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Federal polling - April 28
Most Recent polling:
Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc
Apr 28 / Nanos / 36.6% / 30.4% / 21.9% / 6.0% / NDP within 6.2% of first place
Apr 27 / EKOS / 34.0% / 28.1% / 22.9% / 6.6% / NDP within 5.9% of first place
Apr 27 / Forum / 34.0% / 31.0% / 22.0% / / NDP within 3% of first place
Apr 26 / Nanos / 37.8% / 27.8% / 22.9% / 5.8%
Apr 26 / Angus R / 35.0% / 30.0% / 22.0% / 5.0% / NDP within 5% of 1st place
Apr 25 / EKOS / 33.9% / 27.9% / 24.0% / 6.0%
Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28.0% / 23.7% / 6.2%
Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% /
Apr 21 / Envi / 39.0% / 25.0% / 22.0% /
Apr 20 / Ipsos / 43.0% / 24.0% / 21.0% / 6.0%
Apr 16 / Angus R / 36.0% / 25.0% / 25.0% /
Well at least Nanos is now converging with the other pollsters - sure looks like Harper is heading for a train wreck on Monday nite.
Nanos Research - 3 days ending April 27
Tory lead narrows to 6 points, NDP trending up
Cons - 36.6%, Down 1.2% and Down 1.2% from 2008 GE and dropping
NDP - 30.4%, Up 2.6% and Up 12.2% from 2008 GE and rising (only 6.2% out of first place)
Libs - 21.9%, Down 1.0%
Bloc - 6.0%, Up 0.2%
Grn - 4.1%, Down 0.6%
Nanos Regionals - 3 days ending April 27
Tory lead narrows to 6 points, NDP trending up
AT
C - 29.4%
N - 29.2%
L - 33.3%
QC
N - 42.5%
B - 25.1%
L - 15.0%
C - 13.5%
ON
C - 41.1%
N - 26.1%
L - 27.9%
Prairies
C - 53.8%
N - 26.0%
L - 14.6%
BC
C - 45.3%
N - 26.9%
L - 23.1%
Nanos about a week after it happened is finally acknowledging that the NDP surge has now expanded from Quebec and is moving into Ontario - there is something weird about Nanos polling.
I'm an atheist but I am PRAYING that these numbers will be the final result on Monday.
I kind of love that the Cons were so fixated on Ignatieff and the Liberals that they were basically blind-sided by Layton and the NDP. Harper must be thinking, this is not the way it was supposed to go!
I'm an atheist but I am PRAYING that these numbers will be the final result on Monday.
You don't want them to be even better?
I'm an atheist but I am PRAYING that these numbers will be the final result on Monday.
You don't want them to be even better? We've switched places with the Liberals, why not the Conservatives too!
Wouldn't mind seeing the trend continue personally. Beginning to feel a lot like the Ontario provincial election in 1990. Hopefully the NDP don't run out of time to stop Harper from having most seats.
Cannon going down?
Cannon en danger dans Pontiac
http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201104/28/01-43...
I heard yesterday from an NDP organizer in Montreal that the NDP candidate is ahead of Cannon and that Duceppe is in trouble as wee.
I'm an atheist but I am PRAYING that these numbers will be the final result on Monday.
You don't want them to be even better? We've switched places with the Liberals, why not the Conservatives too!
Well,of course.
I'd like to see an NDP majority government.
But that isn't going to happen this election.
You have to celebrate small victories,unfortunately.
I hope Lawrence Cannon is shown the door on Monday.
That'd be sweeeeet!
But if Peter MacKay was defeated,I swear I will strip naked and do cart wheels from here,all the way down Ste-Catherine Street.
I'm an atheist but I am PRAYING that these numbers will be the final result on Monday.
You don't want them to be even better? We've switched places with the Liberals, why not the Conservatives too!
Well,of course.
I'd like to see an NDP majority government.
But that isn't going to happen this election.
You have to celebrate small victories,unfortunately.
Two weeks ago few were seriously predicting even official opposition. This will not be a small victory if these numbers hold. I agree a majority is highly unlikely, and even a plurality unlikely, but the more seats the better, especially if they are gained from the Conservatives.
