~
Issues Pages:
Federal Polling - April 14
Thu, 2011-04-14 08:56
#1
Federal Polling - April 14
Thu, 2011-04-14 09:03
#3
The Fall of the House of Harper.
http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/projections.php
Seat projections.
Conservatives-126
Liberals-95
NDP-42
BQ-45
If these projections are accurate then Harper is finished. The NPD and Liberals will have enough combined seats to form the dreaded coalition and impose "Socialism" on Canada(cue sinister organ music).
Thu, 2011-04-14 09:09
#4
Boom Boom
If these projections are accurate then Harper is finished. The NPD and Liberals will have enough combined seats to form the dreaded coalition and impose "Socialism" on Canada(cue sinister organ music).
I can live with that! 
ETA: Incorrect, your post made my day. Thanks!
Thu, 2011-04-14 09:14
#5
You will have to remove Iggy for that, he will fight any roll for Jack in government tooth and nail.
Thu, 2011-04-14 09:16
#6
Boom Boom
I don't give a fig how it happens.... just make it happen!
Thu, 2011-04-14 09:21
#7
You will have to remove Iggy for that, he will fight any roll for Jack in government tooth and nail.
Whether NDP members sit in cabinet or merely provide support in parliament is unimportant. Their assistance will be necessary for the Liberals to retain power, and they can influence policy significantly. I would prefer to see NDP members participate with cabinet portfolios. I doubt many Canadians would oppose such an arrangement.
Thu, 2011-04-14 09:36
#8
Arthur Cramer
If their is a coalition, I predict right now, the Libs will not give the New Dems anything in cabinet, and will spend lots of time trying to figure out how to set up the NDP for losses in the next election. The Libs don't care in the least about governing. They care about 1 thing and 1 thing only, power.
I am telling you I have seen the scenario before and I know how it ends. Don't hold your breath folks. Iggy wants a Lib majority, and that is ALL HE CARES ABOUT!
Thu, 2011-04-14 10:02
#9
Arthur Cramer
Based on the polls of Quebecors from last night, and I will be honest, I did not watch the debate I am ready to call the election as I see it will go, I think the Libs are the winners. Iggy did well enough to solidify the Lib vote, and even though Jack did well, it won't help enough. Don't expect any breatkthroughs in Quebec. We'll probably keep our one seat, but that is all, and I think Iggy will be even more insufrable. As for the Prairies, New Dems keep all current seats, but that is all. No breatkthough in Saskatchewan. They'll keep the Alberta seat, and may pick up a couple of seats in BC.
The debates were curical, Iggy did good enough, and Jack didn't do good enough. Anyone disagree? I think 25 - 30 New Dems. This isn't going to go well. Probably a Lib minority; can you say Prime Minister Ignatieff?
And yes, Winnipeg North is going to be stuck with Kevin Lamoureux forever. Man are people stupid! I am about ready to give up.
Thu, 2011-04-14 10:03
#10
remind
And not to mention that even if the Liberals and NDP are both feeling at least intact, the more true that is, the more the Bloc may seem them in government as more dangerous to their health than propping up Harper for a few more years.
You know, I do not believe Liberal and Bloc voters when they say they hate Harper and his government. The people they voted for have kept him in power and able to do the things he has done. But yet they wanna still keep on voting for them and see apparently nothing wrong with their discontinuity of; thought actions and allegedly progressive beliefs.
Thu, 2011-04-14 10:10
#11
For what its woth Art, I disagree with just about every item you brought up. [Either flat out disagree, or find the point irrelevant/misleading.]
Thu, 2011-04-14 10:12
#12
Seat projections.
Conservatives-126
Liberals-95
NDP-42
BQ-45
If these projections are accurate then Harper is finished. The NPD and Liberals will have enough combined seats to form the dreaded coalition
I put near zero stock in any seat projections. So I'm just quoting this as a question should an outcome like this, or close to it, be the election outcome.
Lets look insread at:
Conservatives-130
Liberals-80
NDP-52
BQ-46
Or...
Conservatives-128
Liberals-78
NDP-54
BQ-48
The point being that if it was just a matter of the NDP and Liberals having enough seats to get the job done, these scenarios qualify just as well. But the weaker the Liberal result, the more it throws in doubt that they will want to play with others.
Let alone the scenario if the Liberal seat total drops some.
And not to mention that even if the Liberals and NDP are both feeling at least intact, the more true that is, the more the Bloc may see them in government as more dangerous to their health than propping up Harper for a few more years.
Thu, 2011-04-14 10:13
#13
Arthur Cramer
@KenS:
I always take everything you say seriously, and frankly, I think you are always very inciteful. I hope you are right. I am not trying to be misleading, and honestly I don't know what you mean. Could you expand on that a bit? I would really like to be wrong but my gut tells me otherwise.
