Pulling the vote makes a difference in close ridings. Whether you win by 200 or lose by 200 can be determined by e-day. On the other hand, if the NDP is really ahead by 13 over the BLOC, there should be lots of ridings where the E-Day machine is not a critical factor. As well, when there is a "wind" for change, there are a lot of votes that will come a party's way from the "undecided". I am wondering how many voters are undecided because they are not sure which of the two opposition parties is the one to vote for in order to block the Conservatives in the ROC.
Federal Polling - April 25
Mon, 2011-04-25 16:19
#52
Mon, 2011-04-25 16:25
#53
finois
I am also optimistic but honestly 40 seats in Quebec would be such a shock. Like it has been said many times, the NDP doesn't have such a big machine to get the votes. More than 20, would be a great achievement but of course I would be over the moon to get 40 NDP MPs from Quebec after May 2. ;)Just went to the polls and we logged 2 more votes for Jack LAYTON.
mY NEIGHBOURS long time conservative supporters and born again christians.
When they reminded me to vote asked who i was voting for.
They then reminded me about Jack honesty and how they don't think Harper represents their values.
i felt like giving them a Hug. This is what happens when we have a surge
If this poll holds we will elect 40+ members in Quebec
That will mean 90 plus seats.
Keep the Faith..This is going to be an historic victory
I don't get why people assume that people are too stupid to find the polls without someone holding thier hand? The big bloc machine failed to beat the accidental Tories even with no machine ever. Btw the NDP does have thier own machinevwhich is most likely recruiting people too it like mad now. The core I here is well trained and the rest euthasic. It is silly to assume that the NDP has no plans in place to exploit this opportunity to the fullest although I still maintain that assuming the massive political machine is needed is insulting the intelligence and passion of Quebecers.
we are looking if the growth continues at 41% as per environics
The pundits are wrong here.
that only leaves 59% for all the other parties in Quebec.
THIS WOULD BE AN OVERWHELMING VICTORY.
I'M not saying the polls will hold. But 41% if it does will deliver a majority of seats
That would be 37/38
This is the real Thing. The press is trying to convince us otherwise!
We are strong and building..
Mon, 2011-04-25 16:35
#54
I am also optimistic but honestly 40 seats in Quebec would be such a shock. Like it has been said many times, the NDP doesn't have such a big machine to get the votes. More than 20, would be a great achievement but of course I would be over the moon to get 40 NDP MPs from Quebec after May 2. ;)Just went to the polls and we logged 2 more votes for Jack LAYTON.
mY NEIGHBOURS long time conservative supporters and born again christians.
When they reminded me to vote asked who i was voting for.
They then reminded me about Jack honesty and how they don't think Harper represents their values.
i felt like giving them a Hug. This is what happens when we have a surge
If this poll holds we will elect 40+ members in Quebec
That will mean 90 plus seats.
Keep the Faith..This is going to be an historic victory
I don't get why people assume that people are too stupid to find the polls without someone holding thier hand? The big bloc machine failed to beat the accidental Tories even with no machine ever. Btw the NDP does have thier own machinevwhich is most likely recruiting people too it like mad now. The core I here is well trained and the rest euthasic. It is silly to assume that the NDP has no plans in place to exploit this opportunity to the fullest although I still maintain that assuming the massive political machine is needed is insulting the intelligence and passion of Quebecers.
we are looking if the growth continues at 41% as per environics
The pundits are wrong here.
that only leaves 59% for all the other parties in Quebec.
THIS WOULD BE AN OVERWHELMING VICTORY.
I'M not saying the polls will hold. But 41% if it does will deliver a majority of seats
That would be 37/38
This is the real Thing. The press is trying to convince us otherwise!
We are strong and building..
As has been mentioned this is from before the Montreal Rally. The NDP could be higher by now. There is only 9 percent from 50 percent. How many seats do you think 41 percent could net us? How many with 50 percent?