I'd like to see an NDP majority government.
But that isn't going to happen this election.
You have to celebrate small victories,unfortunately.
Two weeks ago, to me a small victory was losing maybe no more than three seats.
I'm keeping expectations in check, but the stars have aligned in such a strange and marvelous way I'm not saying anything is impossible anymore.
I trust that we can keep to the script. We will humbly accept and pledge to work as hard as we can with the Parlaiment that Canadians elect and try and live up to the aspirations that they have entrusted us with.
Oh, and that would be much easier to do with a Layton as PM.
Thanks for the feedback nicky - ya done good. Keep it up.
I heard yesterday from an NDP organizer in Montreal that the NDP candidate is ahead of Cannon and that Duceppe is in trouble as wee.
A Liberal's lament
Kinsella is dead-on here.
Harper and Ignatieff are too right-wing for most Canadians. Time to throw the bums out.
KCCCC Day 34: Orange Crush - ingredients and nutritional information
http://warrenkinsella.com/2011/04/kcccc-day-34-orange-crush-ingredients-...
26.1% in Ontario, within 2% the Liberals. Fortress Toronto is beginning to look like it's built on sand.
My Canada came through for me. Wowwwwwwwwwwwww. If Harper had won a majority, it would have led to a Canada I no longer recognzed or wanted to be part of. Thank god we've retained our identity. My faith in the Canadan people to do the right thing has been restored and amplified.
BTW, I wonder what Iggy is thinking about "Jack, you'll never be Prime Minister" now? :)
BTW, I wonder what Iggy is thinking about "Jack, you'll never be Prime Minister" now? :)
I am pretty sure that was M. Duceppe. I KNOW he said it, during the French-language debate; not sure if Dr. Ignatieff was as foolish on some other occasion.
Please let's not count our chickens before they are hatched. That would be a huge mistake. Absolutely nothing is assured at this point. We will probably have the most number of very close races we have every seen in Canadian politics.
Iggy was laughing when Duceppe said that
The Conservatives are launching an all-out major assault on the NDP with their fear tactics and their lies, so make sure you phone in to talk shows, write letters to the editors, speak to your family, friends, and co-workers.
NDP's rise continues, Conservative lead shrinks: poll
The New Democrats continue to experience a spike in support and have climbed to within just six percentage points of the frontrunner Conservatives, according to new national poll numbers released Thursday.
The NDP is now solidly in second place, with the support of 30.4 per cent of those polled by Nanos Research over April 24, 26 and 27.
The Conservatives still lead but with just 36.6 per cent support -- the thinnest their lead has been since the campaign began.
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20110428/election-po...
My Tory friend from Ontario thinks voters there will shy away from voting NDP come election day... the Clegg Effect. And that's possible. It also seems Tory insiders are happy where their Ontario numbers are and believe they have a majority even if they suffer loses in BC, the West, and Atlantic Canada. And of course as I said, even if they come up short, I suspect there will be several Liberals willing to cross the floor and give him a parliamentry majority.
Keeping my fingers crossed... but let's not get too excited. 4 days to go and polls can change big time... though if they do, I'm hoping in a positive direction for us.
I've been a New Democrat for exactly 21 years. I'm excited and scared shitless at the same time. Hopefully you'll hear screams of joy from me on election night... and some tears of joy lol
Remember as well that Nanos runs their polls on a 3 day rolling basis -- as a new day's results are added in, the results from 4 days before are taken out of the equation.
That partially explains why Nanos has come later to the game than the other pollsters.
But you can also fiddle with the numbers a little bit and realise that if the numbers are rising so quickly (a 6 point rise for the NDP in 3 days, a 2.5 point drop for the Conservatives in the same period), the most recent day's numbers are probably even more favourable. A rough back of the envelope calculation would suggest that the NDP is ahead of (or tied) with the Conservatives during the most recent day's polling - it would take that kind of improvement to balance out the lower results from a couple of days back.
(And yeah, I get that it isn't necessarily valid or accurate to attempt to cipher out one day's results from a rolling poll based on that kind of calculation, but it sure as hell tells us that the trends are continuing to move in the right direction).
