Sorry, I just don't believe it.
Get out and work hard and we'll be fine. These polls are simply totally meaningless.
Submitted by Catchfire on
Continued from here.
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Sun, 2011-04-10 14:29
#1
Arthur Cramer
Sun, 2011-04-10 15:09
#2
Sorry, I just don't believe it.Get out and work hard and we'll be fine. These polls are simply totally meaningless.
We're socialists, we don't believe in working! ;)
Anyways, hear hear, let's keep going, and don't let anyone tell you what can't be done.
Sun, 2011-04-10 16:14
#3
It looks like the NDP has turned the corner in today's Nanos poll and after bottoming out is beginning to go back up. I think we'll begin to see better numbers for the NDP in the Nanos poll from now on.
Sun, 2011-04-10 19:10
#4
Very few were buying into it in the first place. It was the same as saying the Liberals are doing well in Quebec which everyone knows is utter BS.
Sun, 2011-04-10 19:11
#5
Actually, I'm more skeptical of polls that show the Liberals with 11% of the vote and the NDP over 20% in Quebec. Sorry, but that does not compute.
Sun, 2011-04-10 19:12
#6
Arthur Cramer
@ghoris:
I accept that the Lib numbers are likely screwy; I have to admit it. I hate the Libs.
But, I also don't believe that the New Dem vote is folding up like a cheap old accordion either.
Sun, 2011-04-10 19:17
#7
You can be skeptical all you want but that is what CROP a reliable Quebec pollster says.
Why do you think Mulcair is 20% ahead of the Liberals in Outremont or do you not believe that as well.
Anyways here is more from NANOS.
http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110409-LeadershipE.pdf
Sun, 2011-04-10 19:21
#8
NR, you don't always have to make your points with a sledge hammer technique. It's important to leave room for the opinions and interpretations of others.
I'm the one who first posted the Outremont and Lac St Louis polls, so I'm aware of what they say.
The point is that the 11% Liberal number was several weeks ago and was before the election started. That is an old number now. There have been many other polls since then and none of them have shown the Libs that low in Quebec.
Sun, 2011-04-10 19:22
#9
There was an article I think this weekend maybe in Le Devoir about Layton appearing on a popular Quebec TV show and apparently he was quite the hit. Having that kind of a lead in his own riding frees up Mulcair to work other ridings, and with Layton coming from Quebec, it looks encouraging there for the NPD.
Sun, 2011-04-10 19:26
#10
Are all the polling numbers being thrown around simply based on all respondents who state a preference, or are they the numbers for the 'likely/certain' voters? I only ask because typically Tory supporters are more likely to vote than the others. I'd be curious to know what the numbers are based on the people who are actually planning to vote.
Sun, 2011-04-10 19:28
#11
@Arthur: Fair enough. I suspect the NDP vote is up in Quebec over 2008. Hopefully it's not just a parking vote, and hopefully it is sufficiently concentrated in certain areas (Gatineau Valley, Montreal, possibly the north) to result in some more seats.
@NorthReport: CROP could be out, just like everyone here seems convinced Nanos is. My gut just says that the Liberals cannot possibly be that low. I mean that's way worse than Turner did in 84 and 88, which were the Liberals' nadir elections when they were either getting whacked across the country ('84) or deeply unpopular in Quebec over their lukewarm support for (and in some cases, opposition to) the Meech Lake Accord ('88). And Mulcair could very well be out front in Outremont by a significant margin - in fact I suspect he probably is - but there are lots of other explanations for that. My concern is that the NDP polling support in Quebec does not always seem to translate into actual votes on election day (hence my comment about a 'parking vote' above).
Sun, 2011-04-10 19:31
#12
There was an article I think this weekend maybe in Le Devoir about Layton appearing on a popular Quebec TV show and apparently he was quite the hit. Having that kind of a lead in his own riding frees up Mulcair to work other ridings, and with Layton coming from Quebec, it looks encouraging there for the NPD.
Yes, Layton was on "Tout le Monde en Parle" last Sunday.
As for Mulcair, I think he is likely to win his riding, but he doesn't want to take it for granted because while he will probably win, the final vote could be closer than what yesterday's poll said. In 2008, Mulcair's vote dropped significantly from what it had been in the 2007 by-election, so things can change on election day.