Mon, 2011-04-25 16:38
#55
I am also optimistic but honestly 40 seats in Quebec would be such a shock. Like it has been said many times, the NDP doesn't have such a big machine to get the votes. More than 20, would be a great achievement but of course I would be over the moon to get 40 NDP MPs from Quebec after May 2. ;)Just went to the polls and we logged 2 more votes for Jack LAYTON.
mY NEIGHBOURS long time conservative supporters and born again christians.
When they reminded me to vote asked who i was voting for.
They then reminded me about Jack honesty and how they don't think Harper represents their values.
i felt like giving them a Hug. This is what happens when we have a surge
If this poll holds we will elect 40+ members in Quebec
That will mean 90 plus seats.
Keep the Faith..This is going to be an historic victory
I don't get why people assume that people are too stupid to find the polls without someone holding thier hand? The big bloc machine failed to beat the accidental Tories even with no machine ever. Btw the NDP does have thier own machinevwhich is most likely recruiting people too it like mad now. The core I here is well trained and the rest euthasic. It is silly to assume that the NDP has no plans in place to exploit this opportunity to the fullest although I still maintain that assuming the massive political machine is needed is insulting the intelligence and passion of Quebecers.
we are looking if the growth continues at 41% as per environics
The pundits are wrong here.
that only leaves 59% for all the other parties in Quebec.
THIS WOULD BE AN OVERWHELMING VICTORY.
I'M not saying the polls will hold. But 41% if it does will deliver a majority of seats
That would be 37/38
This is the real Thing. The press is trying to convince us otherwise!
We are strong and building..
As has been mentioned this is from before the Montreal Rally. The NDP could be higher by now. There is only 9 percent from 50 percent. How many seats do you think 41 percent could net us? How many with 50 percent?
IF and it is a BIG IF we could get 50% across PQ every seat is in play.
Mon, 2011-04-25 16:50
#56
NDP up 15% to an amazing 41%, while Conservatives drop 6% to only 12% in Quebec
So my question is, will the Conservatives still win any seats in Quebec?
Environics - April 21
Quebec
NPD - 41%, Up 15%
Bloc - 28%, Down 9%
Libs - 15%, Up 1%
Cons - 12%, Down 6%
Mon, 2011-04-25 16:50
#57
Here's a comparison between today's Nanos tracking poll and the results of the past three federal elections, by region:
Canada
Nanos (Apr. 24): Cons - 39.2%, Lib - 25.6%, NDP - 23.6%, BQ - 6.5%, Green - 3.6%
2008 Election: Cons - 37.7%, Lib - 26.3%, NDP - 18.2%, BQ - 10.0%, Green - 6.8%
2006 Election: Cons - 36.3%, Lib - 30.2%, NDP - 17.5%, BQ - 10.5%, Green - 4.5%
2004 Election: Cons - 29.6%, Lib - 36.7%, NDP - 15.7%, BQ - 12.4%, Green - 4.3%
Atlantic
Nanos (Apr. 24): Cons - 42.4%, Lib - 30.5%, NDP - 25.4%, Green - 1.7%, Oth - 0.0%,
2008 Election: Cons - 29.6%, Lib - 35.0%, NDP - 26.0%, Green - 6.0%, Oth - 3.3%
2006 Election: Cons - 34.5%, Lib - 39.9%, NDP - 22.7%, Green - 2.3%, Oth - 0.6%
2004 Election: Cons - 30.0%, Lib - 43.8%, NDP - 22.6%, Green - 3.0%, Oth - 0.5%
