I'm even wondering whether perceived Quebec strength might bump Layton nationwide--even if that sounds perverse in terms of Western Canada...
Federal Polling - April 11
Wed, 2011-04-13 22:56
#102
Wed, 2011-04-13 23:06
#103
I'm even wondering whether perceived Quebec strength might bump Layton nationwide--even if that sounds perverse in terms of Western Canada...
To be honest, adma, I was thinking the same thing. And while I am not privy to the strategic machinations that go on between Jack, Anne McGrath and Brad Levigne, I wonder if that wasn't their campaign strategy all along.
I notice that they have had Mulcair touring all around Quebec shoring up support, while the media broadcast the Liberal line that Layton's health was resulting a in a low-energy lack-lustre campaign. Well he fooled them, now he's swinging around the cane and going all Roosevelt on their asses.
Even if the Quebec support doesn't cause an immediate bandwagon, all the NDP has to do now is get back up to TRADITIONAL levels of support in English Canada. Coupled with the higher Quebec numbers, that means our usual 18-21% polling numbers will be more in the range of 21-24% (Traditional support + 1/4 * difference in Quebec numbers). Once we get to the mid-20s, bandwagoning can happen; with Jack's personal numbers, it's not outside the realm of possibility either.
Wed, 2011-04-13 23:21
#104
I'm even wondering whether perceived Quebec strength might bump Layton nationwide--even if that sounds perverse in terms of Western Canada...
It could in the sense that A) what Happens in Quebec influences Ontario B) It undermines the arguement that only Liberals can stop the Cons especially if Jack is beating Iggy in every provence except Ontario and Altntic Canada, (not counting Alberta because of the unique situation there in Edmonton. C) It reinforces Iggy's weaknesses and weakness in Iggy hurts him period. D) Increases Jack's appearence of crediblity E) hurting Gilles makes support federalists smile.
F)It could insight curiousity and maybe jealousy in a sense H) Moral boost to propective voters and volunteers which leafs to higher turnout for the ndp. Turnout can be as important or close as getting swing votes. J) might make Jack sem more Prime Ministrail. I) It is leading to the weird situation where say the Globe seems to snub Jack for Iggy in ROC, but seem to be glowing about Jack on Quebec. I guess Federalist first right wingers second. Federalist journalists may be nicer to Jack if he is seen as the Federalist hope for beating Gilles. In fact if Jack comes seriously close to tying or beating. Gilles an endorsement from surprising places or papers may happen. No guareentee that they will be able to hold their noses long enough to endorse the ndp.
Wed, 2011-04-13 23:26
#105
The Globe and Mail's headline on their website right now is a good sign that some people are scared of that scenario.
Wed, 2011-04-13 23:34
#106
Winston you have your finger on the greatest concern and greatest opportunity.
16% nationally is terrible in most of the country if 20% is in Quebec-- this means the party is low in most of the places it has seats. If things do not improve it could be a disaster. The only reason for hope if those numbers were true, would be that the NDP vote could have concentrated and fallen in places Liberals have a clear lead for strategic voting. Of course this would create huge problems for future growth.
On the other hand the NDP has had20% in English Canada recently and with 20% in Quebec that is a 20% national level rather than 18 or less. If the NDP recovered at all in English Canada then huge momentum advantages could be felt -- perhaps enough to propel the NDP closer to one in 4 voters.
The English debate Layton won for those who watched and Harper won for those who didn't that is why the nice stat is that over 4 million people watched. This is almost 1 in 3 voters. That is staggering. It is possible that we will see a big turnout this election. If young people get out and vote then the dynamics of the count will be very different and the pollsters will all be wrong since they do their demographics under assumptions that most young people will not vote.
Thu, 2011-04-14 00:07
#107
The Globe and Mail's headline on their website right now is a good sign that some people are scared of that scenario.
The article at the Global is a pathetic attack against Jack and yet even they could not deny Jacks grewth in Quebec. So apparently support for Jack Layton in Quebec, BC, Manitoba, and Saskiwan equals only Iggy can with a fracti on of Jack's popularity.I'd respect the article better if they openly said brought to you by the liberal party of Canada.
I thought maybe, just maybe, Federalist and a love of country would trump corporate servitidude. Guess I was wrong. I expect Iggy to get endorsed by the Globe. They even made out that Harper had some sort of victory by not maytering in this debate. Congratulation you have achieved a new low in Canadian Journalism for yourselves.
Thu, 2011-04-14 01:10
#108
@gyor:
I've spent the last few minutes "thumbs up"ping pro-NDP comments there (and writing a few of my own) - I recommend you do so as well. As an aside, I noticed that a lot of my spin-cutting comments (especially on the Star) seem to doing quite well with "thumbs up" (moreso than usual). Daresay I that there is a positive air about the NDP with the public right now?
Thu, 2011-04-14 01:45
#109
Thu, 2011-04-14 01:54
#110
16% nationally is terrible in most of the country if 20% is in Quebec-- this means the party is low in most of the places it has seats. If things do not improve it could be a disaster.
That's a point that I made earlier on about having a bad feeling about this election based upon some personal anecdotal evidence. And this Toronto Star article on Burnaby Douglas seems to re-inforce same. I hope it's not the case.
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/974296--walkom-in-b-...
Thu, 2011-04-14 03:00
#111
Leave it to New Dems to sh*t all over good news. Do you honestly believe anything written in the Toronto Star? After Iggy's disastrous performance in the English debate (and it was disastrous - the disappointment was visible on Mansbridge's face immediately after), they feel the need to kick their shilling into high gear as a last-ditch attempt to salvage Iggy's campaign. The only memorable quote from the debate was "if you don't show up for work you can't get promoted," and it will be oft-repeated until E-day.
