Here's the last national Compas I could find, from the coalition days of December 2008 (Harper with a 31% lead):
http://www.compas.ca/data/081205-CommonsTurmoil-EPCB.pdf
Federal Polling - April 11
Wed, 2011-04-13 01:40
#52
Wed, 2011-04-13 01:43
#53
Ipsos-Reid is also a pro-Conservative polling firm, so we should be cautious of their debate poll.
Wed, 2011-04-13 01:44
#54
The debate winner on Twitter: Stephen Harper's stare; PM gaze gets top tweets
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5i8qh5nWEAeO...
Wed, 2011-04-13 08:12
#55
Latest Nanos numbers from Twitter:
3 day tracking CTV/Globe/ #Nanos Apr 10-12, C 39.9, L30.4, N 16.3, B 9.1, G 3.8 http://bit.ly/nanos no AG ballot fall-out
Got that? NO AG BALLOT FALL-OUT. I give up. Nothing sticks to these Cons.
Wed, 2011-04-13 08:37
#56
AG fallout isn't over yet it is just getting started.
Best line in the compass poll Article was about the ndp praying for rain in Quebec for a half century like a man in the desert and sometimes prayer works. Pretty funny.
I also noted that they indicted that NDP support maybe concertrated outside of QC and eastern Quebec so maybe the NDP has better vote density then people expect?
That the NDP is doing well in Northern Ontario is great to hear as well. I also like that the NDP is beating the Liberals in Saskitoba, BC, Quebec. The Liberals are turning into the GTA party.
Wed, 2011-04-13 09:02
#57
Nanos
Canada
Cons - 39.9%, Up 0.2%
Libs - 30.4%, Down 0.8%
NDP - 16.3%, Down 0.5%
Bloc - 9.1%, Up 1.3)%
Grn - 3.8%, Down 0.2%
Und - 17.7%, Up 0.2%
Wed, 2011-04-13 09:13
#58
21% lead - too weird.
Tories destined for a majority: Pollster
http://www.ottawasun.com/news/decision2011/2011/04/12/17974226.html
Wed, 2011-04-13 09:14
#59
'We're losing': Edmonton Conservative pleads for help
http://www.canada.com/news/decision-canada/losing+Edmonton+Conservative+...
Wed, 2011-04-13 09:28
#60
'We're losing': Edmonton Conservative pleads for help
http://www.canada.com/news/decision-canada/losing+Edmonton+Conservative+...
Hehehe. This leaked memo is a major gaffe, makes the Edmonton cons look weak and afraid, and I'm betting that there are reverbations throughout Edmonton from the leak. If something major is happening in Emonton it might not show up in polls when the Tories so strong everywhere else. Heck the Tories are stronger in Alberta then the Bloc is in Quebec so a growing NDP prenence in parts of Edmonton would be easy to miss.
Wed, 2011-04-13 09:30
#61
Maybe the NDP will pick up a couple more seats in the Edmonton area.
Wed, 2011-04-13 09:38
#62
Hopefully the NPD will be able to capitalize on this and pick up more seats in the Montreal area.
[quote]
Although the national numbers have hardly moved, Mr. Nanos is detecting changes regionally, especially in Quebec.
He said there is a "noticeable decline" in Liberal support in the province, most of which is concentrated in Montreal.
"So it looks like any gains the Liberals realized on the island of Montreal last week are now dissipating," he said. Mr. Ignatieff had toured for a couple of days in Quebec, through the Eastern Townships and into Montreal.
Wed, 2011-04-13 09:42
#63
Maybe the NDP will pick up a couple more seats in the Edmonton area.
one of the ndp candidates in the city has a blog and things sound like they are going above expectations not just in Linda's riding but his. Linda's victory and current strong campaign as well as support from Jack seems to be having a net benifit. It the NDP steals Harper seats in Edmonton it help weaken Harper.
As to a 21 percent split between Harper and iggy and with a strong NDP, iggy would have to be nearly tied with Jack at around 21 percent. This was before the debates. It will be interesting to see what happens afterwards.
Still the polls seem to be swinging wilding like a drunk baseball player. This election is getting crazy.
