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Federal Election Talk (13)
Tue, 2011-04-26 08:50
#1
Federal Election Talk (13)
Tue, 2011-04-26 09:45
#3
knownothing
I noticed on Jack's schedule he has nothing on Friday. They haven't had one federal party leader visit Calgary, he should go there and make a statement, It would be huge!
Tue, 2011-04-26 09:52
#4
Arthur Cramer
So, the Winniepg Free Press through a staff writer Mary Agnes Welch write a story saying Kevin Lamoureux has nothing to worry about in Winnipeg, and that the left surge isn't going to help him. They say he is not getting help from the National party, but that the NDP is. Then they quote some professor I have never heard of saying, "yeah, that's right", and publish it as journalism. What a bunch of nonsense!
I called "the journalist". I am hoping she is going to call me back.
Pathetic!
Tue, 2011-04-26 12:02
#5
Globe and Mail is talking about a possible Prime Minister Jack Layton
Ontario will definitely be a hard nut to crack. The NDP was out of the race in so many seats in 2008, the Liberal incumbents are sometimes still perceived as strong or stronger than the NDP and sometimes "progressive," and the provincial party's atrophy since the early 90s has lead to a weak ground game in so many areas.
Tue, 2011-04-26 12:12
#6
@Anonymouse:
There are bright spots. If what I hear is correct, Alan Tonks is in a lot of trouble.
Tue, 2011-04-26 12:17
#7
Northern Shoveler
If they overtake the Liberals in seats this election then Toronto is their room to grow to be the party with the most seats. Some of those left liberals may be convinced to cross the floor. Mulcair and Boivin if they are both elected have deep roots in the left side of the Liberal party and I am sure they will be talking to their friends on the other side of the House. An Independent Liberal caucus supporting Jack in the House would be a dream. Who knows some of them might even be able to win NDP nominations in their ridings after having sat as an Independent.
Tue, 2011-04-26 12:22
#8
Steve_Shutt
The NDP has a policy, I think a good one, of not accepting "floor crossers" but a caucus of self-described progessive Liberals in support/coalition with the NDP is possible. They can subsequently choose to join the party and run as incumbents next time out.
Tue, 2011-04-26 12:32
#9
Steve_Shutt
double post
Tue, 2011-04-26 12:33
#10
Steve_Shutt
Triple post - sheesh, refresh already!
Tue, 2011-04-26 12:42
#11
NDP Leader Jack Layton is willing to reopen talks on the Canadian Constitution in an effort to get Quebec to sign the document once there was a "reasonable chance of success."
. . . .
The NDP leader, however, said he does not think the federal government should enter into constitutional negotiations with the provinces until "there is some reasonable chance of success."
"It's not a question of appeasing anybody. We have an historic problem. We have a quarter of our population who have never signed the Constitution. That can't go on forever," Layton said.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/26/cv-elec...
Tue, 2011-04-26 12:47
#12
I think CBC's headline on that story is deliberately and mischievously misleading. It's very annoying.
Tue, 2011-04-26 13:11
#13
Nonetheless, probably an issue that would have been better off not being broached.
Tue, 2011-04-26 13:18
#14
I tried to post but was too slow in another thread. The CBC changed the headline after many people complained about the way they originally put the headline. Though it still isn't acurate. Nice smear job CBC. I am so sick of the CBC right now, I almost do want to see it folded up for the cost savings. It needs an overhall badly. How is the CBC actually worse than the globe or star or even the national post. Sad
Tue, 2011-04-26 13:24
#15
Tue, 2011-04-26 13:24
#16
Nonetheless, probably an issue that would have been better off not being broached.
I think he was asked about it by a journalist. Maybe even a CBC journalist (I couldn't tell who it was). But granted, he did raise it himself during the debates. Maybe he really does think that?
Tue, 2011-04-26 13:29
#17
Maybe he really does think that?
I'm sure he does. But that's not the issue. Politics is.
Tue, 2011-04-26 14:00
#18
Road map to a potential NDP breakthrough
http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/04/26/road-map-to-a-potential-ndp-brea...
Tue, 2011-04-26 14:23
#19
Maybe he really does think that?
I'm sure he does. But that's not the issue. Politics is.
So are you saying that he should have refused to answer the question or changed the subject or something? Or not mentioned it during the debate?
For the record, I think he handled the question pretty well, given that he had no control over being asked it.
