Starting a new thread-- well this makes E-May happy.
New Poll in SGI
E-May 45%
G Lunn 38%
Issues Pages:
Election Polling April 26
Tue, 2011-04-26 14:48
#1
Election Polling April 26
Tue, 2011-04-26 14:50
#2
The May article is the second down on the right at the moment.
Tue, 2011-04-26 15:18
#3
Steve_Shutt
It was a gutsy gambit by May - one that has gotten her a lot of (perhaps well-deserved) criticism - but if she does actually pull out a win then they will have their beachead.
Tue, 2011-04-26 15:29
#4
This is an "INTERNAL" poll for the Green Party - God only knows what suspect method they used or if they even actually conducted a poll as opposed to just making it up. We have seen ridiculous Green party "polls" before. I remember the byelections in 2008 where the Green party released some "polls" that claimed they would get 17% in Desnethe-Churchill River-Mistissini and they ended up with 5% and that they were in contention in Van Quadra. Caveat emptor!!
Tue, 2011-04-26 16:21
#5
remind
Ya, that was the first thing I thought of as well Stock....and given their history in respect to "internal poolls" one can discount this big time.
Tue, 2011-04-26 16:38
#6
Not another Green party "internal poll." This is probably yet another lie. From what I've gathered it isn't going as well as the Greens had hoped for E. May in Saanich Gulf Islands. Too bad, I think the Green party's voice is needed in Parliament.
Tue, 2011-04-26 16:45
#7
The Liberals and NDP are running very active campaigns in SGI so the idea that they would both be in single digits seems absurd. I think may just scribbled these results on the back of a cocktail napkin.
Tue, 2011-04-26 17:04
#8
Well we'll see won't we
Perhaps there will be a helping of crow next week -- if this is misinformation it could lead voters astray and leave the seat in Lunn's hands.
Tue, 2011-04-26 17:12
#9
Leger poll for Lac. St Louis
Liberals - 36%
Conservatives - 30%
NDP - 17%
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/decision-canada/game+Saint+Louis/467...
This poll has the Cons a lot closer than the CROP poll earlier in the month which showed the Cons 20 points behind, and if true, it shows the NDP has barely grown in this riding since 2008 when it got 15%. This may indicate that the NDP is not surging in Montreal as much as other polls show. This is why I recommended caution on the other thread about the Quebec numbers.
However, this poll may not be entirely accurate either, since it appears to be a poll conducted specifically for Larry Smith's campaign, and as Stockholm correctly points out above, polls that are commissioned by a campaign often tend to have slightly inflated numbers for the person who commissioned the poll.
Tue, 2011-04-26 17:23
#10
There is no official report on this poll - its just referred to in L.Ian MacDonald's column - and we know that MacDonald and Larry Smith are close personal friends and that MacDonald has been pulling out all stops to promote Smith's candidacy every step of the way. I suspect that when that CROP poll came out showing Smith 20 points behind - it was a major blow to Smith and so he commissioned a poll and larded it with some lead up questions to get the "how would you vote?" question as close as possible - so he could then leak it to his buddy at the Gazette and put out the message that he still had a chance to win.
Tue, 2011-04-26 17:27
#11
I wonder if we will be hearing of a poll saying how the Conservatives are within a hair of knocking out Irwin Cotler in Mount Royal as well (since the National Post decided it was in contention).
Tue, 2011-04-26 17:28
#12
I agree that's very likely the case.
But with so much chaos and changes in the polls right now, it's hard to know what is really happening in Quebec eg. whether the NDP surge in Quebec is as big as some polls say, or if the Conservatives really are as low as others polls claim. In the above article, MacDonald calls the CROP poll showing a huge surge for the NDP "preposterous".
MacDonald does know the Quebec ridings well, so while he is a Con spin-doctor, he could be right that some of the polls are off in some places.
Tue, 2011-04-26 17:29
#13
BertramPotts
Leger poll for Lac. St Louis
Liberals - 36%
Conservatives - 30%
NDP - 17%
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/decision-canada/game+Saint+Louis/467...