Sun, 2011-04-10 19:55
#13
Mulcair would never taken his seat for granted as he is not a Liberal, and NPDers do not feel they are entitled to their entitlements.
But more likely because the NPD has the momentum in Quebec, Mulcair's margin of victory will be greater than the 20% lead he now has over Cauchon.
Sun, 2011-04-10 20:30
#14
Well, to reiterate from the previous thread--let's be fair here. IMO an 8% NDP showing in Ontario and a 11% Liberal showing in Quebec are on the same plane of bottoming-out implausibility. So when any of you gloat about Justin T. being doomed on 11% grounds while knocking the EPP types for gloating at doomed Ontario NDPers on 8% grounds--double standard, folks, double standard...
Sun, 2011-04-10 20:32
#15
Are all the polling numbers being thrown around simply based on all respondents who state a preference, or are they the numbers for the 'likely/certain' voters? I only ask because typically Tory supporters are more likely to vote than the others. I'd be curious to know what the numbers are based on the people who are actually planning to vote.
The last Ipsos poll drilled deeper & determined that 56% were really really really really likely to vote (which is very close to voter turnout in 2008). The result was the Conservatives went from 41% to 44%, the Liberals stayed at 26% & the NDP went from 19% to 18%.
Sun, 2011-04-10 20:33
#16
Adma
You are talking through your hat as there is more to it in Papineau that many people who post here already know about. Carry on.
Sun, 2011-04-10 20:50
#17
Are all the polling numbers being thrown around simply based on all respondents who state a preference, or are they the numbers for the 'likely/certain' voters? I only ask because typically Tory supporters are more likely to vote than the others. I'd be curious to know what the numbers are based on the people who are actually planning to vote.
The last Ipsos poll drilled deeper & determined that 56% were really really really really likely to vote (which is very close to voter turnout in 2008). The result was the Conservatives went from 41% to 44%, the Liberals stayed at 26% & the NDP went from 19% to 18%.
I can't believe Canadians would reward the Cons with a majority. I just can't. Anyone who has paid attention to the Harper government's behaviour and actions over the years would never trust them with even fewer checks and balances. Ugh.
Sun, 2011-04-10 20:55
#18
The last Ipsos poll drilled deeper & determined that 56% were really really really really likely to vote (which is very close to voter turnout in 2008). The result was the Conservatives went from 41% to 44%, the Liberals stayed at 26% & the NDP went from 19% to 18%.
I past election in Canada, anytime anyone has tried to replicate these American-style "likely voter" screens - it always seems to be less accurate than simple polls of all eligible voters. I think part of the reason is that in many ways, the people who vote self-select to take part in surveys on politics are also the people who vote. Keep in mind that a GOOD response rate to a phone poll these days is about 10% - in other words 90% of the people who are contacted will either never be home or will refuse to take part in the poll. I think that non-voters tend to be largely found in that group.
Sun, 2011-04-10 21:22
#19
Adma
You are talking through your hat as there is more to it in Papineau that many people who post here already know about. Carry on.
Yeah, and the same was said about Parkdale-High Park in 2008. I'm not saying that Justin will absolutely win or absolutely lose; but at this stage in the game, when the Grits in Quebec are ranging from 11% to 27%, I wouldn't put all my eggs into any basket...
Sun, 2011-04-10 21:25
#20
Hint for Papineau: Mulcair's 20% lead in Outremont. There is a connection.
Sun, 2011-04-10 22:51
#21
There may be a little bit more to what Nanos was up to than meets the eye. See what Nanos and the Globe have cooked up for tomorrow noon.
Sun, 2011-04-10 23:01
#22
want to give us a hint. Some of us don't have high speed.
Sun, 2011-04-10 23:23
#23
Hint for Papineau: Mulcair's 20% lead in Outremont. There is a connection.
You're suggesting the NDP will win Papineau?
Sun, 2011-04-10 23:33
#24
Hint for Papineau: Mulcair's 20% lead in Outremont. There is a connection.
You're suggesting the NDP will win Papineau?
North is suggesting there may be some truth to the rumoured deal between the BQ and the NDP in the two seats to target the Liberals...
