Go!
Issues Pages:
The 2011 Election prediction contest
Fri, 2011-03-25 22:34
#1
The 2011 Election prediction contest
Fri, 2011-03-25 22:12
#2
Please don't flame me for my pessimism.
Fri, 2011-03-25 22:27
#3
What pessimism?
You have May winning. 
Fri, 2011-03-25 22:31
#4
Who's going to win as an independent, WCG?
Fri, 2011-03-25 22:35
#5
In principle, with totals you arent predicting any particular seats. But with Andre as a Cons candidate now, how many if any serious independent contnders are out there?
Fri, 2011-03-25 22:36
#6
Guergis?
Fri, 2011-03-25 22:47
#7
I guess I'll stick by what I had in the other thread:
Con : 126
Lib : 87
Bloc : 54
NDP : 41
But honestly, my gut tells me that the Cons could end up even lower than this. Everyone keeps expecting a Liberal collapse and I understand why. The Liberals are a joke who can't seem to understand how to campaign in their new circumstances. I just don't think it's going to matter much. They've been pathetic for a while now and people keep voting for them, mostly just because they're not the Conservatives, and that hasn't changed.
What has changed is the reason people vote Conservative. They can't be the reactionary anti-government, anti-Liberal choice anymore. They've been incumbant too long, and their cracks are showing up in spectacular fashion. People aren't going to want to hear about what the Liberals did anymore. They want to hear the government of Canada make some accounting of itself and its failings, and as this campaign wears on, it's going to become obvious that they have nothing to offer on this score, just a list of complaints about the opposition. They've already done nothing but whine about this election, and while their support numbers are holding, their trust and leadership numbers are falling. They look petulant, arrogant and obsessed with their own entitlement, just like the Liberals did before their own collapse. Once people really start paying attention, they could be in a lot of trouble.
They're not likely to go below 30% in even the worst of circumstances, but going that low is a definite possibility, which would put them below where I've got them above, and well below Libs+NDP, which is the scenario we all want.
Fri, 2011-03-25 22:50
#8
In principle, with totals you arent predicting any particular seats. But with Andre as a Cons candidate now, how many if any serious independent contnders are out there?
I thought I read that Andre Arthur was sticking with being an Indy?
Fri, 2011-03-25 22:58
#9
Okay my prediction is this, while I can't honestly tell you the exact seat count I believe it'll be cons first ndp second liberals third Bloc a close fouth. It end up as a coalition because if iggy doesn't agree he will suffer his own coup de ta.
Fri, 2011-03-25 23:10
#10
Are there are Canadian sites that are aggregating poll data?
Are there any active seat forecaster sites?
ETA: Just realized this isn't really the thread for the question, I'll ask it on the Federal Political polling thread.
Fri, 2011-03-25 23:28
#11
Okay my prediction is this, while I can't honestly tell you the exact seat count I believe it'll be cons first ndp second liberals third Bloc a close fouth. It end up as a coalition because if iggy doesn't agree he will suffer his own coup de ta.
Wouldn't Iggy be toast if the Liberals finished third anyway?
Fri, 2011-03-25 23:41
#12
It's waaaay too early to start making predictions - not like that's going to stop me! ;) As things stand today, I'd predict something like
CPC 140 / LIB 81 / BQ 54 / NDP 33
In other words, not much different from what we have now.
Sat, 2011-03-26 00:03
#13
NDP 150 / Green 133 / BQ 23 / Other 2
Sat, 2011-03-26 00:34
#14
Would either of the others be a Liberal?
...OR a Tory?
Sat, 2011-03-26 02:13
#15
Malcolm
Would either of the others be a Liberal?
...OR a Tory?
C'est la meme chose.
Sat, 2011-03-26 11:39
#16
Cons 147
Libs 74
Bloc 50
NDP 35
Others 2
Sun, 2011-03-27 12:22
#17
Cons 130
Libs 85
Bloc 50
NDP 43
The election compass on the CBC is totally crap(University of Toronto) For one they have the libs pretty far on the left of the spectrum. I also answered(even according to the survey) nearly identical to the ndp on 90% of questions but recommended voting green. So I shift around some of the tabs as to weither it should be important or not important-boom more green. Expect the enviro one. It makes me a bloc voter WTF...Further more it doesn't have the NDP positions right in some instances.
It says the NDP doesn't believe in childcare one way or the other and the greens strongly support it. Also on euthanasia it says the NDP holds no position. I also don't know how it CAN calculate the NDP position on the Long Gun Registry.