Compare Ignatieff in similar circumstances this morning. First he refused to even "go there" and then he basically gave the same answer as Jack in a much more long-winded way, while trying also to paint the NDP as deceitful on the question, as saying one thing in French and another in English.
Tue, 2011-04-26 14:27
#20
Toronto key to a majority for Harper, Canada's Conservatives
BRAMPTON, Ontario (Reuters) - The Toronto region is where the 2011 federal election will probably be decided as the Conservatives hunt for the extra seats they need to turn their minority government into a safe majority one.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/toronto-key-majority-canadas-conservatives-1448...
Tue, 2011-04-26 14:29
#21
I flipped by CTV News Channel this afternoon and the way Bob Fife is talking it sounds like the Cons believe they have a majority in the bag. Ugh. I assume this is based on internal polling?
Tue, 2011-04-26 14:37
#22
...meanwhile the Tories are running attack ads against the NDP. I wonder why? Part of the Tory strategy is to appear confident and to let people think that their victory is "inevitable" - even if they were in a panic - they would make sure to give people like Robert Fife the impression that everything was under control. Look at the Tory itinerary yesterday - Harper goes to Windsor. Why? Not because the tories have the remotest chance of winning seats from the NDP there - but to camouflage the fact that their real worry is losing next-dorr Essex to the NDP.
Tue, 2011-04-26 14:39
#23
BTW: Has anyone asked Ryan Dolby to comment on the election campaign and its latest shift? He must feel like a real idiot.
Maybe someone should host a "dinner for schmucks" and invite Ryan Dolby, Jean-Claude Rocheleau and Christelle Bogosta!
Tue, 2011-04-26 14:51
#24
EKOS shows a jump in Atlantic Canada. But when I put those numbers in the UBC Forecaster I get only four more seats:
St. John's South--Mount Pearl
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour
South Shore--St. Margaret's
Halifax West
And very close in Kings--Hants.
And two points behind in Sydney--Victoria.
Are there some local winners on top of this?
Tue, 2011-04-26 15:01
#25
bagkitty
Wilf: try Project Democracy and look at Central Nova (use the drop down below the riding map to specify the Ekos poll). I was there earlier today to see if they had "updated projections and advice on Monday" (as they have been promising to do) - the promise to update no longer appears, but strangely enough they are still referring to Central Nova as a safe Con seat. When you use the drop down to specify the Ekos poll from the 25th, you will notice the orange NDP vote (Parker) suddenly passes the blue Con vote (MacKay) on their riding projection bar graph. From this we learn two things: 1) the Cons may lose one of their cabinet ministers, and 2) Project Democracy is less about defeating Cons than promoting Liberals - their definition of strategic voting is obviously one that should be taken with a [s]grain[/s] shovel-full of salt.
Tue, 2011-04-26 15:03
#26
ARS is probably overdue for a poll. Let's hope their poll shows cements the narrative of a Conservative-NDP race.
Tue, 2011-04-26 15:15
#27
Steve_Shutt
A Coles Notes verson of Noam Chomsky's take on MSM can be reduced to: "To know what is REALY going on, read the Wall Street Journal as opposed to the NYT". In Canada, I'm not sure we truly have two separate papers but if one were to presume the Globe is the NYT then the Globe's Report On Business might be the WSJ. If the analogy holds we should all be encouraged by this:
Perhaps the headline ought to have read: "How To Profit From The Apporaching Socialist Hordes".
Oh dear, I am daring to dream.
Tue, 2011-04-26 15:23
#28
http://www.nowtoronto.com/news/story.cfm?content=180264
Alice Klein , a liberal, is known for always promoting the "non partisan" project democracy..
Tue, 2011-04-26 16:38
#29
remind
Ah....how timely...I saw Alice Klein mentioned in one of political threads takeitslowly, not sure which one, and then could not access the threads for awhile to slap up some threads from the 2008 election that we had on this shill for the Liberals.
So, this one will do, now that you have mentioned her again.
Alice Klein's Rhetorical Vapidity
Why is rabble giving Liberal Alice Klein of NOW a media platform?
Tue, 2011-04-26 17:20
#30
I flipped by CTV News Channel this afternoon and the way Bob Fife is talking it sounds like the Cons believe they have a majority in the bag. Ugh. I assume this is based on internal polling?