Wed, 2011-04-13 09:48
#64
I think the Liberal collapse is well underway, and hopefully the NDP and the Bloc are going to do well enough to prevent a Harper majority.
Wed, 2011-04-13 11:00
#65
... or your poll numbers were wrong and support is returning to the same level it was all along.
One BIG problem with tracking polls is that one night of bad (or very good) polls can make it look like a party is soaring or crashing when in fact their support hasn't budged at all.
Wed, 2011-04-13 11:21
#66
Boom Boom
Hopefully the NPD will be able to capitalize on this and pick up more seats in the Montreal area.
I'd much rather see a BQ sweep of Quebec, although that's looking more unlikely right now. However, the BQ at 50 seats is still a possibility.
Wed, 2011-04-13 11:35
#67
I'd much rather see a BQ sweep of Quebec, although that's looking more unlikely right now. However, the BQ at 50 seats is still a possibility.
I can't understand why you would prefer that to NDP gains. If there is some sort of "coalition" after the election, it would be have much less support in the rest of Canada if it was dependent on the Bloc. Those here who don't see them as a separatist menace, see them as the party who says, what's in this for Quebec?
Wed, 2011-04-13 11:46
#68
Those here who don't see them as a separatist menace, see them as the party who says, what's in this for Quebec?
Which is absolutely justified in substantive terms, let alone practical considerations of what so many Bloc seats means, given that the Conservatives have the most seats.
Its even debateable how progressive a force the Boc is within Quebec, but there is nothing but romantacism that they are a voice for progressives in the ROC.
Wed, 2011-04-13 11:48
#69
Compas
C - 45%
L - 24%
N -16%
Wed, 2011-04-13 11:51
#70
Wed, 2011-04-13 11:51
#71
I posted the Compas poll last night and I've since been informed that it's basically a Con propaganda outfit.
Wed, 2011-04-13 11:56
#72
Someone voiced their opinion. You should not confuse that with information.
Wed, 2011-04-13 12:14
#73
Boom Boom
I want to see Liberal and Conservative seats in Quebec fall to the BQ. I very much doubt the BQ are in contention for Mulcair's seat.
Wed, 2011-04-13 12:28
#74
Boom Boom
dp
Wed, 2011-04-13 13:05
#75
Different poll, different numbers:
"Race tightened in the hours prior to English debate: EKOS
Posted on Wed, Apr 13, 2011, 11:43 am by Frank Graves
Voters appear to be pulling back from giving the Harper government a Conservative majority and are now looking more carefully at other options, an EKOS-iPolitics poll conducted prior to the English-language debate suggests. In what is the tightest period of the race so far, the 11-point cushion that Conservatives had in the opening days of the campaign has been replaced with a scant 5.6-point lead.
Their comfortable and seat-efficient Ontario margin of 10 points has basically vanished and, at these numbers, the Conservatives would be looking at a significantly diminished minority.
...
The other main story of this poll is that the claimed demise of the NDP is clearly premature. The New Democrats are showing important new strength, particularly in Quebec and British Columbia where they now lead. The NDP have risen steadily since the outset of the campaign (interestingly, not at the expense of the Liberal Party). "
CPC- 33.8%
LPC- 28.8%
NDP- 19.1%
Green- 9%
BQ- 7.8%
Other- 1.5%
http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/13/race-tightened-in-the-hoursprior-to-engli...
The Green party number seems unusually high.
Wed, 2011-04-13 13:06
#76
I want to see Liberal and Conservative seats in Quebec fall to the BQ. I very much doubt the BQ are in contention for Mulcair's seat.
Which seats are you thinking of?
Wed, 2011-04-13 13:14
#77
Boom Boom
Which seats are you thinking of?
All the Conservative seats, certainly. And any Liberal seats they can pick up.
Wed, 2011-04-13 13:15
#78
Different poll, different numbers:
http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/13/race-tightened-in-the-hoursprior-to-english-debate-ekos/
No kidding the NDP is now in first place at 36.8% in BC. Frankly, I believe that as much as the 13% that Nanos had in BC a few days ago. Wonkyville.