Thu, 2011-04-14 10:14
#14
Seat projections.
Conservatives-126
Liberals-95
NDP-42
BQ-45
If these projections are accurate then Harper is finished. The NPD and Liberals will have enough combined seats to form the dreaded coalition
I put near zero stock in any seat projections. So I'm just quoting this as a question should an outcome like this, or close to it, be the election outcome.
Lets look insread at:
Conservatives-130
Liberals-80
NDP-52
BQ-46
Or...
Conservatives-128
Liberals-78
NDP-54
BQ-48
The point being that if it was just a matter of the NDP and Liberals having enough seats to get the job done, these scenarios qualify just as well. But the weaker the Liberal result, the more it throws in doubt that they will want to play with others.
Let alone the scenario if the Liberal seat total drops some.
And not to mention that if the Liberals and NDP are both feeling strong enough to not worry about governing together- the more true that is, the more likely the Bloc will see them in government as more dangerous to their health than propping up Harper for a few more years.
Thu, 2011-04-14 10:57
#15
And not to mention that if the Liberals and NDP are both feeling strong enough to not worry about governing together- the more true that is, the more likely the Bloc will see them in government as more dangerous to their health than propping up Harper for a few more years.
[/quote]
The BQ has a vested interest in making Canada look like it cannot deliver value to Quebecers. A Harper government is actually a good thing for the BQ, as it is so out of touch with Quebec values. It contributes to their sense of isolation. A Liberal and NDP government is more in line with Quebec values, and therefore may be a target for a BQ campaign aimed at destabilizing it. I don't want to sound like Steprhen Harper here, but we should keep in mind that the BQ does have a separatist agenda, even if it's left of center positions are in line with the Liberals and in particular with the NDP.
On the other hand, the BQ is now under pressure from the NDP in Quebec, so perhaps they will have an incentive to show that they can cooperate with the government to bring home the goods, rather than just playing on Quebec nationalist sentiment. This may encourage them to support the coalition, at least for a while. The strength of the NDP is really changing the dynamic of politics in Quebec. Perhaps they can someday displace the BQ and become what the Quebec Liberal wing used to be, a base of strength for a center left Federalism to counterbalance Conservative strength in the West.
Thu, 2011-04-14 11:06
#16
The NDP may not want a coalition-- might prefer to be in opposition even with an Accord not to bring them down so they can still distinguish the difference. It will come to seats.
If the parties are more equal in seats then a coalition is more useful to the NDP.
For the Liberals the same is true. If the Liberals do well enough for Ignatieff to stay on he won't want a coalition and he won't break that promise but if the Liberals and NDP are closer in seats Ignatieff is finished and so is the Coalition promise because a new leader will not be held to it.
In other words Ignatieff's no coalition promise was risk free becuase if the Liberals would need a coalition, he will be gone anyway.
Thu, 2011-04-14 11:11
#17
Only the most die hard liberals think Iggy won. He was on the wrong side side on Afgsnistan, he dcrewed over Trudaeu, which would would be like Jack attacking Tommy douglas, ect...
The Ipsos poll on the French debate supports this. Gilles got first, while Jack got a strong second which in aiggy got only 15% while Steven ended up in fourth. It is what has got the msm so pissed off it wasn't one of there poster boy that was in contension
Thu, 2011-04-14 11:14
#18
They also said the NDP boost is not fully reported since this is a rolling survey. Will be more obvious tomorrow.
Thu, 2011-04-14 11:15
#19
Also if the NDP beats the liberals in Quebec even if just in popular vote, you need not worry about Iggy, the knives will come out and Iggy will be back at Harvard writing a book about it all.
Thu, 2011-04-14 11:17
#20
None of this matters until election day, and all of it can change long before then. I think the best attitude is to think like a Conservative majority is the likely outcome and work like hell to make sure it doesn't happen.
Mopping our brows and thinking we have dodged a bullet because of one seat projection is a bad, bad mistake. If anything it lights a fire under the Harperites and makes them work harder.
Remember that two elections ago it was the assumption that Harper would get a majority that turned things around in the other way.
Thu, 2011-04-14 11:20
#21
Globe reporting NDP surge post debate. Here is my Tweet on that.
@seanfordyce : G&M reporting NDP surge in post-debate poll. Page won't load. Link reports internal error. I am sure this is accidental. Real sure. Honest.
@globepolitics then posted: Note to readers: We're working to fix some technical site issues. Thanks in advance for your patience, we'll keep you posted.
My reply: @globepolitics All other links working fine. Lightning strikes where you most want it. If you were less biased it would be easier to beleive.
Anyway the page that won't load says NDP went up 4 points since Friday and Liberals were stagnant.
