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Federal political polling - started Saturday, March 26, 2011
Sat, 2011-03-26 15:34
#1
Federal political polling - started Saturday, March 26, 2011
Sat, 2011-03-26 14:47
#2
I think the "vote parking" fear would be reasonable if this was a phantom party like the Green party that has nothing but anonymous names on the ballot and no advertsising budget whatsoever etc...The NDP is in a much better position to hold on to their vote in Quebec because they will be spending MILLIONS of dollars on ads and organization there. They are apparently running active campaigns in over 40 ridings (in 2008 they had about half a dozen true active campaigns). Let's not forget that Quebecers "parked" their vote with the ADQ in the 2007 election and they stayed parked right to the end and the ADQ wound up with 40-odd seats and official opposition status (the fact that they frittered it away afterwards is another story)
"I fear a great deal of vote-parking. If this vote-parking is real, then we should see a major drop in the NDP's poll numbers once people realise that an actual federal election is on now and they have to make a serious choice. So if the NDP's poll numbers survive through the first 1-2 weeks of the campaign, then the party is probably safe, but if not NDPers are in for a big disappointment."
Sat, 2011-03-26 16:17
#3
There is a new Segma poll of the five Quebec City ridings which indicates that the Conservatives are losing two of their three seats to the Bloq.
Overall results: B 37, C 30, L 14, N 9, G 8.
This is quite a contrast with today's CROP poll which gives these numbers for the Quebec City "region" :
B 36, C 33, N 22, L 8 , G 1.
Sat, 2011-03-26 16:33
#4
Ominous number from Manitoba in Probe Research poll today.
http://probe-research.com/documents/110324A%20Federal%20Party%20Standings%20%28FINAL%29.pdf
C 51 L 26 N 18.
The regional breakdown suggests that the Liberals will hold Winnipeg North and the Conservatives threaten Elmwood and maybe Churchill
Sat, 2011-03-26 16:37
#5
It is very weird that this Segma company has NDP numbers sooo much lower than do the other companies. I have no explanation. I do know that they don't give the names of local candidates at all - which would be a factor in gatineau - but otherwise I don't know what to say. I am a bit sceptical of the 22% for the NDP in Quebec City given that the party has no presence there at all and is not targetting any seats at all. In all likehihood, the NDP in Quebec city will get something in between (ie: mid teens)
Sat, 2011-03-26 17:46
#6
Segma probably has the NDP too low, and CROP probably has the NDP too high.
Afterall, the CROP number for the Liberals in Quebec doesn't make sense either.
Sat, 2011-03-26 18:27
#7
I do not expect the high numbers for the NDP in Québec to become actual votes on election day. I imagine that they are from young voters who have a lot of sympathy for the NDP and Layton, as well as for the Bloc. Come election day, they probably will either stay home, unfortunately, or vote Bloc to ... block the Conservative.
On another note, there is something strange in the Léger Marketing poll. Check the leader preference for the anglophones and others in Québec: Ignatieff is nearly dead last. I don't believe that ever was the case for any Liberal leader. There might actually be a batle in Montréal this year!
Here's the poll, http://www.legermarketing.com/documents/POL/113261ENG.pdf
Sat, 2011-03-26 18:32
#8
I do not expect the high numbers for the NDP in Québec to become actual votes on election day. I imagine that they are from young voters who have a lot of sympathy for the NDP and Layton, as well as for the Bloc. Come election day, they probably will either stay home, unfortunately, or vote Bloc to ... block the Conservative.
You may be right to some extent - though "stopping the Conservatives" is only an issue in Quebec City. The NDP vote may be overestimated - but i sure prefer being at 20% and maybe seeing that erode to 16-17% than to be at 15% and see that erode back to the 12% of 2008.
Sat, 2011-03-26 18:56
#9
Although the NDP's anti-Conservative ads in Quebec last election were beautifully done (I think that company should have been hired to do all the party's ads), they were aimed at the wrong target. Attacking the Tories in Quebec merely drove people to vote Bloc as the perceived default "stop Harper" option. I'd like to see the NDP come out swinging at the Bloc in this campaign - if they don't I fear we will have a repeat of 2008.
