Continuued from here.
Issues Pages:
Federal Polling - April 25
Mon, 2011-04-25 06:54
#1
Federal Polling - April 25
Mon, 2011-04-25 07:01
#2
Nanos Tracking Poll (April 21-24)
Canada: Conservative - 39.2%, Liberal - 25.6%, NDP - 23.6%, BQ - 6.5%, Green - 3.6%
Atlantic: Conservative - 47.5%, Liberal - 29.8%, NDP - 21.0%, Green - 1.7%
Quebec: NDP - 30.2%, BQ - 27.4%, Liberal - 22.0%, Conservative - 14.1%, Green - 2.3%
Ontario: Conservative - 47.8%, Liberal - 29.3%, NDP - 16.9%, Green - 5.4%
Prairies: Conservative - 47.9%, NDP - 24.2%, Liberal - 23.9%, Green - 3.0%
BC: Conservative - 44.1%, NDP - 27.4%, Liberal - 24.0%, Green - 3.9%
Mon, 2011-04-25 07:47
#3
With those Ontario and Atlantic numbers, the Tories will win a majority. Absolutely.
So does Iggy spend the next week attacking the Tories, to keep them from a majority, or the NDP, to keep them from becoming official opposition? Or does he climb into a nice, warm bed and pull the covers over his head?
Mon, 2011-04-25 07:52
#4
I think he will crawl all the way back to Harvard after the elections.
Mon, 2011-04-25 08:21
#5
Hopefully the Conservative numbers will soften or something by election day. Or else I hope that Nanos has them a bit too high, and that the other pollsters show them as lower.
Mon, 2011-04-25 08:22
#6
Nanos doesn't poll on Good Friday, but polls on Easter Sunday? A puzzlement.
If those are the numbers in Ontario, then the Cons will likely get a majority.
Mon, 2011-04-25 09:28
#7
Nanos doesn't poll on Good Friday, but polls on Easter Sunday? A puzzlement.
If those are the numbers in Ontario, then the Cons will likely get a majority.
I'm starting to become leery of nanoes numbers. They are usually out of wack with everyone else and they are just clueing in on the fact that the NDP is beating the bloc in Quebec. Other polls should come out soon.
Mon, 2011-04-25 09:32
#8
Arthur Cramer
@krago:
Count on Iggy to attack the NDP. The Libs are all about power, and power only.
Mon, 2011-04-25 09:36
#9
Nanos doesn't poll on Good Friday, but polls on Easter Sunday? A puzzlement.
And they're not polling today on Easter Monday. The next Nanos tracking poll update will be on Wednesday morning.
Mon, 2011-04-25 09:37
#10
Nanos doesn't poll on Good Friday, but polls on Easter Sunday? A puzzlement.
If those are the numbers in Ontario, then the Cons will likely get a majority.
I'm starting to become leery of nanoes numbers. They are usually out of wack with everyone else and they are just clueing in on the fact that the NDP is beating the bloc in Quebec. Other polls should come out soon.
I am also confident that the NDP is still rising in BC, Prairies, Quebec and Martitimes. I just really hope that the surge will also happen in Ontario...
Mon, 2011-04-25 09:52
#11
Nanos doesn't poll on Good Friday, but polls on Easter Sunday? A puzzlement.
If those are the numbers in Ontario, then the Cons will likely get a majority.
I'm starting to become leery of nanoes numbers. They are usually out of wack with everyone else and they are just clueing in on the fact that the NDP is beating the bloc in Quebec. Other polls should come out soon.
I am also confident that the NDP is still rising in BC, Prairies, Quebec and Martitimes. I just really hope that the surge will also happen in Ontario...
There are signs that it is. In Newmarket we finally have Newmarket signage, abiet mostly with Jack Laytons name on them with a few with Kassandra's. I think she may have come out of hiding because she may feel she has a better echance than she thought.
Plus at the Sihk festival it sound like it was almost an NDP rally with the reception Jack got. I predict Ontario will surprise everyone.