Thu, 2011-04-14 11:22
#22
knownothing
There's no way, after the debates, that Harper gets his majority. Now is our chance to crush the Liberals and overtake them as the alternative on the Left.
Thu, 2011-04-14 11:30
#23
There's no way, after the debates, that Harper gets his majority. Now is our chance to crush the Liberals and overtake them as the alternative on the Left.
Yeah, just what we need to shift the focus and lull us off to sleep.
The only thing that is sure is that this means Harper is going to push HARDER. I am just wondering if he is going to get so desparate that he pulls a stadium and an HST deal out of his back pocket.
There is still plenty of time for a game-changer.
Thu, 2011-04-14 11:33
#24
Too late -- people won't beleive him.
Thu, 2011-04-14 11:34
#25
Globe link working now get it while you can:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/ndp-surges-...
Thu, 2011-04-14 12:18
#26
Also if the NDP beats the liberals in Quebec even if just in popular vote, you need not worry about Iggy, the knives will come out and Iggy will be back at Harvard writing a book about it all.
I doubt that it will lead to Ignatieff's demise. The NDP strength in Quebec will only push the Liberals to work hard to regain their traditional strength there. If the Liberals are in government they will do their best to accomplish this, undermining both the Bloc Quebecoise and the NDP in the process. In the meantime Ignatieff will be secure as Liberal leader because he will be a sitting Prime Minister. Why would the Liberals depose him when he is the occupant of 24 Sussex Drive?
The sharpest knives that will come out after this election will be pointed at Stephen Harper, as he will soon lose power in an ensuing parliamentary vote.
Thu, 2011-04-14 12:23
#27
Malcolm
@KenS:
. . . I think you are always very inciteful . . .
Freudian, but accurate. Though Ken is always insightful as well.
Thu, 2011-04-14 12:30
#28
My latest twitter follow up
G&M headline on French debate all about Harper who was almost a non-factor in debate. Don't you think that looks biased?
then
Don't read the Globe's politics coverage in the can - you'll be confused about which paper to use for which purpose.
I know there are people who might think that is a bit harsh but the Globe deserves it for that one.
Thu, 2011-04-14 12:37
#29
Only the most die hard liberals think Iggy won. He was on the wrong side side on Afgsnistan, he dcrewed over Trudaeu, which would would be like Jack attacking Tommy douglas, ect... The Ipsos poll on the French debate supports this. Gilles got first, while Jack got a strong second which in aiggy got only 15% while Steven ended up in fourth. It is what has got the msm so pissed off it wasn't one of there poster boy that was in contension
That was the Leger poll, the Ipsos poll is here:
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5205
COMPAS will come out with a poll saying 89% thought Harper won the French language debate
Thu, 2011-04-14 12:43
#30
alan smithee
Best thing that can happen is a Liberal/NDP merge with the NDP in a position of policy influence.
I hope these numbers are accurate.
I'm not a drinker but if Harper is no further ahead on May 3,I'll be cracking open the champagne.
Thu, 2011-04-14 13:00
#31
I assume COMPAS will be the official polling company for the Sun News Network once it launches. The Cons will have their own alternate reality.
Thu, 2011-04-14 13:50
#32
remind
cramer that was a link to bekayne's profile
Thu, 2011-04-14 13:51
#33
I don't know what you are smoking acramer, but it must be powerful. All the polls are reporting upswings for the NDP and that Layton did very, very well in the debates. Go outside, talk to people, stop listening to a media narrative that is pure fantasy.
Thu, 2011-04-14 14:12
#34
4 million people watched the entire debate -- 10 million watched at least some of it.
Only 13 million voted last time.
I was pessimistic after seeing the garbage out of the media but feel differently now that I know howm many actually saw the debate for themselves. That is a heck of a lot of people with first hand impressions. There is at least some hope some of those millions can think for themselves.
That much interest should tell you something else as well-- some of the millions who did not vote last time must be considering
Thu, 2011-04-14 14:16
#35
I was pessimistic after seeing the garbage out of the media but feel differently now that I know howm many actually saw the debate for themselves. That is a heck of a lot of people with first hand impressions. There is at least some hope some of those millions can think for themselves.
That much interest should tell you something else as well-- some of the millions who did not vote last time must be considering
Good observations, Sean.
Harper and his team have been trying to discourage intereest and depress the vote since before the election call, because, naturally, an informed and motivated electorate is their worst nightmare. I'm becoming hopeful that it's coming true.
Thu, 2011-04-14 14:27
#36
Arthur Cramer
@bekayne
and everyone else. This is why I think the NDP is in trouble. Did Iggy do well enough to change things? Doesn't it look like it and spell big trouble for the NDP?