Quebec
Nanos (Apr. 24): BQ - 27.4%, Cons - 14.1%, Lib - 22.0%, NDP - 30.2%, Green - 2.3%, Oth - 4.0%
2008 Election: BQ - 38.1%, Cons - 21.7%, Lib - 23.8%, NDP - 12.2%, Green - 3.5%, Oth - 0.8%
2006 Election: BQ - 42.1%, Cons - 24.6%, Lib - 20.8%, NDP - 7.5%, Green - 4.0%, Oth - 1.1%
2004 Election: BQ - 48.9%, Cons - 8.8%, Lib - 33.9%, NDP - 4.6%, Green - 3.2%, Oth - 0.7%
Ontario
Nanos (Apr. 24): Cons - 47.8%, Lib - 29.3%, NDP - 16.9%, Green - 5.4%, Oth - 0.6%
2008 Election: Cons - 39.2%, Lib - 33.8%, NDP - 18.2%, Green - 8.0%, Oth - 0.8%
2006 Election: Cons - 35.1%, Lib - 39.9%, NDP - 19.4%, Green - 4.7%, Oth - 0.9%
2004 Election: Cons - 31.5%, Lib - 44.7%, NDP - 18.1%, Green - 4.4%, Oth - 1.3%
Prairies
Nanos (Apr. 24): Cons - 47.9%, Lib - 23.9%, NDP - 24.2%, Green - 3.0%, Oth - 1.0%
2008 Election: Cons - 59.2%, Lib - 13.7%, NDP - 17.6%, Green - 7.7%, Oth - 1.8%
2006 Election: Cons - 57.2%, Lib - 18.9%, NDP - 17.0%, Green - 5.3%, Oth - 1.5%
2004 Election: Cons - 52.9%, Lib - 25.4%, NDP - 15.3%, Green - 4.7%, Oth - 1.7%
BC
Nanos (Apr. 24): Cons - 44.1%, Lib - 24.0%, NDP - 27.4%, Green - 3.9%, Oth - 0.6%
2008 Election: Cons - 44.5%, Lib - 19.3%, NDP - 26.1%, Green - 9.4%, Oth - 0.8%
2006 Election: Cons - 37.3%, Lib - 27.6%, NDP - 28.5%, Green - 5.3%, Oth - 1.2%
2004 Election: Cons - 36.3%, Lib - 28.6%, NDP - 26.6%, Green - 6.3%, Oth - 2.3%
Mon, 2011-04-25 17:16
#58
I am also optimistic but honestly 40 seats in Quebec would be such a shock. Like it has been said many times, the NDP doesn't have such a big machine to get the votes. More than 20, would be a great achievement but of course I would be over the moon to get 40 NDP MPs from Quebec after May 2. ;)Just went to the polls and we logged 2 more votes for Jack LAYTON.
mY NEIGHBOURS long time conservative supporters and born again christians.
When they reminded me to vote asked who i was voting for.
They then reminded me about Jack honesty and how they don't think Harper represents their values.
i felt like giving them a Hug. This is what happens when we have a surge
If this poll holds we will elect 40+ members in Quebec
That will mean 90 plus seats.
Keep the Faith..This is going to be an historic victory
I don't get why people assume that people are too stupid to find the polls without someone holding thier hand? The big bloc machine failed to beat the accidental Tories even with no machine ever. Btw the NDP does have thier own machinevwhich is most likely recruiting people too it like mad now. The core I here is well trained and the rest euthasic. It is silly to assume that the NDP has no plans in place to exploit this opportunity to the fullest although I still maintain that assuming the massive political machine is needed is insulting the intelligence and passion of Quebecers.
Sorry guys, I didn't want to be a party pooper... I've been dreaming of an NPD surge in Quebec since I am 12 years old. I am 29 now and this is like a dream come true. I was part of the team that got Mulcair elected in his first by-election. If the NDP is at 41%, for sure this is beyond having a machine or not. This would mean an outstanding orange wave going all over Quebec.
