"With the Conservatives, I think opinions are slowly starting to harden against the party and the NDP has stayed remarkably constant,"
Federal polling - started March 11, 2011
Fri, 2011-03-18 18:57
#52
Sun, 2011-03-20 19:23
#53
Another disasterous poll for the Liberals.
Conservatives most trustworthy party: election poll
OTTAWA - Canadians believe political honesty should trump economic recovery as the main issue in the next election but - in a major blow to the Liberals - voters rank the Tories as the best party to deliver a government they can trust.
Moreover, while the Liberals are hoping to make political ethics a main theme of the election, they are the last of the three main parties - ranking behind the NDP - that are trusted by Canadians in this area.
These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted March 11-15 exclusively for Postmedia News and Global National.
The results are a political bombshell, as MPs begin a historic week of intrigue on Parliament Hill that will be marked by major developments including a budget, an unprecedented vote on whether the government is in contempt of Parliament and a vote late in the week that could lead to the defeat of the government and a spring campaign that ends with a May 2 election.
-------------------------------
- 28 per cent of Canadians believe the Conservatives, if re-elected, would do the best job of "providing honest, open and trustworthy government."
- 22 per cent believe the NDP would do the best job of this.
- Just 15 per cent say the Liberals would be best at providing honest, open and trustworthy government.
- Seven per cent say the Bloc would be best.
- 29 per cent don't endorse any of the major parties as best to deliver this type of government.
Ipsos Reid president Darrell Bricker said the poll shows the Liberals were right to identify the correct issue for the campaign, but apparently neglected to ensure it would be a political winner for them.
"You can see people want to have ethical government. They're not wrong about that. What they (the Liberals) are wrong about is seeing themselves as the people who are capable of delivering it. The proof is not there for the public."
Bricker said it appears the Liberals are still haunted by the sponsorship scandal, also known as "Adscam," that blew up in the dying days of the Chretien government several years ago.
http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Conservatives+most+trustworthy+p...
Sun, 2011-03-20 20:10
#54
Obviously the Liberals are going to have credibility problems on the ethics issue because the public is going to remember the Sponsorship Scandal for a long time to come.
However, this is a poll from the pro-Conservative Ipsos-Reid, so it's not surprising it is a pro-Conservative piece which is also trying to downplay the Conservatives' ethical problems.
Sun, 2011-03-20 20:25
#55
Also, it was conducted March 11-15 (i.e., before the Carson-escort story).
Sun, 2011-03-20 20:46
#56
Here's a blog which reviews the history of some of Ipsos-Reid's questionable polling methods:
http://gettingitright2.blogspot.com/2009/06/unholy-ipsos-reid-canwest-al...
Sun, 2011-03-20 22:39
#57
Cons - 39%, down 1%
NDP - 20%, up 1%
Libs - 28%, up 1%
Harper has reason to worry: Nanos poll
Unfortunately for the Liberals, Mr. Harper's declining leadership index score is not mirrored in gains for Michael Ignatieff, whose score inched up from 37 to 40. The real winner was NDP Leader Jack Layton, whose score leapt from 44 to 51.
That improvement was also reflected in increased support for the NDP in the West. Nationally, the popularity of the Conservative Party declined by a single percentage point, to 39 per cent, with both the Liberals (28 per cent) and NDP (20 per cent) up one point from the month before. These numbers are well within the margin of error (3 per cent) and suggest little or no change in support for the three national parties.
But in Western Canada, though the much larger margin of error warrants caution, the Conservatives are noticeably down and the NDP noticeably up.
While that means little in the Prairies, where support for the Conservatives declined from the astronomical to the merely stratospheric, the numbers in British Columbia, a crucial battleground, should give the Conservatives pause.
There, support for the Conservatives dropped from 45 per cent to 38 per cent, while support for the NDP shot up from 21 per cent to 30 per cent. The Liberal vote remained largely unchanged, at 24 per cent.
The question during the spring election campaign, if it does come, is whether the grime currently clinging to Mr. Harper from recent weeks will continue to undermine his popularity, or whether he can regain his leadership momentum, and a shot at a majority government.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/john-ibbitson/harper-has-re...
