Continued from here.
Issues Pages:
Federal Polling April 8th
Sat, 2011-04-09 22:29
#1
Federal Polling April 8th
Fri, 2011-04-08 06:29
#2
Environics Poll, March 30 - April 5
Canada
P / 08 GE / Apr 5 / Change
C - 38% / 38% / No Change
L - 26% / 25% / Down 1%
N - 18% / 20% / Up 2%
B - 10% / 8% / Down 2%
Ontario
P / 08 GE / Apr 5 / Change
C - 39% / 42% / Up 3%
L - 34% / 29% / Down 5%
N - 18% / 21% / Up 3%
Quebec
P / 08 GE / Apr 5 / Change
B - 38% / 34% / Down 4%
N - 12% / 21% / Up 9%
L - 24% / 18% / Down 6%
C - 22% / 17% / Down 5%
'The most significant shift since the last election is in Quebec.'
http://www.environic...il%207-2011.pdf
Fri, 2011-04-08 07:09
#3
With all the polls confirming the NDP second in Quebec, it's hard to deny the party's crossed a major threshold. Even the reluctant media, Toronto Star excepted, are needing to pay attention. It makes the "wasted vote" argument in the province suddenly vanish overnight, and dampens it everywhere else. It may not have peaked yet, either. These numbers may inspire greater movement from Bloc and Liberal voters who have been Bloc and Liberal voters by default, and had not had enough reason before to switch. Well, they're seeing enough reason now.
Fri, 2011-04-08 07:29
#4
New Nanos
Con 40.6 +1,0
Lib 31.1 +0.7
NDP 14.9 -2.3
BQ 8.7 +0.4
GRN 3.4 +0.2
Fri, 2011-04-08 07:39
#5
New Ekos
http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/08/conservatives-liberals-neck-and-neck-in-ontario/
Con 36.0
Lib 28.2
NDP 16.1
GRN 8.8
Fri, 2011-04-08 08:32
#6
The polls are kind of all over the place. Well, I'm happy as long as there's no Harper majority (which is still possible, but looking more and more unlikely).
Fri, 2011-04-08 08:49
#7
Sadly, Harper not getting a majority does not mean we dont get more Harper government.
The only difference of Harper getting a majority instead of "just" continuing to govern, is 4 years instead of 2 and a half. That does not warrant people talking about preventing a Harper majority as if it is some kind of partial victory.
Fri, 2011-04-08 08:56
#8
Arthur Cramer
Why does anyone pay attention at all to Nanos? They are full of it. I simply don't believe them, and generally, my feel is the NDP is coming on.
Fri, 2011-04-08 09:19
#9
The polls are showing themselves to be even more useless than normal by being so contradictory with each other. If there was any real journalism left in Canada's media they would stop covering them all together. Sadly we will instead get breathless headline, after breathless headline, even though the one the day before may have been the exact opposite of the one they are using that day. The media outlets have shown they just can't be trusted to use this information source responsibly.
Fri, 2011-04-08 09:56
#10
Sadly, Harper not getting a majority does not mean we dont get more Harper government.
The only difference of Harper getting a majority instead of "just" continuing to govern, is 4 years instead of 2 and a half. That does not warrant people talking about preventing a Harper majority as if it is some kind of partial victory.
I have to disagree. I don't think we can even imagine how many bullets we have dodged over the last 5 years because of the Conservatives NOT having a majority. There are all kinds of things they have not dared to do because they are too controversial and would clearly be voted down by the opposition. If you look at all the "ethical issues" like the detainee controversy, the contempt of parliament etc... none of these issues would have even seen the light of day unless the opposition had a majority on all commons committees and was able to pass various motions etc...If there was a conservative majority - even that relatively small degree of control would be lost since the Tories would have a majority on every committee and would turn all those committees into rubber stamps. On top of that Harper has blatantly said that if he gets a majority he'll instantly end all public funding of political parties - which would mean the Liberals, the BQ AND the NDP would essentially be bankrupted and unable to seriously compete in any future election.
I also think that Harper is right about one thing - we will have either a Conservative majority or an opposition arrangement of some sort. I still believe that if the Conservatives get anything less than a majority - Ignateiff will become PM. The level of hatred, fear and mistrust of Harper on the part of all the opposition parties would make them all do ANYTHING to dislodge him post-election.
