Federal polling - April 15

from nicky in the other thread

 

Ekos uses a chart rather than numbers to present its regional breakdowns. This a little hard to convert into numbers but it seems that the NDP breakthrough in Quebec is confirmed. The  Ekos chart indicates the Quebec vote is:

 

Bloq     28

NDP      24

Libs      23

Cons     18

Gr          7

 

NorthReport]</p> <p>Reposting nicky's post from the Forum Research poll in the Hill Times article from the previous thread</p> <p> </p> <p><em>[quote]nicky</em> wrote:</p> <p> </p> <p>Post-debate Forum Research poll:</p> <p>Cons 36</p> <p>Libs   25</p> <p><strong>NDP   22</strong></p> <p>Bloq   7</p> <p>Gr       8</p> <p>Bloq leads <strong>NDP in Quebec</strong> by only 27 to<strong> 23</strong>. Other numbers fragmentary.</p> <p><a href="http://www.hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/view/way_open_of_harper_majority_forum_research_nationwide_poll_04-15-2011">http://www.hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/view/way_open_of_harper_majority_forum_research_nationwide_poll_04-15-2011[/quote</a> wrote:

 

 

Since their first poll at the start of the campaign (actually, their first national poll ever)

Con    -5 

Lib     +1

NDP    +3

Ekos puts the NDP in FIRST place in Greater Montreal !!!!

 

"In the greater Montreal area, however, the poll shows a dramatic shift in support. While the margins of error are significantly higher - up to 12.6 per cent - the Ekos poll suggests the Bloc has dropped from 40.5 per cent to 22.6 per cent - a 17.9 percentage point drop within one week. The chief beneficiary appears to be the NDP which rose from 20.1 per cent before the debates to 30.1 per cent afterwards - putting them in first place.

The Liberals also jumped in Montreal to 25.7 per cent from 17.9 per cent - a 7.8 point jump while the Conservatives inched up to 14.2 per cent from 13.4 per cent, leaving them in fourth place."

These regional polls should be taken with a grain of salt: there were 108 respondents for the Montreal region, which yields a margin of error of 9.4%.

Lens Solution wrote:

It appears that the NDP is taking mainly from the BQ according to this poll - if that's true it could help the Liberals in several Montreal ridings, including Papineau.  If the Liberals have jumped nearly 8 points in Montreal and are ahead of the BQ, it would be interesting to see what the split is.

Meanwhile, it looks like the Cons are still in 4th place in Montreal so they won't be making any breakthroughs.

The Montreal numbers, if correct, would be very low for the Liberals. With them, the Liberals would lose seats. In other words, they are probably wrong.

If the NDP really did start to surge in Montreal and it turned into an Ontario 1990 style wave where people get unexpectedly swept in - the ridings I would look to would be Jeanne-LeBer, Lasalle-Emard (the NDP canddate there sounds fantastic), Rosemont-Petit Patrie and Laurier-Ste. Marie and Westmount-Ville Marie.

There are always good reasons for caution, but that we have some reasonable grounds now to entertain these possibilities for Quebec is exhilarating.

 

To Ekos, what does "Greater Montreal" mean? Does it mean the centre of town out to the East and West Island, or does it also include the Montregie.

In 2008, the Liberals got 33-51% in Montreal and 22% in Montregie (h/t punditsguide.ca)

BQ got 8.7-40% in Montreal and 44% in Montregie

NDP got 12-19% in Montreal and 13% in Montregie

EKOS says: NDP 30%, Lib 26% BQ 23%; these numbers would suggest the NDP is on the verge of a major sweep, hence the need for much skepticism.

It is scary for the BQ -- what if people start to say what the parties cannot-- that a BQ part in the coalition would not be acceptable to many Canadians but if Quebec elects NDP members in enough numbers the Cons are out.

This is a key message-- I would not want the NDP to say it because I find it very sad that the BQ being in a coalition is so unacceptable. I don't like second class MPs and I think that a BQ part in government could lead us to a new arrangement for the country. I'd rather engage them than deny them equality with other MPs.

Stockholm wrote:

If the NDP really did start to surge in Montreal and it turned into an Ontario 1990 style wave where people get unexpectedly swept in - the ridings I would look to would be Jeanne-LeBer, Lasalle-Emard (the NDP canddate there sounds fantastic), Rosemont-Petit Patrie and Laurier-Ste. Marie and Westmount-Ville Marie.

How about Hochelaga?

Anonymouse wrote:

To Ekos, what does "Greater Montreal" mean? Does it mean the centre of town out to the East and West Island, or does it also include the Montregie.