Wed, 2011-04-13 13:21
#79
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/ndp-gains-o...
very interesting article. One thing to note is that what helped Harper is that there appeared to be some rule that if someone attacks you you get an immediate rebuttal which seems fair, but given all the attacks on Harper actually caused Harper to have alot more face time and more opportunity to be heard. If Gilles attacks Jack hard in the French debate this same quirk could benifit Jack that way it did in the English debate for Harper.
Wed, 2011-04-13 13:53
#80
The Compas poll was for QMI/The Sun. But earlier this campaign Leger was polling for them. What happened? Were they fired because they weren't giving them the results they wanted?
Wed, 2011-04-13 13:57
#81
Already posted ok.
EKOS
C - 33.8%
L - 28.8%
N - 19.1%
But this is the important part
The other main story of this poll is that the claimed demise of the NDP is clearly premature. The New Democrats are showing important new strength, particularly in Quebec and British Columbia where they now lead. The NDP have risen steadily since the outset of the campaign (interestingly, not at the expense of the Liberal Party
Wed, 2011-04-13 14:22
#82
I really hope the BC numbers are real. That huge lead for the ndp in BC would net tons of seats. Both the Cons and Libs would be burned hard.
I don't like the over all numbers in Ontario. Wait the heck is going on in Ontario. Still I think the worst of it is in the GTA and maybe Ottawa. Basically where I live Richmond Hill btw. Figures.
Montreal and Vancouvers numbers were shocking as well. If the NDP numbers were true the libs would hemerage seats to the NDP in Van. Montreal could see a major winfall too depending on how the NDP lead spread out.
Wed, 2011-04-13 14:29
#83
I really hope the BC numbers are real. That huge lead for the ndp in BC would net tons of seats. Both the Cons and Libs would be burned hard. I don't like the over all numbers in Ontario. Wait the heck is going on in Ontario. Still I think the worst of it is in the GTA and maybe Ottawa. Basically where I live Richmond Hill btw. Figures. Montreal and Vancouvers numbers were shocking as well. If the NDP numbers were true the libs would hemerage seats to the NDP in Van. Montreal could see a major winfall too depending on how the NDP lead spread out.
Note the sample sizes though. 39 for Vancouver, 65 for Ottawa
Wed, 2011-04-13 14:30
#84
scott
Green- 9%
http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/13/race-tightened-in-the-hoursprior-to-engli...
The Green party number seems unusually high.
It is in line with historic numbers. Debate exclusion backlash perhaps?
__________________________________
One struggle, many fronts.
Wed, 2011-04-13 14:31
#85
Ekos always has the Greens higher than anyone else - for Ekos 9% is actually quite low - they used to routinely have them at 11-12%
Wed, 2011-04-13 14:48
#86
I don't like the over all numbers in Ontario. Wait the heck is going on in Ontario. Still I think the worst of it is in the GTA and maybe Ottawa. Basically where I live Richmond Hill btw.
I think part of that can be explained that centre-left voters in Ontario generally tend to vote Liberal provincially, so this would no doubt have an impact federally. Plus, with the economy and people wanting to vote against the incumbent, on a broad scale that would help the dominant oppoistion party (the Liberals) even if people overlook local dynamics in specific ridings (i.e. Welland, Bruce County, Essex). It doesn't look like much can be done about that in this election.
Keep in mind that McGuinty is almost certain to lose Ontario in the Fall, so that will open up Ontario for the NDP to build there provincially.
Wed, 2011-04-13 15:12
#87
Already posted ok.
EKOS
C - 33.8%
L - 28.8%
N - 19.1%
But this is the important part
The other main story of this poll is that the claimed demise of the NDP is clearly premature. The New Democrats are showing important new strength, particularly in Quebec and British Columbia where they now lead. The NDP have risen steadily since the outset of the campaign (interestingly, not at the expense of the Liberal Party
I suspect there is a tight three way race in BC; which means the Liberals are probably not doing well in terms of seats. If the final popular vote (distributing half the Green vote amongst the other parties) were close to this, there would be a substantially reduced minority, with the possibility of the Liberal and NDP seat total exceeding the Conservatives, making some sort of accord more legitimate.
