Federal political polling - started March 22, 2011

The full release of the Harris Decima poll is out:

http://www.harrisdecima.ca/sites/default/files/releases/2011/03/22/hd-20...

Take a peek at the B.C. graph (p.5).  Is political opinion in B.C. really that fluid, or is the small sample size?  I notice that B.C. results change month-by-month and pollster-by-pollster more than any other place in Canada.

Is anything being done by the NDP to counter the Ipsos-Reid spin?  It seems to be that no one is bothering to take them on or get journalists to investigate Darrel Bricker and Ipsos-Reid for what could be poll-rigging.  They have a history of publishing pro-Conservative polls with ridiculous regional numbers (such as the one above) and no one takes them on in the media.

Look at I-R's numbers for Quebec.  Not to mention some of the other regions.

This person's site is a useful starting point:

http://gettingitright2.blogspot.com/2009/06/unholy-ipsos-reid-canwest-al...

1.  It's not the best poll for the NDP either, though.  I-R (as usual) has the NDP trailing in every region, including in the Maritimes, Ontario, the Prairies and B.C.  The I-R poll also shows the NDP in last place in Quebec and shows the Cons as the 2nd place alternative to the BQ with the Liberals 3rd.

2.  Yes, your comment on I-R's leading question methodology reflects the type of criticism you can find in more detail in the above link I posted.  The author there has broken down how I-R asks pro-Con leading questions in order to get the desired answers.

bekayne wrote:

Putting the Ipsos results into the UBC Election Forecaster would result in:

Con - 199

BQ  -   51

Lib  -   38

NDP -   18

Putting the Ipsos results into the UBC Election Forecaster would result in:

Con - 199

BQ  -   51

Lib  -   38

NDP -   18

Linda Duncan, Hedy Fry, Libby Davies. Every other MP west of Ontario would be a Conservative.

http://esm.ubc.ca/CA11/forecast.php

FWIW Frank Graves at Ekos is tweeting that he will have numbers tomorrow and that they are very different from Ipsos. My take on Ekos is that their touch-tone push button methodology tends to overestimate the Green/Other vote and underestimate the NDP - but I think that his polls (give what large sample sizes they have) are pretty good on the Tory/Grit point spread. I'll be sitting on hot coals all night in anticipation!!

Stockholm wrote:

I know that the sample sizes are very small but what are the Ipsos numbers in Atlantic, Prairies and Alberta - i haven't seen them published anywhere.

- In Alberta, the Tories stand at 54 per cent support, while the Liberals have 23 per cent, the NDP have 17 per cent and the Green party has five per cent.

- In Saskatchewan/Manitoba, the Tories are ahead at 66 per cent, while the Liberals have 18 per cent and NDP has 13 per cent.

- In the Atlantic region, the Tories are at 41 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 28 per cent, the NDP at 20 per cent, and the Greens at 11 per cent

http://www.canada.com/news/Tories+begin+campaign+ahead+Liberals+poll+sho...

That's how ridiculous polling is in general.  I find it hard to believe the NDP is at 17 per cent in Alberta and the Cons only at 54 per cent.   If journalists can't use public domain polling responsibly - and they don't- then maybe it is time to ban them or something.  What I wouldn't give for an election without a poll every frikkin minute.

Life, the universe, everything wrote:

That's how ridiculous polling is in general.  I find it hard to believe the NDP is at 17 per cent in Alberta and the Cons only at 54 per cent.   If journalists can't use public domain polling responsibly - and they don't- then maybe it is time to ban them or something.  What I wouldn't give for an election without a poll every frikkin minute.

True.  Most of the poll is B.S.  And it has the NDP behind the Conservatives and the Liberals in every single region. 

And what is the likelihood of the Cons getting 50% in B.C., and 25% in Quebec?

Stockholm wrote:

FWIW Frank Graves at Ekos is tweeting that he will have numbers tomorrow and that they are very different from Ipsos.

Where did you read this?  Do you have a link to the Tweet?

Lens Solution wrote:

Where did you read this?  Do you have a link to the Tweet?