It also seems Tory insiders are happy where their Ontario numbers are and believe they have a majority even if they suffer loses in BC, the West, and Atlantic Canada. And of course as I said, even if they come up short, I suspect there will be several Liberals willing to cross the floor and give him a parliamentry majority.
Harper's very strident attacks on the NDP and the supposed effect an NDP government would have on gas prices today suggest that he and his team are not entirely sanguine about the numbers they're seeing. I've read several articles today claiming that the NDP will "help" deliver a Tory Majority, but then I also read Andrew Coyne's condemnation of the Conservatives as anti-democratic and his declaration that he will be voting Liberal, and it cheered me up, oddly enough. I hope most people vote NDP, and I hope that enough disgusted Conservatives vote Liberal in close Con-Lib races in Ontario that they are held to a minority (or even lose seats!)
The CONservatives had better watch out for ricochets when they are standing in a corner firing blindly.
The one thing that gives me cause for concern in the NDP numbers is that the party's support in the polls is highest among the 18-34 year old age bracket - which is also the demographic least likely to vote. The Tories almost always get a little bit of a ballot box bounce on election day because historically their voters are more likely to turn out. NDP support is also a lot softer than the Tories' or Liberals' - for eg, Angus Reid found that while 71% of NDP respondents were 'committed voters' (ie unlikely to change their minds) the Tories had 84% committed voters.
I will say that younger voters do seem to be somewhat more engaged in this election than elections past (perhaps due to increased awareness of the importance of exercising our democratic rights after the upheavals in Egypt, Libya, Yemen, etc), but it's one thing to tell a pollster that you support Jack Layton and the NDP, and it's another thing to actually get out and vote.
While I take the increased voter turnout at advance polls as a very good sign, I still can't get the spectre of a repeat of what happened to Nick Clegg and the UK LibDems out of my mind. I suspect that some of the more recent attacks may result in a levelling-off of the NDP vote - something similar happened in Ontario in 1990 with the Liberals' last-gasp "Children Would Starve Under the Socialists" ads. Bob Rae wrote in his memoirs that the NDP's overnights had them into the 40s before the ads ran, then falling back slightly at the end of the campaign to the high 30s.
I think others would have to say that-- Layton cannot sound presumptious
We have yet to see the effects of the latest attacks on the NDP, as a result I expect the NDP numbers to drop a bit the polls catch up.
One of the best things that Layton could say right now is that Harper looks like he is running scared. This will seriously de-motivate their base and reverse the whole "bully" effect that Harper has going for him (e.g. strong leader and all that jazz). It would be a credible statement now because of the more than 1000 people that showed up at the Edmonton rally and all the commentary about the Conservatives losing support in BC, Sask, Man, and SW Ontario.
He could say it in a joking way. Seems like Harper's looking a little nervous these days. That would give liberal voters the whiff of victory and conservative voters a cue to jump ship or stay home. It's part of the we've got momentum theme.