Perhaps, but it's also based on the fact that as the article I posted above says, if the NDP splits the vote in the 905, the Cons can pick up a lot of ridings, and with the NDP vote up and the Liberal vote down, there's a risk that can happen.
Tue, 2011-04-26 17:22
#31
Gun adviser to Conservatives likens Ontario police to the Nazi SS
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/gun-adviser-conservatives-likens-ontario-police...
Tue, 2011-04-26 17:29
#32
The CTV has been running with the idea that Jack Layton could become Prime Minister in its newscasts all day.
Tue, 2011-04-26 17:39
#33
WOW, CBC is reporting that Charlottetown, PEI may be a three-way race!
ETA: The NDP needs 4000 more votes than 2008 to win this. Doable?
Tue, 2011-04-26 17:52
#34
Steve_Shutt
Wow!
Wait a minute. Isn't the CBC opposed to us? :-)
Tue, 2011-04-26 17:58
#35
Nova Scotia babblers, what is the situation in NS? What are the chances the Federal NDP could breakthrough in a fashion similar to the last provincial campaign? Does the NDP have a snowball's chance in either Halifax West or CCMV?
Tue, 2011-04-26 18:06
#36
WOW, CBC is reporting that Charlottetown, PEI may be a three-way race!
ETA: The NDP needs 4000 more votes than 2008 to win this. Doable?
Sorry but no.
I watched the clip-- the CBC is reporting that the NDP thinks it is but actually is not providing an answer. There is a difference between thinking you are in contention and others thinking you are in contention.
i wish it were true but it is not.
Tue, 2011-04-26 18:18
#37
Andrew Cohen: What Harper might do with a majority
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/decision-canada/Andrew+Cohen+What+Harp...
Tue, 2011-04-26 18:19
#38
I am extremely curious to know what is going on in Dartmouth-Coal Harbour. We've heard lots of Liberal talking points about how popular Mike Savage is, how Peter Mancini couldn't take him down, how unpopular Dexter is, blah blah blah. Yet the NDP has a strong, high-profile, apparently-well-liked star candidate in Robert Chisholm, seems to have a decent machine, and is on the upswing in the polls while the Liberals are on the downswing. Is Savage going to buck the apparent trend and hang on? Inquiring minds want to know!
Tue, 2011-04-26 18:39
#39
Malcolm
The NDP has a policy, I think a good one, of not accepting "floor crossers" but a caucus of self-described progessive Liberals in support/coalition with the NDP is possible. They can subsequently choose to join the party and run as incumbents next time out.
That's essentially what happened in Saskatchewan in 1999-2003.
After the '99 election, the Liberals joined a coalition with the New Democrats. Two of the three Liberals were appointed to Cabinet and the third was elected Speaker. Eventually the Liberal Party effectively ousted their leader. One of the Liberals left the Cabinet and the coalition. The other Liberal Minister (and former leader) remained as an Independent, and the Speaker was appointed to Cabinet as an Independent. Both were nominated as New Democrats in the next provincial election, though they continued to sit as Independents. Both were defeated in the '03 election. I had both of them as my Minister during the coalition period.
Tue, 2011-04-26 19:04
#40
The NDP has sharpened its rhetoric. Jack is talking about "when we are elected" and "the NDP government." It's almost like he took the words out of Iggy's mouth 
Based on the online audio recording of the G&M editorial board, I am expecting a strident condemnation of Jack Layton when they issue their endorsement later this week.
Fingers crossed for the Harris-Decima and ARS numbers...Abacus? another Forum Research poll?
Tue, 2011-04-26 19:37
#41
Nova Scotia babblers, what is the situation in NS? What are the chances the Federal NDP could breakthrough in a fashion similar to the last provincial campaign? Does the NDP have a snowball's chance in either Halifax West or CCMV?
Halifax West stands a far better chance at electing a New Democrat on May 2nd that C.C.M.V.
Gordon Earle's victory in 1997 made the NDP one of the top 2 parties in that riding, while the second place showing in C.C.M.V. is very new. Plus, provincially, all of Halifax West votes NDP, while parts of C.C.M.V. contain some of the most die-hard conservative-minded voters you'll ever find.
Kings-Hants is a more interesting race, even with the popularity of Scott Brison. Three of the four provincial seats went NDP in 2009, while the other stayed Conservative. How this might play out federally this time will be worth watching.
