Regions:
NDP Now Tied With Liberals - 17 Apr
Mon, 2011-04-18 00:16
#1
NDP Now Tied With Liberals - 17 Apr
Mon, 2011-04-18 00:23
#2
Apparently Leger will have a poll out overnight that contains some "surprises" - be interesting to see if its a similar "surprise". This is astonishing! I'll bet the die-hard Liberals at the Star were shitting bricks about havng to write that headline.
Imagine how all that "strategic voting" crap we have to deal with in Toronto could collapse like a house of cards once people see a screaming headline that the NDP is moving ahead of the Liberals!
Mon, 2011-04-18 00:31
#3
How on earth did Angus Reid know that it was my birthday today?? Thanks for the present!
Mon, 2011-04-18 00:31
#4
Layton on "strategic" voting:
That phenomenon is nothing new to the NDP and so Layton has been campaigning just as hard against Michael Ignatieff as he has against Harper, accusing the Liberal leader of cozying up to the Conservatives on issues like the war in Afghanistan."I think people are realizing increasingly that they have a choice, unlike what the old parties always say, which is that you can choose only one door or the other," Layton told reporters in Halifax on Sunday, when asked how he would grow his support with only two weeks left.
"I think a lot of Canadians don't like to be told what to do, and so we're seeing a lot of enthusiasm on the ground."
Mon, 2011-04-18 00:32
#5
Happy birthday.
Mon, 2011-04-18 00:34
#7
The whole Star article is devoted to saying the support from the NDP is soft-- hope people will read that for what it is.
Would be nice if the Leger Poll put the NDP in second... guess we'll see but I can't stay up till 3 am to wait.
Mon, 2011-04-18 00:34
#8
Malcolm
Anyone have a link to the regionals?
Mon, 2011-04-18 00:36
#9
If the election ends like that -- wouldn't that be interesting since so many pundits were saying this was the election that was going to hurt the NDP-- maybe not so much.
Mon, 2011-04-18 00:38
#10
Usually ARS/Vision Critical puts out their full report the next day - so I assume we will see this soon. It almost seems too good to be true. BTW: the poll also confirms that the Tories are bombing in Quebec.
Mon, 2011-04-18 00:39
#11
If the election ends like that -- wouldn't that be interesting since so many pundits were saying this was the election that was going to hurt the NDP-- maybe not so much.
Indeed. I had almost forgotten about the firearms debate. Thanks.
Mon, 2011-04-18 00:41
#12
Let us hope this poll is real-- I think all the pollsters cannot be trusted right now... But that number looks so nice...
Mon, 2011-04-18 00:48
#13
Angus Reid seems to be out of whack with the other polls. It seems to overestimate NDP support the same way Ipsos-Reid and EKOS overestimate Conservative and Liberal support.
Mon, 2011-04-18 00:50
#14
Angus Reid was the most accurate pollster in 2008, for whatever that is worth.
Mon, 2011-04-18 00:52
#15
I wouldn't expect LS to say otherwise.
Angus Reid Strategies were the most accurate pollster forecasting the 2008 election results. I have been wondering if Nanos had been overestimating Liberal support for some time now.
Mon, 2011-04-18 00:52
#16
Quebec numbers:
Bloc 36
NPD 26
Lib 19
Con 17
Au Québec, le chef néo-démocrate fait encore mieux: 38% des Québécois affirment qu'il est le meilleur pour diriger le pays contre 14% pour Stephen Harper et 13% pour Michael Ignatieff.
Mon, 2011-04-18 00:55
#17
Angus Reid seems to be out of whack with the other polls. It seems to overestimate NDP support the same way Ipsos-Reid and EKOS overestimate Conservative and Liberal support.
It may not be so out of whack. Forum Research released a phone poll on Friday that they did for the Hill Times that had the NDP at 22% and the Liberals at 25% - not so far off. You may be right that Angus Reid overestimates the NDP a bit - so if we get 22 or 23% instead of 25% - I'm still happy! Meanwhile, this is fantastic for morale and will force the media to cover us and give us wayyy more attention.
Mon, 2011-04-18 01:08
#18
Of course, that increased media coverage is more likely to be along the lines of "Oh noes! Teh socialist hordes iz at the gates!"
Mon, 2011-04-18 01:10
#19
La Presse headline:
Le NPD sur une lancee / NPD on a roll
Sweet! 
Mon, 2011-04-18 01:13
#20
Harper's leadership number fell substantially today on the Nanos leadership index:
Harper = 91.6 (down from 105.4)
Layton = 56.9 (down from 67.6)
Ignatieff = 51.9 (up from 49.5)
Duceppe = 19.5 (up from 9.8)
May = 10.2 (up from 9.7)
http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20110417/nanos-index-poll-110417/
Mon, 2011-04-18 01:37
#21
Malcolm
Apparently that new Leger poll shows the NDP at 22% - and running second in Quebec and everywhere west of Ontario.