I remember something really important in regards of the "machine behind getting the votes", something that got me putting things in perspectives. When the ADQ surge happened in the provincial election, I was working for a Liberal MP, a progressive one. We did all the good work all campaign long, pointing out our voters and we had a strong campaign. Then came the day of the election. We made sure we got our voters to vote (it has nothing to do with treating people like they are stupid, but some are too old to get to the polls... for example). But some voters we identified as Liberals were now voting for ADQ and we realised in the middle of the election day that we were also getting the ADQ vote out with our hard work. This could happen also to the Bloc vs NDP. With such an enormous trend and wave, you're right, this could also goes beyond an actual machine. I am a believer and I honestly believe the NDP could go beyond expectations in Quebec in this federal election.So we never know ;)
With 40-45 seats in Quebec, the NDP could actually form a minority government. THAT would be amazing! 40 seats in Quebec, 2 in Newfoundland, 1 or 2 in New-Brunswick, 4-5 in Nova Scotia, 20 in BC, 2 in Alberta, 3 in Saskatchewan, 4 in Manitoba, 1 or 2 in the Northern Territories and 20-25 in Ontario = 97- 105!!
Mon, 2011-04-25 17:39
#59
finois
new ekos poll
this is getting really nuts now!
The NDP has steamrolled over the Liberal Party to land in second place nationally behind the front-running Conservatives, a new poll shows.
The EKOS-iPolitics survey of more than 3,000 Canadians finds 28 per cent of decided voters now support the NDP, compared to 23.7 per cent who plan to vote Liberal. The Conservatives hold less than a six-point lead, sitting with 33.7 per cent support with just one week to go before election day.
Pollster Frank Graves calls it an unprecedented turn and "astonishing shift" for the NDP, which has traditionally trailed the two other main federal parties. Leader Jack Layton is climbing most dramatically in Quebec, but building momentum in all regions of the country.
"We have seen almost from Day One a slow, steady and now a dramatic rise where the NDP has gone from 14 points in a pre-writ poll to 28 points," Graves said. "That is a doubling - I've never seen anything close to that."
Mon, 2011-04-25 17:41
#60
Let's just hope that because of methodology (or something) Nanos is overestimating Harper's support. He's campaigning in NDP Ontario ridings Windsor and Sault Ste Marie today, so maybe he's worried that he's still not where he wants to be yet. (And hopefully those ridings will stay ours!)I don't think there is much to worry about there. Windsor-West and Windsor-Tecumseh seem like a solid hold for the NDP. Essex on the other hand might see a bump from Harper's visit.
Nanos has something like a nine percent error margin on its latest numbers. They also don't mention the Greens in their list of parties, thus underweighting them a tad. Thus, I would take their polls with a huge grain of salt.
Mon, 2011-04-25 17:44
#61
Steve_Shutt
I for one am quite comfortable with the poll results only slowly registering with sites like 308.com. That was the goal of the site's methodology from the start - to have swings register slowly and not move wildly. When the numbers start to move in our favour, and they will, his report this next weekend (in both the Globe and le Devoir) will be gold for us.
If it was as responsive as you suggest any slight blip of Liberal support would be shown as the surge fading out. Slow and steady people.
Mon, 2011-04-25 17:55
#62
Link?
Mon, 2011-04-25 17:56
#63
I am also optimistic but honestly 40 seats in Quebec would be such a shock. Like it has been said many times, the NDP doesn't have such a big machine to get the votes. More than 20, would be a great achievement but of course I would be over the moon to get 40 NDP MPs from Quebec after May 2. ;)Just went to the polls and we logged 2 more votes for Jack LAYTON.
mY NEIGHBOURS long time conservative supporters and born again christians.
When they reminded me to vote asked who i was voting for.
They then reminded me about Jack honesty and how they don't think Harper represents their values.
i felt like giving them a Hug. This is what happens when we have a surge
If this poll holds we will elect 40+ members in Quebec
That will mean 90 plus seats.
Keep the Faith..This is going to be an historic victory
I don't get why people assume that people are too stupid to find the polls without someone holding thier hand? The big bloc machine failed to beat the accidental Tories even with no machine ever. Btw the NDP does have thier own machinevwhich is most likely recruiting people too it like mad now. The core I here is well trained and the rest euthasic. It is silly to assume that the NDP has no plans in place to exploit this opportunity to the fullest although I still maintain that assuming the massive political machine is needed is insulting the intelligence and passion of Quebecers.