Fri, 2011-04-08 10:53
#11
Actually here are the results and the link for the new EKOS poll out today
C - 36.2%
L - 27.7%
N - 16.6%
G - 8.5%
B - 8.3%
O - 2.8%
BALLOT QUESTION CLARIFYING, OUTCOME NOT
http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_april_8_2011x.pdf
----------------------------------------
New Ekos
http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/08/conservatives-liberals-neck-and-neck-in-ontario/
Con 36.0
Lib 28.2
NDP 16.1
GRN 8.8
Fri, 2011-04-08 11:02
#12
alan smithee
Well,on the streets of my riding,all election posters are for the Bloc,Liberal and NDP candidates..There are NO Conservative posters.
My guess is that the Tories have given up on this riding...Or they figure they are such a shoe in that they don't feel a need to advertise.
It's probably going to be another fight between the Bloc and Libs,although the NDP are FAR more visible than in past elections.
I'd be excited with the one poll that shows the NDP up by 6% in Quebec but the polls all smell a little inaccurate with Nanos having the Reform Party hovering around the 40% mark and Ekos scoring them at 36%.
Clearly someone is fibbing.
Fri, 2011-04-08 11:21
#13
Every poll seems to show the NDP falling back in Ontario and in the doldrums on the prairies. I buy this in the prairies because the NDP has been moribund in Saskatchewan for a long time (Jack has spent little time there so far) and the Manitoba NDP is quite unpopular. Also, in Ontario, this is the heart of the "vote squeeze" between the Liberals and Conservatives. The Liberals enjoy a natural advantage in Ontario, just as the NDP is supposed to be a party of the West, the Liberals are the party of Ontario. This is Liberal die hard country and voters run from the NDP to the Liberals all the time here.
In Québec, almost every poll shows the NDP surging. In BC and Atlantic Canada the picture is very cloudy. Some polls have the NDP surging, others in third place.
If the NDP vote drops in Ontario, but it manages to hold all its seats, and the Liberal + NDP vote is high enough to defeat Conservative MPs in BC, then we could be looking at a Liberal minority with an NDP balance of power. BUT, this is not the most likely outcome at this time as a lot of polls indicate that the Liberals still have ground to make up on the Tories. The NDP may also blast back in Ontario and other parts of the country. This week is the debates and there are still three hard weeks of campaigning yet to go.
I agree with Stockholm. We will not even recognise this Conservative government if they win a majority. Unfortunately Harper is a nasty, ideological man. He also thinks he is some kind of great Conservative genius and that people on the right will look up to him one day in admiration. As it is, lots of people kiss his ass already because he is/was prime minister.
Fri, 2011-04-08 11:45
#14
Actually here are the results and the link for the new EKOS poll out today
C - 36.2%
L - 27.7%
N - 16.6%
G - 8.5%
B - 8.3%
O - 2.8%
BALLOT QUESTION CLARIFYING, OUTCOME NOT
http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_april_8_2011x.pdf
----------------------------------------
New Ekos
http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/08/conservatives-liberals-neck-and-neck-in-ontario/
Con 36.0
Lib 28.2
NDP 16.1
GRN 8.8
It appears one is from Apr 4-6 & the other from Apr 4-7
Fri, 2011-04-08 12:06
#15
I don't think we can even imagine how many bullets we have dodged over the last 5 years because of the Conservatives NOT having a majority. There are all kinds of things they have not dared to do because they are too controversial and would clearly be voted down by the opposition. If you look at all the "ethical issues" like the detainee controversy, the contempt of parliament etc... none of these issues would have even seen the light of day unless the opposition had a majority on all commons committees and was able to pass various motions etc...If there was a conservative majority - even that relatively small degree of control would be lost since the Tories would have a majority on every committee and would turn all those committees into rubber stamps.
The committee thing has been mentioned before. 3 or 4 years ago I would agree this mattered. And it did have some bearing on the optics in the run-up to the election. But barely. Harper Crew has been progressively learning how to simply end run even the optics of all the 'niceties' of parliamentary democracy. They are worth less and less all the time, and I'm ready now to agree that their existence and the hope they can become useful has moved into the distraction category. That may not be entirely true, but it still means that Harper getting a majority is just a little bit worse. Stopping them from that is NOT keeping the barbarians on the other side of the gate.
On top of that Harper has blatantly said that if he gets a majority he'll instantly end all public funding of political parties - which would mean the Liberals, the BQ AND the NDP would essentially be bankrupted and unable to seriously compete in any future election.
The NDP and the Bloc would not be anything like bankrupted, and even the Liberals will survive. It wouldn't be pretty, but this is hardly decisive stuff. Again, red fangs may be better than lulling yourself into thinking that you are keeping the beast at bay.
Certainly, Harper not getting a majority makes an alternative government possible. But 'keeping Harper from a majority' is more than a distraction.
