Federal polling - April 19

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Wed, 2011-04-20 11:16

ottawaobserver

The NDP is taking from the Bloc in many parts of Quebec, NR. You can tell by where Gilles Duceppe's tour is going, and what he's saying about whom. It's also unsurprising if you do any statistical analysis of actual election results.

What might explain the discrepancy is that CROP might be commenting specifically in Quebec City. Of course, the Bloc was already down there, so the previous Liberals there might have been Liberal-Bloc switchers. But that one region of the province is quite different from others.

Also as to some other points being made above, in general, there might be something about the Nanos methodology that's turned up slightly different results, but they're all moving in the same direction.

Boom Boom, promise me that you will suspend judgement on what vote splits what from whom in your riding until closer to E-Day. You may actually be living in a riding the NDP can pick up, and you do know that if you make the wrong call too early, you're going to be subjected to merciless teasing here ;-)

Wed, 2011-04-20 11:23

#53

Northern-54

knownothing wrote:

I think the NDP is actually closer to the 20-25% range that the other polls are saying (Angus Reid-Leger). CTV/Globe can't allow NDP pop. Vote to top 20% because then it would look like they actually have a chance of passing the Liberals and forming government. It would contribute to their momentum. It is too easy to rig federal poll numbers. So they put us at 19.8. As close as they could get without crossing the threshold.

Tomorrow's results will be a good test. A really bad day on the phones at Nanos will be dropped off and new one added. The last two days have been good days according to my crude way of calculating. So, if tomorrow is another day when the NDP is polling at around 12%, it would be suspicious.

I already have a suspicion that Nanos picks its sample by phoning one or two calls into each riding a night. This would cause big fluctuations for those parties with support that is centred to specific ridings in regions. That is how I account for the substantial difference between what Nanos reports for the NDP in Ontario and British Columbia. In those provinces, our support is not evenly distributed like it is reputed to be in Quebec. As well, Nanos asks for the top two preferences of voters. Many Liberal/NDP voters are trying to decide between the two parties. Their decision often rests on which of the two parties the voter believes will have the best chance of defeating the Conservatives in the election. If the polls should show the NDP has a better chance than the Liberals at the start of next week, we might actually see the NDP vote rise in the last week and not fall as it has in some past elections.

If Ekos was operating the poll, I'd expect the NDP results to be exaggerated high so that they could show a switch from the NDP to the Liberals in their last poll of the election.

Wed, 2011-04-20 11:41

#54

Anonymouse

After weeks of handwringing I want to say, the NDP is the clear second choice of Quebeckers right now.

Wed, 2011-04-20 15:41

#55

bekayne

Leger poll of 2 Northern Quebec ridings

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/04/northern-quebec-riding-polls-bode-well.html

Wed, 2011-04-20 16:04

#56

Boom Boom

I have no trouble whatsoever with the NDP being the clear second choice of Quebecers, so long as Quebecers recognise that the BQ is the best choice in Quebec to stop Harper from getting a majority. My ideal for Quebec would be about 50 BQ seats and 25 for the NDP, as if that would ever happen!

Wed, 2011-04-20 16:17

#57

NorthReport

Nanos Leadership Index

Big day for Layton, as he closes in on Harper's lead by an amazing 35.1 points. There is only a difference of 16 points between them now.

Harper - 92.8, Down 17.8

Layton - 76.8, Up 17.3

Ignatieff - 41.5, Down 7.6

Duceppe - 10.8, Down 4.7

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110419-LeadershipE.pdf

Wed, 2011-04-20 16:17

#58

Stockholm

Wouldn't it be even more ideal if Quebec elected 75 NDp Mps and zero for the BQ???

Wed, 2011-04-20 16:19

#59

gyor

Boom Boom wrote:

I have no trouble whatsoever with the NDP being the clear second choice of Quebecers, so long as Quebecers recognise that the BQ is the best choice in Quebec to stop Harper from getting a majority. My ideal for Quebec would be about 50 BQ seats and 25 for the NDP, as if that would ever happen!