Sorry guys, I didn't want to be a party pooper... I've been dreaming of an NPD surge in Quebec since I am 12 years old. I am 29 now and this is like a dream come true. I was part of the team that got Mulcair elected in his first by-election. If the NDP is at 41%, for sure this is beyond having a machine or not. This would mean an outstanding orange wave going all over Quebec.
I remember something really important in regards of the "machine behind getting the votes",
something that got me putting things in perspectives. When the ADQ surge happened in the provincial election, I was working for a Liberal MP, a progressive one. We did all the good work all campaign long, pointing out our voters and we had a strong campaign. Then came the day of the election. We made sure we got our voters to vote (it has nothing to do with treating people like they are stupid, but some are too old to get to the polls... for example). But some voters we identified as Liberals were now voting for ADQ and we realised in the middle of the election day that we were also getting the ADQ vote out with our hard work. This could happen also to the Bloc vs NDP. With such an enormous trend and wave, you're right, this could also goes beyond an actual machine. I am a believer and I honestly believe the NDP could go beyond expectations in Quebec in this federal election.So we never know ;)With 40-45 seats in Quebec, the NDP could actually form a minority government. THAT would be amazing! 40 seats in Quebec, 2 in Newfoundland, 1 or 2 in New-Brunswick, 4-5 in Nova Scotia, 20 in BC, 2 in Alberta, 3 in Saskatchewan, 4 in Manitoba, 1 or 2 in the Northern Territories and 20-25 in Ontario = 97- 105!!
This was not meant as an attack on you more on people in the media who keep saying that ad nosium.
BTW 28 to 33 percent makes who becomes PM almost unpridictable.
Mon, 2011-04-25 17:59
#64
More good, scratch that, fantastic news for the NDP
Holy shit! The NDP are closing in on Harper!!!
EKOS
Cons - 33.7%
NDP - 28%
Libs - 23.7%
NDP leapfrogs Liberals to land in second spot in 'astonishing' twist
http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/25/ndp-leapfrogs-liberals-to-landin-second-s...
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:03
#65
With the Environics numbers for the Conservatives in QC, they (probably) lose every riding except maybe la Beauce with Maxime Bernier. With the Liberals numbers, it is likely a complete wipeout (0 seats) in Quebec. The only way they hold on is if they can stay above 50% in any of their Montreal seats.
NDP is looking at 40-50 seats, the BQ is looking at the balance minus maybe Maxime's seat. Wild card: What happens to Andre Arthur? I predict with those numbers he loses, but to who? the BQ or the NDP?
Btw, those numbers may be before Jack's rally but they correspond with the opening of the advance polls
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:03
#66
Holy crap! Are you sure that's not a misprint? 
It's almost too good to be true and I wonder what's going to go wrong.
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:04
#67
knownothing
yeah EKOS 28 Nationally and 39 in Quebec
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:06
#68
5-6% gap on Harper, that is about as close as the Liberals have gotten in a long time. Time to tell those "only the Liberals can stop the Conservatives" commentators to talk a sip of the shut-up sauce.
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:07
#69
Looks like an NDP government is within reach if Ontario would just break. Why wont that province break!!!!
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:14
#70
So Nanos thinks the Cons are close to a majority. Frank Graves sees an NDP caucus of over 100, and a clear lead for the potential NDP led coailtion government over the Cons in seats and popular vote. Environics has the Cons at 33-4 percent and about 14 percent undecided.
Who are we supposed to believe?
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:15
#71
Read the whole article.
The NDP is obviously still surging - could the NDP win the most number of seats?
And if they did could Layton make an arrangement with either Harper or Ignatieff or whoever replaces him to keep the government or would the Liberals and the conservatives gang up against Layton. I wonder what Harper is thinking about the coalition of losers now.
As I have been saying for a long time forget the Liberals.
But this has to be a very, very bad day for Harper.
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:16
#72
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:17
#73
Let's focus on the EKOS poll right now - it just came out and people have not even had a chance to digest it.
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:17
#74
finois
Let's everyone on here committ over the next week to do evErything we can to help this positive message .
