Election Prediction Sites

14 posts / 0 new

Tue, 2011-04-12 14:20

Catchfire

There are a number of election prediction/strategic voting sites available for this election. I just got emailed a new one, projectdemocracy.ca

It advised me that my riding, Vancouver Kingsway, despite the fact that it was held by NDP incumbent Don Davies, voting NDP may not be my best option. Hmm.

Other sites, many of which have been mentioned elsewhere already, include:

Catch 22 Campaign (strategic voting site pointing out vulnerable conservative- and opposition-held ridings)

Threehundredeight.com (election prediction site)

Swing33.ca (Links to the donation pages of the 33 ridings that were won by less

than 5% in 2008, and where Conservatives finished either first or second. )

What do we think of these sites (arguments about strategic voting aside)? Are there any others worth mentioning?

Issues Pages:

Elections

Regions:

Tue, 2011-04-12 14:28

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

I personally don't have any use for them. I don't think most do a good job of acutally being objective in their intreptation of whatis occuring based on what is happening on the ground. And besides, they are just another "stressor" I don't need.

Tue, 2011-04-12 14:41

Boom Boom

308.com I think just averages all the polls together, but at least this week they've moved away from predicting a Harper majority.

Tue, 2011-04-12 15:20

Incorrect

There is some value in strategic voting. I have never agreed with this statement until this election. In my riding the Conservatives were dead last in 2008 after the Liberals, Bloc Quebecoise, and NDP, so I have the luxury of voting for whoever I want. If there was a possibility of a Conservative win in my riding, I would vote for whoever had the chance of defeating them, regardless of their party affiliation.

Harper must be stopped. By any democratic means necessary.

http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/seatprojections.html

http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/projections.php

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2011/

http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/predictor/index.php?o=sp&j=6:0.398,4:0.302,3:0.165,2:0.04,5:0.083,1:0.012&r=0

Sun, 2021-11-28 18:02

jfb

Sun, 2021-11-28 18:02

jfb

Tue, 2011-04-12 15:44

knownothing knownothing's picture

yes ProjectDemocracy is a Liberal propoganda tool to bleed NDP votes to the Liberal party. Watch out people, don't buy in to this strategic voting. Liberals are as bad as Harper. If you want change vote NDP even if your candidate will lose.

Tue, 2011-04-12 15:46

NorthReport

These are all probably hosted by political party supporters with vested interests

Always ask yourself the question about any of these sites - what party are they affiiated with. and usually one can tell 30 seconds into the website.

Want a good laugh - look at Burnaby-Douglas

projectdemocracy.ca

Tue, 2011-04-12 17:33

Life, the unive...

I call total bullshit on that projectdemocracy site.

First of all I find it ironic that a site that says it is all about democracy doesn't allow people to point out where their assumptions are wrong. First tip off this is about partisan politics and nothing else

Secondly I typed in my postal code and was sent to the wrong riding. Tip off that these folks don't know the first foggiest thing about rural Ontario

Thirdly, well connected Liberals in my riding of Huron-Bruce are privately conceeding they are in 3rd place here. Bagnato is no McClinchey and Robertson is no McQuail. The roles in this riding have shifted and this site and others are looking in the rear view mirror not the other way. The Liberals are so desperate here to regain 2nd at any cost they are running ads explicitly telling people not to vote NDP. That smacks of desperation and a signal that the Liberals know they are playing catch up.

Fourthly, they are actually predicting a decline in the NDP vote from Robertson's 2006 result. There is simply no evidence that someone who was on local radio every week with a popular rural/farm commentary since then, is a fixture in local rinks and was the popular and award-winning Ontario head of a farm organization has suddenly become less supported. The exact opposite is true. I hear people who would have never said such a thing as voting NDP out loud talking about how they will be voting for him. (Not often is it express as for the NDP, but more support for him personally) On the other hand people who worked with Bagnato as mayor, are all saying they would never vote for the guy and can't stand him because he talks out of both sides of his mouth.