Sun, 2011-03-20 23:14
#58
Cons - 39%, down 1%
NDP - 20%, up 1%
Libs - 28%, up 1%
Harper has reason to worry: Nanos poll
If the opposition parties are able to hit the airwaves with powerful negative ads against Harper, Conservative numbers could tumble.
In any case, it'll be entertaining watching Harper defend his sorry record in the debates. The opposition parties should try to have as many debates as possible.
With the Conservative huge spending advantage taken away during a 5-week election, everything might be up for grabs once the opposition is finally on an even playing field with the Conservatives. If things work out, the NDP will win enough seats to hold the balance of power in a small minority Parliament. Here in BC the NDP has a shot at winning a lot of seats like they did in '88. The Provincial BC Liberal government's unpopularity should hurt both the Conservatives and federal Liberals in BC. If history repeats itself the NDP would win 20 or more seats here in BC. That alone would pretty well deny Harper his coveted majority.
Sun, 2011-03-20 23:22
#59
I would love to see the NDP go from 9 seats to 20 in BC - but i just don't see. I think that the likeliest is a bump from 9 to 12 gaining Surrey North and North Vancouver Island from the Tories and Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca from the Liberals. Once you get past that low hanging fruit, I thik if the NDP does really well we could also see pick ups from the Liberals in Newton-North Delta and from the Tories in Kamloops...after the - it would require a major sea change for the NDP to pick anything more.
Sun, 2011-03-20 23:25
#60
Socrates
Very interesting new Nanos poll. Big gains for the NDP out West, with correspondingly large drops in the East to keep them roughly even nationally. What I found of particular interest was the increase in undecideds since their last poll. It seems the electorate is extremely volatile and a lot will depend on the campaign.
Also, I think their Quebec numbers are BS. Both Leger and CROP, who have a much better trach record with the Quebec vote and who focus on this province, have had the NDP in the 20% range over several polls. We may not get that high but we are higher than Nanos has us, take it to the bank.
Sun, 2011-03-20 23:32
#61
Once you get past that low hanging fruit, I thik if the NDP does really well we could also see pick ups from the Liberals in Newton-North Delta and from the Tories in Kamloops...after the - it would require a major sea change for the NDP to pick anything more.
If the provincial NDP can win majority governments in BC, why couldn't the federal NDP win a little bit more then half the seats here federally?
Sun, 2011-03-20 23:41
#62
It doesn't look like we are seeing a lot of change in the Nanos poll - the Cons are still bordering on majority territory, and they've only declined by 1% while the NDP and Liberals have only gone up by 1%. So it's still all within the margin of error, it seems.
Hopefully it is the beginning of a trend though, and it may mean the Cons have peaked and won't be seeing any more numbers over 40%
Sun, 2011-03-20 23:53
#63
One more thing that should be noted about the Nanos poll. Yet more evidence that the Green party will finally be euthanized this election. Nanos does not prompt ANY party names at all - he just asks people to volunteer the name of the party they would vote for. The Greens have now collapsed to 3.8% - and even that is probably a slight overestimate. If they end up falling from 6.8% to - say - 3.5% which is even less than what they got in 2004 and 2006 under Jim Harris when they first started running full slates of candidates - I think we have to say that Elizabeth May and her vanity party and D-E-D DEAD!
Mon, 2011-03-21 00:31
#64
This is definitely a good poll for the NDP, and happy that Nanos is starting to release polls more frequently as well.
Those Quebec billboards showing both Mulcair and Layton are effective. Hopefully we can duplicate them in other provinces such as Lbby and Jack in BC, Olivia and Jack in Ontario, etc. And could we get some policies up on those billboards too?
The dates of this Nanos poll is basically identical to the dates of the IR poll. Both were in the field to March 15th only, which is prior to any of the Bruce Carson stuff.
Can the NDP expect some heavy attack ads from we know where, coming against them soon?