This poll has the Cons a lot closer than the CROP poll earlier in the month which showed the Cons 20 points behind, and if true, it shows the NDP has barely grown in this riding since 2008 when it got 15%. This may indicate that the NDP is not surging in Montreal as much as other polls show.
It might show that if there were any indication this poll was conducted after the NDP surge started but a careful reading of the story indicates it was conducted "After the Leaders' Debates" which suggests this is a hopelessly old internal poll, being released now to try and change the narrative.
Tue, 2011-04-26 17:32
#14
Stockholm
Here is the thing:
On E-day, when people go to the polls, they don't want to throw away their vote.
If the Greens are polling at 17%, people know they can't win, and put their vote elsewhere.
If however, they are polling at 40%, and can win, people will be less likely to switch.
Of course, I'm sure May knows this, and might well be tempted to give her own numbers a boost in order to show people in the riding that they won't be wasting their vote.
Personally, I think she will have a breakthrough there. All the anti-Conservative vote will coalesce around her.
Tue, 2011-04-26 17:36
#15
I wonder if we will be hearing of a poll saying how the Conservatives are within a hair of knocking out Irwin Cotler in Mount Royal as well (since the National Post decided it was in contention).
True. The Cons claim they will win Mount Royal in this election, and they in particular say the Jewish vote is moving en masse into their column. Even if that were true (and we don't yet know if it is), they seem to forget that only 1/3 of Mount Royal is Jewish. The other 2/3 is composed of anglophones, racial minorities and some francophones. Even if the Cons do well with the Jewish vote, they won't necessarily do well in the rest of the riding.
Tue, 2011-04-26 17:43
#16
At this point I agree any poll done by a candidate will only be released if it is positive. Why else would they release it?
If they have enough money they could do ten polls and release the best one...
Or the poll could be leading...
Or it could oversample a certain demographic...
Tue, 2011-04-26 17:48
#17
The release of polls based on bad science or directly cooked would be the logical next dirty tricks step in this campaign.
The NDP will need to commission some polls of their own and refute the ones that are bogus becuase those polls could move votes around.
Of course if the NDP is planning on this they won't release anything until the last second so that the others cannot put up false polls after to give an impression that is not real.
Tue, 2011-04-26 17:50
#18
Not another Green party "internal poll." This is probably yet another lie. From what I've gathered it isn't going as well as the Greens had hoped for E. May in Saanich Gulf Islands. Too bad, I think the Green party's voice is needed in Parliament.
Here are the details on the Saanich-Gulf Islands poll. I've heard of Oracle, so the poll isn't completely bogus.
A couple of things:
- the poll was done a week ago (Apr. 18-19) before the NDP poll gains in B.C.
- the Table of Contents indicates the Cross-tabs start on page 8, but the last page of the pdf is page 7 - if the Greens want this poll to be taken seriously, they need to release the whole document, not an edited version
Tue, 2011-04-26 17:51
#19
Of course if May actually wanted to motivate people to vote "strategically" for her - she would invent a poll showing her 2 or 3 points BEHIND Lunn and not her being ahead by quite a bit. If i were her, i would want to scare people into thinking that it was really close and that she was slightly behind and needing every possible vote.
Tue, 2011-04-26 17:52
#20
Harris-Decima has released a poll every Monday/Tuesday for some time now. This would be a Conservative polllster. Has anyone seen the April 24th poll?
Tue, 2011-04-26 17:59
#21
Leger poll for Lac. St Louis
Liberals - 36%
Conservatives - 30%
NDP - 17%
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/decision-canada/game+Saint+Louis/467...
This poll has the Cons a lot closer than the CROP poll earlier in the month which showed the Cons 20 points behind, and if true, it shows the NDP has barely grown in this riding since 2008 when it got 15%. This may indicate that the NDP is not surging in Montreal as much as other polls show. This is why I recommended caution on the other thread about the Quebec numbers.