My ideal for Quebec would be 75 seats and none for the Bloc. Not likely but it would be my ideal.

Wed, 2011-04-20 16:20

#60

gyor

Boom Boom wrote:

I have no trouble whatsoever with the NDP being the clear second choice of Quebecers, so long as Quebecers recognise that the BQ is the best choice in Quebec to stop Harper from getting a majority. My ideal for Quebec would be about 50 BQ seats and 25 for the NDP, as if that would ever happen!

My ideal for Quebec would be 75 seats and none for the Bloc. Not likely but it would be my ideal.

Wed, 2011-04-20 16:20

#61

gyor

Boom Boom wrote:

I have no trouble whatsoever with the NDP being the clear second choice of Quebecers, so long as Quebecers recognise that the BQ is the best choice in Quebec to stop Harper from getting a majority. My ideal for Quebec would be about 50 BQ seats and 25 for the NDP, as if that would ever happen!

My ideal for Quebec would be 75 seats and none for the Bloc. Not likely but it would be my ideal.

Wed, 2011-04-20 16:21

#62

gyor

Boom Boom wrote:

I have no trouble whatsoever with the NDP being the clear second choice of Quebecers, so long as Quebecers recognise that the BQ is the best choice in Quebec to stop Harper from getting a majority. My ideal for Quebec would be about 50 BQ seats and 25 for the NDP, as if that would ever happen!

My ideal for Quebec would be 75 seats and none for the Bloc. Not likely but it would be my ideal.

Wed, 2011-04-20 16:23

#63

NorthReport

Maybe the NDP is the best choice everywhere to stop Harper

Wed, 2011-04-20 16:25

#64

knownothing knownothing's picture

The Bloc is going to take a hit after Duceppe leaves and their supporters are seeing Layton as a chance to switch to a fresh alternative before the Bloc's demise. They should all switch now

Wed, 2011-04-20 16:45

#65

Boom Boom

Rumours of the Bloc's demsie are highly optimistic. I doubt the NDP will get any higher than second in Quebec - ever. And if the Bloc goes down a bit when Duceppe leaves, the same will happen to the NDP when Layton leaves.

Wed, 2011-04-20 17:07

#66

NorthReport

Never say never.

Wed, 2011-04-20 17:14

#67

NorthReport

Layton the only leader whose performance helps party, poll says

Only NDP Leader Jack Layton has had an election campaign that's really helping his party, a new poll suggests.

A Nanos Research poll conducted April 14 to 16 asked 1,200 Canadians whether the party leaders would have a positive or negative impact on their party's local candidate - the same question the pollster asked in February, before the campaign began.

It found that of the leaders, only Mr. Layton has really added appeal that helps his local candidates.

The April survey showed 45 per cent believe Mr. Layton will have a positive impact on the NDP candidate in the riding, and 17 per cent say he will have a negative impact. Another 28 per cent believed his impact would be neutral; another 10 per cent were unsure.

That translates to a positive 28-point spread for Mr. Layton now, a big boost over the 8-point lift for his candidates that the poll found in February.

It's still slightly behind Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe's Quebec-only plus-33 lift for his candidates, but survey respondents in April saw him as less of a boost than they did in February. Conservative Leader Stephen Harper's plus-10 score is almost unchanged from February.

And though Liberal Leader fared better than in February, he's still a drag for the party's candidates, with a minus-7 score, as 28 per cent say he will have a positive impact on the local Liberal candidate, and 35 per cent say his impact is negative.

Pollster Nik Nanos said the results show that Jack Layton "is the one for whom the election has been significantly positive" on a leadership level.

That means Canadians can expect to see an NDP campaign message and advertising that focuses heavily on Mr. Layton to help boost his party's fortunes.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/layton-the-...

Wed, 2011-04-20 17:38

#68

Lord Palmerston

It's quite disconcerting to see these low Ontario numbers from Nanos. I find it very difficult that Ignatieff to believe is pulling away NDP votes in places like Welland and Sudbury.