When respondents were asked which party they supported, about 39 per cent said Conservative. Here are the results (percentage-point change from last month in brackets):
- Conservatives: 38.6 per cent (-1.1)
- Liberals: 27.6 per cent (+1)
- NDP: 19.9 per cent (+1)
- Bloc Quebecois: 10.1 per cent (+0.2)
- Greens: 3.8 per cent (-1.1)
However, the Nanos Leadership Index suggests that the raucous atmosphere on Parliament Hill -- with a rash of scandals and attack ads in the past month -- may have had a negative impact on Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
The index looks at how committed voters rank the leaders on three main qualities: trust, competence and vision.
When respondents were asked which leader they thought was the most competent, Stephen Harper dropped by 7 percentage points from last month:
- Stephen Harper, Conservative: 29.8 per cent (-7.1)
- Jack Layton, NDP: 15.9 per cent (+3.8)
- Michael Ignatieff, Liberal: 12.5 per cent (-0.2)
- Gilles Duceppe, Bloc: 8.6 per cent (+1.7)
- Elizabeth May, Green: 3.4 per cent (+0.8)
- None / Undecided: 29.8 per cent (+0.9)
When respondents were asked which leader they viewed as the most trustworthy, Harper had a slight decline from last month's poll, although still within the error of margin. But nearly a third of respondents were either undecided or chose none:
- Stephen Harper, Conservative: 26.6 per cent (-2.5)
- Jack Layton, NDP: 17.2 per cent (+0.5)
- Michael Ignatieff, Liberal: 12.7 per cent (+1.8)
- Gilles Duceppe, Bloc: 8.5 per cent (+0.8)
- Elizabeth May, Green: 4.3 per cent (+1.5)
- None / Undecided: 30.6 per cent (+0.8)
On the issue of which leader had the best vision for Canada's future, Harper also showed a drop:
- Stephen Harper, Conservative: 26.4 per cent (-6.5)
- Jack Layton, NDP: 18.3 per cent (+3.5)
- Michael Ignatieff, Liberal: 14.5 per cent (+1.2)
- Gilles Duceppe, Bloc: 4.4 per cent (+1.3)
- Elizabeth May, Green: 3.9 per cent (-0.4)
- None / Undecided: 32.5 (+0.7)
Results from those three questions are compiled for the Leadership Score Index. It has Harper again in the lead -- but down 16 points:
- Stephen Harper, Conservative: 82.8 (-16.1)
- Jack Layton, NDP: 51.4 (+7.8)
- Michael Ignatieff, Liberal: 39.7 (+2.8)
- Gilles Duceppe, Bloc: 21.5 (+3.8)
- Elizabeth May, Green: 11.6 (-1.1)
However, the Nanos poll suggests party policies, and not the strongest leader, may decide the next federal election.
Respondents were asked which factor was most important in influencing their vote: the local candidate, party policies, the party leader, or their traditional support for a party. Only 20 per cent said it was the leader:
- Party policies: 40 per cent
- Party leader: 20 per cent
- Local candidate: 12 per cent
- Traditional support: 10 per cent
- Unsure: 10 per cent
Those results suggest that "Canadians are looking for ideas to kind of latch onto, in terms of where Canada should go in the future," Nanos said.
http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Canada/20110320/conservatives-liberals-latest-...
Mon, 2011-03-21 00:46
#65
However, the Nanos poll suggests party policies, and not the strongest leader, may decide the next federal election.
Respondents were asked which factor was most important in influencing their vote: the local candidate, party policies, the party leader, or their traditional support for a party. Only 20 per cent said it was the leader:
- Party policies: 40 per cent
- Party leader: 20 per cent
- Local candidate: 12 per cent
- Traditional support: 10 per cent
- Unsure: 10 per cent
Those results suggest that "Canadians are looking for ideas to kind of latch onto, in terms of where Canada should go in the future," Nanos said.
I think running on cutting taxes for corporations will hurt the Conservatives big time.
Lowering taxes on the working class/middle class and raising taxes on big corporations and the top 2% of earners might win the NDP a lot of votes.
This poll shows that a big idea or two could change the complexion of the election.
In the wake of Japan, environmental issues might be a winner, namely cap and trade.