Central Nova saw 4 of the 5 provincial ridings go NDP in 2009, and the 5th went NDP in a by-election soon afterwards. That's another one to watch, especially how all the Liberal voters who were dis-enfranchised by the Elizabeth May free pass in 2008 react; do they vote Liberal again, stay home, or try to defeat Peter McKay?
Stay tuned!
Tue, 2011-04-26 19:54
#42
Am I the only one to remember Jack Layton put Harper in power by helping him bring down the liberals in 2005 and we have been stuck with Harper ever since!. They have buried their constitution but I found it here: http://z6.invisionfree.com/Canadagovsim/index.php?showtopic=97&view=getn... Layton may form a Government but who cares? He has turned my beloved NDP into a populist mini-liberal party.His platform is a lie! He can not make a dime on cap and trade "this year" and probably not next. The agreements with all concerned must be negotiated. Where is the money to fund this "socially progressive" plastform? He will tell "Oh, I'm so sorry. I can't deliver on my promises because all the evil political and corporate forces won't do an instant sign on for Cap & Trade. It's not my fault," etc., excuse etc. excuse!!
Tue, 2011-04-26 19:57
#43
I am extremely curious to know what is going on in Dartmouth-Coal Harbour. We've heard lots of Liberal talking points about how popular Mike Savage is, how Peter Mancini couldn't take him down, how unpopular Dexter is, blah blah blah. Yet the NDP has a strong, high-profile, apparently-well-liked star candidate in Robert Chisholm, seems to have a decent machine, and is on the upswing in the polls while the Liberals are on the downswing. Is Savage going to buck the apparent trend and hang on? Inquiring minds want to know!
D-CH is absolutely winnable, in fact with recent numbers I would say likely. The sign war is about even in the parts I've observed; much will depend on the Tories. Savage has won largely because the Tory vote has been spectacularly low in that riding in recent elections and the right wing vote has been able to coalesce around Savage; Sadly I'm not seeing Ms Webber making a lot of movement there but overall trends show a modest - at least - gain for the NDP and it wouldn't take a huge jump for Dartmouth to shift. If Savage was as popular as Liberals often claim he'd cross the 40% threshold a little more often...
Tue, 2011-04-26 19:59
#44
The NDP candidate in Kings-Hants looks great. His campaign office is in the PC part of the riding, if I am not mistaken! It also starts getting a little Acadian in that neck of the woods if I am not mistaken...
Tue, 2011-04-26 20:05
#45
FYI
Liberal Constitution
http://cdn3.liberal.ca/files/2010/05/lpc-2009-constitution-en.pdf
Conservative Constitution
http://www.conservative.ca/media/20050319-CPCConstitution.pdf
NDP Constitution (NDP no longer use or believe the peamble)
http://z6.invisionfree.com/Canadagovsim/index.php?showtopic=97&view=getn...
Green Party Constitution
Tue, 2011-04-26 20:20
#46
Welcome, JenniferAnneTemple! Get on the Orange wave, there is still plenty of time before election day!
Tue, 2011-04-26 20:20
#47
Advance poll turnout up more than a third from 2008: Elections Canada
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/advance-poll-turnout-more-third-2008-elections-...
Tue, 2011-04-26 20:25
#48
Given the poll numbers, I think Ujjal Dosanjh and Bob Rae's decision to release a letter calling for people to vote against the NDP is actually going to lose them votes in Vancouver South and Toronto Centre, among Liberal-voting NDP sympathisers. That is...if anyone even noticed their letter 
Tue, 2011-04-26 20:28
#49
Nik Nanos must be feeling ill right now. His trendline is trailing...either he's right or every other polling company is wrong 
Tue, 2011-04-26 20:54
#50
BTW: Has anyone asked Ryan Dolby to comment on the election campaign and its latest shift? He must feel like a real idiot.
Maybe someone should host a "dinner for schmucks" and invite Ryan Dolby, Jean-Claude Rocheleau and Christelle Bogosta!
Can we invite Ashley MacIsaac to that dinner too?
Tue, 2011-04-26 21:09
#51
Christian Bourque, Leger Marketing, says that their poll is not ready for release but his overnight numbers show the NDP continuing to grow in the polls in Quebec. He says it has gone from a protest vote to a movement. He says the NDP is surging in the demographics most likely to vote.