Sun, 2011-03-27 13:20
#18
NDP 152 / Green 133 / BQ 23
The election compass on the CBC is totally crap(University of Toronto) For one they have the libs pretty far on the left of the spectrum. I also answered(even according to the survey) nearly identical to the ndp on 90% of questions but recommended voting green. So I shift around some of the tabs as to weither it should be important or not important-boom more green. Expect the enviro one. It makes me a bloc voter WTF...Further more it doesn't have the NDP positions right in some instances.
It says the NDP doesn't believe in childcare one way or the other and the greens strongly support it. Also on euthanasia it says the NDP holds no position. I also don't know how it CAN calculate the NDP position on the Long Gun Registry.
I agree with you about the CBC's Vote Compass. I got the same skewed results as you. And you are right about the Liberal party. I think that the neo-Liberal party is nearly identical to the neo-Conservative party on the spectrum.
Sun, 2011-03-27 20:39
#19
My current thinking is a Liberal crash leaving mile wide, inch deep support, coupled with Harper's unchecked lies and a general, underinformed consensus building that a Conservative majority wouldn't be such a scary thing after all. So:
CON: 166 / BQ: 61 / NDP: 46 / LIB: 34 / IND: 1
Shocks me, too, but I think we could be heading there.
Sun, 2011-03-27 21:28
#20
WCG ......... // 156 Conservatives, 68 Liberals, 51 Bloquistes, 31 New Democrats, 1 Green, 1 Ind
Jacob 2 2 ... // 126 Conservatives, 87 Liberals, 54 Bloquistes, 41 New Democrats
Ghoris ....... // 140 Conservatives, 81 Liberals, 54 Bloquistes, 33 New Democrats
JOSH.......... // 147 Conservatives, 74 Liberals, 50 Bloquistes, 35 New Democrats, 2 Others
Thorin Bane // 130 Conservatives, 85 Liberals, 50 Bloquistes, 43 New Democrats
Mmorphis .. // 152 New Democrats, 133 Greens, 23 Bloquistes
Jeff Wells ... // 166 Conservatives, 61 Bloquistes, 46 New Democrats, 34 Liberals, 1 Independent
Sun, 2011-03-27 22:31
#21
Somehow, it remains difficult for me, in this day and age, to imagine the Bloc soaring into 60-seat territory...
Sun, 2011-03-27 22:44
#22
Somehow, it remains difficult for me, in this day and age, to imagine the Bloc soaring into 60-seat territory...
The largest seat count the Bloc ever had was 54 seats. That was in 1993, when constitutional failures were at the front of people's minds throughout the country, and soveriegnty in particular was a hot topic, as evidenced by the election of the PQ in 1994 and the referendum in 1995.
Sun, 2011-03-27 22:52
#23
Somehow, it remains difficult for me, in this day and age, to imagine the Bloc soaring into 60-seat territory...The largest seat count the Bloc ever had was 54 seats. That was in 1993, when constitutional failures were at the front of people's minds throughout the country, and soveriegnty in particular was a hot topic, as evidenced by the election of the PQ in 1994 and the referendum in 1995.
At the time, however, there was only the Bloc and the Liberals in Québec. In this election, the federalist vote is split into 3 parties, with the main one limping.
Well... let's say 2 and a half, since many sovereignists vote and run for the NDP.
Sun, 2011-03-27 23:40
#24
Just a gut feeling, but I'm getting a sense that this election is going to provide even more outrageous arguments than usual for proportional representation.
Mon, 2011-03-28 00:39
#25
I win this one easily...
Bourgeois politicians (in various political parties know as either, the Conservatives , the Liberals, the NDP, the Bloc or the Greens) -100% (of all seats that make up the bourgeois Parliament of Canada).
Working class politicians - 0% (of seats).
Mon, 2011-03-28 01:12
#26
Just a gut feeling, but I'm getting a sense that this election is going to provide even more outrageous arguments than usual for proportional representation.
This election has been a classic example of how FPTP perverts almost every major decision made by the politicians and parties. The election was called because Harper thinks he has a chance to win a majority so he refused to cooperate with the other parties. Ignatieff had to swear-off the idea of a coalition out of the real fear of giving Harper a fake FPTP majority. FPTP has also determined that the parties and politicians must ignore 200 seats and concentrate on just 5 dozen "swing" ridings. The usual strategic voting drive we have because of FPTP will probably be starting up soon but amazingly a "don't vote" drive has started because FPTP has made the parties platforms indistinguashable for many people. The list goes of how FPTP is perverting this election goes on and on.
