If there is an election, what are the likeliest possible dates for it?
May 2
And if not, probably May 9.
Anyone think the NDP would have the stones to stage a monster rally on May Day?
no
If a government feels like they're ahead of the other parties, they want a short election to provide as little time as possible for the other parties to catch up. If the government feels like they are behind another party, they want a longer election to give them a chance to get back into contention.
Judging by this, Harper will want the shortest election possible and will advise the GG to call the election for May 2nd.
May 9 as it gives the torys more time to spend on limitlesss ads.
During the election the Conservatives have to follow the same spending limits that all the other parties have to.
The five week election period is the only time we get in Canada where all the major parties are on equal footing. That's why the opposition still has a good shot at winning many more seats then the Conservatives.