Sorry, fixed
Thu, 2011-04-14 14:28
#37
Boom Boom
Sean - probably the same number of people watched the debates last time, and you know how that election turned out.
Thu, 2011-04-14 14:32
#38
Too late -- people won't beleive him.
I don't have time to pull down Warren Kinsella's book (don't worry, I didn't pay for it) and find the quote from the American campaign manager who said no one ever lost an election by underestimating the intelligence of the electorate, but it is in part true.
And the fact that Harper has already been able to impress voters by making promises that won't happen until after the NEXT election, and maybe never, says to me that there are a lot of gullible people out there.
And when you throw hockey into the mix, all sense goes out the window.
I think this speculation about what one day's polling might mean, or what might happen after the election is dangerous. For now, the only important thing is the fact that Harper is WAY ahead, and to keep your eye on the ball. For all the insults we throw at Harper, I am pretty sure his crew are staying with the game, because they are very good at it, and they have a lot of money behind them.
Thu, 2011-04-14 14:34
#39
Arthur Cramer
I just want to put my fingers in my ears, cover my eyes, and, sing lah, lah, lah!
Thu, 2011-04-14 14:57
#40
4 million people watched the entire debate -- 10 million watched at least some of it.
Only 13 million voted last time.
...and i think that 4 million figure is just the estimated audience for the English debate. We don't yet know how many people watched the French debate.
Thu, 2011-04-14 15:02
#41
Sean - probably the same number of people watched the debates last time, and you know how that election turned out.
Actually no-- I heard it was a record both in the number who tuned in and the number who stuck it through to the end.
Thu, 2011-04-14 15:06
#42
Boom Boom
Okay, well we'll see if it made a difference, eh?
Thu, 2011-04-14 15:06
#43
How odd that it is a record number.
I wonder if it is some kind of counter-intuitive thing? Like, maybe, that it is true that people are even more uninspired than usual.... but they still care in that incohate and incosistent way people do even when they diss on the whole thing... and since they have even less grasp than usual of even the basic elements of what is going on, decided to tune in.
Something like that.
Thu, 2011-04-14 15:15
#44
welder
I assume COMPAS will be the official polling company for the Sun News Network once it launches. The Cons will have their own alternate reality.
lol
"I reject your reality and substitute my own!"
Thu, 2011-04-14 15:19
#45
Boom Boom
Maybe it was a record number because the country is waking up (finally) and saying they want an alternative to Harper?
I suspect it's "everything goes" as of today. Could be a fascinating race to the finish line.
Thu, 2011-04-14 15:24
#46
knownothing
Yes I also feel there is lots of evidence to suggest voter turnout is going to be much higher this election and mostly because of a youth vote
Thu, 2011-04-14 15:27
#47
welder
Maybe it was a record number because the country is waking up (finally) and saying they want an alternative to Harper?
I suspect it's "everything goes" as of today. Could be a facinating race to the finish line.
I think a few things are at play...
1.Some people wanted to kick the tires around Ignatieff.He's been ripped to shreds by Con attack adds for over a year.This may have backfired on the Con's because all Ignatieff had to do is show up and not drool on himself to look good because the Con's set expectations of him so low.
Unlike some of the ideologues here,I don't think his performance in either debate was horrible,it just was'nt great and that'swhat he needed...So in that he did "fail"...
2.I think the ethical questions about Harpers government are starting to hit home and the the Bruce Carson/Jets(do ya' think their might be a kickback scheme that comes out within a year on that one?)/G8/G20 Porkapaloooza/Contempt of Parliament are beginning to gain traction with voters.
3.The important swing voters,like myself,who are not beholden to any party are really starting to pay attention...
What will be interesting is the voter turnout on election day.That's usually a very good baraometer on how engaged the electorate is,or,at least how angry they are...
Thu, 2011-04-14 15:35
#48
Ignatieff performed much better in the French debate than the English one. He was more relaxed and comfortable and came across as more articulate. As Andrew Coyne said last night, Ignatieff probably wishes he could have done that in the English debate.
But regardless of what the election results are, Ignatieff will still likely be replaced as leader. He has too much baggage and has been too damaged by Conservative attack ads from the past 2 years. And while he is communicating to the public better than he used to, he is never going to be able to become the natural at it that Layton is, or that guys like Chretien were.
Thu, 2011-04-14 16:18
#50
Malcolm
Calm down, Krago. Leadership numbers will virtually always show the incumbent ahead. Nothing makes one look like a Prime Minister more effectively than actually being the Prime Minister.
Thu, 2011-04-14 16:22
#51
Pogo
I am thinking that Harpers rope-a-dope campaign designed to reduce turnout is going to fail. The biggest success may not be any of the political parties but the youth voting campaigns. Let's hope they succeed and start to fix the mess that my generation has created.