Sat, 2011-03-26 19:05
#10
Apparently research has shown that attacking the Bloc head-on backfires on the NDP in Quebec. BQ supporters get very defensive. You have to triangulate - like the way to attract Liberal voters 9i.e. layton Liberals) is not to denounce the Liberals as being evil - but to say lament their ineffectiveness in standing up to harper etc...
Sat, 2011-03-26 19:14
#11
The regional breakdown suggests that the Liberals will hold Winnipeg North and the Conservatives threaten Elmwood and maybe Churchill
Forget about trying to extrapolate ANYTHING from a provincewide poll in a riding like Churchill. The riding is heavily First Nation and virtually unpollable
Sat, 2011-03-26 19:23
#12
I do not expect the high numbers for the NDP in Québec to become actual votes on election day. I imagine that they are from young voters who have a lot of sympathy for the NDP and Layton, as well as for the Bloc. Come election day, they probably will either stay home, unfortunately, or vote Bloc to ... block the Conservative.
On another note, there is something strange in the Léger Marketing poll. Check the leader preference for the anglophones and others in Québec: Ignatieff is nearly dead last. I don't believe that ever was the case for any Liberal leader. There might actually be a batle in Montréal this year!
Here's the poll, http://www.legermarketing.com/documents/POL/113261ENG.pdf
Thanks for the data. I love the numbers, 34 percent the cons which is definately not majority territory. 20 for liberals which is a new low for them. 17 for the ndp which isn't bad, but could be better, the bc and saskatoba numbers pulled them down abit.
My God is iggy unpopular. he is barely polling at over 50 percent for best PM amoung liberals.
Jack Layton is most trusted amoung anglo and allophone quebecers and second amound francaphones.
Only 3 percent think Jack can become PM so hopefully that will change. Of course the liberal number aren't much better but may decline as the election goes on.
I am not really sure what kind of issue will draw voters in Saskatoba does anyone else?
Sat, 2011-03-26 19:23
#13
I hope Stockholm is right but the Probe poll shows that in the six seats outside Winnipeg the Cons are up from 58 to 66% and the NDP down from 19 to 14%
Sat, 2011-03-26 19:25
#14
Frankly, for the NDP in Québec, I'd target the West Island: Ignatieff is toxic even to the anglophones. Set yourself as the new federal left-wing party.
Also, many left-wing sovereignists see the Bloc and NDP as mostly interchangeable, and several even are NDP candidates. By attacking the Bloc, the NDP would be attacking itself.
Sat, 2011-03-26 19:27
#15
I hope Stockholm is right but the Probe poll shows that in the six seats outside Winnipeg the Cons are up from 58 to 66% and the NDP down from 19 to 14%
FWIW there was a byelection in Dauphin-Swan River in rural MB back in November - the NDP vote went way up from 16% to 26% while the Tory vote dropped. - so go figure.
Sat, 2011-03-26 20:08
#16
I hope Stockholm is right but the Probe poll shows that in the six seats outside Winnipeg the Cons are up from 58 to 66% and the NDP down from 19 to 14%
FWIW there was a byelection in Dauphin-Swan River in rural MB back in November - the NDP vote went way up from 16% to 26% while the Tory vote dropped. - so go figure.
Maybe that indicates that things are really fluid in manitoba right now, after all what could the ndp have done to piss off the voters?
Sat, 2011-03-26 21:45
#17
Maybe that indicates that things are really fluid in manitoba right now, after all what could the ndp have done to piss off the voters?
Mainly people feel it's time for a change. The NDP has been governing Manitoba for 12 years now.
Sat, 2011-03-26 21:47
#18
I hope Stockholm is right but the Probe poll shows that in the six seats outside Winnipeg the Cons are up from 58 to 66% and the NDP down from 19 to 14%
It just means that the Conservatives blow out the competition in ridings like Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette, Brandon Souris, and Selkirk-Interlake by winning over 60% of the votes in those ridings as opposed to the usual 50-55%, to say nothing of the Bible Belt seats containing the cities of Morden, Winkler, and Steinbach which always rack up massive Conservative majorities regardless of whatever else is happening.
Sat, 2011-03-26 22:14
#19
Maybe that indicates that things are really fluid in manitoba right now, after all what could the ndp have done to piss off the voters?
With the spring thaw coming, things will be REALLY fluid in Manitoba in a couple of weeks!