But there is an alternative - PR/Fair Voting.
In Germany they had 2 state elections today using PR/Fair Voting. The results in Baden-Württemberg were:
Christian Democrats: 39% of the vote; 43% of the seats; 60 seats out of 138 seats.
Greens: 24% of the vote; 26% of the seats; 36 seats.
Social Democrat: 23% of the vote; 25% of the seats; 35 seats.
Free Democrat: 5% of the vote; 5% of the seats; 7 seats.
These results look very similar to recent polls in Canada that put the Conservatives well ahead with 39% of the vote. If they used FPTP in Germany the right-wing Christian Democrats would have won a fake majority with 39% of the vote because of vote splitting. But using PR/Fair Voting, the Greens and Social Democrats will form a coalition government.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel Suffers Historic Defeat
The opposition anti-nuclear Greens doubled their voter share in Baden-Wuerttemberg state and seemed poised to win their first-ever state governorship, according to calculations based on partial results published by public broadcaster ARD.
"We have secured what amounts to an historic electoral victory," the Greens' leader Winfried Kretschmann told party members in Stuttgart.
If they were stipid enough to have FPTP in Germany, that headline would have read: Merkel's Party Wins Yet Another Majority Government In German State Election
Mon, 2011-03-28 20:06
#27
The greens in europe are real leftiest unlike in Canada, under may, so this is a real victory for the left. The German greens got more seats then the SD so does this mean the first world leader to be green is a Chancellor of Germany?
Mon, 2011-03-28 20:11
#28
The greens in europe are real leftiest unlike in Canada, under may, so this is a real victory for the left. The German greens got more seats then the SD so does this mean the first world leader to be green is a Chancellor of Germany?
oops just realized that this was the equivlent to a provencial election. Still would have been neat.
Mon, 2011-03-28 20:46
#29
I'm not sure what you are asking. But the Governor of a German state will be a Green for the first time. Mind you, it is unlike the Chancellor of the national government [and unlike a Canadian Premeir or US Governor], much more literally just the leader of a government with relatively limited powers... with some both practical and symbolic input to national decision making.
Mon, 2011-03-28 20:53
#30
Useless waste of space party-line politicians who don't really care about the individuals of Canada - 306
Independants - 2
People of Canada - 0
Mon, 2011-03-28 20:57
#31
Con 170
BQ 61
NDP 41
Lib 36
Mon, 2011-03-28 21:01
#32
I'm not sure what you are asking. But the Governor of a German state will be a Green for the first time. Mind you, it is unlike the Chancellor of the national government [and unlike a Canadian Premeir or US Governor], much more literally just the leader of a government with relatively limited powers... with some both practical and symbolic input to national decision making.
That is disappointing. Still hopefully the national elections in Germany go as well. Do you know when that will be?
Mon, 2011-03-28 21:09
#33
Havent been following enough to know the scoop on that. At least a couple years before elections are required. Both Merkel and her FDP rump partners I would think will avoid an election as long as possible.
Mon, 2011-03-28 21:14
#34
I'm not sure what you are asking. But the Governor of a German state will be a Green for the first time. Mind you, it is unlike the Chancellor of the national government [and unlike a Canadian Premeir or US Governor], much more literally just the leader of a government with relatively limited powers... with some both practical and symbolic input to national decision making.
Just because he is a Green, doesn't mean it is right to minimize his accomplishment and his party's accomplishment.
The Green leaders name is Winfried Kretschmann.
He will likely be the The Ministerpräsident of the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg.
Using Canadian terms, he will fill the position of "premier" of Baden-Wurttemberg.
The term Ministerpräsident can be translated as "Minister-President."
Since the Minister-President has a position within Germany's Bundesrat, Germany's national senate, it could be argued that a Minister-President has more power then a Canadian premier.
Minister-President - Wikipedia
The Ministerpräsident is the head of government of a German state; the office roughly corresponds to the governor of a U.S. State and more closely to the premier of an Australian state or Canadian province; (strictly speaking the governor of a U.S. state is the chief executive under a presidential system whereas the Ministerpräsident of a German state as well as the premier of an Australian state or Canadian province is the head of government under a parliamentary system). Since the German language reflects the gender of nouns, the feminine form Ministerpräsidentin may be used to refer to female office-holders.
The title is commonly translated as "prime minister"[1] or "(State) Premier"; whereas "minister-president"[2][3] or less often "minister president" is used in official business in order not to confuse the incumbent with a head of government of a nation-state.
