Conservatives 156
Liberals 71
BQ 49
NDP 32
IND 1
Ignatieff resigns as leader, Trudeau & Leblanc declare their intention to seek the Liberal leadership. Layton and Duceppe stay on as party leaders.
Conservatives 156
Liberals 71
BQ 49
NDP 32
IND 1
Ignatieff resigns as leader, Trudeau & Leblanc declare their intention to seek the Liberal leadership. Layton and Duceppe stay on as party leaders.
@anonymous:
Any thoughts on Winnipeg North?
Unfortunately the NDP's poll numbers are very poor in Manitoba. They are being punished by the voters for the unpopularity of the Manitoba NDP. What's more the big "sin" of the Manitoba NDP isn't any policy issue, it's the leader. When you have a Manitoba NDP that campaigns on its leader and asks people to vote for the leader, then you have to give the people a say when you change the leader (because people go, "I didn't vote for this guy [Premier Sellinger]). The fact that the Manitoba NDP doesn't/didn't have a good reason not to go to the polls after Sellinger was picked and now Sellinger has been governing (for a long time) without a mandate.
I think the best move for NDP candidates if they want to avoid being struck down by the poor provincial numbers is to act a bit like mavericks. Show that they are independent thinkers, and try to differentiate themselves from the establishment that the voters are eager to dress down. As such, Rebecca Blaikie should be trying to be rile people up, be more militant, get her supporters to come out and vote, and paint Lamoureux, rather than herself, as the establishment. One easy way tp do this is drawing attention to the generational gap. How long has Lamoureux been in politics? how long has he been playing the same game, peddling the same wares? how long has he been making promises and how well has he kept them? how much better off are the people of Winnipeg North 23 years after they elected him? Lamoureux was 26 years old when people elected him. He's done almost nothing other than politics in his life and what does he/the riding have to show for it?
@anonymous:
I couldn't agree with you more. That is bang on analysis. I completely agree with you.
We are sorry, but the spam filter on this site decided that your submission could be spam. Please fill in the CAPTCHA below to get your submission accepted. This is getting SO OLD! Rabble, fix this!!!!
Unfortunately the NDP's poll numbers are very poor in Manitoba. They are being punished by the voters for the unpopularity of the Manitoba NDP. What's more the big "sin" of the Manitoba NDP isn't any policy issue, it's the leader. When you have a Manitoba NDP that campaigns on its leader and asks people to vote for the leader, then you have to give the people a say when you change the leader (because people go, "I didn't vote for this guy [Premier Sellinger]). The fact that the Manitoba NDP doesn't/didn't have a good reason not to go to the polls after Sellinger was picked and now Sellinger has been governing (for a long time) without a mandate.
I think there are 2 other factors here:
1) Sellinger was built up by the chattering classes in the media as the "heir apparent," especially after Swan bowed out. Kind of in the same way they built up Paul Martin before he crashed and burned as PM. Sellinger is no doubt a very intelligent guy, but his intelligence doesn't translate into the political instincts that make politicians connect well with everyday people.
2) The leadership race itself was problematic. First there was the decision to move away from one-member-one-vote, which was contentious when the NDP snuck it in. The Manitoba PC party has a more democratic and transparent method of chosing its leaders than the NDP does. The other thing is the controversey around some of Ashton's delegates (along with Ashton's allegations of an old guard that wanted to keep new Canadians out). I'm sure that has left a bad taste in the mouth of a few party members. Additionally, people feel very disenfranchised with their political institutions, and things like this confrim it. Who is going to end up taking the fall? The party currently in government.
CON 135
LIB 99
BQ 54
NDP 20
The reason I've got the NDP at 20 seats is because I think a lot of Ontario voters who voted NDP in 2008 will vote Liberal in a bid to stop the Coonservatives. 20 seats is definitely a lower number than what I would like the NDP to get, but it's a result that I think is likely.
Cons 145
Libs 70
Bloc 53
NDP 40
Lib minority. NDP 25 - 30 seats. No pickups on the prairies, no losses on the prairies. Get hammered in Ontario.
Ignatieff eventually PM of Lib majority government, following next election after Lib minority falls over budget.; it'll be over tax cuts for corporations again.
Yes I am serious, and no, I am not on drugs.
Yes I am serious, and no, I am not on drugs.
(bolding mine)
Thank you for that qualifier.