Mon, 2011-04-25 09:59
#12
Could the Sihk support have an impact on some ridings? Bramalea-Gore-Malton?Nanos doesn't poll on Good Friday, but polls on Easter Sunday? A puzzlement.
If those are the numbers in Ontario, then the Cons will likely get a majority.
I'm starting to become leery of nanoes numbers. They are usually out of wack with everyone else and they are just clueing in on the fact that the NDP is beating the bloc in Quebec. Other polls should come out soon.
I am also confident that the NDP is still rising in BC, Prairies, Quebec and Martitimes. I just really hope that the surge will also happen in Ontario...
There are signs that it is. In Newmarket we finally have Newmarket signage, abiet mostly with Jack Laytons name on them with a few with Kassandra's. I think she may have come out of hiding because she may feel she has a better echance than she thought. Plus at the Sihk festival it sound like it was almost an NDP rally with the reception Jack got. I predict Ontario will surprise everyone.
Mon, 2011-04-25 10:19
#13
The G&M's projected seat count based on the most recent Nanos poll, shows the Cons getting 150 seats, just a few shy of a majority. I believe that the margin of error for Nanos is higher than for other major polls, but the upward swing in Con support in Ontario is indeed concerning given the number of potential close races. Here's the pollster's take on this from today's G&M
Mon, 2011-04-25 10:23
#14
Could the Sihk support have an impact on some ridings? Bramalea-Gore-Malton?Nanos doesn't poll on Good Friday, but polls on Easter Sunday? A puzzlement.
If those are the numbers in Ontario, then the Cons will likely get a majority.
I'm starting to become leery of nanoes numbers. They are usually out of wack with everyone else and they are just clueing in on the fact that the NDP is beating the bloc in Quebec. Other polls should come out soon.
I am also confident that the NDP is still rising in BC, Prairies, Quebec and Martitimes. I just really hope that the surge will also happen in Ontario...
There are signs that it is. In Newmarket we finally have Newmarket signage, abiet mostly with Jack Laytons name on them with a few with Kassandra's. I think she may have come out of hiding because she may feel she has a better echance than she thought. Plus at the Sihk festival it sound like it was almost an NDP rally with the reception Jack got. I predict Ontario will surprise everyone.
There is no reason to believe it is isolated to Sihks. It is probably a sign of change in Ontario.
Mon, 2011-04-25 10:39
#15
Boom Boom
308.com is always to be taken with a grain of salt because of their methodology, but here's what they're saying today:
(excerpt of a longer piece)
The Conservatives are still at 38.6%, where they have been for most of the campaign. They are up one seat to 151. The Liberals are up 0.1 point to 27.5% but are down one seat to 75. The New Democrats are up 0.1 point to 19.1%, but are unchanged at 36 seats. The Bloc Québécois is down to 8.1% and unchanged at 45 seats while the Greens are down to 5.5%.
(I'm not posting much these days because frankly I don't have the energy to follow all these politics threads - and I'm working outside more, on spring cleaning, and trying to get the yard fixed up for gardening in the next month)
Mon, 2011-04-25 10:40
#16
Arthur Cramer
I simply don't believe anything I see on 308.com.
Mon, 2011-04-25 10:44
#17
Over the weekend, I've been watching the leaders on the news. My "gut" tells me that their internal polling has the Liberals tanking badly. Iggy looks more than defeated. Harper is focusing on attacking the NDP in NDP riddings, which leads me to believe the Conservatives have information that the Liberal votes are going NDP mostly and not Conservative-- but instills that the Liberal votes are still up for grabs because the hemorage is continuing.
Just a guess.
Mon, 2011-04-25 11:00
#18
I have also been watching the news. My feeling is that Harper thinks he is going to win an majority by putting the West against Quebec. He has written off the 11 seats in Quebec, either feeling that he is better off not going there (that it is counter-productive) or that he can make more than up for it with his negative attack ads in English Canada attempting to demonize Layton and Duceppe as Quebecers (or easterners depending on your point of view). I would say he thinks that his competition now is the NDP. The Liberal vote is dropping in the West but unfortunately it is as likely to go Conservative as NDP in too many areas.