Sat, 2011-03-26 22:28
#20
With the spring thaw coming, things will be REALLY fluid in Manitoba in a couple of weeks!
Yeah, having to vote during a flood is a huge point of contention in this province.
Sat, 2011-03-26 23:23
#21
Much has been made about the BC polling numbers, but we have to remember that the NDP has a leadership campaign, and unlike the other parties, is not capable of investing all its resources federally. Once the dust settles there, you can bet that the NDP will be going full barrell to have a strong federal campaign.
Sun, 2011-03-27 01:01
#22
The provincial leadership campaign in BC can also be a plus. It draws attention to the party and I notice that all the leadership candidates seem eager to campaign for the federal party to show their mettle etc...
Sun, 2011-03-27 01:14
#23
With the spring thaw coming, things will be REALLY fluid in Manitoba in a couple of weeks!Yeah, having to vote during a flood is a huge point of contention in this province.
You may be right. They've been doing t.v. interviews in Manitoba, and some of the people there seem a bit upset about the prospect of the federal election. They showed footage of them on CBC fighting the flood.
Sun, 2011-03-27 01:17
#24
Maybe that indicates that things are really fluid in manitoba right now, after all what could the ndp have done to piss off the voters?Mainly people feel it's time for a change. The NDP has been governing Manitoba for 12 years now.
That doesn't explain why the federal NDP would drop - the provincial party even in a bad year would never get less than 35% of the vote
Sun, 2011-03-27 01:18
#25
knownothing
I live in Saskatchewan and the only way to get voters attention out here is healthcare. NDP stands for it always has always will. Thats what most people are worried about. Hammer them on it!
Sun, 2011-03-27 01:44
#26
That doesn't explain why the federal NDP would drop - the provincial party even in a bad year would never get less than 35% of the voteMaybe that indicates that things are really fluid in manitoba right now, after all what could the ndp have done to piss off the voters?Mainly people feel it's time for a change. The NDP has been governing Manitoba for 12 years now.
You don't remember how bad 1988 was for the NDP? Only in 1999, 11 years later, did they ever crack the 35% mark.
The way it works in Manitoba is that voters are divided into 2 broad groups: left, and right. The right is represented at both levels by the Conservatives. Provincially the left is represented by the NDP, federally it is divided between the NDP and Liberals, which goes a long way to explaining why the federal NDP has never really cracked 25% in Manitoba for a long time, much less the 35% which you claim is a floor for the NDP provincially. With the provincial NDP on the outs with the public, that would give the Conservatives a boost, while notice both the Liberal and NDP numbers are lower. Plus, given the "anybody-but-Harper" push that always comes with a federal election, people are going to vote strategically for the Liberals. Not that strategic voting is going to have much impact in the non-Churchill rural ridings, given that the Conservatives generally take each one with 55+% of the vote anyways.
The other crazy thing is that provincially, the rural areas of Brandon, Dauphin, Swan River, Selkirk, and the Interlake are all represented by the NDP but the Conservatives dominate each riding federally.
*Edited for clarity, see post below*
Sun, 2011-03-27 01:58
#27
That doesn't explain why the federal NDP would drop - the provincial party even in a bad year would never get less than 35% of the voteMaybe that indicates that things are really fluid in manitoba right now, after all what could the ndp have done to piss off the voters?Mainly people feel it's time for a change. The NDP has been governing Manitoba for 12 years now.You don't remember how bad 1988 was for the NDP? Only in 1999, 11 years later, did they ever crack the 35% mark.
The way it works in Manitoba is that voters are divided into 2 broad groups: left, and right. The right is represented at both levels by the Conservatives. Provincially the left is represented by the NDP, federally it is divided between the NDP and Liberals, which goes a long way to explaining why the federal NDP has never really cracked 25% in Manitoba for a long time, much less the 35% which you claim is a floor for the NDP provincially. With the provincial NDP on the outs with the public, that would give the Conservatives a boost, while notice both the Liberal and NDP numbers are lower. Plus, given the "anybody-but-Harper" push that always comes with a federal election, people are going to vote strategically for the Liberals. Not that strategic voting is going to have much impact in the non-Churchill rural ridings, given that the Conservatives generally take each one with 55+% of the vote anyways.
The other crazy thing is that provincially, the rural areas of Brandon, Dauphin, Swan River, Selkirk, and the Interlake are all represented by the NDP but the Conservatives dominate each riding federally.