Wed, 2011-04-20 17:46

#69

NorthReport

I don't know what to say about his polling results, but Nanos did let it slip on Power Play today, Don Martin picked up on it, that Nanos supports Harper and the Conservatives. I don't think Nanos meant for it to come out, but it did. That tells me something right there and I will be looking at his polls differently from now on.

Wed, 2011-04-20 17:46

#70

NorthReport

Wed, 2011-04-20 18:23

#71

David Young

Boom Boom wrote:

Rumours of the Bloc's demsie are highly optimistic. I doubt the NDP will get any higher than second in Quebec - ever. And if the Bloc goes down a bit when Duceppe leaves, the same will happen to the NDP when Layton leaves.

But what would happen to this sudden NDP support in Quebec if Thomas Mulcair were to follow Jack Layton as NDP leader?

Since the NDP has never had a leader born and based in Quebec, wouldn't he be in a unique position to build on what's been happening?

When Duceppe leaves, if he should be replaced by a rural Quebec M.P., Mulcair would be also someone the voters could see as an alternative to the typical Anglophone/Francophone Liberal leader alternation.

Or is Justin Trudeau going to be the annointed successor to Iggy?

Wed, 2011-04-20 18:37

#72

NorthReport

Liberals trusted less than NDP, Tories on health care: poll

http://www.canada.com/news/decision-canada/Liberals+trusted+less+than+To...

Wed, 2011-04-20 18:51

#73

Stockholm

Lord Palmerston wrote:

It's quite disconcerting to see these low Ontario numbers from Nanos. I find it very difficult that Ignatieff to believe is pulling away NDP votes in places like Welland and Sudbury.

Nanos has had a lot of weird outliers for all the parties at various times. You have to take his low Ontario number for the NDP with a boulder of salt - during the same dates there were polls by Environics and Harris Decima that had the NDP at 23% in Ontario - so go figure.

Meanwhile, Vincent Marissal of La Presse tweeted that La Presse will put out a CROP poll tomorrow and to get a strong espresso and be sitting down when you read it (are you thinking what I'm thinking...?)

Wed, 2011-04-20 18:57

#74

NorthReport

Thanks for the heads-up Stockholm.

Wed, 2011-04-20 18:57

#75

NorthReport

Thanks for the heads-up Stockholm.

Wed, 2011-04-20 18:58

#76

Lord Palmerston

The "unite the left" (sic.) types who point with glee to the low NDP numbers shouldn't be that thrilled anyway...my reading of these Nanos polls for Ontario says the Liberals would win lots of NDP seats but few if any Tory seats.

Wed, 2011-04-20 19:03

#77

Stockholm

Lord Palmerston wrote:

The "unite the left" (sic.) types who point with glee to the low NDP numbers shouldn't be that thrilled anyway...my reading of these Nanos polls for Ontario says the Liberals would win lots of NDP seats but few if any Tory seats.

Never mind that - IF Nanos were actually right about Ontario - the NDP would lose a lot of seats to the Tories as well! The unite the left (sic.) types build up this mythology that a strong NDP somehow helps the Tories and yet - Harris Decima has the NDP at 23% and Liberals and Tories dead even in Ontario - while Nanos has the NDP at 12.5% and the Tories with a commanding lead over the Liberals!

Wed, 2011-04-20 19:12

#78

jimmyjim

Nanos had the Liberals winning Ontario last election. How'd that work out for them again?

Wed, 2011-04-20 19:15

#79

knownothing knownothing's picture

Boom Boom wrote:

Rumours of the Bloc's demsie are highly optimistic. I doubt the NDP will get any higher than second in Quebec - ever. And if the Bloc goes down a bit when Duceppe leaves, the same will happen to the NDP when Layton leaves.

Once Layton steps down and Mulcair is leader the NDP will surely become first in Quebec.