In short pure bullshit based on nothing- but typical

Tue, 2011-04-12 20:09

#10

Aristotleded24

ProjectDemocracy has also refused to call Welland, despite the fact that it is currently held by the NDP. If they're that worried about a Conservative winning, wouldn't the best thing to prevent a Conservative win be to vote for the NDP incumbent, especially in a tight 3-way race?

Tue, 2011-04-12 21:54

#11

Life, the unive...

Dear ProjectDemocracy

Please tell me how a failed mayor - defeated by a record number of votes cast at a rate of 3-1 just a few months ago is pushing at the Conservatives?

Why not just change your name to voteLiberal.ca

Tue, 2011-04-12 22:02

#12

Catchfire

Yes, we all know that projectdemocracy.ca is Alice Klein's project? Klein, of "vote Liberal, I mean, strategically 2008"?

Tue, 2011-04-12 22:39

#13

Aristotleded24

Life, the universe, everything wrote:
Dear ProjectDemocracy

Please tell me how a failed mayor - defeated by a record number of votes cast at a rate of 3-1 just a few months ago is pushing at the Conservatives?

Forget about why Bagnato is a bad candidate, in 2008, the Liberals lost that riding by 8 points. An 8-point gap does not a close race make, especially since Lobb would now have the advantage of incumbency that he didn't have back then.

Wed, 2011-04-13 10:35

#14

A_J

Life, the universe, everything wrote:

Secondly I typed in my postal code and was sent to the wrong riding. Tip off that these folks don't know the first foggiest thing about rural Ontario

The site gives you this message when using the postal code tool:

"Postal codes sometimes cross riding boundaries...

If this is not your riding click on the map where you do live."

knownothing wrote:

yes ProjectDemocracy is a Liberal propoganda tool to bleed NDP votes to the Liberal party. Watch out people, don't buy in to this strategic voting. Liberals are as bad as Harper. If you want change vote NDP even if your candidate will lose.

I decided to investigate whether ProjectDemocracy preferred the Liberals, and came up with this (based on their 48 "key contests"):

NDP Picks - 10 (5 incumbents)

Liberal Picks - 28 (11 incumbents)

Bloc Picks - 4 (didn't count incubents - was just focusing on Liberals and NDP)

Green Picks - 1

(No prediction made in 5 of the "key contests", in one there is an NDP incumbent against a third-place Liberal finish in 2008)

Now, breaking down the Liberal picks (I assume nobody has any problem with those ridings where the NDP was picked), I looked at the 2008 results:

Liberal incumbents with third-place NDP - 9

Liberal incumbents with fourth-place NDP - 1

Liberal second-place with fourth-place NDP - 1

I also assume that these aren't a real problem either - there would have to be a really good reason to vote for a third or fourth-place candidate over an incumbent or second-place finisher, especially since the stated goal of ProjectDemocracy is simply to elect non-Conservatives.

Now, the problematic ridings - Liberal picks where the Liberals and NDP finished first and second, or second and third (there are no ridings - at least amongst the "key contests" - where any party other than the incumbent or top-finisher is picked).

Liberal incumbent with second-place NDP - 1

Liberal second-place with third-place NDP - 16

The sole riding where the NDP finished second to a Liberal incumbent who has been picked by ProjectDemocracy was in Random-Burin-St. George, and the vote spread was 6,994. Their rationale for calling for people to vote Liberal is that "Anybody But Conservative" isn't being promoted by the provincial government this time, and a former provincial cabinet minister is running for the Conservatives.

Of the 16 two-three Liberal-NDP ridings amongst the "key contests", the smallest vote split was 1,950 (and only one other was less than 5,000). The average was 10,747. So in at least 14 of those ridings, clearly there is no chance of an NDP victory. Whether the Liberal candidate is the ideal contender to take the riding from a Conservative after only beating the NDP by about 2,000 votes - as in two of those ridings - is up for debate.

So of the 28 Liberal picks, 11 are for incumbents (though one is against a second-place NDP), 15 are for strong second-place Liberal finishes in 2008 and 2 are for Liberal second-place finishes that didn't so clearly defeat the NDP contender.

I haven't looked in any detail at the "key contests" without a pick, nor at other ridings (I only have so much time!).