NDP Now Tied With Liberals - 17 Apr

Layton obviously did extremely well in the debates

Layton sees growing Quebec support, targets Liberals

The attention on Quebec may be paying off for the NDP, as a series of polls released on Monday showed the party gaining strength in Quebec.

For his part, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has made his own attempts to take voters away from the NDP since the campaign began.

Ignatieff has made the pitch that the Liberals are the only party that can stop Conservative Leader Stephen Harper.

 But it's that history of governing that Layton is trying to use against the Liberals.

"The major difference is that we're committing to get things done," Layton said. "They've made commitments and turned right around and broke those commitments time and time again. That's the major difference."

The NDP leader received strong reviews following the two leaders' debates last week.

 http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/story/2011/04/18/cv-election-layton-quebec-812.html

Those are really good numbers for the NDP. Usually I urge caution with polls but let's celebrate. Even if the polls don't hold up, 25% is the highest the NDP has ever achieved under Jack Layton's leadership and that a milestone worth recognizing.

As for the believability of the poll? Why not? It has been preceeded by a lot of good polls and the Québec numbers are even starting to feel like old news. One of the things I look forward to in this campaign is Layton not repeated Broadbent's gaffe of saying the Liberals are finished and scaring every Liberal back into voting for Ignatieff. In fact, I expect Layton will be pursuing a mixed strategy of giving voice to Liberal voters disappointment (with their leadership) and then the Manitoba NDP's "hug a Liberal" approach.

Btw, the NDP is opening up a BIG lead on the other federalist parties in Québec. Canadians take note.

I don't understand what is going on with Nanos. AR and his numbers have been vastly different every time. Thoughts anyone?

By the way, these are encouraging numbers, but I say take it with a grain of salt.

My best guess is the following:

Nanos is doing a phone poll and seniors are likely to respond on it and they are more likely to vote Conservative or Liberal.  Angus Reid is doing online polls which are more likely to attract young people who use cell phones and are less likely to be picked for the phone surveys.  Perhaps, Angus Reid alters their poll results to reflect demography of the voting population.  It is unlikely that a tracking poll would do that as it takes awhile and there isn't enough numbers to warrant it.

Another possible reason is that tracking polls drop 400 off each night and add 400 which goes them to look unstable.  Also, tracking polls tend to pick 2 or 3 voters per riding in an area.  If a party's support is centralized in winnable ridings like the NDP, this could cause wild fluctuations in results.

I do not believe it likely that Nanos is manipulating their results but if, in fact, Nanos is "cooking" their polls, I'd look for a "correction" by the end of the campaign so it doesn't affect their long term reputation.

389 polls from Jan 2007 to April 2011

Polling Organization----LIB GRE CON NDP BQ
Abacus-----------------0.25 0.08 0.37 0.20 0.10
Angus Reid--------------0.28 0.08 0.36 0.18 0.09
EKOS-------------------0.28 0.11 0.34 0.16 0.09
Environics--------------0.30 0.08 0.36 0.16 0.09
Harris Decima-----------0.28 0.10 0.34 0.17 0.09
Ipsos Reid--------------0.30 0.09 0.36 0.15 0.09
Leger------------------0.27 0.07 0.35 0.16 0.08
Nanos-----------------0.33 0.06 0.36 0.17 0.09
Strategic Counsel-------0.30 0.10 0.35 0.16 0.10
Overall Avg-------------0.29 0.09 0.35 0.16 0.09

Polling Organization Total
Nanos 33
Strategic Counsel 31
Ipsos Reid 60
Environics 8
EKOS 101
Harris Decima 82
Angus Reid 59
Leger 13
Abacus 2
Grand Total 389

http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/fedsupporttable.html

Angus Reid Strategies: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to support in your constituency?

EKOS Research Associates: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

Environics: If a Canadian federal election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for [ROTATE PARTIES] the Liberal Party, the Conservative Party, the New Democratic Party, [Quebec Only] the Bloc Québécois, the Green Party, or another party?

Ipsos Reid: Thinking of how you feel right now, if FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties' candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support ?

Strategic Counsel:

1. If the federal election was being held tomorrow, do you think you’d be supporting the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area?
2. In that case, which party’s candidate in your local area would you be leaning towards at this time? Would it be the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, Conservative candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, Green Party candidate in your area or (QUEBEC ONLY) Bloc Quebecois candidate in your area?

Nanos: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed Voters Only - First Preference)

The details of the Leger poll are out now:

http://www.legermarketing.com/documents/POL/114181ENG.pdf

A few highlights:

Atlantic: C33%, L34%, NDP29%

Quebec: BQ34%, NDP24%, C20%, L20%

Ontario: C43, L34%, NDP18%

Man/Sask: C47, NDP27, L21

Alberta: C59%, NDP17%, L17%

BC: C37%, NDP28%, L24%, G10%

Lard Tunderin Jeezus wrote:

Not that it matters a whole lot, but a mere 11 votes here would put Jack on top....

He's about 600 behind Harper

Noticed this in the Angus Reid poll:

Male: NDP 25%, Lib 24%

Female: NDP 27%, Lib 23%

Total: NDP 25%, Lib 25%

I can't see Iggy surviving for long as party leader when this election is concluded.  The ascendency of Bob Rae should do wonders down the road for the NDP in Ontario.

JeffWells wrote:

Something that needs saying now is that the NDP has a much stronger claim to "national party" status than the Liberals.