Wed, 2011-04-20 19:20

#80

knownothing knownothing's picture

NDP first on Health care: Ipsos Reid Poll

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/decision-canada/Liberals+trusted+less+...

Wed, 2011-04-20 19:22

#81

knownothing knownothing's picture

Layton most liked poll

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5i17LSfdNjox...

Wed, 2011-04-20 19:39

#82

Anonymouse

A few thoughts:

1) Again, relax about Nanos. It is not the same kind of poll as the other companies do. It is a trendline, so there tends to be a lot more variation than in the other static polls and this variation tends to average out so that you get comparable results to the static polls. It's like watching the process of making the sausage (the poll) rather than paying attention to the finished product.

2) At the end of the campaign the NDP often puts together these video montages of the tour and thanks its supporters. I would like them to release this video in the last week of the campaign this time. This is because, these videos pump me up and probably other members of the base too. I'd rather be fired up going in to the home stretch, than after the big show. Also, the video allows the NDP to do some message-framing. If the NDP is on a tear, the video is about the NDP's momentum, if the NDP is on the level then they are about asking who ran the best campaign, which in this election and at this point (like in previous elections) I think people are concluding is the NDP.

3) I'm thinking what Stockholm is thinking about this poll...things in QC are about to get very interesting...There have already been some hints of this in the riding polls where the NDP seems to be gobbling up the non-incumbent vote (e.g. those votes that elected no one last time, particularly for the third place finishing party), while bringing every party down a peg. The poll in Romeo Saganash's riding, while not placing him in 1st, is particularly exciting because it shows how high the Liberals are (they get their votes from FNs in Abitibi-Baie James) yet how far back they are in 4th place- these are votes that are going to be moving if they want to elect a non-BQ MP. People also shouldn't underestimate the coverage the NDP has been getting in the QC media. The QC media has been reporting that the NDP is 2nd in Quebec and 2nd in Canada. With so many QC federalist votes still unresolved (and with so many people listing the NDP as their 2nd choice) that might get voters to sit up and listen.

Wed, 2011-04-20 19:41

#83

Bärlüer

Stockholm wrote:

Meanwhile, Vincent Marissal of La Presse tweeted that La Presse will put out a CROP poll tomorrow and to get a strong espresso and be sitting down when you read it (are you thinking what I'm thinking...?)

A surprise takeover of the Beauce seat by the Greens?

Wed, 2011-04-20 19:46

#84

remind

David Young wrote:
Or is Justin Trudeau going to be the annointed successor to Iggy?

Think they were testing the waters for this yesterday in Vancouver, he road the Go Train all along its route picking up the 4 Liberal MPs along the way.

Guess they were looking for support and recognition like that of his father a few decades ago. They got none.

Wed, 2011-04-20 20:40

#85

Paul Gross

St John's East Poll: NDP 44.9; CPC 16.6; LPC 2.9; GPC 1.0; UND 27.8

St John's Mount St Pearl Poll: LPC 26.3; NDP 23.8; CPC 17.5; GPC 0.7; UND 28.7

I suspect some NDP volunteers and resources may shift from from SJE to SJMP, if they haven't already.

http://www.polemicandparadox.com/2011/04/conservatives-out-of-race-in-al...

Wed, 2011-04-20 21:00

#86

Anonymouse

Paul Gross wrote:

St John's East Poll: NDP 44.9; CPC 16.6; LPC 2.9; GPC 1.0; UND 27.8

St John's Mount St Pearl Poll: LPC 26.3; NDP 23.8; CPC 17.5; GPC 0.7; UND 28.7

I suspect some NDP volunteers and resources may shift from from SJE to SJMP, if they haven't already.

http://www.polemicandparadox.com/2011/04/conservatives-out-of-race-in-al...

Wow, that is a super-high number of undecideds this late in the campaign. Is that normal for Nfld? I think the SJMP results suggest some Conservatives may be wanting to vote NDP if they wish to avoid another term until a Liberal MP and with the Conservatives so far back, these results might help to nudge that undecided factor.