Wed, 2011-04-13 15:26
#88
Hehehe. This leaked memo is a major gaffe, makes the Edmonton cons look weak and afraid, and I'm betting that there are reverbations throughout Edmonton from the leak. If something major is happening in Emonton it might not show up in polls when the Tories so strong everywhere else. Heck the Tories are stronger in Alberta then the Bloc is in Quebec so a growing NDP prenence in parts of Edmonton would be easy to miss.'We're losing': Edmonton Conservative pleads for help
http://www.canada.com/news/decision-canada/losing+Edmonton+Conservative+...
Presumably Lewis Cardinal is doing well. The fact that Linda has considerably more volunteers than last election bodes well. I would have thought that the Conservatives would throw everything at her in an attempt to gain a clean sweep in Alberta. If they are vulnerable elsewhere in Edmonton, that may hinder their efforts to support her opponent (sounds as though the Liberals are invisible in Edmonton-Strathcona).
Wed, 2011-04-13 15:35
#89
Already posted ok.
EKOS
C - 33.8%
L - 28.8%
N - 19.1%
But this is the important part
The other main story of this poll is that the claimed demise of the NDP is clearly premature. The New Democrats are showing important new strength, particularly in Quebec and British Columbia where they now lead. The NDP have risen steadily since the outset of the campaign (interestingly, not at the expense of the Liberal Party
I suspect there is a tight three way race in BC; which means the Liberals are probably not doing well in terms of seats. If the final popular vote (distributing half the Green vote amongst the other parties) were close to this, there would be a substantially reduced minority, with the possibility of the Liberal and NDP seat total exceeding the Conservatives, making some sort of accord more legitimate.
Actually I believe Ekos had the NDP higher in BC then the BQ in quebec. That is not a four way tie. That is huge lead for the NDP. Whether that lasts on May 2 is another question.
I refuse to believe all of Ontario is hopeless. Hopefully Jack has a plan.
Btw I know this off topic but I am having ID problems, and in the past I brought my dad to vouch for me and was able to vote. Can I still do that or have the cons ruined that piece of democracy for me as well?
Wed, 2011-04-13 16:13
#90
More good news for Layton and the NDP - it's that trust and vision thing.
Harper First, Layton second
Nanos Leadership Index
Harper - 94.9, up 0.9
Layton - 57.1, Up 3.0 expands the lead over Ignatieff for 2nd day in a row
Ignatieff - 49.6, up 1.2
http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110412-LeadershipE.pdf
Wed, 2011-04-13 16:52
#91
Great balls of fire!
EKOS
Cons - 33.8%, Down 1.5%
Libs - 28.8%, Up 0.7%
NDP - 19.1%, Up 4.9%
Wed, 2011-04-13 16:56
#92
Harper is still WAY too high on the Leadership Index. It's mind-boggling to me and makes me wonder if I'm out of touch.
Wed, 2011-04-13 17:10
#93
Great balls of fire!
EKOS
Cons - 33.8%, Down 1.5%
Libs - 28.8%, Up 0.7%
NDP - 19.1%, Up 4.9%
Those numbers would given the Libs and the NDP more seats than the Cons. But it's hard to believe the Cons are that low. Just as 45% is way too high.
Wed, 2011-04-13 17:29
#94
The liberals are simple invisible in Alberta period. Or near to it. The liberals thew in the towel early on. They have one campaign office for the whole provence. At least that is the word anyway. Has Iggy been to Alberta in this election yet?
As to polls I expect a few wild ones now and again by wow. Just wow. Such huge difference between polls. The only trendsI can see are cons a have a lead, and the NDP is doing well in Quebec and maybe bc.
Wed, 2011-04-13 17:42
#95
Read 308.com comments about Compas.
Wed, 2011-04-13 18:26
#96
Actually I believe Ekos had the NDP higher in BC then the BQ in quebec. That is not a four way tie. That is huge lead for the NDP. Whether that lasts on May 2 is another question. I refuse to believe all of Ontario is hopeless. Hopefully Jack has a plan. Btw I know this off topic but I am having ID problems, and in the past I brought my dad to vouch for me and was able to vote. Can I still do that or have the cons ruined that piece of democracy for me as well?Already posted ok.
