Federal Polling - April 14 | Page 3

Fri, 2011-04-15 14:24

remind

NorthReport wrote:
Look at the regionals for the NDP

Atlantic -
Quebec - 23%
Ontario - 21%, up 4%
Prairies - 24%, up 4%
Alberta
British Columbia

where are the rest?

Fri, 2011-04-15 14:30

#103

NorthReport

I think that's all that was in the article remind, and they don't have anthing posted on their website yet.

Fri, 2011-04-15 14:56

#104

Stockholm

The article did mention that the NDP had increased since last week everywhere except Quebec (where the NDP was already at a sky-high 23%)

Fri, 2011-04-15 15:06

#105

bekayne

New Ekos

http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/15/debates-hold-little-sway-on-voters-ekos-research/

Fri, 2011-04-15 15:17

#106

OnTheLeft

^

EKOS:

Conservatives: 35.3%

Liberals: 27.8%

NDP: 18.0%

Green: 9.6%

Bloc: 7.1%

"The New Democrats are the only ones to improve position during the campaign. The party continues to lead as second choice and is now in a better position than it was at this stage of the 2008 campaign.

The NDP does very well in British Columbia and looks surprisingly strong in Quebec. It is also attracting women's votes. Less auspiciously for its prospects, the party attracts the highest number of voters who would consider changing their minds. It suggests there are a fair number of strategic voters in their ranks who will weigh options until the final stages of the campaign to see how to best frustrate Stephen Harper's aspirations."

Yeah, EKOS is totally in the bag for the Liberals.

Seat projection (in our first-past-the-post horse shit electoral system):

Conservatives: 136

Liberals: 94

NDP: 39

Bloc: 39

Green: 0

http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/

Fri, 2011-04-15 15:18

#107

Policywonk

Winston wrote:

Those numbers don't show a majority and they debunk the Liberals' vote-splitting theory. The NDP is gaining mostly at the expense of the Tories (especially in BC and Atl). The Toronto inelligentia just can't seem to get it through their thick skulls that in most of Canada there are a lot of working class people that swing between Conservative and NDP. It's only urban intellectuals (champagne socialists, if you will) and a few people in the suburbs that swing between Libs and NDP.

A majority is possible with 36%. However I would agree that it is unlikely, given that the Conservatives will waste votes in Alberta and Saskatchewan and not get much in Quebec.

Fri, 2011-04-15 15:23

#108

OnTheLeft

Policywonk wrote:
A majority is possible with 36%.

Only in Canada would this be accepted: that a redneck, ultra-corporatist reactionary party could possibly win a majority government with 36% of the popular vote (36% is still minority territory), despite the majority of the electorate voting against them.

Proportional representation now.

Fri, 2011-04-15 15:25

#109

Fidel

And let's hope the horse shit electoral system denies them by lots and lots of wasted votes for the conservative party. Is that being hypocritical?

Fri, 2011-04-15 15:26

#110

nicky

Ekos uses a chart rather than numbers to present its regional breakdowns. This a little hard to convert into numbers but it seems that the NDP breakthrough in Quebec is confirmed. The Ekos chart indicates the Quebec vote is:

Bloq 28

NDP 24

Libs 23

Cons 18

Gr 7

Fri, 2011-04-15 15:29

#111

OnTheLeft

Fidel wrote:

And let's hope the horse shit electoral system denies them by lots and lots of wasted votes for the conservative party. Is that being hypocritical?

Hundreds of thousands of urban Conservative, rural Liberal and NDP voters also lose big time under first-past-the-post.

Regardless, we would never have to worry about a redneck majority destroying Canada with proportional representation.