And democracy is up there too. So the messages of "returning power to the people", "more choices for voters", "ending the Prime Minister's dictatorship" might resonate through policies such as, abolishing the Senate, free votes, recall, initiative, outlawing unilateral prorogation/dissolution, etc....
Mon, 2011-03-21 00:50
#66
Interesting:
"in terms of the Nanos Leadership Index, Stephen Harper registered a significant 16 point drop in the past month from 98.9 points to 82.8 points. This is the most dramatic one month drop in the past two years for Harper."
Mon, 2011-03-21 01:00
#67
And Layton is the principal beneficiary.
Stephen Harper, Conservative: 82.8 (-16.1)
Jack Layton, NDP: 51.4 (+7.8)
Combine that with the NDP policies that most Canadians want, and it looks like it will a good election for the NDP.
Mon, 2011-03-21 01:02
#68
20% for the NDP nationally is great news. Caveat though - a sample size smaller than n = 300 can be inaccurate in terms of the regional numbers. In this case, Nanos has n = 275 in Ontario with the NDP at 23%, which brings the national number up considerably. Will the NDP actually achieve 23% in Ontario?
Meanwhile, Nanos has n = 244 in Quebec and the sample sizes shrink from there for the rest of the provinces/regions. Always keep that in mind when looking at the regional numbers for all pollsters. That said, the NDP at 20% nationally is still great news.
http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-W11-T460E.pdf
Mon, 2011-03-21 01:12
#69
In terms of Stockholm's list of BC ridings, I think Kootenay-Columbia should definitely be on it. And I would not normally have been hopeful on Okanagan-Coquihalla, but the Penticton paper was really positive about our choice of candidate there, saying he would make the race much closer than usual. Then, if everything was firing on all cylinders properly, you could look for something like Cariboo-Prince George or Vancouver Centre, and certainly the splits start to get a lot better for Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission.
Mon, 2011-03-21 01:15
#70
1,216 Canadians were polled across Canada for this poll. The usual size for a national poll is around 1,000 isn't it?
Big problems though for the Liberals in Ontario as the Cons have gained 6.1% over the Libs in just one month
Nanos Poll
Party / Feb, 2011 / March, 2011 / Change
Cons / 39% / 43. 2% / Up 4.2%
Libs / 32.8% / 30.9% / Down 1.9%
Mon, 2011-03-21 01:19
#71
It is suicidal for the opposition to bring down a government at 39% in the polls, I'm sorry. At best, we see a repeat of 2008 with Harper at around 145 seats. As you will remember, Harper was at his heyday right after that, just before the coalition debacle knocked him down a few notches. I remember watching Don Newman's old show Politics and how they hailed Harper as nearly invincibe. I don't want an election outcome like that ever again.
What the heck is the opposition smoking? Going into an election in this climate and these poll numbers=Harper majority.
And in a Harper majority, the NDP being the official opposition would be a pitful consolation prize. The jerk would just laugh at us and ignore us while he re-makes Canada in Karl Rove's image.
BAD BAD move.
Mon, 2011-03-21 01:21
#72
Going into an election in this climate and these poll numbers=Harper majority.
I guess by this logic, we should have expected to see a Kim Campbell majority, Paul Martin majority and a John Turner one as well.
The Nanos poll not only shows the NDP gaining as the Conservatives fall, rather than the Liberals, it is also showing some erosion of key leading indicators, and an increase in the undecided rate.
These are signals that things have the potential to move further. That's when you lock in the campaign: just in time to catch the wave upwards!
Mon, 2011-03-21 01:34
#73
Harper's not going to get a majority, maybe 125 seats this time, but you could be right in that we may be looking at a NDP Official Opposition.
The only ones who might want to back off are the Liberals who must giving it serious consideration, as we are hearing the words suicidal, massacre, etc. to describe them these days.
Mon, 2011-03-21 02:03
#74
Harper's not going to get a majority, maybe 125 seats this time, but you could be right in that we may be looking at a NDP Official Opposition.
The only ones who might want to back off are the Liberals who must giving it serious consideration, as we are hearing the words suicidal, massacre, etc. to describe them these days.
