Federal Polling - April 11

Consdiering that I can't even find the last polling thread Ill repost what I put there.-

Yeah we all know how shitty the liberals are, But the cons aren't even interested in anyone elses opinions. SO I guess when we get a con majority instead of a liberal NDP coalition where jack can have actual influence on policy and make canadians stand up and notice how different all the parties  operate(see ontario in the 80's) some of you will be happy with "the harper government" demolishing democracy in our country.

We are talking about a party that is more dangerous than just wiping out social programs, but one that wants to destory opinion that is contrary to the chicago school of thought. Regardless of the enabling liberals(which is what you should show people) the cons have brought in some of the worst destabilizing events in canadian history. G20 and martial law ring a bell? That is arresting political opponents? We usually condemn other nations that have governments that do that. Spending tons on the militray and moving from the liberal "yeah we can go to war" to the con"bring on our next battle, we want a more combat oriantated role"

All the while increaseing the police state and making so many more things a criminal offence. Add to this spending us into the poor house without ANYTHING to show for....yeah but somehow the liberals are worse...do tell. I hate how the libs portray themselves as left and don't enact upon it unless shoved there. But at least when shoved they will follow through. The cons have no such compuctuation. They are worse versions of the liberals. Ones who have more scandals in lies come out in 5 years than mulroney and chretien governments combined. If you want to make a case for SOME former conservatives, sure. But the present republicans using the conservative name. NO, They are more dangerous to canada than any previous government we have ever had. This isn't fear mongering, its fact.

I am telling everyone I know to vote NDP because they are what the liberals pretend to be. But that doesn't mean that I would cheer for the libs to fall to 50 seats of it menas the bloc is at 47 and the NDP at 43. Because in the end it does us no good to have a more right wing gov with absolute rule. Given the rules the conservative put into place that allows news to lie(because they aren't as bad as the libs) and the new fox news north, what are the odds that when tied to the money they will pump into lies and bullshit, while eliminating per vote money, that much of anything of real substance will stay in the public mind. 

As it is many of us have trouble understanding how partisans and regular folk are allowing harper to hover anywhere close to 40% with the largest pile of scandals I can remember in such a short period of time. Not including all the secrecy and way he has completely cut off reporters from even questioning his governemtn..."hey let baird field this question so no stink is on me king harper." Do we even remember the last time we saw a scrum and receieved anything not just a straight talking point that is repeated ad nauseum from the rebulican playbook of denials. Including the hacks that pass as experts or worse as the moderator of political shows.

And it's super news for Jack - for the progressive voter there is a clear choice here!

Speaking of Sun Media, when does their "FOX News North" launch? I have no interest in watching it, but I'm surprised this potential Con propaganda outlet isn't up and running for the election.

thorin_bane wrote:

I am telling everyone I know to vote NDP because they are what the Liberals pretend to be. But that doesn't mean that I would cheer for the Libs to fall to 50 seats of it means the Bloc is at 47 and the NDP at 43. Because in the end it does us no good to have a more right wing gov with absolute rule.

That's how I feel except I tell everyone here to vote BQ instead of NDP (it seems unlikely to me that the BQ will lose this riding anytime soon).

A Harper majority is to be avoided at all costs in my opinion - even if means a lot of NDP seats go Liberal, or vice-versa; whatever works.

In fact right now I'd MUCH prefer to see an Ignatieff-led minority government, kept in check by the NDP and BQ.

It's no longer a question of whether the neo-cons will win the election, rather whether or not it will be a majority. I'm predicting that we will either see the liberals undergo a massive collapse in the next few weeks and the neo-cons steamroll to a massive majority, or else things will stay more or less as they are now, and the neo-cons will wind up with a similar number of seats as they have now.

Nanos April 11th - NDP surging at expense of Tories

Conservative 39.7% -1.5
Liberal 31.2% +0.8
NDP 16.8% +1.6
BQ 7.8% NC -
Green 4.0% -0.6

This is getting closer to the real numbers but judging from other polls the NDP is going to crack 20%. The worst thing is this leadership index, what a crock!