Here:

Quote:

From Voice of Franky - @davidakin we planned to come out one day later to test post budget properly. No plot - IPSOS wrong

Stockholm wrote:

Having the NDP at 17% in Alberta is actually not THAT extraordinary - they got 13% there in the last election so its not like its outside the realm of possibility.

In fact, Angus Reid had the NDP at 19% in Alberta in a poll released about a week ago.

Okay I stand corrected.   I still think the poll is suspicious and likley included some very leading questions.

Lots of ways to twist a poll but I can tell you it is easier to twist a poll than to get it right. Cheaper too!

The Cons do better in the smaller communities and with older people. It is also a fact that calling smaller communities is less expensive than more urban centres. Here is why: Pollsters start calling at 4pm or 5pm. They can dial till 9pm (9:30 in places).

Smaller centres people are home faster where as in big urban centres the commutes are longer. Seniors are already home. Dialing a small town at 5 pm and you may have people already coming home from work. Dialing the GTA and people are still coming home at 6:30 and then want nothing to do with a pollster because they want to make dinner. The major centres are loaded with households that do not speak the language. Retirees are easier to get on the phone than anyone else.

A cheap way to do a poll is to over sample rural areas, small communities and seniors. Of course that will also give you a Conservative bias. You just say well these are the people that vote and if you are right your cheap poll might even be better than a more representative one. The more you allow your sample to distort in to older small communities the cheaper and the more Conservative the poll will be.

That said leading questions are very common and I saw many of those when I worked in the field. We also put our greenest recruits on the political polls because more people answer those than calls about shampoo etc. Your best people go on the commercial brand polls not the political polls. Only the last poll before an election when you know you are going to be measured do you put the best people on. And if it is different -- easy just say it was a last minute shift and you never have to admit the rest of your polls were bogus. The only polls with accountability are the ones taken in the last week of an election.

Just came across a Segma Recherche poll for 2 Quebec ridings - Hull/Aylmer & Gatineau.  This poll has a 6 point margin of error, so caution should be exercised, but so far it doesn't look great for the NDP in Gatineau.  It looks like the BQ is well ahead there, and also that the BQ is giving the Liberals a close run in Hull/Aylmer:

Gatineau

BQ  37%

Lib  22%

Con 19%

NDP 15%

Hull/Aylmer

Lib 28%

BQ  27%

NDP 18%

Con 14%

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-droit/actualites/gatineau-outaouais/201103/...

Kinsella: "Ipsos has long been regarded as the gold standard in the Canadian polling industry."

Actually, Harris/Decima was the closest to the final result when analyzing their polling throughout the '08 campaign:

http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/polls-2008.html

And Nanos was the best in the prior two elections.

Kinsella's political "philosophy" is very simple - employ him and he loves you, don't employ him and he hates you. He loves Chretien because he worked for him. Paul Martin showed him the door so he hates him. Dion wanted nothing to do with him, so he hates him. Ignatieff put him in charge of the Liberal war room for a while and during that time, he was singing Iggy's praises, then he got dumped so now he shits on Ignatieff all the time. Kinsella's a Liberal and yet in the Toronto mayoralty election he spent his whole time firing bromides against George Smitherman - why? I assume because Kinsella offered his services to him and got rejected.

Its 100% personal pique with him. I actually e-mailed (politely) him once or twice to take issue with a few things he had written and got back a vicious string of invective. I think he is a totally TOXIC individual.

A hack whose only constancy is consuming rage towards those whom he believes have slighted him and parasitic flattery towards present and potentially future meal tickets is the most worthless of hacks.

Don't worry Warren, I'm sure Jack Layton's going to cave and support the budget.

Well, it wouldn't be a total surprise if the Cons have a 10 point lead since they have consistently been ahead for a while now, but hopefully we won't see the 19 point lead that we saw in Ipsos, (which was likely just pro-Con b.s. from that pollster as usual.)

Ekos last poll was 35-28-14 so I'd like to see 5 points or under preferably but yeah 8-10 isn't too bad as long as Harper is not near 40%.

I don't think Graves was saying that Ipsos poll was "wrong." I think Graves was saying that the accusation that EKOS was timing their announcement of their poll results for devious reasons is "wrong."

And he is "right.""