Federal Polling - April 14

I think the Conservative party's use of Facebook as a screening tool caught the attention of young voters.  It's something they can react to, and not related to any particular policy or ideology. It is universally offensive, even a little distrurbing. 

alan smithee wrote:

Lens Solution wrote:

 

But regardless of what the election results are, Ignatieff will still likely be replaced as leader.  He has too much baggage and has been too damaged by Conservative attack ads from the past 2 years.  And while he is communicating to the public better than he used to, he is never going to be able to become the natural at it that Layton is, or that guys like Chretien were.

I agree,Iggy is done.

But it doesn't matter who they replace him with,the Reform Party will continue with relentless attack ads.

It's time for the Liberals and/or NDP and/or Bloc to invest money into the same strategy.

The 'conservatives' openly revealed that they were going through 'hundreds of hours' of video for attack ads against Ignatieff within days of him becoming the new Liberal leader.

There is an unprecented and unlimited abundance of footage to attack the cons with.

Play their game,regardless of how much of the party's war chest you have to spend because attacking the CRAAP/Reform/Conservative/Republican party would be a piece of cake.

I'm sure the Cons will indeed attack all future leaders of other parties as much as they can, but in the case of Ignatieff, he was particularly vulnerable because of all the things he has written and said in the past as an academic and professor, and because he lived outside of Canada for so long.  The Liberals made a foolish mistake when they picked him as their leader.  Next time I assume they will be smart enough to pick a leader who has not lived outside of the US or been a Harvard professor.  There won't be as much for the Cons to attack next time.

New BC federal poll - Mustel

Con: 42%

Lib: 25%

NDP: 24%

Grn: 9%

http://www.mustelgroup.com/pdf/20110414.pdf

Well I guess we do the best we can and if Canadians want to reward that abomination of a PM with another mandate then they will get what they deserve. Hard to stop a group stupid. Maybe people need to have more pain before they realize how bad this is.

Mustel is often accurate.  During an election, a poll conducted over a 2-week period at the start of a campaign up to and not including the debates probably is not as accurate as one done the same way outside of an election period.  I would not trust this poll.

During the debate, Harper asked for a majority.  This will cause many Liberal voters to switch to the NDP in those ridings where the Liberals are not perceived to have a chance and the NDP does.  Similarly, in other ridings (not just in BC but throughout other parts of English Canada as well), many NDP voters will switch to the Liberals in ridings where the NDP does not have a chance.

While I would never change my vote from the NDP, I know many people who do not want a Conservative majority so badly that they will vote to make sure it does not happen.

Thanks.  I am not sure how active I will be in the campaign here.  I went canvassing one night with our candidate and I think it looks pretty good.  But, re-electing an NDP candidate in a swing riding like the Western Arcitic is no guaranteed thing.  I am more confident than last election.  I've not been well for a couple of years now.  I was off work for almost a year and then had an operation six weeks ago.  I seem to be recovering.

Hope all is well with you.

Garth

acramer wrote:

Based on the polls of Quebecors from last night, and I will be  honest, I did not watch the debate I am ready to call the election as I see it will go, I think the Libs are the winners. Iggy did well enough to solidify the Lib vote, and even though Jack did well, it won't help enough. Don't expect any breatkthroughs in Quebec. We'll probably keep our one seat, but that is all, and I think Iggy will be even more insufrable. As for the Prairies, New Dems keep all current seats, but that is all. No breatkthough in Saskatchewan. They'll keep the Alberta seat, and may pick up a couple of seats in BC.

The debates were curical, Iggy did good enough, and Jack didn't do good enough. Anyone disagree? I think 25 - 30 New Dems. This isn't going to go well. Probably a Lib minority; can you say Prime Minister Ignatieff?

And yes, Winnipeg North is going to be stuck with Kevin Lamoureux forever. Man are people stupid! I am about ready to give up.