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/43747/conservatives-drop-back-lead-liber...

http://legermarketing.com/documents/intvote/IVFEDEN_canada.pdf

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/lysiane-gagnon/in-quebec-th...

I think that Angus Reid link is to an old poll. The page says it was conducted in early January.

Here's the latest Harris Decima poll:

Canada (Apr 7-10):  PC - 40%, Lib - 28%, NDP - 15%, BQ - 8%, Green - 8%

Canada (Mar 31 - Apr 10):  PC - 38%, Lib - 28%, NDP - 16%, BQ - 9%, Green - 8%

Ontario (Apr 7-10):  PC - 38%, Lib - 37%, NDP - 15%, Green - 8%

Ontario (Mar 31 - Apr 10):  PC - 41%, Lib - 36%, NDP - 14%, Green - 8%

Quebec (Apr 7-10):  BQ - 34%, PC - 24%, Lib - 20%, NDP - 11%, Green - 7%

Quebec (Mar 31 - Apr 10):  BQ - 39%, PC - 21%, Lib - 20%, NDP - 13%, Green - 6%

Atlantic (Mar 31 - Apr 10):  Lib - 37%, PC - 36%, NDP - 21%, Green - 6%

Man/Sask (Mar 31 - Apr 10):  PC - 46%, NDP - 23%, Lib - 20%, Green - 10%

Alberta (Mar 31 - Apr 10):  PC - 62%, Lib - 18%, NDP - 11%, Green - 8%

BC (Mar 31 - Apr 10):  PC - 38%, Lib - 24%, NDP - 24%, Green - 12%

I am curious about the disconnect between the Quebec polls by CROP and Leger, with >1,000 Quebec respondents which show the NDP surging and the national polls with <200 Quebec respondents showing the NDP only slightly above usual levels.

Malcolm wrote:

I am curious about the disconnect between the Quebec polls by CROP and Leger, with >1,000 Quebec respondents which show the NDP surging and the national polls with <200 Quebec respondents showing the NDP only slightly above usual levels.

The polls which have the NDP highest in Quebec are national-Angus Reid & Forum Research. CROP & Leger are very similar to Ipsos, Nanos, Environics, Abacus & Ekos-around 18% to 21%. Harris-Decima is the outlier.

racial_realist wrote:

It's no longer a question of whether the neo-cons will win the election, rather whether or not it will be a majority. I'm predicting that we will either see the liberals undergo a massive collapse in the next few weeks and the neo-cons steamroll to a massive majority, or else things will stay more or less as they are now, and the neo-cons will wind up with a similar number of seats as they have now.

btw...any chance you're ever going to tell us what "racial realist" actually MEANS?  That term makes a lot of us queasy, to say the least.

CTV reporting on their news ticker that the NDP is in freefall in ontario as people "flock" to Liberals.

Cool eh? Completely fact-free news.

It isn't a percent it is some totally made up index.   My respect for Nanos ans CTV/ Globe and Mail is dropping like a stone.

bekayne wrote:

The polls which have the NDP highest in Quebec are national-Angus Reid & Forum Research. CROP & Leger are very similar to Ipsos, Nanos, Environics, Abacus & Ekos-around 18% to 21%. Harris-Decima is the outlier.

Maybe I was thinking of some pre-election polls.  They're all starting to blend together.

Harper expected to win debates:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5jnC-BrAZJFsMdeh2MO6oENd6LEIQ?docId=6543227

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Yes, yesterday. That's the Nanos system - how someone got over 100% is beyond me.

It's a combination of 3 numbers, meaning the highest you can score is 300. Harper dropped 7.6 on trust in one night, which in a 3 day rolling poll is pretty huge.

Hopefully the Harper drop in trust last night was because of the Auditor General's G8/G20 report.

I just hope that Harper's "good" debate performance doesn't start moving him back up in trust again.

Compas is a very rightwing company which used to do a lot of very biased polling for the National Post - so caveat emptor. Its kind of odd to have such a partial release where they tell you the Tories are 21 points ahead, but they don't tell you what percentage of the vote anyone has.

harpers done better choose your 2nd place party

lolz

COMPAS also likes to ask some idiotic questions:

http://www.torontosun.com/news/decision2011/2011/04/12/17970801.html