Mon, 2011-04-18 01:51
#22
These are good numbers-- now the momentum has to go for two weeks -- hopefully the NDP can open a little ground on the Liberals and take a solid second
Based on these numbers I don't see a Con majority either
Mon, 2011-04-18 02:00
#23
The Cons only have to pick up about 10 or 12 seats. If they take back a few in the Maritimes, take a few more in Ontario and a few out West, they can get there. They are running some very strong candidates this time, particularly in the Maritimes, and are pulling out all the stops by running former cabinet ministers, senators etc.
It's important to realize they are still hovering close to a majority and not to get complacent.
Mon, 2011-04-18 02:02
#24
Tories hold lead while NDP surges
Leger Marketing
Canada
C - 38%, Up 1%
L - 26%, Flatlined
N - 22%, Up 4%
B -
G - 5%,down 3%
Quebec
B - 34%, Down 5%
N - 24%, Up 6%
C - 20%
L - 20%
BC
C - 37%
N - 28% (2nd place]
http://www.torontosun.com/news/decision2011/2011/04/17/18028066.html
Mon, 2011-04-18 02:03
#25
The one thing I'd worry about if the NDP numbers go up even further is that the same thing happens to them, as had happened to the Liberal Democrats in the UK. Specifically that they spread the resources out too far in the forelorn hope that they make massive gains, which instead of leading to modest seat gains, leads to a modest seat loss. They need to, at least when it comes to assigning their resources, remain somewhat more restrained in their goals. That and they need to be prepared for the onslaught from the other parties so that they don't loose any momentum come election day.
Mon, 2011-04-18 02:07
#26
Van Kid:
I think you're right, but I think the NDP braintrust already has this in mind. They will be focussing on real potential gains in select ridings in NS, AB, SK, QC (outside Mtl), Toronto and SW ON. The only places where I expect we will be trying to reap big wholesale gains is in BC and on the island of Montreal.
Mon, 2011-04-18 02:12
#27
The one thing I'd worry about if the NDP numbers go up even further is that the same thing happens to them, as had happened to the Liberal Democrats in the UK. Specifically that they spread the resources out too far in the forelorn hope that they make massive gains, which instead of leading to modest seat gains, leads to a modest seat loss. They need to, at least when it comes to assigning their resources, remain somewhat more restrained in their goals. That and they need to be prepared for the onslaught from the other parties so that they don't loose any momentum come election day.
You read my mind. I was thinking that this situation seems eerily similar to what happened with the Lib Dems last year (level-pegging with or even besting Labour in the polls, popular leader, strong debate performance, etc).
While I'm certainly chilling the champagne at this point, I'd like to see these numbers confirmed in some other polls before I pop the cork.
Mon, 2011-04-18 02:14
#28
No one is getting complacent unless you are, but NDP have had their ideas stolen but never incorporated by the Liberals for years.
Please allow NDPers an opportunity to at least feel good about some fantastic polling results from Angus Reid and Leger Marketing tonite.
Now that a second pollster is basically confirming the NDP surge, it might be worthwhile to suspect other polls, particularly Nanos, which don't show the same results.
Mon, 2011-04-18 02:17
#29
Don't get me wrong North Report, I'm quite happy and far prefer 25% to 15%. But like the Canucks vs. Blackhawks series, while it's far better to be winning (in a non-Charlie Sheen type of way), it isn't over until it's over.
Mon, 2011-04-18 02:21
#30
Van Kid:
I think you're right, but I think the NDP braintrust already has this in mind. They will be focussing on real potential gains in select ridings in NS, AB, SK, QC (outside Mtl), Toronto and SW ON. The only places where I expect we will be trying to reap big wholesale gains is in BC and on the island of Montreal.
I agree, I think the PEI/NFLD tour and Quebec City tour this weekend were for coverage and to build for next time - the next 14 days should be devoted exclusively to targeted ridings. Even in BC, we need to be strategic and focused; at least 15 BC seats are bedrock Conservative holds, but with these numbers, we should be able to target Esquimalt-JDF, Vancouver Island North, Surrey North and Newton North-Delta, with seats like Nanaimo-Alberni and Kamloops-Thomson coming into play as well if the surge is sustained.
What about Manitoba? Surely we need to at least focus on taking Winnipeg North back with the Libs in free fall; any other possible pick ups in MB? We also need to push to protect Dennis Bevington in NWT and maybe try to win Yukon back?