The Liberals are trying to salvage anything they can, particularly their ridings in Ontario. The infomercial was a desperate gamble. I expect it is too late. I expect Ekos to come out with a poll showing that the drop in Liberal fortunes has reversed and that Ignatieff is now as popular (or more popular) than Harper. This will be front page news at the Toronto Star.
The NDP is hanging on in English Canada and growing in Quebec still. If it grows much more there, it will be the Official Opposition. In between trips to Quebec, Layton will go to ridings where the party's internal polling shows that there is a good chance of the NDP winning. The radio campaign in British Columbia is intended to help in many close races there. I think there will be a lot of close races in the Lower Mainland.
The BLOC is doing whatever it can to defend itself. I don't know how effectively as I'm not in Quebec nor watch Quebec TV. Reading LaPresse is comforting but I'm not sure how unbiassed a source it is.
Mon, 2011-04-25 11:00
#19
Boom Boom
What I find odd about 308.com today is that there's no indication of the NDP surge in their numbers.
Mon, 2011-04-25 11:06
#20
I ran the Nanos poll through the tool I use and I get:
Con 155
Lib 48
NDP 65
BQ 40
Those are bad numbers -- we have to hope they are not true or do not hold
Mon, 2011-04-25 11:09
#21
Let's just hope that because of methodology (or something) Nanos is overestimating Harper's support. He's campaigning in NDP Ontario ridings Windsor and Sault Ste Marie today, so maybe he's worried that he's still not where he wants to be yet. (And hopefully those ridings will stay ours!)
Mon, 2011-04-25 11:14
#22
Let's just hope that because of methodology (or something) Nanos is overestimating Harper's support. He's campaigning in NDP Ontario ridings Windsor and Sault Ste Marie today, so maybe he's worried that he's still not where he wants to be yet. (And hopefully those ridings will stay ours!)
Harper seems to be ignoring the liberals and trying to stop the NDP. It looks like he is worried about the ND0.
Mon, 2011-04-25 11:19
#23
Let us be clear -- my numbers are not a prediction as I do not have faith in this poll as yet. But if those numbers did hold true that would be the likely result.
Mon, 2011-04-25 11:23
#24
What I find odd about 308.com today is that there's no indication of the NDP surge in their numbers.
In the Comments section of 308.com today, someone mentioned that most of the figures used for their Quebec projections come from polls issued prior to the French debate, and even some prior to the election call!
15% - pre-election
37% - pre-debate
49% - post-debate
Their numbers are obsolete, and that makes their projections irrelevant.
Mon, 2011-04-25 11:26
#25
Well that is the correct strategy -- the Liberals are without momentum and Harper going after the NDP shows that -- it is the biggest attack he could make on the Liberals -- to ignore them.As well he is still working on the big bad coalition theme.
And yes this is likely about the Liberals because with these numbers the NDP is already winning the most it can and the marginal flips that would stop the cons or not are mostly Liberal seats in Ontario-- at this point that is dpressing becuase the Liberals look to be failing.
The only way the NDP stops Harper is to have another massive surge this week. Layton cannot speak directly to that though without hurting himself in my opinion.
Mon, 2011-04-25 11:27
#26
Hopefully the threat of a Conservative majority will motivate Liberal and NDP voters to vote. It may reassure Conservative voters and cause some of them to not bother voting.
There will probably be a few more polls out during this final week that are less supportive of the Conservatives. NANOS consistently indicates higher Conservative strength than the other major pollsters. Still, the NANOS numbers showing high Conservative strength in Ontario is very worrisome.
Mon, 2011-04-25 11:50
#27
I have also been watching the news. My feeling is that Harper thinks he is going to win an majority by putting the West against Quebec. He has written off the 11 seats in Quebec, either feeling that he is better off not going there (that it is counter-productive) or that he can make more than up for it with his negative attack ads in English Canada attempting to demonize Layton and Duceppe as Quebecers (or easterners depending on your point of view).