Sun, 2011-04-10 23:43
#25
This rumoured "deal" is absurd - and is the product of a few Liberal bloggers imaginations. The BQ is polling at 15% in Outremont - that is about what they got in the 2008 election and apparently the BQ candidate is running an active campaign there and has posters everywhere - now, if a lot of people who normally vote BQ decide to vote NDP this time because they happen to like Layton and like Mulcair and they realize that the BQ is a wasted vote in Outremont - that is not about parties making any kind of a deal - its about the NDP succeeding in attracting BQ voters. As for Papineau - the NDP has always been very weak there - though apparently they have a good candidate there this time. Its actually very hard to figure out who is helped or hurt in Papineau by the NDP getting more or fewer votes - on the one hand the NDP might take "federalist" votes from Justin Trudeau - on the other hand the NDP might take votes from leftwing people who usually vote BQ - so even if the NDP actually WANTED to help the BQ defeat Trudeau (and I'm not sure that they even do) - how would they do that? by running a strong campaign or a weak campaign?
Mon, 2011-04-11 00:04
#26
I will forecast now that the Bloc wins Papineau.
Mon, 2011-04-11 00:12
#27
In some ways I kind of hope Justin Trudeau wins - I think he's a very dim bulb with about 1% of his father's intelligence and political talent - but if he is still an MP, the Liberals would probably be crazy enough to make him their new leader!
Mon, 2011-04-11 00:30
#28
See -- North's connection is the Liberals are weak...
Mon, 2011-04-11 00:34
#29
Why are some people here so keen to see Justin Trudeau defeated?
Mon, 2011-04-11 04:57
#30
See -- North's connection is the Liberals are weak...
But they're clever. And can be weak as a fox. And from experience, Dippers/Babblers should know that.
I mean, is that all it is? Transcribing that Outremont poll wholesale onto Papineau? Look: we're dealing with different parties, different incumbencies, maybe even the 2008 situation where things narrowed greatly for Mulcair by e-day (not unlike P-HP where Nash looked set to hold Kennedy off until the very end). Outremont's a very riding-specific circumstance: it's not reflective of a universal Grit black hole that's set to hold until e-day. I'm not saying Justin can't lose; just stating that you can't count your chickens before they're hatched...
Mon, 2011-04-11 08:41
#31
If this polling is accurate we may be looking at a Harper majority because the Cons will probably pick up around 3% on voting day as their voters are the most motivated.
Nanos
C - 41.2%, Up 1.7%
L - 30.4%, Down 1.2%
N - 15.2%, Up 0.5%
B - 7.*%, Down 0.3%
G - 4.8%, Down 0.2%
http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110410-BallotE.pdf
Mon, 2011-04-11 08:50
#32
This Nanos poll is devastating for the Liberals as they just dropped 3% against the Cons in one day.
Mon, 2011-04-11 08:59
#33
If this polling is accurate we may be looking at a Harper majority because the Cons will probably pick up around 3% on voting day as their voters are the most motivated.
Nanos
C - 41.2%, Up 1.7%
L - 30.4%, Down 1.2%
N - 15.2%, Up 0.5%
B - 7.*%, Down 0.3%
G - 4.8%, Down 0.2%
http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110410-BallotE.pdf
I would not underestimate the motivation of those who are appalled at the notion of a Harper victory. They may not yet be committed to a particular party, but I imagine they are committed to removing the Conservatives, regardless of who replaces him. Also, the main trendline poll numbers do not tell the entire story. It is true that the Conservatives are polling in the high thirties consistently, but that ignores the fact that much of this support is in the west, where it is superfluous . Out there, they could add even more support and it would not buy them any more seats since they are guaranteed to win almost everything anyway. It is in Ontario and Quebec where the race is tight and getting tighter. These two provinces will determine just how many seats all that Conservative support will actually generate.
Getting back to my point about motivated anti Harper voters, just look at the erosion of NDP support to the Liberals. I doubt that this is based on some newfound awakening to the charms of Michal Ignatieff and his Red Book of the Revolution. It is based on a real fear of a Harper majority, and the need to defeat Harper even if it means voting in Liberals. I think Harper's campaign tactics have fed into a fear of what a Conservative majority government might do with all that unrestrained power.