*Edited for clarity, see post below*
The Conservative I would most like to see defeated in Manitoba is Vic Toewes. Why don't the voters of his riding vote him out? As an LGBT person I will never forget the ranting and raving he did in 2005 against gay marriage. He was one of its most vociferous opponents. He went on and on about how it would threaten the sanctity of marriage for months. And then not long after he cheats on his wife and has a child with his new girlfriend. A total family values hypocrite, just like the Republican politicians in the U.S.
Sun, 2011-03-27 01:59
#28
The way it works in Manitoba is that voters are divided into 2 broad groups: left, and right. The right is represented at both levels by the Conservatives. Provincially it is represented by the NDP, federally it is divided between the NDP and Liberals, which goes a long way to explaining why the federal NDP has never really cracked 25% in Manitoba for a long time, much less the 35% which you claim is a floor for the NDP provincially. With the provincial NDP on the outs with the public, that would give the Conservatives a boost, while notice both the Liberal and NDP numbers are lower. Plus, given the "anybody-but-Harper" push that always comes with a federal election, people are going to vote strategically for the Liberals. Not that strategic voting is going to have much impact in the non-Churchill rural ridings, given that the Conservatives generally take each one with 55+% of the vote anyways.
The other crazy thing is that provincially, the rural areas of Brandon, Dauphin, Swan River, Selkirk, and the Interlake are all represented by the NDP but the Conservatives dominate each riding federally.
If we don't get rid of FPTP soon, the federal NDP and Liberals will have to merge to create a situation similar to the ones in BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. It's no accident that these are the only provinces where the NDP has continuity in contending for power provincially.
Sun, 2011-03-27 02:05
#29
The Conservative I would most like to see defeated in Manitoba is Vic Toewes. Why don't the voters of his riding vote him out?
Vic Toews represents a seat in Manitoba's Bible Belt.
Sun, 2011-03-27 02:36
#30
The Conservative I would most like to see defeated in Manitoba is Vic Toewes. Why don't the voters of his riding vote him out?
Toews wins with almost 2/3rds of the vote but vote splitting makes it very difficult for any other party to come close to challenging him.
If the opposition can take power away from the Conservatives after the election, it'll be in the interests of both the NDP and Liberals to change the electoral system to a system that suits a multi-party system. Something like PR/Fair Voting or, at the very least, the Alternative Vote.
Sun, 2011-03-27 09:51
#31
scott
I expect that most attention will swing around to the federal campaign - it is the bigger fish. Nevertheless the provincial leadership vote will not be until April 17, which only leaves 2 weeks clear until the federal vote.
Sun, 2011-03-27 21:31
#32
The way it works in Manitoba is that voters are divided into 2 broad groups: left, and right. The right is represented at both levels by the Conservatives. Provincially it is represented by the NDP, federally it is divided between the NDP and Liberals, which goes a long way to explaining why the federal NDP has never really cracked 25% in Manitoba for a long time, much less the 35% which you claim is a floor for the NDP provincially. With the provincial NDP on the outs with the public, that would give the Conservatives a boost, while notice both the Liberal and NDP numbers are lower. Plus, given the "anybody-but-Harper" push that always comes with a federal election, people are going to vote strategically for the Liberals. Not that strategic voting is going to have much impact in the non-Churchill rural ridings, given that the Conservatives generally take each one with 55+% of the vote anyways.
The other crazy thing is that provincially, the rural areas of Brandon, Dauphin, Swan River, Selkirk, and the Interlake are all represented by the NDP but the Conservatives dominate each riding federally.
If we don't get rid of FPTP soon, the federal NDP and Liberals will have to merge to create a situation similar to the ones in BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. It's no accident that these are the only provinces where the NDP has continuity in contending for power provincially.
the ndp didn't merge with liberal party in these provences. They destroyed them. That is the only solution as the liberals right wing would stop any attempt at merger. You are not the first to suggest such a merger. I remember one former Liberal PM talked about it with a former NDP leader although I don't remember which just that the liberal pm was on his death bed and he said the if the ndp liberals had merged they could have achieved so much more, that his government could have been so much more progressive with the ndp inside it and the ndper replied that the liberals were far too right and that the only way they could have merger was if the liberals had moved to the left. Missed opportunities maybe and what could have beens. The liberals became too corrurpt, arrogent, and selfish, the core and nobler elements having rotted away for it now. I remember reading this story when I was a kid and I don't remember what book it was. Still chokes me up abit, especially since I honestly believe they had mutual respect for each other. The PM would have jumped at a coalition I think. When was the last time the Liberals had a leader one could respect? not counting Dion who I believe Jack did respect even if he did disagreed with him.