Yup. I don't think you needed to understand French to hear just how desparate and angry he sounded in the French debate. I'm not sure if it's about winning a majority (and I don't think people are buying Harper's pitch) but about holding ground. If he loses Quebec, he's down to 132 seats without losing seats in Western or Atlantic Canada. Do you really think he can win more than 20 seats to make up for it?
Mon, 2011-04-25 11:51
#28
Boom Boom
Hopefully the threat of a Conservative majority will motivate Liberal and NDP voters to vote.
Amen to that. Also BQ voters.
Mon, 2011-04-25 11:59
#29
Malcolm
Pundits' Guide has a good analysis of the usual weaknesses of seat projectors across the board.
So, what does all that mean for the current election?
It means that:
- the Liberals and Bloc are still likely being overly favoured by all these seat prediction methodologies,
- the projection methodologies are going to wind up missing NDP gains, particularly if the party continues to climb in the polls, and that
- projected seat counts for the Conservatives will likely fall on either side of their final tally.
It also means that the "strategic voting" websites, who are basing their recommendations on seat projection/seat prediction methodologies like 308's are likely making a number of erroneous recommendations - another reason to be rid of those undemocratic and irresponsible projects once and for all - and that people voting in the Advance Polls shouldn't put a lick of confidence in them, as a result.
Mon, 2011-04-25 12:03
#30
Prairies: Conservative - 47.9%, NDP - 24.2%, Liberal - 23.9%, Green - 3.0%
2008 results for comparison: Con 59.1, NDP 17.7, Lib 13.7
Mon, 2011-04-25 12:08
#31
Prairies: Conservative - 47.9%, NDP - 24.2%, Liberal - 23.9%, Green - 3.0%
2008 results for comparison: Con 59.1, NDP 17.7, Lib 13.7
Which means that with any luck the Conservatives will lose seats on the Prairies.
Mon, 2011-04-25 12:33
#32
[url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/realitycheck/2011/04/pol... who's trying to be a wet blanket for the NDP:[/url]
Amongst the methodological problems that Gregg and others identify is the incredible shrinking response rate for polls conducted by telephone.
Thirty years ago, about 70-80 per cent of people called by pollsters agreed to be surveyed. Today, that rate is under 15 per cent and Gregg believes those people tend to be older, less well-educated and more rural than the general population.
But for the purposes of their polling, researchers are obliged to assume that the 15 per cent of callers who agree to spend 20 minutes talking to them are representative of the 85 per cent who are too busy or whatever to participate or who never pick up at all because they can identify a pollster through Caller ID.
The growing number of households without landlines also poses significant challenges.
...
In the process, non-trivial issues like margin of error, problems with samples and methodologies tend to get pushed aside.
Is that what's happening with the story of the NDP surge? That will be the subject of the next post.
Mon, 2011-04-25 14:28
#33
The Prairies include Alberta. Really becomes meaningless when you put three provinces together like that.
Mon, 2011-04-25 14:37
#34
New Environics:
CON 39
NDP 25
LIB 22
BQ 7
GRN 6
http://www.environics.ca/news-and-insights?news_id=76
In Quebec, we have seen massive change over the past week. Support for the NDP has surged to 41 percent (up 15 points), while support for the Bloc Québécois has declined to 28 percent (down nine points). Both the Liberals (15%, up one point) and Conservatives (12%, down six points) lag further behind.
Mon, 2011-04-25 14:43
#35
So the NDP now has a solid lead over the Liberals so best to ignore the Liberals for the rest of the campaign. The Liberals are toast and as this article states for the Liberals it is all about saving the furniture. What are we looking at for the Liberals - 50 seats now? Anyway who cares about them now as it is between Layton and Harper now. And the NDP is still surging.