Here is the comparison between the two daily tracking polls, by region, and the 2008 election results:
Canada
Nanos (A25-27): Cons - 36.6%, Lib - 21.9%, NDP - 30.4%, BQ - 6.0%, Green - 4.1%, Oth - 1.0%
EKOS (A25-27): Cons - 34.8%, Lib - 22.3%, NDP - 27.5%, BQ - 6.1%, Green - 6.8%, Oth - 2.5%
2008 Election: Cons - 37.7%, Lib - 26.3%, NDP - 18.2%, BQ - 10.0%, Green - 6.8%, Oth - 1.2%
Atlantic
Nanos (A25-27): Cons - 29.4%, Lib - 33.3%, NDP - 29.2%, Green - 5.1%, Oth - 3.0%
EKOS (A25-27): Cons - 28.9%, Lib - 31.5%, NDP - 32.0%, Green - 4.2%, Oth - 3.4%
2008 Election: Cons - 29.6%, Lib - 35.0%, NDP - 26.0%, Green - 6.0%, Oth - 3.3%
Quebec
Nanos (A25-27): BQ - 25.1%, Cons - 13.5%, Lib - 15.0%, NDP - 42.5%, Green - 2.4%, Oth - 1.5%
EKOS (A25-27): BQ - 25.4%, Cons - 13.8%, Lib - 16.7%, NDP - 37.2%, Green - 4.2%, Oth - 2.7%
2008 Election: BQ - 38.1%, Cons - 21.7%, Lib - 23.8%, NDP - 12.2%, Green - 3.5%, Oth - 0.8%
Ontario
Nanos (A25-27): Cons - 41.1%, Lib - 27.9%, NDP - 26.1%, Green - 4.5%, Oth - 0.4%
EKOS (A25-27): Cons - 39.9%, Lib - 28.4%, NDP - 22.8%, Green - 6.5%, Oth - 2.4%
2008 Election: Cons - 39.2%, Lib - 33.8%, NDP - 18.2%, Green - 8.0%, Oth - 0.8%
Prairies
Nanos (A25-27): Cons - 53.8%, Lib - 14.6%, NDP - 26.0%, Green - 4.9%, Oth - 0.7%
2008 Election: Cons - 59.2%, Lib - 13.7%, NDP - 17.6%, Green - 7.7%, Oth - 1.8%
Man./Sask.
EKOS (A25-27): Cons - 46.2%, Lib - 19.4%, NDP - 27.3%, Green - 5.7%, Oth - 1.4%
2008 Election: Cons - 59.2%, Lib - 13.7%, NDP - 17.6%, Green - 7.7%, Oth - 1.8%
Alberta
EKOS (A25-27): Cons - 60.8%, Lib - 11.6%, NDP - 17.8%, Green - 8.1%, Oth - 1.7%
2008 Election: Cons - 59.2%, Lib - 13.7%, NDP - 17.6%, Green - 7.7%, Oth - 1.8%
BC
Nanos (A25-27): Cons - 45.3%, Lib - 23.1%, NDP - 26.9%, Green - 4.1%, Oth - 0.6%
EKOS (A25-27): Cons - 35.7%, Lib - 19.5%, NDP - 28.6%, Green - 13.4%, Oth - 2.8%
2008 Election: Cons - 44.5%, Lib - 19.3%, NDP - 26.1%, Green - 9.4%, Oth - 0.8%
Our root beer loving leader is dismissing the NDP.
More signs that the NDP surge is for real.
BTW...I'm becoming prouder with every election of being a Quebecker.
Looks like the 'Tories' will only finish ahead of the Greens here..LOL!!
That's a huge difference between 35% and 45% for the Conservatives in BC. There's five to ten seats in question there.
Nick Clegg was a new guy in Britian. I think Canadians are more familar with Jack Layton..and Jack didnt get a boost from the debate like Nick Clegg did, it was from the fact that people really like Jack and trust him and are against Harper..
not alot of Brits were against David Cameron during last year's election..i think it was very different than the one we will have in canada.
Cameron even had some traditional Labour supporters eating out of his hand.
Really,what happened to the British Labour Party is what happened to Canada's Liberal Party.
Layton didn't just appear from nowhere.
Today's Harris-Decima poll has CPC 35, NDP 30, LIB 22. CP story here.
NDP leads CPC by 1 among women voters.
NDP leads BQ in Quebec, 44-22 (!)
The one thing that seems wonky is that they show Ontario as Lib 34, CPC 33 and NDP 25. Those numbers seem inconsistent with all the other polls, and since total sample size is only 1,000, the regionals have a high margin of error.
I will say that if the Libs manage to outpoll or tie the Tories in Ontario, they will hang on to the bulk of their seats (and will likely snatch a few from the Tories), and they may yet have a shot at remaining Official Opposition.
Does anyone have a link to the regional numbers? Was there any mention of the Prairies? And what about the NDP's number in Ontario - 25 is better than it used to be, but does it imply any gains?
Today's Harris-Decima poll has CPC 35, NDP 30, LIB 22. CP story here.
Articles says theres a two point gap between the CONS and NDP in BC.