We should be on every blog / newspaper / twitter to keep this going.
We are 6 points behind. DOWN WITH HARPER..LONG LIVE OUR DREAM
Let's become government.
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:20
#75
More good, scratch that, fantastic news for the NDP
Holy shit! The NDP are closing in on Harper!!!
EKOS
Cons - 33.7%
NDP - 28%
Libs - 23.7%
NDP leapfrogs Liberals to land in second spot in 'astonishing' twist
http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/25/ndp-leapfrogs-liberals-to-landin-second-s...
The EKOS poll looks bizarre. It's unlikely the NDP is that high, or that close to the Cons. Most polls show the Cons much higher than that. As you have said in the past, EKOS is not a very reliable pollster.
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:21
#76
Let's focus on the EKOS poll right now - it just came out and people have not even had a chance to digest it.
You've said in the past that EKOS is a terrible pollster.
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:22
#77
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/strength-in...
Ekos says something very different and Nanos appears to be out to lunch this whole election. He is just catching up to the fact that the NDPis leading in Quebec. Does anyone have the break down for Ekos?
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:24
#78
I've always thought EKOS has exaggerated the Liberal vote. Nanos is a Conservative pollster. As far as I know, Environics is un-affiliated. This is a large poll and taken more recently than the Environics poll. The results in Quebec are very similar between the Environics and EKOS pollster. I'm inclined to believe this poll.
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:25
#79
I am getting in the process of getting the breakdown but it is not exact numbers.
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:28
#80
Anyone saying the Liberals are going to get more than 50 seats now is starting to sound odd.
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:31
#81
With the Environics numbers for the Conservatives in QC, they (probably) lose every riding except maybe la Beauce with Maxime Bernier. With the Liberals numbers, it is likely a complete wipeout (0 seats) in Quebec. The only way they hold on is if they can stay above 50% in any of their Montreal seats.
NDP is looking at 40-50 seats, the BQ is looking at the balance minus maybe Maxime's seat. Wild card: What happens to Andre Arthur? I predict with those numbers he loses, but to who? the BQ or the NDP?
The Environics poll for Quebec is a bit odd. The Cons are unlikely to lose all their seats, nor are the Liberals. In fact, the Liberals and Conservatives may actually gain seats in Quebec if the NDP continues to take votes away from the BQ. And the BQ will probably still hold the majority of its seats because of its vote distribution.
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:32
#82
Why is Ekos a terrible pollster? Wasn't the sample size large (3000 or something)? Is there something wrong with their methodology?
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:34
#83
I've always thought EKOS has exaggerated the Liberal vote. Nanos is a Conservative pollster. As far as I know, Environics is un-affiliated. This is a large poll and taken more recently than the Environics poll. The results in Quebec are very similar between the Environics and EKOS pollster. I'm inclined to believe this poll.
Nanos has always seemed pretty objective to me. How do we know he is a Conservative?
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:35
#84
The NDP should be looking at picking up more seats in Alberta now.
This is another big, big day for Layton, following on the heels of that spectacular event in Montreal on Saturday.
And now a Layton Town Hall planned for Ontario, Toronto actually on Tuesday at 3 PM Vancouver time.
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:35
#85
Why is Ekos a terrible pollster? Wasn't the sample size large (3000 or something)? Is there something wrong with their methodology?
I'm not saying they are a terrible pollster, but up until this month, many posters here such as North Report have said they are a pollster whose numbers shouldn't be trusted.
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:37
#86
The spokesperson for Nanos said so on National Television. He is also doing polls for CTV-Globe which are notorious for publishing unrealistic polls, slanted to the right.
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:40
#87
We are 6 points behind. DOWN WITH HARPER..LONG LIVE OUR DREAM
Let's become government.
[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDBlqu6KF4k]I want to be the minority![/url]
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:42
#88
Nik Nanos supports the Conservatives slipped out during an interview on Power Play last week. Don Martin caught him on it.