I wasn't going to change my numbers after the Writ dropped, but so many things have happened since, including Ignatieff doing much better than I expected, and the Cons taking quite a bit of heat over scandals and contempt, and we've had the two debates (where Harper did quite badly), and Layton probably picking a couple of seats up in Quebec that counters his losses in Ontario, so here goes:
Post Debates predictions: April 14/11
Cons 140
Libs 90
BQ 45
NDP 33
Pre-Writ predictions: March 23/11
Cons 150
Libs 55
NDP 54
BQ 49
you know, this is the only space where we can get great news for the NDP, via polls and MSM, and rabblers go into depression mode! So I haven't given any prediction but I think the NDP is going to get 55 seats, and drug free
Tories 134 seats
Grits 72 seats
NDP 50 seats
Bloc 51 seats
Green 1 seat
I think that NDP might cause a surprise an win 2-3 extra seats in Quebec and a few more in BC.
NDP 172 / Green 120 / BQ 16
Conservative 128
Liberal 88
NDP 45
Bloc 47
Conservative 145
Liberal 73
NDP 50
Bloc 40
NDP 172 / Green 120 / BQ 16
Boom Boom I could live with that
______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!NDP 172 / Green 120 / BQ 16
Some election prediction sites:
Nanos Poll 3 Days Ending April 14 2011
Conservative
38.7%
-0.2
Liberal
28.8%
-2.3
NDP
18.6%
+0.3
BQ
9.0%
+1.5
Green
3.7%
+0.6
This vote swapping could be a huge thing for the greens. Is it possible Betsy May could beat Tory Mp Lunn? I might have to change my prediction to add one or two greens.
Conservative 142
Liberal 73
NDP 50
Bloc 43
you know, this is the only space where we can get great news for the NDP, via polls and MSM, and rabblers go into depression mode! So I haven't given any prediction but I think the NDP is going to get 55 seats, and drug free
+1
It is probably that many dippers have been burnt before and are afraid to feel hopeful. They don't want to be hurt again. Still I'm very excited about how this compaign is going. One thing polls won't show is that the lack of popularity of Iggy may have on voter turn out when it comes to the liberals vs the voter turn out for the very popular Jack Layton. People will go to greater effort for someone like then they will for someone they tolerate.
Hopefully the NDP will whip out some good new advertizing to take advantage of this.
I agree with what you say Gyor. I believe Canadians have a general respect & positive regard for Jack. Furthermore, when I see this guy who is giving his all with a bloody cane and running a "clean campaign" whereas both the HarperCons and IggyLibs are doing dirt on one another, well people just get to the point where they want the real thing - that's what Jack is. So people will go the extra mile knowing that he's standing his ground and making gains.
And everyday people know that if you don't show up to work, you don't get a promotion, much less have a job. They get that on the ground and why it resonates with the public. It's just the truth. Only those with money get promotions when they don't show up and few relate to that!
Jack rocks!
I generally prefer predicting ranges but...
Conservative - 156
Liberal - 75
Bloc - 49
NDP - 27
Ind - 1 (Guergis, not May)
Late prediction time, going out on a limb:
NPD helps wipe Cons out of Quebec.
I don't care what the polls say. As a collective, Quebecers are the shrewdest voters in Canada, and I mean that in a good way.
Updated predictions:
CPC - 152
Liberal - 65
NDP - 52
BQ - 38
GRN - 1
I of course reserve my right to change my mind again before election day. ;)
NDP 127
CON 121
LIB 40
BQ 20
THE ORANGE WAVE IS COMING!!!
My predictions:
Conservatives - 129
New Democrats - 76
Liberals - 68
Bloc Quebecois - 35
Stay tuned!
My predictions:
New Democrats - 138
Conservatives - 100
Liberals - 55
Bloc Quebecois - 35
I think David Young's prediction is probably closest. I'll offer a slight variation:
Conservatives - 135
New Democrats - 75
Liberals - 68
Bloc - 30
The polls are all over the place, but everyone is in agreement that the NDP are surging, so here's my latest - despite my longstanding not wanting to make changes after the Writ dropped. I didn't see the NDP surge coming, so I'll use that as my excuse.
Conservative 130
Liberal 70
NDP 69
BQ 38
Ind 1
GPC 0
This prediction makes Parliament probably unworkable, and the Liberals and NDP would have to think long and hard what they want to do in such a scenario. If the Conservatives do indeed re-introduce Flaherty's last Budget, then it appears a showdown is inevitable, and it comes down to who blinks first.
shot in the dark but here goes:
129 Conservative
80 New Democrat
58 Liberal
39 Bloc
2 Independant
1 Green
NDP 142
Con 95
Liberal 40
Bloc 29
Ind 2
The person who most accurately predicts the electoral outcome - what's the prize for this person?
If my prediction is correct, I won't need any other prize.
The differences in numbers between April 16 and April 26 remind me of Steve-the-economist's foresight in recognizing the onset of the Great Recession even as the tsunami curled around his ears a couple of weeks before the last election.