FFS, I have no idea whats happening here. NDP could have two more seats or a dozen.
If that's really the case it would be a massive victory for the NDP in BC as the Conservatives have a big Alberta-style overvote in some of their ridings.
LAYTON KEEP MOVING UP
CLEARLY #1
NANOS
Layton
95.3
+9.1
Harper
83.2
+0.5
Ignatieff
34.3
-5.8
Duceppe
14.2
+3.6
May
8.6
-3.4
The one thing that seems wonky is that they show Ontario as Lib 34, CPC 33 and NDP 25. Those numbers seem inconsistent with all the other polls, and since total sample size is only 1,000, the regionals have a high margin of error.
Yeah, the Lib/Con numbers really seem out of whack there. But, in terms of their overall numbers, next to EKOS, H/D was the pollster closest to the mark in '08.
Most Recent federal Canadawide polling:
Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc
Apr 28 / Harris D / 35% / 30% / 22% / NDP within 5% of first place
Apr 28 / EKOS / 34.8% / 27.5% / 22.3% / 6.1%
Apr 28 / Nanos / 36.6% / 30.4% / 21.9% / 6.0% / NDP within 6.2% of first place
Apr 27 / EKOS / 34.0% / 28.1% / 22.9% / 6.6% / NDP within 5.9% of first place
Apr 27 / Forum / 34.0% / 31.0% / 22.0% / / NDP within 3% of first place
Apr 26 / Nanos / 37.8% / 27.8% / 22.9% / 5.8%
Apr 26 / Angus R / 35.0% / 30.0% / 22.0% / 5.0% / NDP within 5% of 1st place
Apr 25 / EKOS / 33.9% / 27.9% / 24.0% / 6.0%
Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28.0% / 23.7% / 6.2%
Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% /
Apr 21 / Envi / 39.0% / 25.0% / 22.0% /
Apr 20 / Ipsos / 43.0% / 24.0% / 21.0% / 6.0%
Apr 16 / Angus R / 36.0% / 25.0% / 25.0% /
Leadership Index - what wins elections
Obviously one shoe has dropped, it is now just a matter of time for the other shoe to drop. I forecast the NDP will very shortly lead the Cons in the polls.
Date / Pollster / Layton / Harper / Ignatieff
Apr 28 / Nanos / 95.3 / 83.2 / 34.3
Apr 27 / Ipsos-Reid / 45% / 42% / 13%
Apr 27 / Forum / 33% / 32% / 14%
Apr 27 / Nanos / 86.2 / 82.7 / 40.1
Has anyone looked at the polling dates for Harris Decima? Some of the data might be quite dated compared to some of the other pollsters, and is not taking into acount the recent NDP increases and the Cons decreases.
Perhaps Harris Decima polls should be Cons - 33%, NDP - 32%, Libs - who cares?
Perhaps Harris Decima polls should be Cons - 33%, NDP - 32%, Libs - who cares?
Actually after having had that line thrown at me as an NDP voter for forty years I don't find the joke particularly funny. I was hoping we would not be as arrogantly dismissive of 20% to 25% of the voters as other s have been of the NDP. I thought we were better than our opponents.
A rough back of the envelope calculation would suggest that the NDP is ahead of (or tied) with the Conservatives during the most recent day's polling - it would take that kind of improvement to balance out the lower results from a couple of days back.
In yesterday's Globe, John Duffy said that the NANOS one day numbers from Tuesday's calling had the NDP at 36.2 and the Cons at 35.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS (through Apr 28)
See http://democraticspace.com/canada2011/ds-projections.pdf to download PDF of riding-by-riding projections.