All right then. I'm going to trust you guys. Let's hope you're right.
Mon, 2011-03-21 02:24
#75
There are 2 parties who really don't want an election right now
1 - the Liberals because of the polls
2 - the Cons because of Bruce Carson
Mon, 2011-03-21 08:08
#76
And if the NDP (hypothetically) didn't, it'd be because of Jack Layton (i.e. his health)
Mon, 2011-03-21 12:02
#77
Cons over 40% make me nervous. Liberals will try to get ndp voters with the usual tactic. An ndp vote is a vote for con maj government. I learned in 90's what happens when you get a lib maj, they say good things but they rule from the right.
Mon, 2011-03-21 12:28
#78
Mon, 2011-03-21 21:03
#79
C - 34%
L - 28%
N - 17%
Support near same levels as last election: The Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll
The numbers seem at odds with what both the opposition and Conservatives hope would be a game-changing election.
The Liberals, NDP and Bloc Quebecois have been busy trying to portray the Tories as a party contemptuous of the integrity of Parliament and plagued with ethical problems.
Where the Conservatives rode to power in 2006 on a platform heavily focused on integrity and accountability, calling the Liberals a corrupt government, now the shoe is suddenly on the other foot.
But a pair of RCMP investigations, charges against Conservative officials under the Elections Act, and a contempt of Parliament process against the government has not produced a dramatic effect in the polls.
Nor does the latest poll suggest that the Conservatives are currently within reach of scoring a majority, despite the persistent unpopularity of Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff.
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/support-near-same-l...
Mon, 2011-03-21 22:26
#80
C - 34%
L - 28%
N - 17%
Support near same levels as last election: The Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll
The numbers seem at odds with what both the opposition and Conservatives hope would be a game-changing election.
The Liberals, NDP and Bloc Quebecois have been busy trying to portray the Tories as a party contemptuous of the integrity of Parliament and plagued with ethical problems.
Where the Conservatives rode to power in 2006 on a platform heavily focused on integrity and accountability, calling the Liberals a corrupt government, now the shoe is suddenly on the other foot.
But a pair of RCMP investigations, charges against Conservative officials under the Elections Act, and a contempt of Parliament process against the government has not produced a dramatic effect in the polls.
Nor does the latest poll suggest that the Conservatives are currently within reach of scoring a majority, despite the persistent unpopularity of Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff.
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/support-near-same-l...
Harris/Decima is basically a Liberal internal poll so I take it with a huge grain of salt. That said, 34% is less than Harper received in 2006 (36%) when he won just 123 seats. If he won just 34%, he could be looking at just 105-110 seats.
This is the kind of poll that makes me feel better. If we can get some confirmation of Harris/Decima, then I would be fully on board with an election.
This may all be irrelevant though because it appears that Harper has shockingly decided to capitulate and grant the "evil socialist NDP" its required initiatives in tomorow's budget.
If I were Jack, I'd take an internal poll, see if my numbers align with HD, and if they do then tell Harper to shove it no matter what he offers. If the internal poll is worse, then take Harper's offer and take credit for dragging the cons kicking and screaming away from the right wing fringes.
Win-win for the NDP indeed.
EDIT: Wow, CTV just reporting this-This sounds like Harper may be willing to go as far as Martin went in 2005 to save his government.
According to Finance Department officials:
- the retrofit program will offer grants of up to $5,000 to make homes more energy efficient
- the budget contains a boost to the Guaranteed Income Supplement of up to $600 per year for a single senior citizen, and $840 for a couple
- the government will forgive $40,000 in student loans for doctors and $20,000 for nurses who choose to work in rural communities
Government sources said the budget also includes tax credits for volunteer firefighters, a $1,000 credit for small businesses to hire employees and a $500 tax credit for children's arts programs, CTV's Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife reported Monday night. There will also be money for worker retraining, including apprenticeships in the construction industry for veterans.