EKOS
C - 33.8%
L - 28.8%
N - 19.1%
But this is the important part
The other main story of this poll is that the claimed demise of the NDP is clearly premature. The New Democrats are showing important new strength, particularly in Quebec and British Columbia where they now lead. The NDP have risen steadily since the outset of the campaign (interestingly, not at the expense of the Liberal Party
I suspect there is a tight three way race in BC; which means the Liberals are probably not doing well in terms of seats. If the final popular vote (distributing half the Green vote amongst the other parties) were close to this, there would be a substantially reduced minority, with the possibility of the Liberal and NDP seat total exceeding the Conservatives, making some sort of accord more legitimate.
I know EKOS had the NDP way ahead in BC. I just don't believe it.
Wed, 2011-04-13 18:56
#97
Why not?
Do you know how unpopular the HST is in BC?
I know EKOS had the NDP way ahead in BC. I just don't believe it.
Wed, 2011-04-13 19:43
#98
Its not unbelievable that the NDP could be ahead in BC. The NDP has been the number one party in BC with support in the high 30s on several occasions - (1972 and 1988 come to mind). Its more that it seems hard to believe given that no other poll (so far) has shown the NDP doing that well in BC. Realistically, I have a hunch that the NDP will boost its support in BC from 26% last time to 29% or 30% and the Tories will be in the high 30s.
Wed, 2011-04-13 22:21
#99
With the EKOS second choice numbers and current levels of support, this gives the following vote ceilings (current support + all possible second-choice support):
Cons 43.3%
Lib 45.5%
NDP 44.2%
Green 20.7
Bloc 12.3
All three parties have the same statistical vote ceiling - this could get very interesting
More interstingly, the numbers also show we have a lot of room to grow by taking votes FROM THE CONSERVATIVES. We are now far and away the second choice of Tory voters. By multiplying the proportion of each party's supporters listing the NDP as a second choice by that party's current level of support, we can get the following popular support increases from other parties:
BQ 2.9% of popular vote
Lib 12.4% ""
Con 7.1% ""
Green 2.4% ""
While we have a lot of room to grow at the expense of the Liberals, there are a lot of votes available to the NDP that are currently parked with the Tories. Intersestingly, for the first time since I have been analyzing the second-choice data (since August), we seem to be making some headway into capturing BQ votes, having now captured about 42% of possible Bloc/NDP swing votes. This compares to 26% of Con-NDP swing voters, 38% of Lib-NDP swing voters and 50% of Green-NDP swing voters.
Wed, 2011-04-13 22:34
#100
With the EKOS second choice numbers and current levels of support, this gives the following vote ceilings (current support + all possible second-choice support):
Cons 43.3%
Lib 45.5%
NDP 44.2%
Green 20.7
Bloc 12.3
All three parties have the same statistical vote ceiling - this could get very interesting
More interstingly, the numbers also show we have a lot of room to grow by taking votes FROM THE CONSERVATIVES. We are now far and away the second choice of Tory voters. By multiplying the proportion of each party's supporters listing the NDP as a second choice by that party's current level of support, we can get the following popular support increases from other parties:
BQ 2.9% of popular vote
Lib 12.4% ""
Con 7.1% ""
Green 2.4% ""
While we have a lot of room to grow at the expense of the Liberals, there are a lot of votes available to the NDP that are currently parked with the Tories. Intersestingly, for the first time since I have been analyzing the second-choice data (since August), we seem to be making some headway into capturing BQ votes, having now captured about 42% of possible Bloc/NDP swing votes. This compares to 26% of Con-NDP swing voters, 38% of Lib-NDP swing voters and 50% of Green-NDP swing voters.
Bang on, hopefully this fact gets more attention in the future. The fact is while Iggy is higher in the polls thanks to residual brand loyalty, Jack is the one with the greatest growth potiential. Especially against the Tories.
Wed, 2011-04-13 22:49
#101
Bang on, hopefully this fact gets more attention in the future. The fact is while Iggy is higher in the polls thanks to residual brand loyalty, Jack is the one with the greatest growth potiential. Especially against the Tories.
Well, unlike Eric Grenier, I am not a blogger with the support of Le Devoir and the Globe, so I doubt my analyses will get much air time. :)