Federal polling - April 19

I Have been reading this site for years. You have provided an info flow for a political junkie.

i am a 58 year old long time NDP Supporter. The move to the right has forced many of us to hide under our beds until we

had the strength to come up for air.

This news from Quebec will hopefully energize all of us who have been beaten down by Harper.

We need to keep pushing NOW. We may only get this one brief moment to enact change. The cons and the libs now have little time to react. Let's keep working..

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201104/20/01-43...

Be prepared to see the NDP drop in the ROC.

40% in Montreal!!!

It's up at cyberpress.ca now.

I wanted to live long enough to see this, but I won't die happy for at least another 10 days.

Another great stat in the poll: long deemed to be "soft", the NDP vote in Quebec is apparently solidifying—to a considerable degree:

Quote:

Mieux encore, les appuis au NPD se solidifient. Pas moins de 77% des personnes sondées qui comptent appuyer les troupes de Jack Layton ont «certainement» l'intention d'aller voter le 2 mai, jour du scrutin. Les électeurs qui comptent appuyer le NPD sont plus mobilisés que ceux du Bloc québécois (75%) et autant que ceux qui comptent donner leur appui au Parti conservateur.

If this holds, the NDP could be the Official Opposition and Jack would be called upon to form a government when Harper fails.

Jack Layton’s New Democratic Party has surged past the Gilles Duceppe’s faltering Bloc Québécois and is now in first place in Quebec, according to an Ekos public opinion poll released exclusively to iPolitics. The poll, conducted earlier this week, found the New Democrats have jumped 10 percentage points since the eve of the leaders debate to 31.1 per cent while the Bloc has dropped like a rock by 7.4 percentage points to 23.7 per cent. The Liberals are steady at 20.6 per cent while the Conservatives have dropped slightly to 16.9 per cent.

http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/21/ndp-surges-in-quebec-bloc-quebecois-dropp...

To keep this going the NDP is going to have to pretend that they think they can rise further (so that they aren't seen as peaking early) and why not? If the BQ can drop to 31%, they can surely drop to 29%, if the Libs can drop to 13% and lose all semblance of support among anglophones, they can drop to 8%, and so on and so forth. The CPC have also dropped but not nearly as much as the other parties. This indicates that a party is still needed to replace the Conservatives in those 10 incumbents seats.

This is a game-changer.

Fresh off the press by Frank Graves of Ekos one minute ago:

"NDP surges to TOP place in Quebec" - WOW!!

http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/21/ndp-surges-in-quebec-bloc-quebecois-dropp...

Here's the Ekos poll.

Also, I realize I was too hasty in posting my comment about vote solidification: the 77% number isn't actually the percentage of people who are sure they're gonna vote NDP but just those who are certain they are gonna vote on May 2.

The rest of the EKOS poll is also encouraging:

While the The NDP surge is most dramatic in Quebec, it is certainly not contained to there. Nationally, the NDP is now effectively tied with the Liberals at 24.9 per cent to 25.8 per cent. Both continue to lag behind the Conservatives, who were preferred by 34.5 per cent of respondents.

Stockholm wrote:

Not to mention the likely "echo" effect. When people in Ontario wake up to screaming headlines about the NDP conquering the BQ in Quebec in a way that the Liberals and Tories were never able to do - it could start to create some big momentum for the NDP in the rest of Canada!

Ignatieff has been talking lately (in my view rather foolishly) about what might happen if the Conservatives were to lose a confidence vote in a minority situation after the election. Of course he has been assuming the Liberals would finish second. It's a little early to count our chickens before they hatch, but this election is getting very interesting.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

As I have been saying for years here-- all political change happens quickly-- it gets set up but moves fast when it does. Quebec has a particular history of this.

Quite right. Sometimes all you can do is pound away with your message and hope that some kind of sea change creates an opening, and that you are prepared to exploit it when it happens. Big "flips" have happened in Alberta as well. I am not predicting any this time but it is not unknown.

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One struggle, many fronts.

We should be skeptical about any poll that is different from the others.

However, the momentum this could bring could be helpful-- assuming it is not "too early."

The mid point now in the polls for the NDP is still around 25% of the vote-- if the party keeps rising that is pretty good for now.

Maybe Layton's line should be directed to Conservative voters in Québec tomorrow. He should say speak squarely to these voters and say, "you do not need to vote Conservative to have a voice in Ottawa. We respect you and we respect your values."

The battle is moving on to new fronts...

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

We should be skeptical about any poll that is different from the others.

However, the momentum this could bring could be helpful-- assuming it is not "too early."

The mid point now in the polls for the NDP is still around 25% of the vote-- if the party keeps rising that is pretty good for now.

Actually Ekos is similar to Angus Reid in the national figures. CROP seems almost too good to be true, but this should inspire the NDP campaign across the country. Official Opposition may still be a long shot, but it's within the realm of possibility if we can pick up a bunch of unexpected seats in Quebec.

I know it's too early to cry victory and we have to worry about peaking too soon, but this is incredible! I was a federal NDP organizer in Quebec in the early 90s and I am so glad that I lived to see this day.  Jack Layton told me during the leadership race in 2002 that he was committed to making the NDP a force in Quebec politics, but that it would take 10 years and 3 elections to do it, and he was pretty much bang on the money.

This reminds me of the ADQ "ras-le-bol" surge in the 2007 Qc provincial election - and once those kinds of waves start, they are very hard to stop.  Hopefully Jack will catch fire in Ontario next!

Savage story on harper and medicare

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/978068--hepburn-...

Okay those of us in Ontario. Look deep in the polls !

We are the only PROVINCE that is really holding Jack Back.

It's now time for Toronto to follow Montreal and go Orange.

Jack is there all this weekend. If this new polling reverberates to Toronto this becomes a real serious battle

If he can turn Toronto orange he will be PM!

Closed for length.