It makes up around 25% of their Quebec sample

Krago wrote:

Have any of you taken a peek at the regional/demographic breakdowns in the EKOS poll?  They are completely ridiculous!  (ETA: Except for Montreal, of course...)

EKOS has the Liberals running fourth in BC, with 31% support among men, but only 11% among women.  Among Ontario voters under 25 years of age, the Tories are leading with 43.7%, with the Liberals 27.1%, Green 15.6% and NDP 8.4%.

Sample size. But I notice that the sample for Alberta was 103 & for B.C. it was 78. Alberta has more people than B.C.? Since when?

bekayne wrote:

Sample size. But I notice that the sample for Alberta was 103 & for B.C. it was 78. Alberta has more people than B.C.? Since when?

Any legitimate pollster will tell you to ignore numbers under a 300 sample size. Only a sample size over 300 will begin to provide any semblance of accuracy. And that's always EXTREMELY important to remember when looking at the numbers from hereon in.

A 78 sample size for BC? Don't even waste your time trying to analyze that.

Three nights ago in the Nanos tracking poll, the NDP had the best night ever.  This night will drop off the poll tomorrow.  I expect that there will be a substantial drop as the 22% will be replaced with an 18% or so.  This is the problem with tracking polls.  Movements day to day can be misleading.  

It is only when there has been a steady increase over a week (as with the NDP over the past week) that one can conclude from a tracking poll that there has been an increase in support.

Personally, I would rather have a poll of 1200 taken on one or two nights than a tracking poll with 300-400 each night.  I believe them to be more accurate if they are not being conducted by a pollster too connected to one party or another.

I have not ran very many riding level campaigns myself, preferring to be out canvassing where I can get the best idea of how a campaign is going.  But, in the two campaigns I have been involved in the management, we did a "push" poll using a script that relates to the dialogue we were hoping would improve the NDP vote over the last two weeks of the campaign.  This serves two purposes.  It gives an indication of whether the plan is a good one and whether we should book our "air time" (radio spots) with the planned script or if we need to develop our own last couple of day pamphlet for delivery.  It also helps to determine which election day strategy should be used.

Great poll from Ekos yesterday

 

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_april_15_2011...

Garth Brasseur wrote:

Three nights ago in the Nanos tracking poll, the NDP had the best night ever.  This night will drop off the poll tomorrow.  I expect that there will be a substantial drop as the 22% will be replaced with an 18% or so.  This is the problem with tracking polls.  Movements day to day can be misleading.  

It is only when there has been a steady increase over a week (as with the NDP over the past week) that one can conclude from a tracking poll that there has been an increase in support.

Personally, I would rather have a poll of 1200 taken on one or two nights than a tracking poll with 300-400 each night.  I believe them to be more accurate if they are not being conducted by a pollster too connected to one party or another.

I have not ran very many riding level campaigns myself, preferring to be out canvassing where I can get the best idea of how a campaign is going.  But, in the two campaigns I have been involved in the management, we did a "push" poll using a script that relates to the dialogue we were hoping would improve the NDP vote over the last two weeks of the campaign.  This serves two purposes.  It gives an indication of whether the plan is a good one and whether we should book our "air time" (radio spots) with the planned script or if we need to develop our own last couple of day pamphlet for delivery.  It also helps to determine which election day strategy should be used.

I'm nervous about this too, given the hysteric analysis of every poll move by the MSM.

Lens Solution wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Nanos Leadership Index

Harper - 105.4, Up 2.1
Layton - 67.6, Up 7.2
Ignatieff - 49.5, Up 7.0
Duceppe - 9.7, Down 9.3
http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110415-LeadershipE.pdf

So according to Nanos, all 3 federalist leaders had their leadership scores go up, and Duceppe's took a plunge? Does that make sense?

Elizabeth May's score also dropped 3.9 points (from 13.7 to 9.8) and the combined 'None of them'/'Don't know' score dropped 3.1 points.

NorthReport wrote:

One in ten Canadians who say they'll vote still up for grabs: poll

 

http://www.globalregina.com/decisioncanada/Canadians+they+vote+still+gra...

The most dangerous numbers in this poll for the NDP are those in BC. They suggest that a large number of voters are throwing in the towel on stopping the Conservatives. If this starts to take hold it will be time to go very negative in the air war on the Conservatives in that province (and do a "hope" leader's tour). I expect that when the BC NDP pick their leader there will be a poll bounce. If the BC NDP picks Farnworth, I expect a bounce on the Lower Mainland and if Dix wins I expect the NDP activist core will be energised. If Horgan wins, the NDP might get a bump from would be Green voters (Horgan has a lot of Greens backing his campaign and could be see as the "environmental" choice).