Cramer, I would agree with the others who say that the NDP has potential to do very well this time around. I know it's hard being in Manitoba, with an NDP government the public feels is beyond its "best before" date and watching the NDP machine blow 2 consecutive Winnipeg elections it should have won. It's unfortunate, it's just the way things are swinging in Manitoba at the moment. You know what that's done to me? It has strengthened my reslove to want to see Harper defeated because that means the majority of Manitoba's MPs will be on the wrong side of government, and that will shake up the public.

By the way, I would also like to join my voice in welcoming Garth back to babble.

Dennis is running against an ex-Premier and a former MLA/Cabinet Minister.  The ex-Premier is running for the Liberals though he is known to have had Conservative connections.  He has some baggage that comes with him in respect to a bridge being built (related to contract awards) and has promised to re-open the recently signed Devolution Agreement with the federal government.  He also is saying that he will vote to retain the long gun registry.  The bridge issue and the devolution agreement position is not popular with the non-aboriginal population and gun control is not at all popular with anyone living in the bush.  Still, he is the only aboriginal candidate and that will win him the votes of many aboriginal people. I expect him to do well outside of Yellowknife.

The Conservative candidate has been a well-known Liberal for many years.  She was the campaign manager for the former Liberal MP. There are many Conservatives, particularly those in Hay River (whose mayor was interested in the nomination prior to her appointment as the candidate), who do not like the idea of a Liberal having the Conservative nomination.  She was also the Health Minister  in the Territorial government and recently tried to reduce health benefits for seniors (which is still remembered and is losing her votes).  She is not as well-liked as the previous Conservative candidate though she certainly does of her own following.  I expect her to finish second in Yellowknife but do not think she can win the riding because I do not anticipate her getting much support outside of the capital city.

I expect Dennis to win here in Yellowknife.  I also expect him to win Fort Smith (his home town) handily and I expect him to win Hay River by more votes than the last time.  The rest of the riding would be pure guess work on my part.   Overall, I think he will win by more than last time.  However, the election is still weeks away and any NDP candidate who does not work up until the end of an election campaign in a swing riding like this one will have a lot of trouble winning.

The At issue panel even said the NDP is doing very well and could replace the liberals a s official opp. Thoough I didn't see a single poll. But the thing that struck me was they said, THE NDP has defied the media narative and its looking like a 3 party race and at a minimum a horse race for second.

It is interesting to note that they acknowledged their own culpability in framing the NDP as a non party, yet people are now looking past that. Like mentioned upthread, this election feels a little different knowing so many people watched. If as little as 5% of non voters picked up the NDP and everything else stayed the same for shear volumn of votes it would mean a lot swing ridings changing hands-depedning on where mind you .

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Cramer, I would agree with the others who say that the NDP has potential to do very well this time around. I know it's hard being in Manitoba, with an NDP government the public feels is beyond its "best before" date and watching the NDP machine blow 2 consecutive Winnipeg elections it should have won. It's unfortunate, it's just the way things are swinging in Manitoba at the moment. 

Shades of 1988 all over again...

thorin_bane wrote:

The At issue panel even said the NDP is doing very well and could replace the liberals a s official opp. Thoough I didn't see a single poll. But the thing that struck me was they said, THE NDP has defied the media narative and its looking like a 3 party race and at a minimum a horse race for second.

 

It is interesting to note that they acknowledged their own culpability in framing the NDP as a non party, yet people are now looking past that. Like mentioned upthread, this election feels a little different knowing so many people watched. If as little as 5% of non voters picked up the NDP and everything else stayed the same for shear volumn of votes it would mean a lot swing ridings changing hands-depedning on where mind you .

that the NDP could never win seats in Quebec was the lynch pin of the critics arguements and that the NDP has a seat and is in second place in many polls in Quebec, strongly so in some, that lynch pin is out the window. So those that still say that the ndp can't win sound desperate now, because the ndp has already defied their expectations of what it can achieve. Don't let them tell you it can't be done.

The panel must of seen the latest Quebec ekos numbers showing the NDP nipping on the the bloc and placing the libs and cons in the dust..compound that with the fact that the NDP enjoy modest support nation wide with the libs just enjoying the east and a few lone western seats..spells the end of the libs..and that was before the debates that Jack did so good on....I can't wait to see next weeks poll.