Ekos shows us soaring in BC (and if you don't believe those numbers, other polls show us inching up amonst key demographics). We'll hold Burnaby-Douglas, and pick up a few more BC seats to boot.
I honestly believe the Central Campaign's strategy from day one was to keep low-key in English Canada to slip under the radar while shoring up the Quebec support. It would not have done us much good to attract notice too early and have the Star and the Globe set the Lib-shilling to 11 from day 1. Our exclusive targeting of the Cons for the first half set us up as against them. The target is now the do-nothing Liberals, and Jack was able to inflict the damage before they have a chance to spin it. The campaign starts now!
PS: Before I get some Polyanna accusing me of hating Canada and wanting a Harper majority, let me say this: a weak NDP means a Harper majority, point blank. In 1988 we had 10 seats in Saskatchewan, the Tories 4. Now there are 13 tories, 1 Liberal. The Liberal vote throughout the prairies keeps nearly a dozen Tories in office election after election. In BC we had 19/32 seats, today the Tories have 21/34, same story with the Liberal vote.
Even if the Liberals lose seats to the Tories in BC, a flatlined Liberal Party means 5 times that number of NDPers beat Conservatives. There are only 3 bona fide Liberal-Tory races in BC (Van-South, Van-Quadra and North Van), the rest are either 3-way races, safe Tory, safe NDP or Tory-NDP swing. If Ujjal Dosanjh goes down to the Tories...SO WHAT? There could as many as 10 more New Democrats and 9 less Tories in return!
A strong NDP in Quebec allows MORE Liberals to slip up the middle - there is no risk of Tories winning (outside Quebec City suburbs they HATE Tories).
In the Maritimes there are as many Tory-NDP swingers as Tory-Liberal swingers (how do you think Dexter won).
The only place an argument for strategic voting might make sense is in Ontario (though with the Tories now holding more than 50 seats there, I'd question how well that's working). That said, most of the races in Toronto (where the Liberals hold 30+ seats) have zero danger of electing a Conservative.
Beyond that, while Harper is an A1-Class dick, he is not Satan. Canada will not be hell on earth just because the Liberals' Great White-Russian Hope, His Arrogance, the Right Not-So-Honourable Count Ignatieff is not PM.
SO STOP ALL THE WORRYING AND LET'S GET MORE NEW DEMOCRATS ELECTED!
Thu, 2011-04-14 03:22
#112
In the Maritimes there are as many Tory-NDP swingers as Tory-Liberal swingers (how do you think Dexter won).
In the the last election there were 12 seats with a <20% gap between Liberals & Conservatives. How many seats with a <20% gap between the NDP & Conservatives? One
Thu, 2011-04-14 03:36
#113
In the Maritimes there are as many Tory-NDP swingers as Tory-Liberal swingers (how do you think Dexter won).
In the the last election there were 12 seats with a <20% gap between Liberals & Conservatives. How many seats with a <20% gap between the NDP & Conservatives? One
Not seats, voters! In the last provincial election in NS, Dexter's win came disproportionately from disaffected Conservatives - the Liberal vote held quite steady. The same pattern emerged in NL from the ABC campaign federally in 2008. Now it may be presumptuous of me to suggest that we can extrapolate those patterns to the seats in NB or PE (all 14 of them!!!), but I'm going to anyway.
And as for the NDP-Lib races or the 3-way races in the Maritimes, are you suggesting the NDP should lay off those out of the goodness of our hearts? If so, might I suggest the Liberals bugger off in Trinity-Spadina, London-Fanshawe, Sault Ste Marie and Burnaby-Douglas (where a Tory has a decent chance of defeating an ND), and _especially_ places like Sask-Rosetown-Biggar.
The problem with the vote "strategically"/"smart"/whatever-they're-calling-it-this-time strategy of the Liberals (and their apologists) is that it isn't and never was about defeating Tories, it's always about helping Liberals. Now I won't hold that against the Liberals, but when they criticize the NDP for pushing its own fortunes (and in a way that is usually far more strategically targeted at the Tories), my only response is F*** *FF!
Thu, 2011-04-14 03:55
#114
In the Maritimes there are as many Tory-NDP swingers as Tory-Liberal swingers (how do you think Dexter won).
In the the last election there were 12 seats with a <20% gap between Liberals & Conservatives. How many seats with a <20% gap between the NDP & Conservatives? One
Not seats, voters! In the last provincial election in NS, Dexter's win came disproportionately from disaffected Conservatives - the Liberal vote held quite steady. The same pattern emerged in NL from the ABC campaign federally in 2008. Now it may be presumptuous of me to suggest that we can extrapolate those patterns to the seats in NB or PE (all 14 of them!!!), but I'm going to anyway.
Yes, when you're talking voters, it is especially true in St. John's, Newfoundland where there is a traditional anti-Liberal vote that sometimes switches to the NDP.
Thu, 2011-04-14 08:35
#115
Boom Boom
Back to Nanos again...
The first night after the leaders' English debate has the Conservatives with an 8 point advantage over the Liberals and the NDP trending up to 18.3% support nationally. Support for the Tories stands at 38.9% followed by the Liberals at 31.1%, the NDP at 18.3%, the BQ at 7.5% and the Green Party at 3.1% nationally.
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the three day rolling average of the Nanos Nightly Tracking ending on April 12th (n=1,200; committed voters only n=989). *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters (n=1,201).
Canada (n=1019 committed voters)
Conservative 38.9% (-1.0)
Liberal 31.1% (+0.7)
NDP 18.3% (+2.0)
Bloc Quebecois 7.5% (-1.6)
Green 3.1% (-0.7)
*Undecided 15.2% (-2.5)
The next Nanos should be interesting - after the French language debate, will the BQ recover?
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