Sun, 2011-03-27 21:31
#33
The way it works in Manitoba is that voters are divided into 2 broad groups: left, and right. The right is represented at both levels by the Conservatives. Provincially it is represented by the NDP, federally it is divided between the NDP and Liberals, which goes a long way to explaining why the federal NDP has never really cracked 25% in Manitoba for a long time, much less the 35% which you claim is a floor for the NDP provincially. With the provincial NDP on the outs with the public, that would give the Conservatives a boost, while notice both the Liberal and NDP numbers are lower. Plus, given the "anybody-but-Harper" push that always comes with a federal election, people are going to vote strategically for the Liberals. Not that strategic voting is going to have much impact in the non-Churchill rural ridings, given that the Conservatives generally take each one with 55+% of the vote anyways.
The other crazy thing is that provincially, the rural areas of Brandon, Dauphin, Swan River, Selkirk, and the Interlake are all represented by the NDP but the Conservatives dominate each riding federally.
If we don't get rid of FPTP soon, the federal NDP and Liberals will have to merge to create a situation similar to the ones in BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. It's no accident that these are the only provinces where the NDP has continuity in contending for power provincially.
the ndp didn't merge with liberal party in these provences. They destroyed them. That is the only solution as the liberals right wing would stop any attempt at merger. You are not the first to suggest such a merger. I remember one former Liberal PM talked about it with a former NDP leader although I don't remember which just that the liberal pm was on his death bed and he said the if the ndp liberals had merged they could have achieved so much more, that his government could have been so much more progressive with the ndp inside it and the ndper replied that the liberals were far too right and that the only way they could have merger was if the liberals had moved to the left. Missed opportunities maybe and what could have beens. The liberals became too corrurpt, arrogent, and selfish, the core and nobler elements having rotted away for it now. I remember reading this story when I was a kid and I don't remember what book it was. Still chokes me up abit, especially since I honestly believe they had mutual respect for each other. The PM would have jumped at a coalition I think. When was the last time the Liberals had a leader one could respect? not counting Dion who I believe Jack did respect even if he did disagreed with him.
Sun, 2011-03-27 21:42
#34
Arthur Cramer
I am 53 and heard this NDP should merge with the Libs to stop the Tories stuff over and over.
What anyone who says that really means is the NDP should stop being the NDP, and just become Libs. Sorry, I truly don't think that real New Dems and Libs have ANYTHING in common. How anyone who could think after watching Libs running from the left and governing from the front could be trusted to ever behave differently is completely beyond me. Here is an idea, if you really a progressively minded, leftist, quit the Libs, join the NDP, and bring anyone who thinks the same way with you.
Nope, no merger. EVER!
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
Sun, 2011-03-27 21:44
#35
Arthur Cramer
@Lens Solution:
Vic Toews runs in probably one of the safest Tory seats in Canada. It is a riding of rural rednecks, bible thumpers, and narrow minded, resentful bigots who think they are the only ones with a handle on the truth.
Move along please, nothing to see here.
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
Sun, 2011-03-27 21:48
#36
Arthur Cramer
@Lens Solution:
One other thing, I am very sorry that you feel so badly because Vic Toews is a bigot. That is his problem; not yours. I totatlly agree and understand you sentiments. All I can say is that in the long run, he and people who think like him will eventually pass on, as will their ideas.
Time is on youu side; chin up my friend!
All the best.
Arthur Cramer, Winnpeg
Sun, 2011-03-27 22:05
#37
I am 53 and heard this NDP should merge with the Libs to stop the Tories stuff over and over.
Nope, no merger. EVER!
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
I agree 100% with you Arthur.
No merger with the Liberals under any circumstance.
Sun, 2011-03-27 22:11
#38
The Liberals aren't so much asking for a merger as for NDPers to jump onto a sinking ship. Why weren't we hearing these calls for mergers in the '90s?