The constitutional position of a minister-president is comparable to the one of chancellor at the federal level, except that there is no formal head of state at the state level, a function usually shared between the minister-president and the president of the Landtag (state parliament).[citation needed]
Ministers-president of the German states are elected by their respective state parliaments and appoint ministers in their respective states (in six states the appointment of ministers is also subject to parliamentary approval), and determine policy guidelines.[4] Along with several of their ministers, they commonly represent their state in the Bundesrat (the German Federal Council) or abroad. By virtue of their position in the Bundesrat, they can exert considerable influence within the federal structure.
Mon, 2011-03-28 21:27
#35
Havent been following enough to know the scoop on that. At least a couple years before elections are required. Both Merkel and her FDP rump partners I would think will avoid an election as long as possible.
Unlike here in Canada, German Chancellors can't dictate when an election is called to suit their petty partisan interests like our Prime Ministers do here in Canada.
This seems to be another aspect of western European democracy that's way ahead of Canada's antiquated system.
Next German federal election - wikipedia
The date of the next German federal election is governed by the constitution, the Basic Law, and the Federal Election Law (Bundeswahlgesetz).
Article 39 of the Basic Law states that the Bundestag shall be elected between 46 and 48 months after the beginning of the legislative period. As the 17th Bundestag convened on October 27, 2009, the next election will be scheduled between August 27 and October 27, 2013. As the Federal Election Law states that the election day must be a Sunday or public holiday, the dates of September 1, 8, 15, 22, 29, October 3 (Day of German Unity), 6, 13, 20 or 27 would be within the scope of constitution and law.
Usually, to avoid school holidays, a date in late September is chosen; this would make September 22 or 29, 2013, a rather probable date.
The Basic Law provides for three possibilities to shorten or prolong the legislative period, and therefore move election day, which have in the past been used rarely or never, respectively.
In case of an imminent or ongoing attack on Germany the Federal President is to declare the Case of Defence (article 115a of the Basic Law). In this case, the legislative period ends six months after the end of the Case of Defence (article 115h).
The more probable cases of shortening the legislative period are provided for in articles 63 and 68 of the Basic Law. The former states that the Federal President may (or may not) dissolve the Bundestag if during a vacancy in the office of Federal Chancellor the Bundestag fails to elect a new Chancellor with a majority of votes within fourteen days after the Federal President proposing a new Chancellor. The latter article allows the Federal Chancellor to ask the Federal President to dissolve the Bundestag after the Chancellor has lost a vote of confidence in the Bundestag. The President is once again free to choose whether to dissolve the Bundestag or not.
Of these three possibilities of changing the legislative period of a Bundestag, only the dissolution according to article 68 has been used in practice (1972, 1983 and 2005).
In case of a dissolution the snap election must take place within sixty days. During the Case of Defence the dissolution of the Bundestag is not possible.
Mon, 2011-03-28 21:55
#36
It is because of the Bundesrat that I said the Governor would have some "with some both practical and symbolic input to national decision making."
But in the complexities of the German system that is highly mediated leverage on the national state, to say the least. So unless you make a fetish of formalism, it is not arguable that the governor of a German state has more powers.
And I dont care what Wikipedia says, the Premeir of a Canadian province or of an Australian state has significantly more actual power than what I understand is wielded by the governor of a German state. I am open to arguments otherwise.
Mon, 2011-03-28 22:13
#37
I still haven't been able to get on to the Election Predictions website. I've tried it through both Firefox and Internet Explorer. Did the site get taken down for some reason?
Mon, 2011-03-28 22:13
#38
Stories I have seen have made more of a deal that this is the first time the CDU has lost in the South than they have that this is the first time a Green will be governor of a state.
Its not like there have not already been very high profile Greens in government. I was not belittling what they did. My friends in B-W are very pleased, and i share that with them.
Tue, 2011-03-29 00:51
#39
Greens SPD, CDU, XYZ, ABC it's all the same. The working class of Germany has been sold out by all of these parties since before the Nazis.
Tue, 2011-03-29 01:06
#40
Back to regularly scheduled programming....
Tue, 2011-03-29 02:50
#41
Greens SPD, CDU, XYZ, ABC it's all the same. The working class of Germany has been sold out by all of these parties since before the Nazis.
In the Thirties, Germany was ALSO sold out by the KPD, when it refused to join an anti-Hitler electoral alliance just because Stalin wouldn't let them. The only ones there who could really claim purity were Willy Brandt's SAP and, before him, Luxemburg and Liebknecht and the pre-Russified KPD.