Mon, 2011-03-21 22:34
#81
C - 34%
L - 28%
N - 17%
From last Harris-Decima poll:
C - down 2%
L - same
NDP - up 2%
Mon, 2011-03-21 22:38
#82
There are at least 2 pollsters, EKOS and HD who for some inexplicable reason always seem to have more favourable polling for the Liberals than the other pollsters. Whenever I see their polling I usually give the Cons and the NDP more and the Libs less.
And with Ipsos-Reid basically the same thing except it seems to always be more favourable for the Cons, so I usually subtract a bit of what they give the Cons and add a bit to the Libs and the NDP.
Mon, 2011-03-21 22:48
#83
Yeah thats great but I haven't seen anything that isn't slightly outside of MOE. I got polled last week, maybe I changed the numbers.
Anyway, Harper is in trouble, iggy is in trouble, and all the media is saying jack is in trouble. I don't know what is sadi about the bloc in quebec, but I assume some people are saying the saem thing. I could care less about anything other than getting into teh campaign. Over th 5 weeks of the election things will likely shift around a lot. People will actually pay attention and memories will be dusted off as to what the cons have and haven't done.
The old coalition opposition isn't going to bother too many given harpers support for nick clegg in britain-if the opp parties want to bring it up. And the mounting pile of scandals and lack of any governance in 5 years is going to be a hard record to ignore for anyone that isn't part of the harper base.
Lib would be doing much better if they had ANY sort of leader. Their front bench is so weak with enablers and abstainers on key votes-strangely a lot of fromer conservatives and an NDP premier. But somehow the NDP hasn't been able to capitalize on the 2 worst leaders of the major parties in years. We need to move in this election to 21% And it is doable I just don't think the NDP handlers know how to play dirty. We always try to play politics cleanly and get crunched in the middle because of it. Or relagated to the sidelines in the media driven horse race.
The budget will not be enough for any party and the cons should be charged with leaking it, which is illegal and was pointed out today on the news.
Lets just get this election over with so Iggy and Harpo are replaced. That is the most likely outcome of the election regardless of the results.
Mon, 2011-03-21 22:50
#84
There are at least 2 pollsters, EKOS and HD who for some inexplicable reason always seem to have more favourable polling for the Liberals than the other pollsters. Whenever I see their polling I usually give the Cons and the NDP more and the Libs less.
And with Ipsos-Reid basically the same thing except it seems to always be more favourable for the Cons, so I usually subtract a bit of what they give the Cons and add a bit to the Libs and the NDP.
I've found HD to be in with Ipsos as a con poller, It doesn't matter anyway. Polls are useless and even Allan Gregg said as much before back peddling because its how he earns his bread and butter. Polsters can't reach the average joe at all. Only partisan crazies that have a need for their voice to be heard. Like me.
Mon, 2011-03-21 23:06
#85
I think the Bloc and the NDP will do well in an election but there is some validity in that even if the the NDP became the Official Opposition, which it looks like they might, the Liberal vote could drop so much that Harper would get a majority, and I'm sure the NDP don't want to be facing a majority government. Maybe a year from now the the NDP will have gained additional support and then it won't matter how poorly the Liberals do. It's a tough call for Layton.
Mon, 2011-03-21 23:35
#86
A couple of polls.
Canadians surprisingly divided over education, religion, in-depth poll reveals
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/canadians-surprisingly-divided-over-education-religion-in-depth-poll-reveals/article1950897/
-----------------
Canadians don't share Harper's zest for fighter jets, debt reduction, poll shows
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/canadians-dont-share-harpers-zest-for-fighter-jets-debt-reduction-poll-shows/article1950801/
Mon, 2011-03-21 23:41
#87
Here is a very interesting tidbit from the Nanos poll:
"While 30 per cent of Canadians pick the Conservatives as the party they “trust the most in terms of economic policy,” Mr. Ignatieff’s Liberals poll a surprisingly robust second, at 21 per cent, while 16 per cent of Canadians would rather see NDP Leader Jack Layton’s hand on the economic helm."
I actually think that the real surprise is that 16% of Canadians now see the NDP as the party they most trust in terms of economic policy. That closely matches the NDP share of the national vote. In the past "economic management" was a very weak suit for the NDP and it would usually be in single digits on economic management (in other words just about the only people who thought the NDP would be the best manager of the economy were hard core party members a partisans). These numbers represent a real sea change with the NDP now competitive with the other parties in an area that used to be a weak spot!