Fri, 2011-04-08 12:19
#16
The main benefit of the Conservatives not having a majority is that the opposition could force an election if they made any big mistakes . As such, the opposition was a check on the Conservatives' own ambition. With a majority, they will do whatever they want, so long as they still have a good stretch of time in their mandate. The first thing they want to do is gut the public service in a very ideological way (e.g. no environment, no social programs, no foreign aid/independent foreign policy), then they are going to keep cutting taxes to the wealthy and removing regulatory organisations that are opposed by business, lastly they are going to go after social policy and education to try and make the country more "conservative." That is their goal. They will probably also leave the country in deficit so that if they lose power the next party will be under pressure to cut the public sector as well. They don't believe there is a role for the government in society other than providing security (police, military) and the very minimum of social benefits. That is what they stand for.
Fri, 2011-04-08 12:46
#17
I agree 100%. The fact that in a minority situation the opposition always has the power to force an election if the government goes seriously off the deep end - is HUGE. If the Tories knew they had 5 years to do absolutely anything they wanted - they would do all the things they have been dying to do for the past five years but wefre afraid to do such as repealing the canada Health Act, mass layoffs in the federal civil service, invoking the notwithstanding clause of the constitution anytime they feel like it.
Fri, 2011-04-08 13:48
#18
The main benefit of the Conservatives not having a majority is that the opposition could force an election if they made any big mistakes .
I agree 100%. The fact that in a minority situation the opposition always has the power to force an election if the government goes seriously off the deep end - is HUGE.
Right, like this threat has meant so much in the last two and a half years.
As such, the opposition was a check on the Conservatives' own ambition. With a majority, they will do whatever they want, so long as they still have a good stretch of time in their mandate. The first thing they want to do is gut the public service in a very ideological way (e.g. no environment, no social programs, no foreign aid/independent foreign policy), then they are going to keep cutting taxes to the wealthy and removing regulatory organisations that are opposed by business, lastly they are going to go after social policy and education to try and make the country more "conservative." That is their goal. They will probably also leave the country in deficit so that if they lose power the next party will be under pressure to cut the public sector as well. They don't believe there is a role for the government in society other than providing security (police, military) and the very minimum of social benefits. That is what they stand for.
If the Tories knew they had 5 years to do absolutely anything they wanted - they would do all the things they have been dying to do for the past five years but wefre afraid to do such as repealing the Canada Health Act, mass layoffs in the federal civil service, invoking the notwithstanding clause of the constitution anytime they feel like it.
There is no question the Cons would LIKE to do all this stuff. But it can't be done in 4 or 5 years. Getting it done requires STAYING in government.
And in case you haven't noticed, they are doing it as we speak. They've been in government over 5 years, and they are getting their agenda done, without a majority.
Doing things like repealing the Canada Health Act was part of the master plan before they came to government- and they also assumed they would need a majority to do it.
But they've learned. You can change the 'facts on the ground' decisively without overt things like repealing the Canada Health Act. They've been doing it, and all they need is to stay in power to continue doing it.
How long they continue in power is what matters, not whether or not they have a majority.
Fri, 2011-04-08 13:55
#19
knownothing
The media is cutting Jack and the NDP out of all access. The two party race is in full swing even though polls in Quebec and BC show the NDP to be highly competitive. Although I think a Conservative majority may be the worst thing to ever happen to this country it might be what we need to wake up the public to our political system.
Fri, 2011-04-08 14:05
#20
I guess this should not be posted here as it came from the National Post
NDP the option on the Left Coast
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/04/08/john-ivison-ndp-the-optio...
Fri, 2011-04-08 14:20
#21
I don't feel the NDP is coming on much at this point because there is so little coverage of substance getting through to most voters.
Those who are decided remain where they were and those who are not are not watching yet. The major exception is Quebec.
There is no cause to worry, however. The eligible vote I think runs something like this: 30% decided with maybe half of those paying attention. 40% will not vote and at most 20% who are undecided and will decide after the debates... I would not expect much of anything till then.
My suspicion is that Layton will win the debate in English-- in terms of votes in the rest of Canada he is the only one who is likable (although in Quebec he has competition and that could be a campaign making debate in French).
Fri, 2011-04-08 14:26
#22
To win the debates the NDP has to win the spin, so hopefully the talking points are already written, and will be distributed lickety-split. 
Fri, 2011-04-08 14:27
#23
I think that is true for Ontario only. Things seem to be different outside the naval gazing of the GTA and a few other places in the province. Of course the Liberals can always depend on the Toronto Star to print their propoganda and I am sure that helps.
