Federal polling - April 15

123 posts / 0 new

Topic locked

Mon, 2011-04-18 01:19

Vansterdam Kid

Yes, obviously the Angus Reid numbers. I can't see how the Conservatives would do better with 36% and the Liberals and NDP tied at 25% than in 2008 with them at 37%, the Liberals at 26% and the NDP at 18%.

Mon, 2011-04-18 08:45

#103

Northern-54

Today's Nanos numbers would indicate a 12% day for the NDP last night. The BC and Ontario numbers would be lower yet. This means that we are back to the siutation of the first week of the campaign when we had an 8% night which makes the poll misleading for the next three days unless the poll really is correct and the two we got yesterday wrong.

Mon, 2011-04-18 09:09

#104

KenS

Posted an hour ago in another thread:

With the nature of the daily polling, Nanos numbers are more likely to be out of whack. Even as they show stability form day-to-day... that still may mask methodological artifces that are greater than the metodological artifices of others.

Personally, I dont preclude that they all have deep methodological flaws. Probabilistically speaking, that could be true, while none of them are outliers in relation to the others. In other words: none of them produclng bad enough results to be ridiculous, but possibly none actually able to pick up trends developing.... just all of them reproducing a similar mediocrity.

Mon, 2011-04-18 09:20

#105

Northern-54

True. Also, Nanos is a phone survey while the other two were taken on-line. This could be a major cause of the difference. As well, Nanos asks which two of the parties the voter is considering and then asking to choose between the two of them. This could produce quite different results. The online surveys typically are taken over a longer time period though with larger numbers. However, in the Leger poll's case, it was between April 15 & 17, the exact time that the Nanos poll was taken. I could not find the time period for the Angus Reid survey. If it were over a longer time period, it could be out-of-date. The online polls have a much larger sample size which could add to their accuracy. On the other hand, they typically ask more questions and those questions can change the respondent's choice, particularly if the vote intention question is asked last or if the survey gives the respondent a change to alter their response once reading the additional questions.

Mon, 2011-04-18 09:24

#106

Incorrect

Angus Reid was the most accurate predictor in the 2008 federal election, so they should probably be given serious consideration.

http://www.angus-reid.com/services/record-of-accuracy/

The fact that they have the Conservatives at only 36 percent must be worrisome to Harper and company. A combined support of 50 percent for the Liberals and the NDP would provide a strong madate for a coalition of these parties. How can Harper ask to govern with only 36 percent of the vote when the Liberal and NDP coalition has 50 percent or more? This could be the end for the nightmare scenario of a Harper majority. All of these daily Nanos polls showing the potential for a Conservative majority are are actually very helpful. They frighten non Conservatives, and lull Harper supporters into assuming that victory is certain. This may have an effect on voter turnout.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/43846/tories-ahead-in-canada-but-ndp-ties-liberals-as-layton-connects-with-voters/

Mon, 2011-04-18 09:42

#107

KenS

None of that logic about credible claims for right to govern makes any difference even now during the election.

And after the elction it will matter near zero. If the Liberals go for governing, what Harper says will have no further traction.

Mon, 2011-04-18 09:56

#108

bekayne

Garth Brasseur wrote:

I could not find the time period for the Angus Reid survey.

April 15 & 16

Mon, 2011-04-18 10:12

#109

Anonymouse

Reaction from the NDP campaign team

Mon, 2011-04-18 11:02

#110

Doug

Garth Brasseur wrote:

Today's Nanos numbers would indicate a 12% day for the NDP last night. The BC and Ontario numbers would be lower yet. This means that we are back to the siutation of the first week of the campaign when we had an 8% night which makes the poll misleading for the next three days unless the poll really is correct and the two we got yesterday wrong.

There's bound to be a lot of noise in the Nanos results because of the small daily sample size. It's probably best to consider their results a week at a time.

Mon, 2011-04-18 12:34

#111

nicky

New Abacus poll

C 37

L 29

N 20

B 8

G 5

http://abacusdata.ca/2011/04/18/tories-lead-by-8-as-the-campaign-enters-final-two-weeks/

Mon, 2011-04-18 15:03

#112

nicky

From Canadaelectionwatch.ca:

The NDP in Québec

Although the NDP has pulled ahead of the Liberals and Conservatives in the Québec polling average, they are projected to win only 2 seats, Outremont and Gatineau. The reason is that in 2008, NDP support wasn't strongly concentrated like the Grits' (Montréal) and Tories' (Quebec City). The model assumes a uniform gain across the province, meaning that the projected NDP support is still diffuse.

However, if, as seems likely, NDP gains came mainly in Montréal and the Outaouais, they would also have a shot at Jeanne--Le Ber, Hull--Aylmer and perhaps Pontiac. Additionally, the NDP has a strong candidate in Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou. The one other riding where an NDP win wouldn't be completely out of the blue is Westmount--Ville-Marie.

The NDP is therefore looking at up to 7 seats in Québec, assuming that it doesn't rise too far above 25% provincially. (If it does, then anything could happen.) I'd rank these seats as follows in terms of likelihood of win, with main opponent(s) in parentheses:

Pages

Topic locked