Tue, 2011-03-22 00:06
#88
First of all, even if Harper does all of the things listed below - it adds up to much, much, much less than the BILLIONS of dollars of new spending and cancelled corporate tax cuts that the NDP pulled out of Martin and Goodale in 2005.
I hate to ruin anyone's notion that the NDP is being totally principled about what it will do on the budget. I actually suspect that Layton and the NDP as a whole has wanted a spring election for a long time and contrary to what the MSM would have you believe is NOT looking for a deal to avoid an election. I think that even if the Tories give the NDP 95% of what they were asking for - look for Layton to use the missing 5% as a reason for why the budget is unacceptable. Unless you see a really spectacular shift by the Tories that includes doubling CPP etc... the NDP will find a pretext to vote against the budget and give us the election so many of us want.
This may all be irrelevant though because it appears that Harper has shockingly decided to capitulate and grant the "evil socialist NDP" its required initiatives in tomorow's budget.
If I were Jack, I'd take an internal poll, see if my numbers align with HD, and if they do then tell Harper to shove it no matter what he offers. If the internal poll is worse, then take Harper's offer and take credit for dragging the cons kicking and screaming away from the right wing fringes.
Win-win for the NDP indeed.
EDIT: Wow, CTV just reporting this-This sounds like Harper may be willing to go as far as Martin went in 2005 to save his government.
According to Finance Department officials:
- the retrofit program will offer grants of up to $5,000 to make homes more energy efficient
- the budget contains a boost to the Guaranteed Income Supplement of up to $600 per year for a single senior citizen, and $840 for a couple
- the government will forgive $40,000 in student loans for doctors and $20,000 for nurses who choose to work in rural communities
Government sources said the budget also includes tax credits for volunteer firefighters, a $1,000 credit for small businesses to hire employees and a $500 tax credit for children's arts programs, CTV's Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife reported Monday night. There will also be money for worker retraining, including apprenticeships in the construction industry for veterans.
Tue, 2011-03-22 04:27
#89
Boom Boom
This has been debated before - that none of the parties want to defeat the govt on the budget - rather on the scandals involving lack of ethics, transparency, and accountablity - ths issues that found the govt in contempt of Parliament.
Tue, 2011-03-22 04:31
#90
There is no way that the Conservatives have "capitulated" to the NDP.
What they have done is very astute election positioning- in general, and in relation to the NDP for the dozens of two way NDP/Cons races.
The background for the last two weeks is that the NDP is weak and looking to deal. Even the reporters that have not been so convinced it is true have absorbed that inside baseball narrative to a degree. While the Liberals have most actively stoked that narrative, the Cons have stoked the associated 'NDP caucus divided' narrative.
So thats the well established background.
Into that the Conservatives craft an offer that sounds like a lot; but for people who pay attention, it falls short. I think the Cons have gone as far as they would on two counts:
a] They have conceded nothing that has long term effect on program spending levels. Most of all, nothing on CPP, that they have manipulated into pulling away from and are politically as well as fiscally committed to that. But did so by stealth, so offering nothing on CPP looks reasonable.... and nobody expected the NDP to get all its budget demands met.
b] It looks to me like the Cons have calculated going as far as they could in offering numbers of goods, without unduly risking that the NDP might surprise them and spoil their plans for an election by accepting the offer.
So now, when the NDP probably spurns the offer- which it does not have to do explicitly if it does not want to- by simply focusing on the no confidence vote on the Liberal motion..... Harper will look pretty good. "We're doing what is best for this country, we gave the NDP what they asled for, but the Coalition just wants an election."
Good positioning for any party. But especially valuable because even before all the scandals, swing voters the Cons depend on have persistent reservations about Harper as someone who does not compromise as much as they expect, etc.
John Ivison characterises this as Harper "calling the NDP's bluff.... referring to Layton's refrain about setting the partisan games aside. I wouldn't quite put it that way, but I think he's right.