Sun's Mao smear news to Liberal leader
Ignatieff's campaign handlers kept bad news story from him
The Liberals are rattled by the polls. Some acknowledge the campaign is in save-the-furniture mode, and some privately debate how many seats Ignatieff would have to win to stay on as leader
Mon, 2011-04-25 14:52
#36
surfdoc
Let's just hope that because of methodology (or something) Nanos is overestimating Harper's support. He's campaigning in NDP Ontario ridings Windsor and Sault Ste Marie today, so maybe he's worried that he's still not where he wants to be yet. (And hopefully those ridings will stay ours!)
I don't think there is much to worry about there. Windsor-West and Windsor-Tecumseh seem like a solid hold for the NDP. Essex on the other hand might see a bump from Harper's visit.
Mon, 2011-04-25 14:55
#37
I ran the Nanos poll through the tool I use and I get:
Con 155
Lib 48
NDP 65
BQ 40
Those are bad numbers -- we have to hope they are not true or do not hold
Let's face it... if Harper is even a few seats shy of a majority, you know there will be several Liberal MP's willing to cross the floor.
Mon, 2011-04-25 14:58
#38
WHY ARE SO MANY PEOPLE STILL SUPPORTING THE CONSERVATIVE?
I guess its the same reason why I still cant find a full time job after 2 years of looking. So many Canadians are just cold hearted assholes. Its so discouraging. Great news about the NDP though.
Mon, 2011-04-25 14:59
#39
double trouble post.
Mon, 2011-04-25 15:03
#40
Ok, the Liberals are definitely done as this Environics poll confirms - it's just going to get worse for the Liberals so what are the Liberals looking at getting now - 50 seats?
And remember this poll was taken before Jack's big rally in Montreal on Saturday!
Party 08 GE / Apr 5 / Apr 17 / Apr 21
Cons / 38 / 38 / 39 / 39 / up 1%
NDP / 18 / 20 / 22/ 25 / Up 7%
Libs / 26 / 25 / 24 / 22 / Down 4%
Bloc 10 / 8 / 9 / 7 / Down 3%
Grn / 7 / 8 / 6 / 6/ Down 1
Otr / 1 / 1/ 1/ 1 / No Change
And Environics are not convinced this will lead to a Cons majority.
Mon, 2011-04-25 15:08
#41
I guess it would depend on what their numbers for BC show. Because their Ontario numbers are not far off from Nanos's.
Mon, 2011-04-25 15:18
#42
Re the NDP at 41% in Quebec. The BQ won 49 seats with 38% in 2008. Not suggesting an equivalence between the votes of course, but the pundits who still say the NDP stand to win several seats polling these kind of numbers are either not awake to the new reality or want to keep people asleep to it.
Mon, 2011-04-25 15:29
#43
Of course there is a major effort to suppress the NDP surge no question about that, but legitimate pollsters like Environics cut through all the right-wing mainstream media bullshit.
For example has any news outlet broadscast the Environics poll yet?
I suppose useless seat projectors like 308.com, who has a zero track record, are still forecasting wonderful things for the Liberals. 
Mon, 2011-04-25 15:36
#44
but what about the conservative support? too bad i dont speak french because i want to move there and separate from the rest of Canada because ROC is fucked. Talking to myself as fucking usual
Mon, 2011-04-25 15:46
#45
Honestly if the following seats are not NDP after May 2, I won't get it:Re the NDP at 41% in Quebec. The BQ won 49 seats with 38% in 2008. Not suggesting an equivalence between the votes of course, but the pundits who still say the NDP stand to win several seats polling these kind of numbers are either not awake to the new reality or want to keep people asleep to it.
- Outremont
- Gatineau
- Hull-Aylmer
- Abitibi--Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou
- Jeanne-Le-Ber
and these could realistically also be NDP gains:
- St-Lambert
- Brossard
- NDG
- Drummond
- Beauport-Limoilou
- Lasalle-Émard
Overall, it's not even wishful thinking to expect the NDP to get from 6 to 20 seats in Quebec at this stage.