Fri, 2011-04-08 15:18
#24
I think that is true for Ontario only. Things seem to be different outside the naval gazing of the GTA and a few other places in the province. Of course the Liberals can always depend on the Toronto Star to print their propoganda and I am sure that helps.
Didn't seem to help Smitherman in the most recent election.
Fri, 2011-04-08 16:11
#25
Fri, 2011-04-08 16:26
#26
The main benefit of the Conservatives not having a majority is that the opposition could force an election if they made any big mistakes . As such, the opposition was a check on the Conservatives' own ambition. With a majority, they will do whatever they want, so long as they still have a good stretch of time in their mandate. The first thing they want to do is gut the public service in a very ideological way (e.g. no environment, no social programs, no foreign aid/independent foreign policy), then they are going to keep cutting taxes to the wealthy and removing regulatory organisations that are opposed by business, lastly they are going to go after social policy and education to try and make the country more "conservative." That is their goal. They will probably also leave the country in deficit so that if they lose power the next party will be under pressure to cut the public sector as well. They don't believe there is a role for the government in society other than providing security (police, military) and the very minimum of social benefits. That is what they stand for.
Great analysis.
KenS, they have been pushing their agenda with a minority, but not as quickly as they would like. If they had been pushing their agenda forcefully then I would hope that the NDP would've been pushing more to remove him.
I think if the Liberals get a minority (probably with 2nd most seats) and there is NO coalition, they will cooperate with the cons more than anyone else. The Cons will be switching leaders, so can have an excuse for voting with the Libs, there will be some "tough" defunding decisions both of those parties will want to make, and the owned medai will tell us that the NDP was just asking the Liberals for too much. Of course this could give the NDP more credibility as an alternative.
Fri, 2011-04-08 16:30
#27
Polls seem to be all over the place. Confusing!
Fri, 2011-04-08 16:39
#28
I think they have been pushing hard because they don't have to own the policy. Like they mention, another party agreed with their plans. It gives them cover for bad and they ALWAYS take the acclaim of anything good, even if they directly opposed it. In the meantime, catspaw Iggy is busy carrying water for the cons. He votes with them, abstains on liberal progressive bills, and then trys the redbook(NDP policy) schtick to sway the left voters in regions where it helps the cons.
Fri, 2011-04-08 18:02
#29
If Ipsos has the NDP also at a high number, something must be going on:
Con: 41% (-2%)
Lib: 26% (+2%)
[b]NDP: 19% (+3%)[/b]
BQ: 8%
Green: 4% (-1%)
______________________________________
Ipsos also appears to have ascertained [b]likely[/b] (56%) voters:
Con: 44%
Liberal: 26%
NDP: 18%
Green: 4%
BQ: 8%
http://www.globaltvbc.com/Liberals+gaining+Tories+stay/4584984/story.html
Fri, 2011-04-08 18:36
#30
If Ipsos has the NDP also at a high number, something must be going on:
Con: 41% (-2%)
Lib: 26% (+2%)
[b]NDP: 19% (+3%)[/b]
BQ: 8%
Green: 4% (-1%)
______________________________________
Ipsos also appears to have ascertained [b]likely[/b] (56%) voters:
Con: 44%
Liberal: 26%
NDP: 18%
Green: 4%
BQ: 8%
http://www.globaltvbc.com/Liberals+gaining+Tories+stay/4584984/story.html
So Ipsos is the only pollster screening out unlikely voters
Fri, 2011-04-08 18:40
#31
There is indeed something strange going on with the polling results and Layton's quote today about sums it up.
Fri, 2011-04-08 18:57
#32
Interestingly, Electionprediction.org has Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River as TCTC. Given that the NDP has a highly-visible FN candidate in a riding where FNs make up a significant part of the electorate, and that the Liberals are still trying to shake off the 'featherhead' episode, does this indicate a possible Jack-in-the-box surprise come May 2? The voter base is low, so the vote goes all over the place with relative ease.
Lawrence Joseph has a busy Facebook fan page, while Rob Clarke has seemingly never heard of Facebook. Could be one to watch on election night.
Fri, 2011-04-08 19:20
#33
Lawrence Joseph has a busy Facebook fan page, while Rob Clarke has seemingly never heard of Facebook. Could be one to watch on election night.
Facebook is a terrible way to judge support. In the last Winnipeg minicipal election, Judy Wasylicia-Leis had more support on Facebook than the incumbent mayor, and in the Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette by-election, Denise Harder of the NDP had more Facebook support than Robert Sopuck of the Conservatives. Both women lost to their right-wing opponents.
Fri, 2011-04-08 19:57
#34
Agreed, but to dismiss Facebook support entirely would be unwise. You can't pull 750 supporters out of thin air. I know. I've tried.