If the NDP adds to its great 500 strong SJ rally and wins SJMP, then this bodes very well for the party heading in to the next provincial election. Dunderdale has blundered by backing the still very unpopular Conservatives. Any info on Labrador? Is the NDP showing any signs of a rebuild there?

Wed, 2011-04-20 21:17

#87

Anonymouse

Marissal has clarified that the CROP poll is a national poll. I'm hoping for something else now

Wed, 2011-04-20 21:35

#88

nicky

Mansbridge has jusr reported that Crop is rumoured to place the NDP FIRST in Quebec

Wed, 2011-04-20 21:43

#89

NorthReport

Paul Gross,

Great to hear from you.

And thanks for your good news post.

Wed, 2011-04-20 21:53

#90

knownothing knownothing's picture

They said NDP is in the 30's in Quebec!

Wed, 2011-04-20 21:54

#91

Centrist

nicky wrote:

Mansbridge has jusr reported that Crop is rumoured to place the NDP FIRST in Quebec

Yeah, that's the chatter on Twitter right now. I knew that Quebec voters were the most fickle in Canada, but if this is true, it's akin to a political nuclear bomb.

Wed, 2011-04-20 22:07

#92

Anonymouse

If the NDP is really in the 30s and ahead of the BQ, then chances are it would win at least 20 seats in Quebec on election day.

Wed, 2011-04-20 22:25

#93

Sean in Ottawa

As I have been saying for years here-- all political change happens quickly-- it gets set up but moves fast when it does. Quebec has a particular history of this. Perhaps because the media is more responsive to change.

Wed, 2011-04-20 22:54

#94

Hunky_Monkey

I worried that we peaked in support in the low to mid 20's with about two weeks to go. I worried we may not have been able to sustain that support. But... wow... and what if we continue increasing support in Quebec? What if we hit the high 30's or low 40's?

This could be BIG! And if we do continue to increase support in Quebec, the other provinces especially Ontario will take note.

Wed, 2011-04-20 23:06

#95

JeffWells

The "At Issue" panel tonight is largely devoted to the poll, even before its release:

http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/TV_Shows/The_National/1233408557/ID=18916...

Everything changes now. All the stale narratives are out the window.

Wed, 2011-04-20 23:40

#96

Krago

The one advantage to the NDP being at 12.7% in Ontario in the Nanos poll is that there is a good chance the party could rebound to a normal level (17-18%) within the next couple of days. If that happens, it will push the national number up an additional 1.5-2% and feed into the whole the-NDP-has-got-momentum-how-high-can-they-go meme.

Wed, 2011-04-20 23:46

#97

Sean in Ottawa

So Boom Boom what do you think?

Wed, 2011-04-20 23:48

#98

Stockholm

Not to mention the likely "echo" effect. When people in Ontario wake up to screaming headlines about the NDP conquering the BQ in Quebec in a way that the Liberals and Tories were never able to do - it could start to create some big momentum for the NDP in the rest of Canada!

Wed, 2011-04-20 23:49

#99

jimmyjim

Fife just tweeted the QU nubmers:

Crop poll in Que: NDP @ 36, BQ 31, Con 17. Libs 13

Wed, 2011-04-20 23:49

#100

jimmyjim

Fife just tweeted the QU nubmers:

Crop poll in Que: NDP @ 36, BQ 31, Con 17. Libs 13

Wed, 2011-04-20 23:55

#101

Pierre C yr

This is huge and will have spillover effects! Ridings on NB borders could be as affected as Ontario seats. The next week will be a wild ride. This has an ADQ feel to it like Chantal Hebert said... NDP could pick up 30 seats in Quebec alone with even a low 30 take! I think the Ignatieff and Duceppe bashing of Layton especially in the debates of 'you'll never be elected' is taking root in the minds of people and they are realizing they are being told who not to vote for in a particularly nasty way. No one tells canadians who to vote for.

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