Tue, 2011-03-22 05:14
#91
What vote on which the government actually falls is not the last word. What matters is what Canadians feel the government fell over. All those issues of ethics, transparency and accountability have their resonance that the Parliamentary manouvering has little to do with.
Conversely for the Cons and their ballot question: it will definitely have resonance, and still likely be primary during the election. [And the offer to the NDP bolsters that.]
That said, Harper Crew had constructed this elaborate edifice to make sure there was nothing in the election except their ballot question- versus the Coalition as spoilers of Canadians' needs. At a minimum, the dominance of that ballot question is gone. So even if their ballot question is 'only' clouded, it is no longer solely the game the Cons were planning to play. The ground has shifted. How much remains to be seen; but whatever the degree, just the fact of the shift is significant.
____________________________
There is a larger and more general point there: in peoples fixation with the formal high drama- like which confidence motion on what issue is it going to be- the more meaningful framing going on is often lost.
Tue, 2011-03-22 08:38
#92
Layton has an easy out. No movement on the HST and very minimal movement on the GIS . That's pretty good positioning too. (and also something Layton said in every interview I heard/read him in - would try to make it look like they were doing something big when there weren't - that theme anyways)
Layton can also easily say- if all things were equal we would support this budget. However, since I met with the Prime Minister Canadians have seen a government that has been found in contempt of Parliament, senior Conservative figures have been charged with election finance fraud, a senior Conservative insider and advisor to the PM has been exposed as having alledgedly accepted money for access to the governments inner circle, Canada's independent watchdog has revealed that the government low-balled estimates on those fighter jets and we now know the real cost will be 30 billion dollars... and that's just the list off the top of my head. With all this in mind we just don't think this government has the credibility to continue so will remove confidence on a non-budget vote.
Pretty easy and credible transition if they want it
Tue, 2011-03-22 08:52
#93
I agree that the NDP has not been put in a difficult place.
But the Conservatives have positioned themselves well. And well enough to inflict some measure of pain on the NDP in the mostly west two way races. But the primary benefit for the Conservatives is to generally bolster one of their weak points.
Tue, 2011-03-22 09:04
#94
Yeah I would say both the Conservatives and NDP have played this as well as they could have given the relative decks the cards were coming from. The Liberals threw in their pot too early and are on the outside looking in. Only brand loyalty is working for them these days- lucky for them that brand loyalty is very strong and exists in the pundocriscy so they have been able to keep some attention for themselves.
Tue, 2011-03-22 10:22
#95
The Conservatives would never introduce a budget like this if they intended to enact it. It's not a capitulation to NDP demands to keep the government afloat, it's a clever but empty gesture towards moderation pre-election.
Tue, 2011-03-22 10:36
#96
I agree 100% - for the Tories, its good election positioning to give the appearance of having at least tried to meet some of the opposition demands. It helps inoculate them against their bad image of being a bunch of uncompromising hard asses.
Tue, 2011-03-22 13:20
#97
Hard to say. It suits everyone to look like they tried to avoid an election.
Tue, 2011-03-22 13:20
#98
Hard to say. It suits everyone to look like they tried to avoid an election.
Tue, 2011-03-22 13:21
#99
BREAKING NEWS:
Conservatives call 11th hour budget meeting with NDP
The Conservative government is pulling out the stops to try and make a deal to pass the federal budget, organizing a last-minute meeting with the NDP
Too bad it won't work. See the below:
NDP officials told Fife that Layton considered the items to be "half measures."
"They said the only way they would win their support...would be if there was a major commitment in the budget to double the Canada Pension Plan and Conservatives say that isn't there because they can't get provincial approval," Fife told CTV's Canada AM.
"If they don't see that big move, that big commitment on the CPP it's pretty likely the NDP will vote down the government."
The NDP had also called for an end to the tax on home heating fuel, but there's no sign the government will meet that demand either.
Thank god Layton is not going to throw Harper a lifeline.
Tue, 2011-03-22 13:23
#100
Yeah I edited my post after reading further down the article. This govenment is assuredly done.
Tue, 2011-03-22 14:44
#101