It's a good thing that Joseph has an active Facebook fan page (and that the incumbent doesn't), but his long involvement in public life would count for a lot more. The fan page is more of a PR thing, and it's even better when one of your opponents doesn't turn up at all, and the Liberal has this (49 supporters, as I write).
Clearly something must have landed on Electionprediction.org's desk that has caused them to put this one in the TCTC column. I'm just wondering what it is.
Fri, 2011-04-08 20:00
#35
I'd even go further and suggest that in a riding like DMCR, Facebook is less of a factor, as the communities in those areas tend to be smaller and person-to-person contact would still be a decisive factor.
Having said that, I agree that there is potentila in DMCR, and I hope Mr. Joseph wins and I think that is a realistic possibilty. It shares similar characteristics to the other Churchill riding in Manitoba.
Fri, 2011-04-08 20:09
#36
There is indeed something strange going on with the polling results and Layton's quote today about sums it up.
What qoute was that?
Fri, 2011-04-08 20:18
#37
Something to the effect that they were bouncing around.
Fri, 2011-04-08 20:41
#38
82.5% of all statistics are printed to prove someones point.
It is high time to get rid of Harper, he is wayyyy too much of a puppet, he is like the talking head down south (Obama). I am sick of this country blindly following the American lead, and I certainly don't think that we need to buy any American arms, we can make our own thanks.
Fri, 2011-04-08 22:01
#39
The full Ipsos results are here:
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=10582
Some interestings demos. Every other poll i have ever seen shows a significant gender gap with the Tories being much lower among women and the NDP and to some extent the Liberals being lower among men. This poll shows no gender gap at all - support for the three major parties is almost identical among men and women...strange.
Also, usually NDP support lags among older people - but this poll has NDP support at 20% in the oldest demographic. I guess Layton's emphasis on pensions is bearing fruit.
Fri, 2011-04-08 22:50
#40
I think that is true for Ontario only. Things seem to be different outside the naval gazing of the GTA and a few other places in the province. Of course the Liberals can always depend on the Toronto Star to print their propoganda and I am sure that helps.Didn't seem to help Smitherman in the most recent election.
Well, it didn't help him *win*. But it helped frame him as the clear anti-Ford candidate--much as Iggy's being framed as the clear anti-Harper candidate w/Layton pushed well into the Pantalone background...
Fri, 2011-04-08 22:54
#41
FWIW, here are the even more detailed Ipsos tables:
Fri, 2011-04-08 23:01
#42
Is Nanos trying the scare Canadians? Sheesh!
Sat, 2011-04-09 02:12
#43
I see Nanos is getting to people on the Electionprediction site...apparently he has a reputation for the being most accurate pollster (undeserved).
Sat, 2011-04-09 03:19
#44
Is Nanos trying the scare Canadians? Sheesh!
Why would Nanos be trying to scare people?
It's the Ipsos-Reid poll that is the scariest one. They always have the Cons with bigger numbers than is really the case.
Sat, 2011-04-09 05:46
#45
La Presse/CROP poll - April 9th
Outremont
Thomas Mulcair (47%)
Martin Cauchon (27%)
Lac St. Louis
Francis Scarpaleggia (46%)
Larry Smith (26%)
Sat, 2011-04-09 07:15
#46
Anything about how Lil' Justin is doing in Papineau?
Sat, 2011-04-09 07:28
#47
Nanos tracking:
Cons 40.5
Libs 31.7
NDP 13.2
Bloc 9.2
Green 4.0
http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110408-BallotE.pdf
Sat, 2011-04-09 08:05
#48
knownothing
I hate Nanos!
Sat, 2011-04-09 08:13
#49
alan smithee
La Presse/CROP poll - April 9th
Outremont
Thomas Mulcair (47%)
Martin Cauchon (27%)
Lac St. Louis
Francis Scarpaleggia (46%)
Larry Smith (26%)
The Larry Smith numbers make sense.
I went to an MSM site reading the story of his declaration that it is 'normal' for ridings to get more $$$ if they vote for those in power.
Atleast 90% of the comments were negative which is really interesting considering the comment section in MSM sites are almost ALWAYS flooded with right wing trolls.
He really shot himself in the foot with that comment..People were repulsed.
And this is excellent news.
Now if only things could actually stick to the rest of the Reform Party caucus.
Sat, 2011-04-09 08:31
#50
Arthur Cramer
Does anyone actually believe Nanos?
Sat, 2011-04-09 08:34
#51
Nanos has a national swing towards the BQ that's LARGER than the swing to the BQ IN QUEBEC. Is that mathematically possible?