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:48
#89
I didn't know Nik Nanos was an admitted Conservative supporter. That's interesting. But he has still had a better track record with predicting election results (eg. 2004, 2006) than very biased Conservative pollsters like Ipsos-Reid.
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:55
#90
Amazing heard it and they are doing everything to downplay it, but the surge is real and it is strong. Funny Quebec is giving us enough momentum to start moving people in other provinces. We might have just enough oomph to move ontario to 26% or so. That would be enough to make for some strange final numbers.
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:55
#91
The NDP should be looking at picking up more seats in Alberta now.
This is another big, big day for Layton, following on the heels of that spectacular event in Montreal on Saturday.
And now a Layton Town Hall planned for Ontario, Toronto actually on Tuesday at 3 PM Vancouver time.
The other main possibilities are Edmonton East and Edmonton Centre, but the Liberals still have some life in Centre.
Mon, 2011-04-25 18:59
#92
True but Nanos didn't work for CTV-Globe then. His results for some parts of the country do not seem realistic. However, I expect his results to be very close to the actual results in the end. He will have to worry more about accuracy than pleasing his employers then.
Nanos doubles his sample sizes and I believe the sample is selected more randomly. I believe that the day off last Friday is a part of the reason his results vary so much from EKOS. Ekos's sample is from Friday to Sunday and much bigger than the Nanos sample.
I like to use a variety of pollsters. The online ones by Angus Reid is a favorite of mine to balance off Harris-Decima and Ipsos-Reid. Their methodology captures what younger people are thinking better in my opinion.
Mon, 2011-04-25 19:01
#93
Ontario
Conservative 38%
Liberal 32%
NDP 22%
Green 7%
With these numbers I don't think the Conservatives can win enough seats in Ontario to be even close to a majority, given that they will lose seats elsewhere.
Mon, 2011-04-25 19:01
#94
Mon, 2011-04-25 19:03
#95
Atlantic Canada
NDP 35%
Conservative 29%
Liberal 30%
Green 5%
With these numbers Jack could surpass Alexa's breakthrough in Atlantic Canada. What other possibilities for seats are there beside the obvious?
Mon, 2011-04-25 19:04
#96
The NDP in Alberta is a bit like the NDP in Quebec. It is in contention for 2 seats and a 2nd place finish in one, unless a surge happens that lifts the party to 30%, then the NDP wins Edmonton, Lethbridge, seats in the rural Northern half of the Province, and downtown Calgary. The chances that the NDP surges this election in Alberta = 0, but 2 seats and another 2nd place in Edmonton is within reason.
By the way, George Strombo owes Jack Layton a beer from the 2008 election when he guaranteed the NDP wouldn't win a seat in Alberta. Jack should fly George out to Edmonton to make good on his bet. Edmontonians would LOVE it!
Mon, 2011-04-25 19:07
#97
Quebec
NDP 39%
BLOC 26%
Conservative 15%
Liberal 13%
Green 6%
Wow! The surge in Quebec is confirmed and continues. Maybe both the Liberals and Conservatives will be wiped out or reduced to mating pairs in Quebec!
Mon, 2011-04-25 19:08
#98
Btw, I haven't taken the chance to say this yet about the most recent EKOS poll but WOOOOOOOHOOOO!
Those are ridiculously good numbers for the NDP, 4% higher than the party has EVER scored before under Layton and the best numbers on record since the 1980s.
In 1988, the NDP won Edmonton East by ~50 votes. Will it be deja vu all over again 
Tell the Liberals of Edmonton Centre not to miss the wave or they will be kicking themselves for the next 4-5 long, long, Laurie Hawn years.
Mon, 2011-04-25 19:09
#99
BC
Conservative 35%
NDP 30%
Liberal 25%
Green 10%
Mon, 2011-04-25 19:10
#100
Alberta
Conservative 58%
NDP 19%
Liberal 17%
Green 3%
Mon, 2011-04-25 19:11
#101
Prairies
Conservative 48%
Liberal 21%
NDP 21%
Green 8%