Mon, 2011-04-11 09:06
#34
So how many seats can the NPD pick up in Quebec?
In Quebec, the NPD is No. 2
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/lysiane-gagnon/in-quebec-th...
Mon, 2011-04-11 09:47
#35
Nanos, Nanos, Nanos. They are not the only game in town.
http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/fedsupportgraphs.html
Keep in mind that their three day rolling sample polls only contact 400 people per day. While overall trends may be discernable, sudden fluctuations have to be taken with a grain of salt.
Mon, 2011-04-11 09:54
#36
knownothing
Although the NDP will bleed some votes to the Liberals I believe the final Lib numbers will be lower than the polls are showing. Their support is disorganized and the people who will vote for them are not hardcore. Whereas the NDP and Tory vote is more solid. Noah Evanchuk is gonna take down Ray Boughen here in Palliser for an Saskatchewan NDP seat.
Mon, 2011-04-11 09:54
#37
If this polling is accurate we may be looking at a Harper majority because the Cons will probably pick up around 3% on voting day as their voters are the most motivated.
Why is that every time a poll comes out showing the Conservatives doing well you're reaction always seems to be to gloat about and express delight> Can you explain why you're such a harper fan?
Mon, 2011-04-11 09:57
#38
knownothing
I agree Stockholm. To add to the fear of a Harper majority just deceives people into thinking a Liberal government would be any better. Everyone has to recognize that the Liberals are JUST as bad as the Torys they just put on a socialist face. All the polls are trying to show NDP collapse to push vote to the Libs and the Greens but it will stay solid between 15 and 20%. Libs are the real enemy. We know what the cons stand for. The Liberals steal our votes.
Mon, 2011-04-11 10:05
#39
Could this just be a short-term platform bump for the Cons? I hope so.
Mon, 2011-04-11 10:06
#40
Boom Boom
The Liberals steal our votes.
They're not your votes - they're nobodies votes - the electorate can place their votes for whomever they choose.
Mon, 2011-04-11 10:12
#41
I'm intesrested in Wednesday morning's numbers.
Mon, 2011-04-11 10:13
#42
knownothing
Boom Boom
The votes I am referring to belong to the left because the people believe that is what they are voting for only the LIberals are liars and don't follow through
Mon, 2011-04-11 10:14
#43
That's a right-wing think tank
Nanos, Nanos, Nanos. They are not the only game in town.
http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/fedsupportgraphs.html
Keep in mind that their three day rolling sample polls only contact 400 people per day. While overall trends may be discernable, sudden fluctuations have to be taken with a grain of salt.
Mon, 2011-04-11 10:16
#44
I'm intesrested in Wednesday morning's numbers.
They will not reflect the debate's influence, since polsters can't be expecetd to call people late in the evening after the debate ends. Wait until the following days after people have had time to react to and discuss the "performances".
Mon, 2011-04-11 10:23
#45
Boom Boom
Boom Boom
The votes I am referring to belong to the left because the people believe that is what they are voting for only the LIberals are liars and don't follow through
That's still nonsense. How do you know what people are voting for? Votes don't 'belong' to the left - or right or centre, you either get votes on Election Day or you don't.
Mon, 2011-04-11 10:30
#46
knownothing
If you vote on an issue you are voting for right or left even if you don't know it
Mon, 2011-04-11 10:34
#47
Good to have an unrepentant pedant on board, Incorrect. Unless of course you are a sock puppet.
Mon, 2011-04-11 10:35
#48
I know in my riding here in NB it's either Cons or Libs. The NDP came in a distant third and have never had much presence in my area, which is a bit odd since Yvon Godin is the MP in a nearby riding. I consider myself left-wing but vote Liberal because that's basically my only option if I want to keep the Cons out here.
Mon, 2011-04-11 10:37
#49
knownothing
Strategic voting is bull
Mon, 2011-04-11 10:38
#50
knownothing
Paulitical Junkie. The longer you keep voting Liberal to avoid the Torys the more you make the problem worse. Why not vote NDP and let the Torys win as you say they will and see if your constituents wake up?
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