Tue, 2011-03-29 03:34
#42
Interested Observer
The German greens got more seats then the SD so does this mean the first world leader to be green is a Chancellor of Germany?
No, the first Green Head of State was Indulis Emsis who was Prime Minister of Latvia in 2004. Albeit, as somewhat conservative which isn't really that surprising given that Winfried Kretschmann is also conservative relatively speaking and that you might expect conservative leaders of a new party to fare better at first.
EDIT: As for the Predictions lets say: CON 137 LIB 82 BLOQ 48 NDP 40 GRN 1
Tue, 2011-03-29 18:29
#43
The only group that was working for the Germany working class was Trotsky and his gang. He wrote an open letter to the Communist Party of Germany before Hitler took over.
He told that to beet the nazis asap because if the Nazis took charge there would not be enough passports to get out and that the nazis will crush their skulls with tanks or something like that .
Well history played out just like the guy predicted.
Tue, 2011-03-29 18:45
#44
another prediction of mine.
Since the Bloc will never run the government nor the Greens, that leaves the NDP, Liberals and the Conservatives.
Since the Conservative voters will never vote for anything other then Conservatives and since they are kinda fanatical about their world views they will come out and support their leader.
Most Liberal supporters don't really care for Harvard Mike, and will mostly not be voting for Conservatives, so they will stay at home.
The NDP will garner about the same as they always do, in the mid teens.
So it will either be a Conservative majority or a Conservative minority. Or the off chance of a Liberal minority. Either way, since history has shown that the NDP insists on working with what ever party is governing just so they can get a few crumbs, expect the NDP to continue with this trend.
So what can you expect from this election? Austerity measures up the ass from all levels of government with the federal government in the lead.
Tue, 2011-03-29 18:52
#45
Oh. as for a coalition, forget about it. Last time they tried that the Liberal crowed Harvard Mike.
You see the fight for Liberal leadership was between Bob Raedays and Harvard Mike. If Mr Raedays would have become the leader than the coalition would have went forward. He was a former NDPer after all and still had many connections to the party.
Were Harvard Mike had none and thus quickly ended that pipe dream. As the wishes if the Canadian ruling elite dictated.
Tue, 2011-03-29 22:59
#46
I disagree about Tory and Liberal supporter. First there are Tory voters that have voted NDP and could do so again. Also the NDP is the second choice of Liberals, Greens, and Bloc. Stevie is not invulnerable. Time will tell.
Tue, 2011-03-29 23:54
#47
Then again, Trotsky himself also bears a significant responsibility for the betrayal of the original character of the Revolution in Russia, since the Red Army suppression of the Krondstadt Uprising that Trotsky played a significant role in did as much as anything else to create the conditions that made Stalinism inevitable in the USSR. Had Krondstadt's revolutionaries been allowed to survive(with their insistence on defending the autonomous power of the Soviets), there would at least have been the chance of stopping Stalin later. Once they were crushed, all hope of preventing a police state in the USSR died. There was no longer any possible chance of resisting the forces of cynicism, corruption and brutality in the highest ranks of the party.
So, in then end, even Trotmaster Levvie B. isn't pure enough.
Wed, 2011-03-30 11:47
#48
Look the NDP is never going to win a federal bourgeois election. Not until they denounce Socialism 100%.
and that .0001% of Tory voters that vote NDP is useless.
Personally there are people out there that hate Harper and they will vote Liberal, NDP or Green. But does the hatred run so deep that they will come out in droves?
Wed, 2011-03-30 12:54
#49
The NDP will garner about the same as they always do, in the mid teens.
Go and study some previous election results. The NDP has been higher or lower than the mid-teens in many elections (and outside of the teens in each direction).
Wed, 2011-03-30 13:18
#50
Look the NDP is never going to win a federal bourgeois election. Not until they denounce Socialism 100%.
and that .0001% of Tory voters that vote NDP is useless.
Personally there are people out there that hate Harper and they will vote Liberal, NDP or Green. But does the hatred run so deep that they will come out in droves?
what is your figure 0.0001 based on? Making up figures to justify you cynical bitterness does nothing to help anyone lest of all yourself. Look I used to be that way, hell sometimes I relaspe, yet I have learned to not became to emotional invested in outcomes, just do my best, win or lose.
Wed, 2011-03-30 22:28
#51
I'm wondering about the possibility of the NDP breaking the 20% ceiling while falling in seat totals--presumably due to "wasted vote" in places like Quebec, etc...