Mon, 2011-04-18 02:41
#31
VK
If these polls we got tonite are eventually confirmed by other pollsters, forget Nanos as they seem to be on some kind of a massive outier, and Layton and the rest of the NDP team continue to shine and excel, do you think there is any possibilty that the NDP could end up with the most number of seats on May 2?
Mon, 2011-04-18 02:46
#32
Who knows. Maybe? Especially if they can pass the Bloc in Quebec, the Cons in BC and recover at least somewhat in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. I wouldn't put money on that happening but the momentum is swinging in the NDP's direction as multiple polls have clearly indicated that they're in the low to mid 20s. I think people are sick of politics and politicians and if Jack really is as popular as some are saying, then maybe he could be the anti-politician Politician that helps pull the NDP's support up to where it would need to be for that to hapen.
Mon, 2011-04-18 02:59
#33
I think this gives the NDP Outremont, Gatineau, Hull-Aylmer, Jeanne-LeBer, maybe Westmount--Ville-Marie, maybe Saint-Lambert (Sadia Groguhé??), maybe even Pontiac (Mathieu Ravignat??). Beyond that, who knows?
I also think the Conservatives are down to five seats in Quebec.
Mon, 2011-04-18 03:07
#34
Now that a second pollster is basically confirming the NDP surge, it might be worthwhile to suspect other polls, particularly Nanos, which don't show the same results.
Nanos had the NDP going up 6% in one week
Mon, 2011-04-18 03:09
#35
VKIf these polls we got tonite are eventually confirmed by other pollsters, forget Nanos as they seem to be on some kind of a massive outier, and Layton and the rest of the NDP team continue to shine and excel, do you think there is any possibilty that the NDP could end up with the most number of seats on May 2?
I know this question was addressed to Vansterdam, but I'll wade in and say there is no realistic possibility that the NDP ends up with the most seats on election day. The Tories seem to have a solid bloc of 35% of the vote that is just not budging despite a weak campaign and scandal after scandal. Even an NDP tie with the Grits in the popular vote likely still leaves the NDP in third place in the seat count. The NDP would have to be getting close to 30 percent and be a good 5 or 6 points ahead of the Grits before they would overtake the Grits in the seat count.
Sorry if I sound like an 'Eeyore', but the NDP has underperformed at the ballot box in the last three elections (most notably in 2004, when there was a large last-minute shift to the Grits the weekend before the vote). As tempting as it is to dismiss the Star's comments that the NDP vote is soft as Liberal spin (and there's no doubt there's a good dose of it in there), the polling data quoted, if accurate, certainly seems to indicate that. I guess I'd rather the party members work like hell and be pleasantly surprised on election night, rather than wondering why we didn't win 50 seats.
Mon, 2011-04-18 03:14
#36
I also think the Conservatives are down to five seats in Quebec.
The Conservatives were 16.4% behind the Bloc in 2008. Most of the polling has them within that gap
Mon, 2011-04-18 03:14
#37
bagkitty
Well this removes all the suspense - now I know what Jeffrey Simpson and John Ibbitson are going to be writing about all week.... how "irresponsible" it would be to actually vote for the NDP and how the numbers will ever hold up. No need for me to go to the Globe and Mail site at all now.
Mon, 2011-04-18 03:38
#38
Tories hold lead while NDP surges
Leger Marketing
BC
C - 37%
N - 28% (2nd place]
http://www.torontosun.com/news/decision2011/2011/04/17/18028066.html
Where did you get those BC numbers? I couldn't find them in the article
Edit: Found them
http://www.torontosun.com/news/decision2011/2011/04/17/18028046.html
Mon, 2011-04-18 03:39
#39
WOW...and the real important thing is a lot of that percentage is Quebec ...that means lots in relation to equivelant percentages elsewhere..ie conservative albertan percentages......
My Shameless you tube anthem
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0eQgUpkJ1Q
Mon, 2011-04-18 03:48
#40
Yup and how much did Nanos drop them the previous week?
Now that a second pollster is basically confirming the NDP surge, it might be worthwhile to suspect other polls, particularly Nanos, which don't show the same results.
Nanos had the NDP going up 6% in one week
Mon, 2011-04-18 03:59
#41
Well this removes all the suspense - now I know what Jeffrey Simpson and John Ibbitson are going to be writing about all week.... how "irresponsible" it would be to actually vote for the NDP and how the numbers will ever hold up. No need for me to go to the Globe and Mail site at all now.
LMFAO!
Mon, 2011-04-18 04:01
#42
What about Manitoba? Surely we need to at least focus on taking Winnipeg North back with the Libs in free fall; any other possible pick ups in MB? We also need to push to protect Dennis Bevington in NWT and maybe try to win Yukon back?