The big danger everyone seemed to be worried about is if this will mean a harper majority if libs run from their sinking ship to the cons...or will they swim left?

Now wouldn't that be something if the cons are forced to contemplate a coalition to stop an NDP minority ....I think the ads the libs are running are helping the NDP shhhhh.......Nothing gets peoples attention ..especially the old ones than the sound of a medical device making the flat line tone...

The cons are slipping nation wide also. More flatlines and mediscare please....remember the big supporter of the cons are the seniors.....and there probably thinking..to hell with cons and terrorism..and kissing yank ass...I aint paying $ 100 a beep...not enough royaltys coming from the oil companies ( pumps on land) to cover that privatized health care cost...the gun lobby is probably thinking along the lines of the only bang they will be hearing is the bang of the axe ..amputating there trigger finger cause they can't afford the couple hundred thousand it will take to fix it.....now there is an ad!!!

When it comes to second choices, nation wide ..it looks like the NDP walks away with that prize also..so that's telling me..when the voter does decide to switch they aren't going to switch to the cons or libs but to the NDP......

.

The NDP needs to go after all the seats they don't have, that is Libs seats, Cons seats, and Bloc seats. 

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So both the Cons and the Libs are down, and the Bloc and the NDP are up

Nanos Research 3 day poll (Apr 12, 13, & 14)

Party / Apr 13 / Apr 14 / Change

Cons - 38.9% / 38.7% / Down 0.2%

Libs - 31.1% / 28.8% / Down 2.3%

NDP - 18.3% / 18.6% / Up 0.3%, and just gained 2.6% on the Liberals overnite

Bloc - 7.5% / 9.0% / Up 1.5%

Grn - 3.1% / 3.7% / Up 0.6%

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110414-BallotE.pdf

NorthReport wrote:

Nanos Research 3 day poll (Apr 12, 13, & 14)

Party / Apr 13 / Apr 14 / Change

Cons - 38.9% / 38.7% / Down 0.2%

Libs - 31.1% / 28.8% / Down 2.3%

NDP - 18.3% / 18.6% / Up 0.3%, and just gained 2.6% on the Liberals overnite

Bloc - 7.5% / 9.0% / Up 1.5%

Grn - 3.1% / 3.7% / Up 0.6%

Just to put things into perspective, before Jack & Olivia start picking out new furniture for Stornoway, this just brings the NDP up a notch from where they were in 2008.  The trend-line looks good, but claims of Liberal collapse are premature.

Comparing these latest results to 2008, we have Cons +1.0, Libs +2.3, NDP +0.4, Bloc -1.0, Greens -3.1.

If nothing else, this soundly disproves Paul Wells' claim that "Cons always gain 5 points during the campaign; Libs always lose 5".  That was always a crock, but that never stopped certain members of this board from repeating it ad nauseam.

I dont buy Wells' dictum either, but if it was going to happen, there is no reason to expect to see signs now- and they might not be apparent until the near the end of campaign polls.

And since we're talking about perspective- I think referring to claims of a Liberal collapse are overstated. What we have here are a couple or some people rather transparently egging on a hoped for collapse.

By the way:

I personally don't put any truck in signs. Especially here in my riding because the Libs and certain members of communities put pressure on other people to put up signs. But this morning, I saw a sign on the lawn of neighbour who lives across the street from me for Beckie Blakie. I live on a major throughfare with a wide boulevard. The sign my neighbour had was even bigger then my big sign.

What is more remarkable is that in 15 years living on this street, I have NEVER seen a sign on his lawn. My wife says it is a reflection of people's regret at staying home during the by-election on election night. She thinks people are feeling resolved to go to the polls to prevent it  happening again.  I must admit, it makes me feel a little more hopeful.

During the English debate, Harper asks for a majority.  I think that will cause more strategic voting in English Canada than in the last election to prevent that from happening. This will lead to the NDP going up in the polls in those parts of the country where there are NDP incumbents.  However, it will cause it to go down where the NDP is viewed as being not competitive.  This should cause the NDP vote to appear to shrink in the last couple of days in the campaign as we only have incumbents in about 10% of the ridings and are viewed as competitive in about 10% more.