However, this poll may not be entirely accurate either, since it appears to be a poll conducted specifically for Larry Smith's campaign, and as Stockholm correctly points out above, polls that are commissioned by a campaign often tend to have slightly inflated numbers for the person who commissioned the poll.
Also worth noting that this is Anglo Montreal and that the apparent surge in NDP support in Quebec has mostly come from the general direction of the BQ.
Tue, 2011-04-26 18:03
#22
Ekos had the NDP at 45% among anglophones. The NDP candidate in Lac Saint Louis is an engineer and political rookie.
Tue, 2011-04-26 18:08
#23
Point of interest - Lac-Saint-Louis is the successor to Bob Layton's old riding.
Tue, 2011-04-26 18:11
#24
Ekos had the NDP at 45% among anglophones.
Yeah, but the sample size would be small and unreliable. To throw further (random) speculation around, the record of constituency/district/riding/division/etc polls is pretty terrible just about everywhere. There have been some great howlers in Australia over the years.
Tue, 2011-04-26 18:20
#25
Pogo
Regarding Elizabeth May I heard a report on the radio from a community newspaper in the riding. He said that there is tremendous pressure being put on the Liberals and NDP and even Conservatives to vote Green. I think she will win.
As for the Quebec numbers (pretending they are current), what it tells me is that the NDP numbers are not spread but rather concentrating in groups and that the NDP vote is going to coalesce around winnable ridings. Wishful thinking perhaps, but right now there is little hard evidence for any theory so why not pick your favorite.
Tue, 2011-04-26 18:25
#26
A long time ago, I had a candidate running in Saskatoon. A few days before the election, I had a poll done where we chose every 10th name in the phone book who was in our riding. We started at "A" and went to about "G" before we had the number required to have a sample providing a poll which would be "reliable". It showed that we were going to lose by 10% so I thought the candidate was going to lose and made sure that he was not alone throughout any part of the evening and that he was watching the television giving the results with nobody else around. As it turned out, we won by about 10% of the vote. While there was a swing to the NDP in that election in the last week, it was no where near 20%. It was all caused by my picking the beginning of the alphabet and leaving out all the names starting with the end of the alphabet which happened to exclude an ethnic group that voted in high percentage for my candidate.
I have never trusted riding level polls as they are usually commissioned by one party or another. They are interested in figuring out which issues to use in their literature and radio ads. This often leads to "push" polls. There is nothing wrong with them because they do help a campaign try to figure out a way to frame the campaign in order to produce a winning strategy. However, using them to indicate who will win a race, particularly early in a campaign, will often produce a wrong prediction.
Tue, 2011-04-26 18:32
#27
Steve_Shutt
Just got off the phone with a friend of mine who scored tickets to the Habs game in Montreal tonight. (Envy doesn't begin to describe it - not the least of which because my Oil are on the outside looking in - but I digest.)
He is living in Thunder Bay now but has lived in Montreal before.
He can not ever, ever, recall seeing so many NPD signs everywhere.
His highly scientific poll of Montrealers (anglo, franco and allophone; professional and non) are 14-0 Layton (he suspects they haven't a clue who their local candidate might be but they are all pro-Jack).
Only slightly more credible than the E-May poll above, true, but nice to hear in any event.
Tue, 2011-04-26 18:34
#28
Steve_Shutt
Double post.
Tue, 2011-04-26 19:17
#29
Angus Reid
Cons 35%
NDP 30%
Libs 22%
BQ 5%
The beat goes on
Tue, 2011-04-26 19:18
#30
Seen on Twitter - trying to get you a link
Tue, 2011-04-26 19:18
#31
Seen on Twitter - trying to get you a link
Tue, 2011-04-26 19:20
#32
Coming from Robert Fife.
Tue, 2011-04-26 19:23
#33
OMG! This is so great! I can't wait to get the regional details.Angus Reid
Cons 35%
NDP 30%
Libs 22%
BQ 5%
The beat goes on
Tue, 2011-04-26 19:23
#34
Wow the NDP has gone up 16 points in 2 weeks -- only 5 more for first place. 8 points ahead of Liberals
This is 6 days out.