CANADA
CPC – avg 146 seats (37.2%) – low 131 (35.7%), high 169 (38.7%)
NDP – avg 74 (27.8%) – low 45 (26.3%), high 108 (29.3%)
LPC – avg 63 (22.6%) – low 43 (21.1%), high 75 (24.1%)
BQ – avg 24 (6.2%) – low 5 (4.7%), high 37 (7.7%)
GPC – avg 0 (5.0%) – low 0 (3.5%), high 1 (6.5%)
OTH – avg 1 (1.0%)
ONTARIO
CPC – avg 55 seats (40.4%) – low 50 (38.9%), high 65 (41.9%)
NDP – avg 18 (23.0%) – low 17 (21.5%), high 19 (26.0%)
LPC – avg 34 (30.8%) – low 23 (29.3%), high 40 (32.3%)
GPC – avg 0 (4.8%) – low 0 (3.3%), high 0 (6.3%)
QUEBEC
BQ – avg 24 seats (26.5%) – low 5 (25.0%), high 37 (28.0%)
CPC – avg 8 (16.6%) – low 6 (15.1%), high 10 (18.1%)
NDP – avg 31 (37.4%) – low 17 (35.9%), high 58 (38.9%)
LPC – avg 11 (16.8%) – low 6 (15.3%), high 13 (18.3%)
GPC – avg 0 (1.8%) – low 0 (0.3%), high 0 (3.3%)
OTH – avg 1 (0.8%)
BRITISH COLUMBIA
CPC – avg 22 seats (42.9%) – low 17 (41.4%), high 26 (44.4%)
NDP – avg 11 (29.7%) – low 9 (28.2%), high 14 (31.2%)
LPC – avg 3 (17.4%) – low 2 (15.9%), high 4 (18.9%)
GPC – avg 0 (9.3%) – low 0 (7.8%), high 1 (10.8%)
ALBERTA
CPC – avg 27 seats (63.0%) – low 27 (61.5%), high 28 (64.5%)
NDP – avg 1 (16.8%) – low 0 (15.3%), high 1 (18.3%)
LPC – avg 0 (11.0%) – low 0 (9.5%), high 0 (12.5%)
GPC – avg 0 (6.8%) – low 0 (5.3%), high 0 (8.3%)
PRAIRIES
CPC – avg 21 seats (51.0%) – low 20 (49.5%), high 23 (52.5%)
NDP – avg 5 (28.4%) – low 4 (26.9%), high 6 (29.9%)
LPC – avg 2 (16.0%) – low 1 (14.5%), high 2 (17.5%)
GPC – avg 0 (3.8%) – low 0 (2.3%), high 0 (5.3%)
ATLANTIC CANADA
CPC – avg 13 (34.2%) – low 11 (32.7%), high 15 (35.7%)
NDP – avg 7 (29.9%) – low 5 (28.4%), high 8 (31.4%)
LPC – avg 12 seats (32.0%) – low 10 (30.5%), high 15 (33.5%)
GPC – avg 0 (3.9%) – low 0 (2.4%), high 0 (5.4%)
NORTH
CPC – avg 1 seat (33.3%) – low 0 (31.8%), high 2 (34.8%)
NDP – avg 1 (33.9%) – low 0 (32.4%), high 2 (35.4%)
LPC – avg 1 (25.6%) – low 1 (24.1%), high 1 (27.1%)
GPC – avg 0 (6.6%) – low 0 (5.1%), high 0 (8.1%)
Perhaps Harris Decima polls should be Cons - 33%, NDP - 32%, Libs - who cares?
Actually after having had that line thrown at me as an NDP voter for forty years I don't find the joke particularly funny. I was hoping we would not be as arrogantly dismissive of 20% to 25% of the voters as other s have been of the NDP. I thought we were better than our opponents.
Agreed. Time for some modesty, before we're humbled for presumption.
Look, Layton and the party is being hit mercilessly now from all sides, and I think we can expect to see our numbers dip before the polling ban. Then it's a goddamn long weekend.
Perhaps Harris Decima polls should be Cons - 33%, NDP - 32%, Libs - who cares?
Actually after having had that line thrown at me as an NDP voter for forty years I don't find the joke particularly funny. I was hoping we would not be as arrogantly dismissive of 20% to 25% of the voters as other s have been of the NDP. I thought we were better than our opponents.
Thanks for this
I hope the NDP supporters here will not have to relearn humility
I think we also have to recognize that votes may be being lent to us and we may have an opportunity to earn them.
PR is a big one -- I expect we will take half of the support that would otherwise have gone to the Greens in the hope of us bringing in PR.