Harper's playing the Scary Separatist card is disturbing as well as despicable. Conservative strategists seem to have thrown in the towel on courting the province, and are now gambling on a "Get tough on Quebec" line. If he gains a majority government on those terms he's destined to be Canada's Milosevic.

 

Good point.

According to these polls at least the Liberals are basically a Vancouver (proper), Winnipeg (proper), Metro Toronto, a few other cities in Ontario, Anglophone Montreal & Atlantic party. The Cons have basically written off any chance at making gains, or even holding onto their Quebec support, whereas only the NDP has reasonably balanced support throughout English and French Canada, with a reasonable shot at winning seats in every province except PEI.

Vansterdam Kid wrote:

JeffWells wrote:

Something that needs saying now is that the NDP has a much stronger claim to "national party" status than the Liberals.

Harper's playing the Scary Separatist card is disturbing as well as despicable. Conservative strategists seem to have thrown in the towel on courting the province, and are now gambling on a "Get tough on Quebec" line. If he gains a majority government on those terms he's destined to be Canada's Milosevic.

 

Good point.

According to these polls at least the Liberals are basically a Vancouver (proper), Winnipeg (proper), Metro Toronto, a few other cities in Ontario, Anglophone Montreal & Atlantic party. The Cons have basically written off any chance at making gains, or even holding onto their Quebec support, whereas only the NDP has reasonably balanced support throughout English and French Canada, with a reasonable shot at winning seats in every province except PEI.

That case is even stronger when you factor in that Wascana in Saskatchewan is more a Ralph Goodale seat than it is a Liberal seat. When Goodale goes, watch for that riding to change parties and for the Liberal vote in Saskatchewan to plummet, meaning the Liberals won't elect people in Saskatchewan.

Malcolm wrote:

I assume that means the Liberals lead the New Democrats among transgendered / transexual / intersexed?

Doubtful. Several Liberals (including a certain Mr Tonks) have proven themselves hostile to C-389. One of the very many reasons they do not deserve the public's trust.

Layton is going to be interviewed tonite on the National

Malcolm was playing

edmundoconnor wrote:

Malcolm wrote:

I assume that means the Liberals lead the New Democrats among transgendered / transexual / intersexed?

Doubtful. Several Liberals (including a certain Mr Tonks) have proven themselves hostile to C-389. One of the very many reasons they do not deserve the public's trust.

edmundoconnor wrote:

I think the Liberals want Goodale there as long as possible, given the unlikelihood of finding a successor candidate.

When Ralph goes, the seat will become a bunfight between the Tories and NDP.

I think they are just get get him stuffed and keep him till he looks like a five year old apple.

NorthReport wrote:

Layton is going to be interviewed tonite on the National

Are you talking about that townhall sort of thing the cbc does like in past elections, because I love those. Best part of cbc coverage.

Has anyone else noticed some of the key details of Angus Reid? The NDP is first amoung the 18 to thirty four crowd, second in the 35 to fifty area. Only amoung seniors are liberals beating the ndp. Thank the gods Rick Mercier is getting the youth vote out.

Also Jack is tied with Harper for who would make the best pm at 27 to harpers 28 percent. Jack has the only positive momentuim score when it comes to approval at +26 compared to negatives for every one else. Jack has an approval of 50% which is the highest any leader has gotten in 3 years in this poll.

While things could go down, they could also go up. Who does AR poll for again?

Stockholm wrote:

The details of the Leger poll are out now:

http://www.legermarketing.com/documents/POL/114181ENG.pdf

A few highlights:

Atlantic: C33%, L34%, NDP29%

Quebec: BQ34%, NDP24%, C20%, L20%

Ontario: C43, L34%, NDP18%

Man/Sask: C47, NDP27, L21

Alberta: C59%, NDP17%, L17%

BC: C37%, NDP28%, L24%, G10%

 

With these and the Angus Reid regionals, I don't see the Conservatives netting any seats in Atlantic Canada. While they might pick up a seat or two in Newfoundland, they could lose them elsewhere. That essentially means (assuming they lose at least a handful of seats in Quebec) they'll have to pick up quite a few seats in Ontario for a majority.

Duceppe sounds tired.  Maybe getting bad numbers from his own team?  

What I find noteworthy, other than being tied with the Liberals, is that the NDP are also closing the gap to first place, which slight movement could put them within less than 10% of the first place finisher. Think of what that would mean.

I live in NDG-Lachine. The riding is split in two: the poor franco east who votes Bloc or not at all, and the "rich" mixes west who votes liberal. Marlene Jennings will not be easy to displace. The candidates from the other parties are nobodies. The CPC candidate is not the same as last time. The NDP cnadidate is a fairly young woman (nothing wrong with that but often indicates the party has no serious chance of winning. The Greens got something like 4%.

I think people are under estimating the possible seats the ndp could get in Quebec being one or two pickups in a provence as big as Quebec with 26 to 24 percent of the vote while the liberals gain even more seats with less of the vote is insane. Even in our crappy system I refuse to believe that. God in Ontario where we do worse most elections we do better with far stronger competiters. A strong second place in Quebec with the liberal weak and only three seats to the liberal gains over the 14 they have now? Thats insane. How many seats does quebec have?

Ignatieff just isn't cutting it. So they brought in Paul Martin. And they are bringing in Jean Chretien. And today they brought Justin Trudeau to the help out in the GTA where people like Ruby Dhalla are in big trouble. Look at their screw-up with their health care ad today. The Liberals are in full crisis mode.