Sun, 2011-03-27 23:00
#39
Arthur Cramer
@aristotleded24:
The answer is easy, they didn't need us to get the government then. They are so pathetic! The real shame is people might be ready to fall for it again. I mean here in my riding, we have that little weasel Lamoureux. Everyone thinks he's a man of the people. He'd vote to cut the budget without thinking about if the Libs told him to. I hate that guy. He reperesents everything that the Libs are and the New Dem's aren't. Little weasel; not that I have an opinion or anything, lol.
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg.
Sun, 2011-03-27 23:14
#40
I am 53 and heard this NDP should merge with the Libs to stop the Tories stuff over and over.
Do you strongly support electoral reform?
Sun, 2011-03-27 23:26
#41
yiyu75
gfhpfog
Sun, 2011-03-27 23:26
#42
I mean here in my riding, we have that little weasel Lamoureux. Everyone thinks he's a man of the people. He'd vote to cut the budget without thinking about if the Libs told him to.
When community police stations were being closed in Winnipeg, wasn't he blaming the provincial government while it was his Liberal buddy on council Gord Steeves who has consistently advocated against community policing in Winnipeg?
Mon, 2011-03-28 00:31
#43
Interesting poll by Leger on the whole coalition issue:
http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/CanadaVotes/News/2011/03/28/17776691....
""The coalition does not really shake the electorate when it comes to who they support," Christian Bourque of Leger Marketing said. "If the election were held today, it would have limited effect.
"But over 35 days, would it wear down a leader? It would probably be Ignatieff that would be hurt on his leadership."
Bourque says Ignatieff's challenge when it comes to issues of leadership were evident when his firm asked who would make the best leader of a coalition government involving Liberals, NDP and the Bloc Quebecois.
Canadians narrowly picked NDP Leader Jack Layton at 27% over Ignatieff at 24%. Bourque said a significant number of those who identified themselves as Liberals were among those who preferred Layton to lead a coalition."
Mon, 2011-03-28 01:05
#44
Arthur Cramer
@JKR:
Yes, I unreservedly support reform that allows for porportional representation, even if it hurts the NDP.
@Aristotleded24:
Yes, Steeves was an advocated for cutting funding for community policing. So the Libs were hypocrites, who would be surprised by that, lol!
By the way Lamureux wants longer sentances, and more people in prison. Of course, he also wants funding for reform programs, Typical, talks from both sides of his mouth; the man has been doing it for years.
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg.
Mon, 2011-03-28 01:19
#45
@Lens Solution:
Vic Toews runs in probably one of the safest Tory seats in Canada. It is a riding of rural rednecks, bible thumpers, and narrow minded, resentful bigots who think they are the only ones with a handle on the truth.
Move along please, nothing to see here.
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
Don't they realize how hypocritical Toews turned out to be on the issue of family values?
Mon, 2011-03-28 01:47
#46
@JKR:
Yes, I unreservedly support reform that allows for porportional representation, even if it hurts the NDP.
And I unreservedly support the NDP and Liberals remaining separate parties.
I just feel that if we keep FPTP there likely will be a merger or an agreement for the NDP and Liberals to not run in some or all of the other parties ridings. Looking at what's happened historically within Canada and other countries that use FPTP internationally, party's realign when vote splitting starts hurting their electoral prospects under FPTP. I don't see why things would be different in Canada at the federal level now. Under the current configuration, the only way the Liberals or NDP can wrest power from the Conservatives is if they cooperate with each other in Parliament. If that happens for an election cycle or two, the pressure will be very strong for a NDP-Liberal merger. Like it or not, in a myriad of ways FPTP always pressures the establishment of 2-candidate races. Over our history, that constant pressure has destroyed many a party in Canada. This fear of and lust for the destruction of parties because of FPTP makes our politics very mean spirited. I think one of the reasons Harper is so mean spirited and has a take-no prisoners style is because he saw his beloved libertarian Reform Party destroyed by FPTP.
I'm pretty sure that the NDP and Liberals will install some kind of electoral reform because it is now in both their interests. The reason I mention the word "merger" is that I think it is good for people to know what could easily happen if we don't get rid of FPTP within the next decade or so.
Mon, 2011-03-28 01:57
#47
@ JKR:
1) The Liberals will never agree not to run candidates against the NDP.