I do not know the dynamic of the situation in Quebec which seems to be different.  Jack is acting like the NDP support is concentrated around Montreal.  If that is the case, there might be some surprises on election night.

I do not much care for Nanos polls because one night can cause big movement when there really isn't any movement at all.  I can anticipate what will happen some days because of bad "nights" for a party.  The NDP had a bad night three nights ago so expect an increase tomorrow.  But, there was an excellent night two nights ago, so expect a drop the following day (unless there is another night when the NDP shows up at 22%). 

I look forward to the Ekos poll today though I usually distrust the company because its connections to the Liberal Party makes it difficult to view them as unbiased.  I expect they will try to set it up so that it looks likes there is Liberal momentum in the final week.

Wells is claim is like claiming because you rolled doubles in gammon twice that you are sure to do it again.

There were sound and well know explanations for those moves and people need to pay attention to those because there is no guarantee of a repeat unless the same dynamic happens. I especially dislike the idea of putting a specific number on it.

That said there is a dynamic that does happen to both Liberals and Conservatives. They control the English language airwaves up till the debate. The NDP is out of it. At that point the NDP has a chance of breaking in especially if many watch the debate. Both big parties are vulnerable but the Liberals perhaps more so to the NDP taking back votes lost due to its previous invisibility. Still to try to quantify this is bogus. It all depends to how close to the Liberals core their vote was when they started and how poor their performance is in the campaign.

As well there are other dynamics at work. The revulsion with what the Cons are doing which can help the Liberals and problems with the Liberals that can help the NDP at Liberal expense. People too often when they oversimplify in politics assume there is one dynamic at work when there may be several. Liberals can gain or lose to Conservatives at the same time that they are doing the opposite with the NDP. There is the risk of momentum if one dynamic happens before the other but if they are happening at the same time it can cancel each other out and look like the NDP and Cons are exchanging votes which they may or may not be. As well we need to understand the NDP and the Cons in fact do trade votes for many reasons not the least of which is that many voters are not particularly ideological.

Post-debate Forum Research poll:

Cons 36

Libs   25

NDP   22

Bloq   7

Gr       8

Bloq leads NDP in Quebec by only 27 to 23. Other numbers fragmentary.

http://www.hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/view/way_open_of_harper_majority_forum_research_nationwide_poll_04-15-2011

The seat projections attached to that poll are pure speculation now, as it's clear the 2008 results have very little to tell us about where support might be coming from now.

That poll is FANTASTIC. I see their seat projection is as follows:

An analysis of the poll findings showed that if the election were held today, the Conservatives would win 143 Commons seats, the Liberals 76, the Bloc Québécois 45 and the NDP 44.

Of course, I think that they may be low-balling the NDP a tiny bit because its hard to get any seat proejction model to show more than 2 NDP seats in Quebec! I guess it would at least mean a very good chance of the NDP passing the BQ in the seat count.

Look at the regionals for the NDP

Atlantic -
Quebec - 23%
Ontario - 21%, up 4%
Prairies - 24%, up 4%
Alberta
British Columbia

Those numbers don't show a majority and they debunk the Liberals' vote-splitting theory.  The NDP is gaining mostly at the expense of the Tories (especially in BC and Atl).  The Toronto inelligentia just can't seem to get it through their thick skulls that in most of Canada there are a lot of working class people that swing between Conservative and NDP.  It's only urban intellectuals (champagne socialists, if you will) and a few people in the suburbs that swing between Libs and NDP.

I don't buy the Conservative talking point that EKOS/Frank Graves are in the bag for the Liberals.

If there's any polling firm that needs to be questioned, it's NANOS, seeing as they come out with a poll almost every day, with the Conservatives at 90%, Liberals at 4%, NDP 3%, Bloc 2%, Greens 1%.

An exaggeration, but I think some may know what I mean. 

All 3 parties, the Cons, the Libs, and the Bloc will now be in major attack mode against the NDP.