Now if only Jack can demonstrate an ability to walk on water...grow jobs, pay down the debt, give aid and hope to seniors, end Canada's pariah position among the world's environmentalists and satisfy his suddenly-quiet critics. Fortunately, he hasn't had to pay any attention to them so far, situated as they are, way up in the bleachers.
David Young's numbers seem sound. Hope it turns out that I was pessimistic there.
With the sudden "surge" of the NDP, I must update my prediction...
NDP 207 / Green 99 / BQ 2
NDP 958(all the seats in your House of Commons plus all the ones in the UK too, just because).
Rhinocerous party as Official Opposition by default(by default of who, I won't say...).
Seriously, though...here's my official prediction
308 people will be elected. Everyone else won't be.
Elizabeth May will be either one or the other.
And you can QUOTE me on that!
Will they elect Gilles Duceppe as speaker just to cheer him up?With the sudden "surge" of the NDP, I must update my prediction...
NDP 207 / Green 99 / BQ 2
Seriously, though...here's my official prediction
308 people will be elected. Everyone else won't be.
I wouldn't guarantee that. If a candidate dies btw/now and e-day, that'd mean 307 elected, and the remaining seat waits for a by-election. Just being technical...
I can't put together a seat projection that makes sense, so I'll just say, instead, that May 3rd Jack Layton will be Prime Minister, without the need to form a coalition.
Here is how I see things going down, province by province:
Newfoundland and Labrador
Liberal: 4 (-2)
NDP: 2 (+1)
Conservative: 1 (+1)
Prince Edward Island
Conservative: 2 (+1)
NDP: 1 (+1)
Liberal: 1 (-2)
Nova Scotia
NDP: 5 (+3)
Liberal: 4 (-1)
Conservative: 2 (-2)
New Brunswick
Conservative: 5 (-1)
Liberal: 3
NDP: 2 (+1)
Quebec
NDP: 43 (+42)
Bloc Quebecois: 19 (-29)
Liberal: 8 (-6)
Conservative: 5 (-6)
Ontario
Conservative: 56 (+5)
NDP: 25 (+8 )
Liberal: 24 (-13)
Independent: 1
Manitoba
Conservative: 7 (-2)
NDP: 5 (+2)
Liberal: 2
Saskatchewan
Conservative: 8 (-5)
NDP: 5 (+5)
Liberal: 1
Alberta
Conservative: 23 (-4)
NDP: 4 (+4)
Independent: 1 (+1)
British Colombia
NDP: 17 (+8 )
Conservative: 16 (-6)
LIberal: 2 (-3)
Green: 1 (+1)
Yukon
Liberal
Northwest Territories
NDP
Nunavut
Conservative
Resulting in:
Conservative: 125 seats (-18 )
NDP: 110 (+74)
Liberal: 52 (-25)
Bloc Quebecois: 19 (-29)
Green: 1 (+1)
Plus 2 Independent Members of Parliament
The person who most accurately predicts the electoral outcome - what's the prize for this person?
Mackenzie King's ouija board.
Ari, under the NDP in Alberta, I think you mean +3, not +4.
What seat are you thinking of in PEI?
Before the orange crush occured I thought the NDP might have won 70 seats. But things are vastly different now.
There isn't one seat projector that is up-to-date - see http://www.punditsguide.com
NDP - 126 seats
Cons - 125 seats
Libs - 39 seats
Bloc - 17 seats
Ind - 1 seat
Tory 148
NDP 86
Liberal 48
Bloc 25
Ind 1
I think the odds are more likely that I have the NDP too high, but I remain to be pleasantly surprised.
@Ari:
How did you do last time around? By the way, where does the extra New Dem seat in MB come from. I really hope that you are right?
@Malcom:
Are you nervous at all about Iggy having a surge in the GTA? What do you think Nanos will show tommorow (I hate Nanos; I think there is something about how he gets his numbers). And, what do you thing Graves will show?
Boy, this thing is chewing me up. I really hope Beckie Blakie comes through. I am absolutely she will; I think she will win by somewhere 1000 and 3000 votes. What about you on this Ari? How close do you think I am?
Love reading your comments guys. Malcom, you really have helped me level out; I was bouncing all over the place earlier.
I have a fair bit of respect for DemocraticSpace.com and Greg, so I would go with his call, except for the belief the NDP is riding a wave and Liberals will get eaten away a bit more by the Conservatives. My call:
Conservatives 153
NDP 81
Liberals 50
BQ 24
Other 1
and with something that close to a Harper majority, it will be hard, if not impossible, for a coalition government to replace him. However this will be a fundamental shift in the party system in Canada
With those numbers, peter, you could measure the number of Liberal floor crossers by the scorch marks on the carpet.