Mon, 2011-04-25 15:50
#46
finois
Just went to the polls and we logged 2 more votes for Jack LAYTON.
mY NEIGHBOURS long time conservative supporters and born again christians.
When they reminded me to vote asked who i was voting for.
They then reminded me about Jack honesty and how they don't think Harper represents their values.
i felt like giving them a Hug. This is what happens when we have a surge
If this poll holds we will elect 40+ members in Quebec
That will mean 90 plus seats.
Keep the Faith..This is going to be an historic victory
Mon, 2011-04-25 15:56
#47
I am also optimistic but honestly 40 seats in Quebec would be such a shock. Like it has been said many times, the NDP doesn't have such a big machine to get the votes. More than 20, would be a great achievement but of course I would be over the moon to get 40 NDP MPs from Quebec after May 2. ;)Just went to the polls and we logged 2 more votes for Jack LAYTON.
mY NEIGHBOURS long time conservative supporters and born again christians.
When they reminded me to vote asked who i was voting for.
They then reminded me about Jack honesty and how they don't think Harper represents their values.
i felt like giving them a Hug. This is what happens when we have a surge
If this poll holds we will elect 40+ members in Quebec
That will mean 90 plus seats.
Keep the Faith..This is going to be an historic victory
Mon, 2011-04-25 16:01
#48
The big question is whether the big pitch by the P.Q. heavy weights can bring back some of the Bloc support. On one level, I think that the Bloc should be helped by P.Q. interventions, but then I saw that Parizeau's return did not go all that well.
He really looks and acts his age.
Looking at Environics, it looks like Ontario is shifting sharply to the Conservatives, not the N.D.P. which would confirm a large Conservative majority if true.
Another question, was the very good performance by Ignatieff on Radio Canada last night enough to bring the Liberals back up above the Quebec Conservatives, who presumably have some pretty strong support around Quebec Ciy and in some rural areas from those wanting to make sure they can get the largesse from a Conservative government. The perfomrance m
Might make some difference in the Montreal area which the Conservatives really seem to have written off completely, but not likely to change the NPD/Bloc dynamic.
Mon, 2011-04-25 16:08
#49
The Prairies include Alberta. Really becomes meaningless when you put three provinces together like that.
Sort of; in theory the larger sample created by bundling all three provinces together (despite the obvious downside(s) to doing so) means that any movement shown should be more accurate than the alternatives. Though when you consider the problems of regional/demographic breakdowns in general... well, no matter what area is sampled you're only getting a very rough indication of what's going on.
Mon, 2011-04-25 16:14
#50
I am also optimistic but honestly 40 seats in Quebec would be such a shock. Like it has been said many times, the NDP doesn't have such a big machine to get the votes. More than 20, would be a great achievement but of course I would be over the moon to get 40 NDP MPs from Quebec after May 2. ;)Just went to the polls and we logged 2 more votes for Jack LAYTON.
mY NEIGHBOURS long time conservative supporters and born again christians.
When they reminded me to vote asked who i was voting for.
They then reminded me about Jack honesty and how they don't think Harper represents their values.
i felt like giving them a Hug. This is what happens when we have a surge
If this poll holds we will elect 40+ members in Quebec
That will mean 90 plus seats.
Keep the Faith..This is going to be an historic victory
I don't get why people assume that people are too stupid to find the polls without someone holding thier hand? The big bloc machine failed to beat the accidental Tories even with no machine ever. Btw the NDP does have thier own machinevwhich is most likely recruiting people too it like mad now. The core I here is well trained and the rest euthasic. It is silly to assume that the NDP has no plans in place to exploit this opportunity to the fullest although I still maintain that assuming the massive political machine is needed is insulting the intelligence and passion of Quebecers.
Mon, 2011-04-25 16:16
#51
Jack Layton is Michael Ignatieff's Pac-man: Jack is eating away at his support one dot at a time
http://warrenkinsella.com/2011/04/tim-and-me-in-todays-hill-times/