I want to see the regionals on this one-- also leaves 8 points for all others including Greens
Tue, 2011-04-26 19:27
#35
The regionals for that Angus Reid poll should be delicious. If the Alberta, Ontario, and Québec figures are consistent with what you would expect from the current polling status quo, any or all of BC, Saskman and Atlantic Canada could very well see the NDP in a statistical tie for first at the very worst.
Tue, 2011-04-26 19:36
#36
Regarding Elizabeth May I heard a report on the radio from a community newspaper in the riding. He said that there is tremendous pressure being put on the Liberals and NDP and even Conservatives to vote Green. I think she will win.
Who is putting the pressure on them? The Greens? The media?
Tue, 2011-04-26 19:44
#37
Angus Reid
Cons 35%
NDP 30%
Libs 22%
BQ 5%
The beat goes on
There's a blue door and there's an orange door. 
Tue, 2011-04-26 19:47
#38
Speechless.
Waiting to see how The Toronto Star plays this. Or buries it.
Tue, 2011-04-26 19:55
#39
Yesterday we had EKOS only showing a 6% lead.
Today we have Angus Reid only showing a 5% lead
Could the NDP chip away 1% a day for the last 5 days and win the election?
Whose vote is more efficient?
Tue, 2011-04-26 20:00
#40
Is there a link for the Angus Reid?
Tue, 2011-04-26 20:02
#41
Unbelievable. The NDP is blowing up. Go Jack go!
Tue, 2011-04-26 20:03
#42
Yesterday we had EKOS only showing a 6% lead.
Today we have Angus Reid only showing a 5% lead
Could the NDP chip away 1% a day for the last 5 days and win the election?
Whose vote is more efficient?
The tories get alot of Supermajorities in Alberta and other parts out west. This deprives other regions of votes. I don't think the NDP has Supermajorities although I think Mulcair's will be one after this election.
Tue, 2011-04-26 20:07
#43
If we define supermajority as "getting at least twice as many votes as all the other candidates in the riding combined received in 2008", you have Jack Harris (who nearly pulled 75% of the vote). If we loosen that to 60% of the vote, you can add Peter Stoffer (61.4%), and, until her resignation, Judy Wasylycia-Leis (62.6%).
Tue, 2011-04-26 20:13
#44
So, is this the time to start calling on Liberal supporters to "vote tactically"?
Tue, 2011-04-26 20:16
#45
Tue, 2011-04-26 20:17
#46
Yes!!!
Tue, 2011-04-26 20:18
#47
According to twitter reports, the Liberal response is to have ex-Premiers Dosanj and Rae plead with Canadians not to vote NDP. They would rather have the country vote Conservative.
Tue, 2011-04-26 20:21
#48
The seat projections are still wonky in that link. They're projecting the Bloc to still get 36 seats in Quebec and the NDP to get NONE in Sask.
Tue, 2011-04-26 20:22
#49
According to twitter reports, the Liberal response is to have ex-Premiers Dosanj and Rae plead with Canadians not to vote NDP. They would rather have the country vote Conservative.
Are they gonna have Hargrove throw a jacket on Iggy while they're at it?
Tue, 2011-04-26 20:24
#50
Pope Teddywang
http://www.projectdemocracy.ca/saanich-gulf-islands
Project democracy's daily poll has May running consistently third, just behind the Liberals.
Apparently there has been some editorial adjustment in May's favour:
"This riding is not one the model predicts well. The Liberals have a far weaker candidate than Briony Penn this time out, and Elizabeth May has been campaigning hard for a year in the riding...
To account for the May factor and weaker Liberal candiate we are applying an adjustment to the model to reflect these external realities."
This suggests that the unadjusted numbers are even less favourable.
Tue, 2011-04-26 20:29
#51
With the NDP tsunami maybe the NDP will win Saanich Gulf Islands. If Harper is as bad as many people including May make him out to be, everyone should be jumping on the NDP bandwagon now including May.