2) PR is not in the interests in the Liberal party, becuase the Liberals want to win an outright majority of seats. PR makes that less likely to happen, so it is a non-starter for them. True, the Liberals are not in a position to win a majority any time soon, but there is a culture within the Liberal party that they are entitled to power and are too blind to see that.
3) If there was a merger between the Liberals and the NDP, a good chunk of right-wing Liberals and left-wing New Democrats would bolt, thus leaving the new merged party with the same amount of support the Liberals routinely enjoy, in the best of circumstances.
Mon, 2011-03-28 02:26
#48
By the way Lamureux wants longer sentances, and more people in prison. Of course, he also wants funding for reform programs, Typical, talks from both sides of his mouth; the man has been doing it for years.
I'd be shocked if Rebecca Blaikie doesn't win the election in a cake walk. The voter turnout will be much higher then the bi-election and that alone should insure that she wins. Also, the NDP are not going to be complacent this time around.
I lived in North Winnipeg as a child during the 70's and still have family there, so I visit every few years. As an outsider, I'd have to say Winnipeg and Manitoba are not nearly as progressive as you would think it would be considering that the NDP has been in power there. All in all, I don't see that the Manitoba government has been more progressive then let's say Ontario or Quebec. I think FPTP has turned the Manitoba NDP into a party similar to the Ontario Liberal Party. I don't think the Doer/Selinger legacy is much different from the McGuinty legacy. In any case, I don't think either McGuinty or Selinger will be premier of their provinces by this time next year.
I think the main reason we're having an election now is that Harper wanted to have an election before McGuinty was replaced with an eventually unpopular Hudak. In a way Harper is running as much against McGuinty as he is against Ignatieff. Ignatieff's job in the election is to differentiate himself in the mind of Ontarians from both Harper and McGuinty. If it wasn't for the Rae years (and Rae Days), the NDP would likely be doing much better in Ontario, provincially and federally.
A Hudak premiership will likely be bad for Ontario, but it'd be good for the electoral prospects of the federal NDP and federal Liberals. If the Conservatives can be held to a minority now, I see their prospects being worse once Hudak takes over. Then again maybe Horwath will surprise everyone and win. Unfortunately, after Bob Rae's surprise victory, I don't see another NDP shocker in the cards.
Mon, 2011-03-28 02:46
#49
1) The Liberals will never agree not to run candidates against the NDP.
That's what they said in India before parties started making agreements with each other to not run in each others ridings once they felt that was their only way to beat the Indian National Congress. And it worked. That's how the Indian National Congress's stranglehold on power ended.
If the NDP and Liberals find themselves cooperating within minority governments the Conservatives will be able to run against them colllectively. At that point vote splitting would likely hurt the NDP and Liberals even more then now necessitating some kind of change. In all likelihood they would change the electoral system.
2) PR is not in the interests in the Liberal party, because the Liberals want to win an outright majority of seats. PR makes that less likely to happen, so it is a non-starter for them. True, the Liberals are not in a position to win a majority any time soon, but there is a culture within the Liberal party that they are entitled to power and are too blind to see that.
What happens if after an election or two, the Liberals see that it is very difficult to win majority governments, and that the Conservatives have a huge advantage due to vote splitting? Will they just shrug and let the Conservatives keep their huge built-in advantage?
3) If there was a merger between the Liberals and the NDP, a good chunk of right-wing Liberals and left-wing New Democrats would bolt, thus leaving the new merged party with the same amount of support the Liberals routinely enjoy, in the best of circumstances.
Why wouldn't most of the "centre-left" vote and participate within the same party as they do in Manitoba, BC, and Saskatchewan? If people like Broadbent, Chretien, Layton, Libby Davies, Dryden, and, McGuinty supported the new party, why wouldn't others follow?
Mon, 2011-03-28 08:48
#50
A new phone poll of 2,000 out today says:
Cons - 41%
Libs - 24%
NDP - 19%
http://www.canada.com/news/Tory+support+stays+high+ethics+falling+flat+P...
Its nice to see the 19% we have seen for the NDP in a string of online polls confirmed in a phone poll. If present trends continue, we may yet be looking at Il Sorpasso (ie: when the NDP overtakes the Liberals)
Mon, 2011-03-28 09:31
#51
. . . as well as a Conservative majority.