skewed (maybe its all people in the Fraser Valley and the Okanagan!). Just a couple fo days ago the BC sub-sample of a Harris-Decima poll had the NDP and Tories in a dead heat. If anything is accidentally transposed its the NDp and Liberal numbers - but even there I have my doubts. I have noticed over the years that BC sub-samples in national polls seem to be particularly prone to bizarre swings and inconsistencies.

Apart from that - the numbers in the other regions are reasonably consistent with what we have been seeing, except that i think that Leger (like many others) is grossly overestimating Green.

Nice to see some positive advertising in Quebec, playing off the higher polling numbers there. With a snappy QR code (a first for any federal party ad, I believe), too!

NorthReport wrote:

On the other hand, it is hard to imagine that a 140-seat Conservative minority would function as anything short of an effective majority with election-weary voters.

Maybe Frank Graves should stick to analysing actual poll data and leave speculation about how parties might behave in a post-election minority parliament to people who know what they are talking about.

ottawaobserver wrote:

Also, are you guys seeing no NDP TV ads in BC, either?

I haven't seen any of the NDP's ads on tv here in BC.

Just a ton of Conservative ads mostly aimed at Ignatieff.

NorthReport wrote:

bekayne,

Here is the Leger Marketing federal polling results for January, 2011 in Quebec showing the NPD at 16%, therefore the NPD is up 4%. 

 

Intentions de vote fédéral au Québec

2011 Avant répartition des indécis

Avant répartition des indécis

Mois

Nombre

PLC

BQ

PCC

NPD

PVC

Autre

NSP

NVP/ANN

Refus

PLC

BQ

PCC

NPD

PVC

Autre

Janvier

1001

16,0%

31,0%

14,0%

16,0%

5,0%

3,0%

6,0%

7,0%

2,0%

19,0%

36,0%

17,0%

19,0%

6,0%

3,0%

 

http://legermarketing.com/documents/intvote/IVFEDFR_quebec.pdf

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Thanks Stock

Leger Marketing Poll today

Quebec

NPD is up 4% since January, and has moved into 2nd place in Quebec.

There was no January poll. Leger's last Canada poll was August (they did only 2 last year)

http://legermarketing.com/documents/intvote/IVFEDEN_canada.pdf

Leger had the NDP at 21% in Quebec in December & November

http://legermarketing.com/documents/intvote/IVFEDEN_quebec.pdf

I thought you were refering to national numbers

Yup, that is exactly where the Liberal vote seems to have moved to since the Greens had 7% in the last election and have 10% in this poll and that mirror's the Liberal 3% loss. Green is the home of disaffected Liberals and closet NDpers and non-voters.

Fair Vote Canada has an interesting new Vote Calculator.

If you plug in:
Con: 35%
Lib: 27
NDP: 22
BQ: 10
Grn: 5

You get:
Con: 126
Lib: 88
NDP: 44
BQ: 50
Grn: 0

If we had fair voting you get:
Con: 109
Lib: 83
NDP: 70
BQ: 31
Grn: 15

Yeah, I was just going to post that tidbit there Stock. Only 3% would blame the NDP if an election would be held. There's a certain gravitas about that result.

BTW, ye latest Con-Ipsos poll shows;

Con: 40% (-3%)

Lib: 27% (0%)

NDP 16% (+3%) 

Using that calculator I got (using the Leger poll and FPTP only):

Conservatives 36%  - 144 seats

Liberals 23% - 70 seats

NDP 18% - 38 seats

BQ 10% - 52 seats

GPC 10% - 0 seats

(that leaves 4 seats unaccounted for)

In other words, not a huge change from where we are today.

Centrist wrote:

BTW, ye latest Con-Ipsos poll shows;

Con: 40% (-3%)

Lib: 27% (0%)

NDP 16% (+3%) 

If even pro-Conservative polls like Ipsos-Reid are showing a drop for the Cons, it looks like they may have peaked.

It's enough to make me glad I don't have cable. I was made quickly sick of little Suzie's soccer tax break when watching TV elsewhere.

I don't watch tv and have yet to see a single one of these ads.