I'm in Winnipeg, and my feeling is not that the Liberals are in free-fall here at all. In fact, I think Terry Duguid might succeed in taking Winnipeg South back from the Tories.
The strong national wind in the NDP sails is somewhat dampened by some countervailing gusts here in Manitoba. I think we have a great shot of winning back Winnipeg North with Rebecca Blaikie and holding onto Elmwood-Transcona (Pat Martin and Niki Ashton are pretty safe), but it will be a fight. That said, we're going to be doing everything we can to start raising our numbers in other ridings (Kildonan-St Paul, Winnipeg South Centre). We may need some new second-tier ridings after this election, after all! :)
Mon, 2011-04-18 06:43
#43
Nice analysis by David Climenhaga of The Star's reporting, and forecast of what we can expect over the next two weeks:
Plenty of voters, myself included, have voted strategically for Liberals when we preferred New Democrats because in the ridings where we lived the No. 3 party, whichever it was, didn't have a chance.If the New Democrats are on the cusp of becoming the No. 2 party, it may in fact be the Liberals who see their support peeling off toward the NDP by the time voters go to the polls.
Count on it that if that possibility rears its head, the mainstream media -- and not just the perennially Liberal Toronto Star -- will pull out all the stops to prevent it from becoming reality.
So look for plenty of stories in the next few days like the Star's, full of qualifiers, hedges and explanations of why what you're seeing isn’t really what you're seeing.
http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/djclimenhaga/2011/04/toronto-stars-cover...
Mon, 2011-04-18 06:44
#44
It is true that the NDP vote is less committed than the other parties so it'll be important to consolidate this somehow. Hopefully there'll be a few other polls repeating these kind of numbers and then the Liberals can eat their own strategic voting arguments.
Mon, 2011-04-18 07:02
#45
I think this gives the NDP Outremont, Gatineau, Hull-Aylmer, Jeanne-LeBer, maybe Westmount--Ville-Marie, maybe Saint-Lambert (Sadia Groguhé??), maybe even Pontiac (Mathieu Ravignat??). Beyond that, who knows?
I also think the Conservatives are down to five seats in Quebec.
I took a close look at Montreal's 2008 results. If the NDP is over 30% of the vote in Montreal, then we really want to look at all seats where no party could get a clear majority last time. I will not be surprised if the NDP wins seats like these in three or four way races with about 30%: Lasalle-Emard, Laval, Longueuil-Pierre-Boucher, Hochelega, NDG-Lachine, etc. You may even see seats which had really low NDP votes because of strategic voting suddenly strategically vote NDP.
Mon, 2011-04-18 07:22
#46
Nanos Research
Canada
Cons - 39.8%, Up 0.8%
Libs - 29.8%, Up 1.5%
NDP - 17.4%, Down 1.0%
Bloc - 8.6%, Down 1.0%
Grn - 3.4%, Down 0.2%
Und - 17.4%, Up 1%
Quebec
Bloc - 35.8%
NPD - 23%
Libs - 18.3%
Cons - 17.8%
Grn - 2.9%, Down 0.3%
Und - 20.4%, Up 3.4%
http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110417-BallotE.pdf
Mon, 2011-04-18 07:36
#47
Regional 'turbulence' underpins Harper's 10-point national lead
And Mr. Nanos notes that when the Tories are at 61.5 per cent support in the Prairie provinces, as they are now, that helps a lot with their strong national numbers. But scratch below the surface, he says, and take a look at the regional trends.
In Quebec, Mr. Layton and his New Democrats have doubled their showing from the 2008 election. They've gone to a 23 per cent rating, which was tracked on Sunday, from 12.2 per cent support.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/regional-tu...
Mon, 2011-04-18 07:38
#48
Nanos ' Quebec numbers are very consistent with those of Angus Reid, Leger, Forum and Ekos. but they are wildly divergent when it comes to the rest of Canada.
Any thoughts?
Mon, 2011-04-18 07:58
#49
Nanos is now affiated with Globe/CTV whose mission has been to create a 2-way race over the past several elections.
Mon, 2011-04-18 08:00
#50
Nanos has the NDP higher in Quebec than anywhere else in the country. i don't believe that.
Mon, 2011-04-18 08:03
#51
It's for Nanos reasons that I'd be very guarded about the "tied at 25" bullishness--simply for the sake of sobriety, and with a bow to past patterns. Though there's something rather ominous-looking about the NPD in that poll gaining strength in Quebec and tanking everywhere else; almost like a 60s "Creditiste-ing" of the party...